Battle: Dar es Salaam vs Nairobi

Battle: Dar es Salaam vs Nairobi

stakehigh said:
Ya uganda its much better as wataanza kuvuna ela za eacop mwaka huu, there will be a relief ya kenya mkopo wao uko mwishon kukubaliwa nadhan mpaka mwezi ujao utakua ushafika
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Key differences:
Kenya relies more heavily on borrowing to finance the budget gap. A large part goes toward refinancing existing debt and debt service.

Tanzania also borrows, but it has been financing more of its budget through domestic revenue growth and concessional financing, while keeping development spending high.
Uganda uses borrowing more selectively, but debt servicing has increased due to accumulated obligations and infrastructure borrowing.
:
1. Kenya — highest dependence on loans
2. Tanzania — moderate dependence
3. Uganda — lower dependence relative to budget size

The important comparison is that Tanzania's borrowing is more associated with financing capital projects (railways, energy, infrastructure), while Kenya's borrowing is heavily affected by debt refinancing and recurrent budget pressures.
 
concordile 101 said:
Key differences:
Kenya relies more heavily on borrowing to finance the budget gap. A large part goes toward refinancing existing debt and debt service.

Tanzania also borrows, but it has been financing more of its budget through domestic revenue growth and concessional financing, while keeping development spending high.
Uganda uses borrowing more selectively, but debt servicing has increased due to accumulated obligations and infrastructure borrowing.
:
1. Kenya — highest dependence on loans
2. Tanzania — moderate dependence
3. Uganda — lower dependence relative to budget size

The important comparison is that Tanzania's borrowing is more associated with financing capital projects (railways, energy, infrastructure), while Kenya's borrowing is heavily affected by debt refinancing and recurrent budget pressures.
Click to expand...
Borrowing to finance the budget which also has 50% set aside to service the same borrowing 🤣🤣🤣 are we missing something here
 
stakehigh said:
WRONG
Exchange rate is an AGREED price BY the banks not for the economy but for the BANKS to do an agreed exchange transaction with you, haina uhusiano na uchumi, its called EXCHANGE RATE


Exchange rates are highly influenced by exports, the more you export the less your currency becomes valuable because it becomes cheap for other nations to buy things from your country! However this value is purely manually and has nothing to do with the economy, some notable countries such as china, annually devalue their currency so as to ensure the exports are always matching the global economy
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"Ndugu yangu stakehigh , nashukuru sana kwa maoni yako na mchango wako kwenye post yangu. Ni furaha kuona watanzania tunajadili mada hizi nzito za kiuchumi. Hata hivyo, naomba nifafanue muktadha wa post yangu ili kuondoa sintofahamu ya jinsi kanuni hizi zinavyofanya kazi katika ngazi ya kitaifa.

Unaposema kuwa Exchange Rate ni makubaliano tu ya mabenki (agreed price) na haina uhusiano na uchumi, hapo unazungumzia 'Retail Spread' au viwango vidogo vya biashara vya mabenki ya biashara wanavyompa mteja mmoja mmoja madirishani. Lakini katika uchumi mkuu wa nchi (Macroeconomics), mabenki hayo ya biashara hayawezi kukaa chini na kujipangia bei ya Dola kutoka hewani; yanalazimika kufuata viwango vinavyotokana na Soko la Pamoja la Mabenki (Interbank Foreign Exchange Market - IFEM).

Soko hili la IFEM linaendeshwa kikamilifu na kanuni ya Ugavi na Mahitaji (Supply and Demand) niliyoyaeleza kwenye post yangu. Benki zitapata wapi Dola za kukubaliana na wewe kama nchi haina Dola kwenye kapu lake? Ndio maana nikaeleza kuwa, nchini Tanzania, mahitaji ya Dola ni makubwa kwa sababu serikali na wakandarasi wanatafuta Dola hizo sokoni kwenda kununulia vifaa vya SGR na Miradi mingine mikubwa inayoendelea Tanzania. Huu uagizaji wa vifaa vya miundombinu ndio unaotengeneza 'Demand' kubwa ya Dola na kuifanya Shilingi yetu ishuke kwa utaratibu (Orderly Depreciation). Hili ni jambo la kiuchumi thabiti na lina uhusiano wa 100% na thamani ya sarafu yetu.

