Battle: Dar es Salaam vs Nairobi

Battle: Dar es Salaam vs Nairobi

REAL Comrade Kipepe said:
Dalili nyingi zina ashiria ukata wa fedha kwa mkandarasi, either ukata or kapunjwa.

Uwanja ni mchafu sana na ujajengwa kwenye mazingira ya uchafu kwa sababu ya hakuna vibarua wa kufanya usafi.
View attachment 3605685

Ni bora wangetembea na project iliyo ndani ya theur finacial means sio hizi wataabika nazo hata kwa usafi tu.
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Hapa washamaliza buana
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Ndug wana ukumbi, Ngoja nidokeze kitu kingine hapa kati ya nchi zetu hizi mbili. Kitu chanyewe kinaitwa Non-Performing Loans - NPLs (mikopo chechefu)

Non - Performing Loans (NPLs) ni mikopo ambayo mkopaji ameshindwa kulipa marejesho yake kwa muda uliokubaliwa, na kwa kawaida malipo yanakuwa yamechelewa kwa zaidi ya siku 90. Mikopo hii huchukuliwa kuwa na hatari kubwa ya kutorejeshwa kikamilifu, hivyo huathiri faida na utulivu wa benki. Kwa maneno rahisi, NPLs ni mikopo “mbovu” au yenye matatizo ya ulipaji, na kiwango chake hutumika kupima afya ya sekta ya benki na uwezo wa wakopaji katika uchumi.

Mikopo Chechefu (NPLs) Tanzania 2.6% vs Kenya 17.6%
Je, Ni Alama ya Afya ya Bajeti au Kifo cha Sekta Binafsi?

Kwa mujibu wa vigezo vya usalama wa kifedha duniani, kiwango cha juu cha NPLs kinachokubalika ili mabenki yawe salama ni chini ya 5%.

1. Tafsiri ya Kiuchumi - Afya ya Soko la Ndani (Macro-Perspective)

TANZANIA - 2.6%
Kiwango hiki kinaonyesha kuwa takriban kila Shilingi 100 zinazokopeshwa na mabenki ya Kitanzania (kama CRDB, NMB, NBC n.k.), Shilingi 97.4 zinarudi zikiwa na faida kwa wakati. Hii ina maana moja tu: Biashara za ndani nchini Tanzania zinazalisha, soko lina ukwasi (pesa ipo mtaani), na mazingira ya kufanya biashara yanaruhusu watu kupata faida na kulipa madeni yao.

KENYA - 17.6%
Hali nchini Kenya ni ya dharura. Karibu theluthi mbili ya mabenki yamekaa juu ya mitaji iliyopotea. Kila Shilingi 100 walizokopesha Wakenya, Shilingi 17.6 zimegonga mwamba na hazirudi. Uchumi wao wa ndani umesinyaa, biashara kubwa na ndogo zinafungwa, na uwezo wa sekta binafsi kuzalisha umeporomoka.

2. Athari kwa Maendeleo ya Mwananchi Mmoja Mmoja (Micro-Perspective)

Tanzania (Urahisi wa Kupata Mitaji)
Kwa sababu mikopo inarudi na mabenki yana amani, kunatokea kile kinachoitwa Credit Expansion. Mabenki ya Kitanzania sasa yanashindana kushusha viwango vya riba na yanawafuata wafanyabiashara, wakulima, na watumishi wa umma kuwakopesha. Mwananchi mmoja mmoja anapata mtaji wa kukuza biashara, kujenga nyumba, au kusomesha watoto kwa gharama nafuu.

Kenya (Mzozo wa Ukata; Credit Crunch)
Mabenki ya Kenya yakiwa na vidonda vya 17.6%, yameingiwa na uoga mkubwa wa kukopesha raia (Risk Aversion). Benki zimegoma kutoa mikopo kwa raia wa kawaida na wafanyabiashara wadogo kwa hofu ya kupoteza fedha. Hata ukifanikiwa kupata mkopo, unawekewa riba ya unyanyasaji (zaidi ya 20%) ili benki ijifidie. Mwananchi anabaki hana pa kukimbilia kupata mtaji, na maisha yake yanazidi kuwa magumu.

