Battle: Dar es Salaam vs Nairobi

Battle: Dar es Salaam vs Nairobi

Ndugu yangu stakehigh, nimeisoma comment yako kwa umakini mkubwa sana, na ninaheshimu sana uzoefu wako wa kikazi ulioutaja katika masuala ya Exchequer na mifumo ya kibenki. Maelezo yako kuhusu ujumbe wa SWIFT na jinsi mabenki yavyooanisha vitabu vyao vya biashara (Balancing Trading Books) ni sahihi kabisa kwa upande wa Uendeshaji wa Kibenki (Banking Operations and Messaging Protocols).

Hata hivyo, naomba nikuonyeshe ni wapi nadharia ya Uchumi Mkuu (Macroeconomics) na Uendeshaji wa Kibenki unavyokutana, kwa sababu hapo ndipo kiini cha post yangu kilipo.

1. Kuhusu SWIFT na Uhalisia wa Dola (The Settlement Reality)
Ni kweli kabisa kama ulivyosema, mfumo wa dunia unategemea imani (Faith/Fiat System) na SWIFT ni ujumbe wa kielektroniki wenye saini ya kiusalama (Cryptographic Signature). Lakini ujumbe huo wa SWIFT ukisema 'Tanzania inalipa Dola Milioni 100 kwa ajili ya mabehewa ya SGR', malipo hayo hayaishii kwenye ujumbe tu. Kuna hatua inaitwa Settlement - Mawasilisho Halisi.

Benki Kuu ya nchi inayopokea fedha hizo haiwezi kukubali ule ujumbe kama karatasi tupu; lazima kiasi hicho cha Dola kihame kutoka kwenye Akaunti ya Uagizaji ya Tanzania (Nostro Account) iliyopo Benki Kuu ya Marekani (Federal Reserve) au mabenki makuu ya kimataifa, kwenda kwenye akaunti ya nchi inayouza. Kama Tanzania haina hizo Dola halisi (Foreign Reserves) kwenye akaunti zake za nje, ule ujumbe wa SWIFT utakataliwa kwa sababu hauna 'Settlement Liquidity'. Ndio maana hapo ndipo 'Supply' ya Dola inapohusika moja kwa moja.

2. Maana ya Free Floating na Supply and Demand
Umesema kuwa hakuna kitu kama Supply na Demand kwenye sarafu kwa sababu zote ni Free Floating. Hapa kuna mkanganyiko mdogo wa kimsingi wa kiuchumi. Tafsiri halisi ya sarafu kuwa 'Free Floating' ni kwamba thamani yake haipangwi na serikali, bali inaamuliwa na nguvu za soko ambazo ni Supply na Demand.

Kama nchi yetu inaagiza vitu vingi nje (Miundombinu ya SGR, Gridi, Mafuta), mahitaji yetu ya Dola yanakuwa makubwa kuliko Dola zinazoingia. Hata kama mabenki ya biashara yanabadilisha viwango ili 'kubalance vitabu vyao' (kama ulivyoeleza vizuri), mabenki hayo yanalazimika kupandisha bei ya Dola kwa sababu yanajua Dola zilizopo sokoni ni chache kuliko idadi ya wateja (serikali na sekta binafsi) wanaozihitaji kwa ajili ya kulipia bidhaa nje ya nchi. Hiyo ndiyo 'Demand and Supply' yenyewe inayozalisha viwango hivyo vya Exchange Rate.

3. Balancing the Books na Exchange Rate
Mfano ulioutoa kuhusu mabenki ya Tanzania na Kenya kuwianisha vitabu vyao vya biashara ni mfano mzuri sana wa ngazi ya chini (Micro-level). Ulisema:

Ukweli huu unaoueleza ndio unaothibitisha hoja yangu! Kitendo cha Tanzania kuuza zaidi Kenya maana yake ni kwamba Tanzania inafanya Exports kubwa. Na kitendo cha benki kulazimika kubadilisha viwango ili kusawazisha akaunti hizo, ndio soko linavyojirekebisha kulingana na kiasi cha fedha kilichopo (Supply).