Kuhusu hoja yako ya pili kuwa mauzo ya nje (Exports) yanashusha thamani ya sarafu, kiuchumi ni kinyume chake. Nchi inapouza bidhaa nyingi nje ya nchi, wanunuzi wa kigeni wanalazimika kutafuta sarafu ya nchi hiyo (kama Shilingi) ili kuwalipa wazalishaji wetu wa ndani. Kitendo hiki kinaongeza uhitaji (Demand) wa Shilingi sokoni duniani, na kanuni ya Supply and Demand inasema kitu kikiwa na mahitaji makubwa, bei au thamani yake inapanda (Appreciation) na sio kushuka.

Mfano ulioutoa kuhusu China unaitwa kitaalamu 'Managed Float' au 'Fixed Currency Pegging'. China inashusha thamani ya Yuan kwa makusudi kupitia Benki Kuu yao (PBOC) ili kulinda ushindani wa viwanda vyao, lakini hiyo ni sera ya makusudi ya kiserikali inayofanyika kwasababu wana akiba kubwa sana ya Dola (zaidi ya $Trilioni 3) inayowapa ubavu huo. Hapa Afrika Mashariki tunaishi kwenye mfumo wa soko huria la sarafu (Floating Exchange Rate), ambapo sarafu zetu zinategemea Dola halisi zinazoingia na kutoka kwenye uchumi wetu kila siku.

Ndio maana nikahitimisha kwa kuonyesha kuwa, utulivu wa sasa wa sarafu ya Kenya si wa nguvu ya uzalishaji wa ndani, bali ni matokeo ya dharura ya mikopo mikubwa ya IMF na riba kubwa za CBK zilizosimamisha uagizaji wa bidhaa kwa muda (Artificial Stability). Haya yote ni mambo ya kiuchumi yanayoamua bei ambayo mabenki unayosema wewe wanakuuzia Dola madirishani.

Lengo la post yangu halikuwa kuangalia miamala ya ndani ya benki na mteja, bali ni kuonyesha jinsi miradi mikubwa ya maendeleo ya Tanzania na sera za mikopo za Kenya zinavyovuta au kusukuma viwango hivi vya fedha.

Natumai ufafanuzi huu unasaidia kuweka context sawa, na niko tayari kuendelea kujifunza pamoja nawe.

MUNGU IBARIKI TANZANIA NA WATU WAKE​
 
Much overdue
Upgrade, New Terminal, New Runway..
Phewks!

View: https://x.com/moneyacademyke/status/2064972364257919128?s=46
IMG_0874.jpeg
 
President of China said:
"Ndugu yangu stakehigh , nashukuru sana kwa maoni yako na mchango wako kwenye post yangu. Ni furaha kuona watanzania tunajadili mada hizi nzito za kiuchumi. Hata hivyo, naomba nifafanue muktadha wa post yangu ili kuondoa sintofahamu ya jinsi kanuni hizi zinavyofanya kazi katika ngazi ya kitaifa.

Unaposema kuwa Exchange Rate ni makubaliano tu ya mabenki (agreed price) na haina uhusiano na uchumi, hapo unazungumzia 'Retail Spread' au viwango vidogo vya biashara vya mabenki ya biashara wanavyompa mteja mmoja mmoja madirishani. Lakini katika uchumi mkuu wa nchi (Macroeconomics), mabenki hayo ya biashara hayawezi kukaa chini na kujipangia bei ya Dola kutoka hewani; yanalazimika kufuata viwango vinavyotokana na Soko la Pamoja la Mabenki (Interbank Foreign Exchange Market - IFEM).

Soko hili la IFEM linaendeshwa kikamilifu na kanuni ya Ugavi na Mahitaji (Supply and Demand) niliyoyaeleza kwenye post yangu. Benki zitapata wapi Dola za kukubaliana na wewe kama nchi haina Dola kwenye kapu lake? Ndio maana nikaeleza kuwa, nchini Tanzania, mahitaji ya Dola ni makubwa kwa sababu serikali na wakandarasi wanatafuta Dola hizo sokoni kwenda kununulia vifaa vya SGR na Miradi mingine mikubwa inayoendelea Tanzania. Huu uagizaji wa vifaa vya miundombinu ndio unaotengeneza 'Demand' kubwa ya Dola na kuifanya Shilingi yetu ishuke kwa utaratibu (Orderly Depreciation). Hili ni jambo la kiuchumi thabiti na lina uhusiano wa 100% na thamani ya sarafu yetu.

Kuhusu hoja yako ya pili kuwa mauzo ya nje (Exports) yanashusha thamani ya sarafu, kiuchumi ni kinyume chake. Nchi inapouza bidhaa nyingi nje ya nchi, wanunuzi wa kigeni wanalazimika kutafuta sarafu ya nchi hiyo (kama Shilingi) ili kuwalipa wazalishaji wetu wa ndani. Kitendo hiki kinaongeza uhitaji (Demand) wa Shilingi sokoni duniani, na kanuni ya Supply and Demand inasema kitu kikiwa na mahitaji makubwa, bei au thamani yake inapanda (Appreciation) na sio kushuka.