3. Mahusiano na Muundo wa Bajeti za Nchi - Mtego wa "Crowding Out"

Mtego wa Bajeti ya Kenya
Serikali ya Kenya inakabiliwa na mbanano mkubwa wa bajeti kutokana na kulazimika kubadilisha KSh Trilioni 1.52 (Dola Bilioni 11.5) kwenda nje kulipa madeni makubwa ya kibiashara (Eurobonds).
Ili kuziba pengo la ndani, serikali ya Kenya inalazimika kukopa kwa nguvu kubwa ndani ya nchi kupitia Hatifungani (Treasury Bonds). Mabenki ya Kenya yanaona ni bora kuikopesha serikali (kwa sababu serikali haitafilisika) kuliko kuwakopesha wananchi ambao tayari 17.6% wameshindwa kulipa. Jambo hili kiuchumi linaitwa Crowding Out Effect. Bajeti ya Kenya inanyonya fedha zote za ndani, inakausha mifuko ya wananchi, na kuacha sekta binafsi ikiwa mahututi.

Nafuu ya Bajeti ya Tanzania
Bajeti ya Tanzania ya TZS Trilioni 62.3 haina presha kubwa ya madeni ya kigeni ya kibiashara (asilimia kubwa ya mikopo yetu ni ya masharti nafuu ya muda mrefu).
Hii inaipa serikali nafasi ya kutokung'ang'ania fedha zote za mabenki ya ndani. Bajeti inaziacha benki ziendelee kusukuma mabilioni ya Shilingi kwenda kwa sekta binafsi (miradi ya ujenzi, pembejeo za kilimo, na biashara). Matokeo yake, fedha inayobaki ndani (TZS Trilioni 52.3) inazunguka kwa kasi mitaani (High Cash Velocity)

Bajeti ya Kenya kwa sasa inalisha uchumi wa "Kujilinda na Kufuta Kivuli cha Madeni", ambapo serikali inakamua kila Shilingi kupitia kodi kali (Finance Bills) ili kulipa madeni ya nje, ikikausha ukwasi wa ndani na kusababisha wananchi washindwe kulipa mikopo ya benki (NPLs 17.6%).

Kwa upande wetu Tanzania, Bajeti yetu ni ya "Kupanda Mbegu na Kuvuna Mitaji". Kwa kuzuia upotevu wa Dola kwenda nje na kulinda Shilingi TZS Trilioni 52.3 ndani ya mzunguko wa ujenzi wa SGR, umeme wa JNHPP, na mishahara, uchumi wa ndani unazalisha ukwasi thabiti. Hii ndiyo sababu wafanyabiashara wetu wanarudisha mikopo kwa wakati, mabenki yetu yana afya (NPLs 2.6%), na mwananchi wa kawaida ana nafasi kubwa zaidi ya kuwa na maisha bora na ya bei nafuu.


Teargass mwaiofhawaii IamLee nyangau mkenya nairobae nairobae Nicxie
REAL Comrade Kipepe The best 007 stakehigh Geza Ulole NairobiWalker RRONDO Magonjwa Mtambuka Traveller D Apeche alolo kennedy0000 ChoiceVariable chongchung Chill Kifaru254 Lemzy mwathadan BlietzKrieg AMARII babayao255 ndughuri msuya NDINDA concordile 101 Reborn Ktb The Icebreaker Mgagaa na Upwa game over Mpwimbe Filaria
 
President of China said:
Ndugu yangu stakehigh, nakushukuru tena kwa kuleta mjadala huu kwenye ngazi ya juu sana ya nadharia ya kifedha (Monetary Theory). Screenshot ulizoweka kuhusu namna Benki Kuu zinavyoweza kuzalisha fedha mpya kwa njia ya kielektroniki (Base Currency Creation) na jedwali la urari wa biashara (Trade Balance) wa nchi za Afrika Mashariki ni dondoo muhimu sana za kisomi.

Maelezo yako kuwa asilimia 90 ya fedha duniani ni namba zinazochapwa kwenye kompyuta na kwamba mfumo unategemea imani (Faith au Fiat System) ni ukweli thabiti kabisa unaoungwa mkono na nadharia za kisasa za kifedha. Hata hivyo, kuna tofauti kubwa sana ya kiutekelezaji kati ya nchi inayochapa sarafu kuu ya dunia (Reserve Currency) na nchi zinazoendelea kama sisi za Afrika Mashariki. Naomba nifafanue.

1. Kuhusu Urari Hasi wa Biashara (Trade Deficit)
Umeuliza swali zuri sana


Ni kweli kabisa kuwa hiyo ni namba, lakini ni namba za Dola halisi zilizochapwa na Benki Kuu ya Marekani (Federal Reserve) na sio namba zilizochapwa na Benki Kuu ya Kenya (CBK).