Mwisho, Post yangu ya awali haikuwa inapingana na uzoefu wako wa jinsi mifumo ya SWIFT inavyorusha ujumbe au jinsi wahasibu wa kibenki wanavyofunga mahesabu jioni. Post yangu iliangalia picha kubwa (Macro picture):

Je, kwanini soko la jumla la fedha (Interbank Market) linaelekea upande mmoja kwa sasa yaani Tanzania kuhistaji sana dollar? Linaelekea huko kwa sababu miradi mikubwa ya maendeleo inavuta Dola nyingi kutoka kwenye hifadhi yetu, wakati Kenya imepunguza presha hiyo kwa kuingiza mabilioni ya Dola za mikopo kutoka IMF na kupandisha riba ili kuzuia usafirishaji wa fedha nje.

Maelezo yako ya kifedha ni ya ndani ya mfumo (Operational), lakini maelezo yangu ni ya kiuchumi wa soko (Economic Forces). Mifumo yote miwili inategemana. Nafurahia sana mjadala huu na wewe kwani unawasaidia watanzania wengi wanaoandamana nasi kuelewa jinsi nchi yetu inavyoendesha mambo yake ya fedha ndani na nje.

UHASIBU VS UCHUMI

MUNGU IBARIKI TANZANIA NA WATU WAKE - KARIBU​

Hapana boss, uhalisia haupo ivo! chukulia mfano huu apa, look at all countries with deficit lets use kenya as example deficit ni $12B, but have you ever asked yourself where they got that extra $12B to pay for the services?

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now go back to that example i gave you about, tanzania akitaka kununua sgr wagons

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i understand it feels wierd because its not whats in the public but the whole economy doesnt work because there are balance sheets but its simply a loop of non ending new values, you should understand that 90% of the suply is surely only from numbers typed,
 
Is this Same account that always feeds your delusions and mentions everything wrong with kenya and everything going right in Tanzania? You will think it’s owned by Tanzania propagandist government.
Btw I have never seen a Kenyan based media platform so obsessed with Kenya going the right way, you would be cancelled in Kenya for praising Kenya like this 😅


View: https://x.com/uchumi360/status/2064964591117836558?s=46

View: https://x.com/uchumi360/status/2063594878467015039?s=46

View: https://x.com/uchumi360/status/2063872458512310463?s=46

View: https://x.com/uchumi360/status/2063875756812312745?s=46

View: https://x.com/uchumi360/status/2061311781218504960?s=46

We understand the truth hurts and we understand what your going through
 
Is this Same account that always feeds your delusions and mentions everything wrong with kenya and everything going right in Tanzania? You will think it’s owned by Tanzania propagandist government.
Btw I have never seen a Kenyan based media platform so obsessed with Kenya going the right way, you would be cancelled in Kenya for praising Kenya like this 😅


View: https://x.com/uchumi360/status/2064964591117836558?s=46

View: https://x.com/uchumi360/status/2063594878467015039?s=46

View: https://x.com/uchumi360/status/2063872458512310463?s=46

View: https://x.com/uchumi360/status/2063875756812312745?s=46

View: https://x.com/uchumi360/status/2061311781218504960?s=46


View: https://x.com/_James041/status/2064920160419332575?s=20
 
Is this Same account that always feeds your delusions and mentions everything wrong with kenya and everything going right in Tanzania? You will think it’s owned by Tanzania propagandist government.
Btw I have never seen a Kenyan based media platform so obsessed with Kenya going the right way, you would be cancelled in Kenya for praising Kenya like this 😅