Mfano ulioutoa kuhusu China unaitwa kitaalamu 'Managed Float' au 'Fixed Currency Pegging'. China inashusha thamani ya Yuan kwa makusudi kupitia Benki Kuu yao (PBOC) ili kulinda ushindani wa viwanda vyao, lakini hiyo ni sera ya makusudi ya kiserikali inayofanyika kwasababu wana akiba kubwa sana ya Dola (zaidi ya $Trilioni 3) inayowapa ubavu huo. Hapa Afrika Mashariki tunaishi kwenye mfumo wa soko huria la sarafu (Floating Exchange Rate), ambapo sarafu zetu zinategemea Dola halisi zinazoingia na kutoka kwenye uchumi wetu kila siku.

Ndio maana nikahitimisha kwa kuonyesha kuwa, utulivu wa sasa wa sarafu ya Kenya si wa nguvu ya uzalishaji wa ndani, bali ni matokeo ya dharura ya mikopo mikubwa ya IMF na riba kubwa za CBK zilizosimamisha uagizaji wa bidhaa kwa muda (Artificial Stability). Haya yote ni mambo ya kiuchumi yanayoamua bei ambayo mabenki unayosema wewe wanakuuzia Dola madirishani.

Lengo la post yangu halikuwa kuangalia miamala ya ndani ya benki na mteja, bali ni kuonyesha jinsi miradi mikubwa ya maendeleo ya Tanzania na sera za mikopo za Kenya zinavyovuta au kusukuma viwango hivi vya fedha.

Natumai ufafanuzi huu unasaidia kuweka context sawa, na niko tayari kuendelea kujifunza pamoja nawe.

MUNGU IBARIKI TANZANIA NA WATU WAKE​
Click to expand...


Again your wrong! So here is how it works,
first there is nothing like supply and demand kwenye currencies because they are all FREE FLOATING, if you send pesa kulipia chochote nje, that bank doesnt need kua na akaunti yoyote ya dola kufanikisha huo mwamala


You see the problem we have is, there is something your rarely hear but its the most important part! The global banking system works only because of FAITH and not because there is any true money in it



Serikali inapotaka kufanya malipo ya huduma kwenda nje, it doesnt just use foreign currencies as you might think because the truth is that money doesnt exist at all, I understand where your getting all the info but they are barely true and rarely make the surface of what actually happens


Here is how it happens, i will explain to you in practical as i have worked as an EX CHEQUER manager before BOT
There are 2 types of transactions first: we have the common commercial transactions which all citizens do, lets say you send money to someone abroad which are all settled by commercial banks without any problem as they only need to balance the TRADE SHEET at the end of the day but now we have bulk transactions(the government ones)


Lets say the government wants to buy new SGR trains, what they will do is, hio kampuni inaopokea malipo ya hizo wagons wataenda kwenye central bank yao alafu watashare something called a SWIFT CODE with tanzania, and then we will make a SWIFT message to them that we are paying you this amount please receive it, and thats all how the other side receives money(no backing, no checking ledgers just a simple message with cryptographic signature) and your done, thats how the whole world economies work
You might as well be confused how comes kenya has low exports but still always pay for its imports, this is exactly what happens



Comming to the exchange rates now: Remember when i told you when you send money as an individual they are all settled by the commercial banks? now there is where we get the exchange rates! First banks trade with each other all the time because if tanzania and kenya traded one of the country will have a surplus, but now the problem is as a tanzania bank, i dont want to hold KSH because what am i going to do with it? will i lend KSh to tanzania citizens? ofcourse not, can i send it back to kenya for exchange with tanzania money? impossible because all the money is used up and i am holding the surplus, so what can i do? ................