Kenya inapokuwa na nakisi (Deficit) ya kiwango hicho, maana yake inahitaji Dola halisi kutoka nje ilikuweka uwioano. Dola hizo hazizaliwi kwa CBK kugusa kompyuta zao Nairobi. Zinapatikana kwa Kenya kukopa kwenye masoko ya kimataifa (kama Eurobond au IMF), uwekezaji wa kigeni (FDI), na fedha za Diaspora zilizotumwa nchini na raia wake(remittance).

Kama namba hizo za Dola zisingeingia kutoka nje kupitia njia hizo, mabenki ya Kenya yasingekuwa na ukwasi wa Dola wa kulipia mafuta au mitambo, na nchi ingeingia kwenye mgogoro mkubwa wa kifedha (Balance of Payments Crisis).

2. Mtego wa Kuchapa Fedha kwa Nchi Zinazoendelea
Screenshot yako ya pili inaeleza kwa usahihi kabisa kuwa Benki Kuu inapoandika hundi au kufanya uhamisho wa kielektroniki, inatengeneza fedha mpya (creating new money). Lakini nguvu hii ya Benki Kuu inaishia kwenye Sarafu ya Ndani (Local Currency) pekee.

Benki Kuu ya Tanzania (BoT) inaweza kutengeneza Shilingi Trilioni 10 mpya kwa sekunde moja kwa kuandika namba kwenye kompyuta ili kulipa mishahara ya ndani au vibarua wa SGR. Hapo uko sahihi kwa asilimia 100. Lakini BoT haiwezi kutengeneza Dola ya Marekani (USD) kwa njia hiyo. Unapoenda kununua mabehewa ya SGR nje ya nchi, kampuni ya kigeni haitaki Shilingi tulizozitengeneza kwenye kompyuta yetu; wanatarajia kulipwa kwa Dola. Na ili BoT itume ule ujumbe wa SWIFT wenye saini ya usalama, lazima akaunti yetu ya uwakilishi kule Marekani (Nostro Account) iwe na salio la Dola halisi zilizotokana na mauzo yetu ya dhahabu, utalii, mazao, au mikopo tuliyopewa.

3. Tofauti Yetu na Mataifa Makubwa Kama Marekani
Nchi pekee inayoweza kuendesha uchumi wake kwa mtindo ulioeleza (wa kuchapa tu namba kwenye kompyuta kulipia Trade Deficit) ni Marekani. Hii ni kwa sababu sarafu yao ya ndani (USD) ndiyo sarafu kuu ya akiba na biashara ya dunia nzima, upendeleo unaojulikana kitaalamu kama Exorbitant Privilege. Sisi nchi za Afrika Mashariki hatuna upendeleo huo. Tukichapa Shilingi zetu kielektroniki bila kuwa na akiba ya Dola (Foreign Reserves) ya kutosha kuunga mkono uagizaji wa bidhaa nje, matokeo yake yanakuwa ni kushuka kwa kasi kwa thamani ya sarafu yetu na mfumuko mkubwa sana wa bei mtaani.

Muktadha wetu wa EAC
Ndio maana katika post yangu ya awali nikasisitiza; Shilingi ya Tanzania inapoteza thamani kwa utaratibu kwa sasa kwa sababu tunasaini ujumbe mwingi wa SWIFT wa kutoa Dola halisi zilizopo kwenye akiba yetu kwenda kununua mitambo ya kimkakati ya reli ya SGR na miradi mingine mikubwa. Wakati huohuo, Kenya imesimamisha anguko la sarafu yao si kwa sababu wanatengeneza namba mpya kielektroniki, bali kwa sababu wameingiza mabilioni ya Dola halisi za mikopo kutoka IMF zilizojaza kapu lao la Benki Kuu (CBK) ili kulinda soko lao la fedha.

Maelezo yako ya kifedha ni ya ndani ya mfumo wa kibenki (Operational), lakini maelezo yangu ni ya kiuchumi wa soko (Economic Forces). Mifumo yote miwili inategemana na inakamilisha picha nzima. Nafurahi sana kuona tunabadilishana mawazo kwa staha na uelewa mkubwa namna hii jukwaani.

MUNGU IBARIKI TANZANIA NA WATU WAKE
ASANTENI KWA KUNISIKILIZA​
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It doesnt work that way, SWIFT isnt a network of connected central banks, its only a MESSAGING SYSTEM, kwa mtu ambae hajafika BOT anaweza dhan SWIFT ni kama database flan inconnect central banks zote, NO it doesnt work that way!