View: https://x.com/uchumi360/status/2064964591117836558?s=46

View: https://x.com/uchumi360/status/2063594878467015039?s=46

View: https://x.com/uchumi360/status/2063872458512310463?s=46

View: https://x.com/uchumi360/status/2063875756812312745?s=46

View: https://x.com/uchumi360/status/2061311781218504960?s=46

dont cry

View: https://x.com/KennedyMmari/status/2065030614487609672?s=20
 
Is this Same account that always feeds your delusions and mentions everything wrong with kenya and everything going right in Tanzania? You will think it’s owned by Tanzania propagandist government.
Btw I have never seen a Kenyan based media platform so obsessed with Kenya going the right way, you would be cancelled in Kenya for praising Kenya like this 😅


View: https://x.com/uchumi360/status/2064964591117836558?s=46

View: https://x.com/uchumi360/status/2063594878467015039?s=46

View: https://x.com/uchumi360/status/2063872458512310463?s=46

View: https://x.com/uchumi360/status/2063875756812312745?s=46

View: https://x.com/uchumi360/status/2061311781218504960?s=46

Ouch!… you have cornered him !…🤣🤣
 
Hapana boss, uhalisia haupo ivo! chukulia mfano huu apa, look at all countries with deficit lets use kenya as example deficit ni $12B, but have you ever asked yourself where they got that extra $12B to pay for the services?

View attachment 3605604

now go back to that example i gave you about, tanzania akitaka kununua sgr wagons

View attachment 3605606

i understand it feels wierd because its not whats in the public but the whole economy doesnt work because there are balance sheets but its simply a loop of non ending new values, you should understand that 90% of the suply is surely only from numbers typed,
Ndugu yangu stakehigh, nakushukuru tena kwa kuleta mjadala huu kwenye ngazi ya juu sana ya nadharia ya kifedha (Monetary Theory). Screenshot ulizoweka kuhusu namna Benki Kuu zinavyoweza kuzalisha fedha mpya kwa njia ya kielektroniki (Base Currency Creation) na jedwali la urari wa biashara (Trade Balance) wa nchi za Afrika Mashariki ni dondoo muhimu sana za kisomi.

Maelezo yako kuwa asilimia 90 ya fedha duniani ni namba zinazochapwa kwenye kompyuta na kwamba mfumo unategemea imani (Faith au Fiat System) ni ukweli thabiti kabisa unaoungwa mkono na nadharia za kisasa za kifedha. Hata hivyo, kuna tofauti kubwa sana ya kiutekelezaji kati ya nchi inayochapa sarafu kuu ya dunia (Reserve Currency) na nchi zinazoendelea kama sisi za Afrika Mashariki. Naomba nifafanue.

1. Kuhusu Urari Hasi wa Biashara (Trade Deficit)
Umeuliza swali zuri sana
'Kama Kenya ina nakisi ya Dola Bilioni 12 hadi Bilioni 18, hiyo fedha ya ziada ya kulipia bidhaa inatoka wapi kama sio namba tu zilizochapwa?'

Ni kweli kabisa kuwa hiyo ni namba, lakini ni namba za Dola halisi zilizochapwa na Benki Kuu ya Marekani (Federal Reserve) na sio namba zilizochapwa na Benki Kuu ya Kenya (CBK).

Kenya inapokuwa na nakisi (Deficit) ya kiwango hicho, maana yake inahitaji Dola halisi kutoka nje ilikuweka uwioano. Dola hizo hazizaliwi kwa CBK kugusa kompyuta zao Nairobi. Zinapatikana kwa Kenya kukopa kwenye masoko ya kimataifa (kama Eurobond au IMF), uwekezaji wa kigeni (FDI), na fedha za Diaspora zilizotumwa nchini na raia wake(remittance).

Kama namba hizo za Dola zisingeingia kutoka nje kupitia njia hizo, mabenki ya Kenya yasingekuwa na ukwasi wa Dola wa kulipia mafuta au mitambo, na nchi ingeingia kwenye mgogoro mkubwa wa kifedha (Balance of Payments Crisis).