Thats where we get exchange rates from, so i will increase or decrease the rates so balance my books, meaning if tanzania is selling more to kenya then i will have to lower the rate for the kenyans to have access to more tanzania funds in return i will also make money from the transactions, if tanzania buys more from me then eventually the banks will do the same, Again i understand where your getting the info from but in real it doesnt work that way, the exchange rate is only there to balance the trading books
 
stakehigh said:
Again your wrong! So here is how it works,
first there is nothing like supply and demand kwenye currencies because they are all FREE FLOATING, if you send pesa kulipia chochote nje, that bank doesnt need kua na akaunti yoyote ya dola kufanikisha huo mwamala


You see the problem we have is, there is something your rarely hear but its the most important part! The global banking system works only because of FAITH and not because there is any true money in it



Serikali inapotaka kufanya malipo ya huduma kwenda nje, it doesnt just use foreign currencies as you might think because the truth is that money doesnt exist at all, I understand where your getting all the info but they are barely true and rarely make the surface of what actually happens


Here is how it happens, i will explain to you in practical as i have worked as an EX CHEQUER manager before BOT
There are 2 types of transactions first: we have the common commercial transactions which all citizens do, lets say you send money to someone abroad which are all settled by commercial banks without any problem as they only need to balance the TRADE SHEET at the end of the day but now we have bulk transactions(the government ones)


Lets say the government wants to buy new SGR trains, what they will do is, hio kampuni inaopokea malipo ya hizo wagons wataenda kwenye central bank yao alafu watashare something called a SWIFT CODE with tanzania, and then we will make a SWIFT message to them that we are paying you this amount please receive it, and thats all how the other side receives money(no backing, no checking ledgers just a simple message with cryptographic signature) and your done, thats how the whole world economies work
You might as well be confused how comes kenya has low exports but still always pay for its imports, this is exactly what happens



Comming to the exchange rates now: Remember when i told you when you send money as an individual they are all settled by the commercial banks? now there is where we get the exchange rates! First banks trade with each other all the time because if tanzania and kenya traded one of the country will have a surplus, but now the problem is as a tanzania bank, i dont want to hold KSH because what am i going to do with it? will i lend KSh to tanzania citizens? ofcourse not, can i send it back to kenya for exchange with tanzania money? impossible because all the money is used up and i am holding the surplus, so what can i do? ................

Thats where we get exchange rates from, so i will increase or decrease the rates so balance my books, meaning if tanzania is selling more to kenya then i will have to lower the rate for the kenyans to have access to more tanzania funds in return i will also make money from the transactions, if tanzania buys more from me then eventually the banks will do the same, Again i understand where your getting the info from but in real it doesnt work that way, the exchange rate is only there to balance the trading books
Click to expand...
Ndugu yangu stakehigh, nimeisoma comment yako kwa umakini mkubwa sana, na ninaheshimu sana uzoefu wako wa kikazi ulioutaja katika masuala ya Exchequer na mifumo ya kibenki. Maelezo yako kuhusu ujumbe wa SWIFT na jinsi mabenki yavyooanisha vitabu vyao vya biashara (Balancing Trading Books) ni sahihi kabisa kwa upande wa Uendeshaji wa Kibenki (Banking Operations and Messaging Protocols).

Hata hivyo, naomba nikuonyeshe ni wapi nadharia ya Uchumi Mkuu (Macroeconomics) na Uendeshaji wa Kibenki unavyokutana, kwa sababu hapo ndipo kiini cha post yangu kilipo.

1. Kuhusu SWIFT na Uhalisia wa Dola (The Settlement Reality)
Ni kweli kabisa kama ulivyosema, mfumo wa dunia unategemea imani (Faith/Fiat System) na SWIFT ni ujumbe wa kielektroniki wenye saini ya kiusalama (Cryptographic Signature). Lakini ujumbe huo wa SWIFT ukisema 'Tanzania inalipa Dola Milioni 100 kwa ajili ya mabehewa ya SGR', malipo hayo hayaishii kwenye ujumbe tu. Kuna hatua inaitwa Settlement - Mawasilisho Halisi.

Benki Kuu ya nchi inayopokea fedha hizo haiwezi kukubali ule ujumbe kama karatasi tupu; lazima kiasi hicho cha Dola kihame kutoka kwenye Akaunti ya Uagizaji ya Tanzania (Nostro Account) iliyopo Benki Kuu ya Marekani (Federal Reserve) au mabenki makuu ya kimataifa, kwenda kwenye akaunti ya nchi inayouza. Kama Tanzania haina hizo Dola halisi (Foreign Reserves) kwenye akaunti zake za nje, ule ujumbe wa SWIFT utakataliwa kwa sababu hauna 'Settlement Liquidity'. Ndio maana hapo ndipo 'Supply' ya Dola inapohusika moja kwa moja.

2. Maana ya Free Floating na Supply and Demand
Umesema kuwa hakuna kitu kama Supply na Demand kwenye sarafu kwa sababu zote ni Free Floating. Hapa kuna mkanganyiko mdogo wa kimsingi wa kiuchumi. Tafsiri halisi ya sarafu kuwa 'Free Floating' ni kwamba thamani yake haipangwi na serikali, bali inaamuliwa na nguvu za soko ambazo ni Supply na Demand.