SWIFT works based on 2 protocols (MT or ISO 20022), when the bank of tanzania sends a SWIFT message there is no any balance sheet that needed to prove i have the reserve because the other central bank only needs to receive the message and work on the payment via the LOCAL CURRENCY

If every central bank on earth needed VAULTS so pay for transactions then even the US itself would never be able to make payments outside because they have a huge deficit

Kinachokuchangaya ni unahisi SWIFT Ni program flan inahifadhi hela and there is a place somewhere abroad they can view what balance you have for them to accept or reject a transactions, sasa things dont work that way, It goes this way


I have a good relationship with kenya then i can send as many SWIFT messages as needed because i TRUST bank of tanzania is legit and not auto creating money

2) What you learn in economics is only whats supposed to happen for individual to propser but the overall banking system is another story, i have barely scratched the surface of what happens in the system

3) Trade deficit arent a big problem where thos 2 nations are in good relationship, Remember i told you the monetary system is based on TRUST

4) Every central bank including the Federal reserve can print as much money as needed, the only problem here is TRUST, the Federal reserve can print enough of it because its the base currency of the US and no any other country can reject it, However there are only 9 countries where the US cant send its money: Andorra, Ecuador, El Salvador, Kiribati, Marshall Islands, Micronesia,Nauru, Palau and Tuvalu (why its impossible here is anotherday story as i told you i barely scratched the surface) however thislist has some nations such as Afghanistan, cuba and sometimes Honkong(partially)

5) Trade deficit isnot a problem, na sio kenya tu, most nations will always have a deficit and they will still purchase anything outside except for some few of them,na sio nchi tu, other notable figures include IMF and World Bank, they can as well sent you as much money as needed
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6) When you take a loan at IMF or World Bank, itsnot because your supposed to pay it back but its because you have to align to some conditions, When you take a loan from the IMF there is no any collateral needed as itsnot really a loan as you might think of, However when you take a loan from a multinational company then you have to pay it(For example naweza nkaenda IMF nkasema nahitaji mkopo kwa ajili ya COVID, VIJANA, MALARIA... the list goes on) now itadepend mahusiano yenu! Thats why all presidents always emphasize that we have good relationships with country x, some will say our relationship goes back to maybe 90's, itsnot by accident but its survival

7) Tanzania shilling doesnt loose value because of anything related to the economy its purely the commercial banks scheme, again tanzania & kenya shillings arent valuable as you think but they are the main political drivers for a nation to prosper, Take it this way, the government just said this is money and thats it you have nothing else to question, For example! If you lived in the 80's you surely have come across a 10tsh not, now that 10tsh can now just be considered useless because thats what the government saidand you had to follow what they said, in reference if i had 10 grams of tanzanite in the 80's you know it will still worth till today

Nikienda kununua shati kariakoo tuseme nmenunua 1000 Tsh, i might as well sell it for 5000tsh, because thats what i wanted you to believe is the actual price, likewise to the government it has to do the same because thats what is supposed to be done



I understand we have people studying economics and accountant but just like anything else created by human, you are born to learn how to live in a world thats created from complexity of the same human, for you to come up with another creativity for the next generation to learn how to live from it


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concordile 101 said:
Halafu bajeti tengwa ya maendeleo ni 749bil ksh
Kule kwenye reli wametenga 40bil ksh kati ya 700bil ksh halafu wanasema watajenga miaka miwili🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣.
Bado barabara, nuclear power plant, madeni ya viwanja vya AFCON 2027.
🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣
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nachoka mwandambo, unakopa kufidia bajeti ambayo 50% of it imetengwa kulipa madeni, nachoka mwandambo
 
REAL Comrade Kipepe said:
Dalili nyingi zina ashiria ukata wa fedha kwa mkandarasi, either ukata or kapunjwa.

Uwanja ni mchafu sana na ujajengwa kwenye mazingira ya uchafu kwa sababu ya hakuna vibarua wa kufanya usafi.
View attachment 3605685

Ni bora wangetembea na project iliyo ndani ya theur finacial means sio hizi wataabika nazo hata kwa usafi tu.
Click to expand...
mpaka leo hawajaanza usafi sjui wanasubiria nn, zamu ya nan leo kwenda kumwagilia majani Teargass au mwaiofhawaii ?
 
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