2. Mtego wa Kuchapa Fedha kwa Nchi Zinazoendelea
Screenshot yako ya pili inaeleza kwa usahihi kabisa kuwa Benki Kuu inapoandika hundi au kufanya uhamisho wa kielektroniki, inatengeneza fedha mpya (creating new money). Lakini nguvu hii ya Benki Kuu inaishia kwenye Sarafu ya Ndani (Local Currency) pekee.

Benki Kuu ya Tanzania (BoT) inaweza kutengeneza Shilingi Trilioni 10 mpya kwa sekunde moja kwa kuandika namba kwenye kompyuta ili kulipa mishahara ya ndani au vibarua wa SGR. Hapo uko sahihi kwa asilimia 100. Lakini BoT haiwezi kutengeneza Dola ya Marekani (USD) kwa njia hiyo. Unapoenda kununua mabehewa ya SGR nje ya nchi, kampuni ya kigeni haitaki Shilingi tulizozitengeneza kwenye kompyuta yetu; wanatarajia kulipwa kwa Dola. Na ili BoT itume ule ujumbe wa SWIFT wenye saini ya usalama, lazima akaunti yetu ya uwakilishi kule Marekani (Nostro Account) iwe na salio la Dola halisi zilizotokana na mauzo yetu ya dhahabu, utalii, mazao, au mikopo tuliyopewa.

3. Tofauti Yetu na Mataifa Makubwa Kama Marekani

Nchi pekee inayoweza kuendesha uchumi wake kwa mtindo ulioeleza (wa kuchapa tu namba kwenye kompyuta kulipia Trade Deficit) ni Marekani. Hii ni kwa sababu sarafu yao ya ndani (USD) ndiyo sarafu kuu ya akiba na biashara ya dunia nzima, upendeleo unaojulikana kitaalamu kama Exorbitant Privilege. Sisi nchi za Afrika Mashariki hatuna upendeleo huo. Tukichapa Shilingi zetu kielektroniki bila kuwa na akiba ya Dola (Foreign Reserves) ya kutosha kuunga mkono uagizaji wa bidhaa nje, matokeo yake yanakuwa ni kushuka kwa kasi kwa thamani ya sarafu yetu na mfumuko mkubwa sana wa bei mtaani.

Muktadha wetu wa EAC
Ndio maana katika post yangu ya awali nikasisitiza; Shilingi ya Tanzania inapoteza thamani kwa utaratibu kwa sasa kwa sababu tunasaini ujumbe mwingi wa SWIFT wa kutoa Dola halisi zilizopo kwenye akiba yetu kwenda kununua mitambo ya kimkakati ya reli ya SGR na miradi mingine mikubwa. Wakati huohuo, Kenya imesimamisha anguko la sarafu yao si kwa sababu wanatengeneza namba mpya kielektroniki, bali kwa sababu wameingiza mabilioni ya Dola halisi za mikopo kutoka IMF zilizojaza kapu lao la Benki Kuu (CBK) ili kulinda soko lao la fedha.

Maelezo yako ya kifedha ni ya ndani ya mfumo wa kibenki (Operational), lakini maelezo yangu ni ya kiuchumi wa soko (Economic Forces). Mifumo yote miwili inategemana na inakamilisha picha nzima. Nafurahi sana kuona tunabadilishana mawazo kwa staha na uelewa mkubwa namna hii jukwaani.

MUNGU IBARIKI TANZANIA NA WATU WAKE
ASANTENI KWA KUNISIKILIZA
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APo dalili zote znaonyesha kuna mtu kapita nazo, because nyasi gan wiki 3 hazibadiliki rangi
Dalili nyingi zina ashiria ukata wa fedha kwa mkandarasi, either ukata or kapunjwa.

Uwanja ni mchafu sana na ujajengwa kwenye mazingira ya uchafu kwa sababu ya hakuna vibarua wa kufanya usafi.
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Ni bora wangetembea na project iliyo ndani ya theur finacial means sio hizi wataabika nazo hata kwa usafi tu.
 
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