Kama nchi yetu inaagiza vitu vingi nje (Miundombinu ya SGR, Gridi, Mafuta), mahitaji yetu ya Dola yanakuwa makubwa kuliko Dola zinazoingia. Hata kama mabenki ya biashara yanabadilisha viwango ili 'kubalance vitabu vyao' (kama ulivyoeleza vizuri), mabenki hayo yanalazimika kupandisha bei ya Dola kwa sababu yanajua Dola zilizopo sokoni ni chache kuliko idadi ya wateja (serikali na sekta binafsi) wanaozihitaji kwa ajili ya kulipia bidhaa nje ya nchi. Hiyo ndiyo 'Demand and Supply' yenyewe inayozalisha viwango hivyo vya Exchange Rate.

3. Balancing the Books na Exchange Rate
Mfano ulioutoa kuhusu mabenki ya Tanzania na Kenya kuwianisha vitabu vyao vya biashara ni mfano mzuri sana wa ngazi ya chini (Micro-level). Ulisema:
If Tanzania is selling more to Kenya, then I will have to lower the rate for Kenyans...'.
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Ukweli huu unaoueleza ndio unaothibitisha hoja yangu! Kitendo cha Tanzania kuuza zaidi Kenya maana yake ni kwamba Tanzania inafanya Exports kubwa. Na kitendo cha benki kulazimika kubadilisha viwango ili kusawazisha akaunti hizo, ndio soko linavyojirekebisha kulingana na kiasi cha fedha kilichopo (Supply).

Mwisho, Post yangu ya awali haikuwa inapingana na uzoefu wako wa jinsi mifumo ya SWIFT inavyorusha ujumbe au jinsi wahasibu wa kibenki wanavyofunga mahesabu jioni. Post yangu iliangalia picha kubwa (Macro picture):

Je, kwanini soko la jumla la fedha (Interbank Market) linaelekea upande mmoja kwa sasa yaani Tanzania kuhistaji sana dollar? Linaelekea huko kwa sababu miradi mikubwa ya maendeleo inavuta Dola nyingi kutoka kwenye hifadhi yetu, wakati Kenya imepunguza presha hiyo kwa kuingiza mabilioni ya Dola za mikopo kutoka IMF na kupandisha riba ili kuzuia usafirishaji wa fedha nje.

Maelezo yako ya kifedha ni ya ndani ya mfumo (Operational), lakini maelezo yangu ni ya kiuchumi wa soko (Economic Forces). Mifumo yote miwili inategemana. Nafurahia sana mjadala huu na wewe kwani unawasaidia watanzania wengi wanaoandamana nasi kuelewa jinsi nchi yetu inavyoendesha mambo yake ya fedha ndani na nje.

UHASIBU VS UCHUMI
MUNGU IBARIKI TANZANIA NA WATU WAKE - KARIBU​
 
AMARII said:
Mchina ameshachukua Airport huko makao makuu ya slums Duniani.

Tusubirie maandamano.... Tetesi ni gharama zitaongezeka kwa wasafiri watakao tumia huo uwanja ili kulipa mkopo wa Mchina. Kitu ambacho wata default kama SGR yao ya teknolojia ya kale.
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Una source ya hio habari? Kabla ya kuanza kurusha missiles.
 
stakehigh said:

View: https://x.com/Uchumi360/status/2064964591117836558?s=20
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Is this Same account that always feeds your delusions and mentions everything wrong with kenya and everything going right in Tanzania? You will think it’s owned by Tanzania propagandist government.
Btw I have never seen a Kenyan based media platform so obsessed with Kenya going the right way, you would be cancelled in Kenya for praising Kenya like this 😅


View: https://x.com/uchumi360/status/2064964591117836558?s=46

View: https://x.com/uchumi360/status/2063594878467015039?s=46

View: https://x.com/uchumi360/status/2063872458512310463?s=46

View: https://x.com/uchumi360/status/2063875756812312745?s=46

View: https://x.com/uchumi360/status/2061311781218504960?s=46
 
AMARII said:
Mchina ameshachukua Airport huko makao makuu ya slums Duniani.

Tusubirie maandamano.... Tetesi ni gharama zitaongezeka kwa wasafiri watakao tumia huo uwanja ili kulipa mkopo wa Mchina. Kitu ambacho wata default kama SGR yao ya teknolojia ya kale.
Click to expand...
Wapi huko?
 
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