On March 29, Zimbabwe is holding its local, senate, assembly and presidential elections. The incumbent Robert Mugabe, the former guerrilla who has ruled the African nation for 28 years, is seeking another term as president – a move being met with widespread derision.
Why the controversy?
Since Mugabe came to power, the country once considered ‘the breadbasket of southern Africa' has nosedived into crippling economic decline. Inflation is currently more than 100,000%, officially the highest in the world, and the Zimbabwean people have been largely pauperised. Mugabe's policy of seizing white-owned farms to give to landless blacks (often using fatal force) has, according to his critics, brought agricultural ruin and widespread starvation. Food scarcities and spiralling prices have since spawned a burgeoning black market, which many believe is the only thing preventing the outbreak of civil war. Mugabe, however, blames his country's collapsing economy on the legacy of sanctions and British imperialism and denounces his critics as "born-again colonialists."
Is the economy really in that much of a mess?
In a word, yes. The Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe recently launched a new 10 million dollar note. Last week, that note was just enough to buy you two toilet rolls. By now, you probably couldn't even get that much. A litre of fuel now costs almost 40 million. To put those prices in context, the average wage for a farm worker is 30 million dollars a month. All of which has given rise to one of the most sophisticated black markets in the world. One US dollar, at the official rate, is now worth around 30,000 Zimbabwean dollars. On the black market, however, the real price is around 35 million dollars – roughly 1,166 times the official rate. A 10 million dollar toilet roll, in other words, would cost less than 30 US cents on the black market. But at the official rate, that price skyrockets to nearly US$350.
So how has Mugabe managed to stay in power for so long?
Mugabe first rose to prominence in the 1960s when he formed the Zimbabwe African National Union (Zanu) and led a guerrilla uprising against white minority rule in what was then colonial Southern Rhodesia. His supporters, many of whom are war veterans, view him as a liberation hero, the man who overthrew imperialism and steered his nation towards independence, and he is revered in many rural areas. Mugabe has led the country since 1980, first as prime minister and then, since 1987, as president. But during the past decade, accusations of corruption, economic mismanagement and human rights violations have increasingly sparked international condemnation of his regime.
How do the presidential elections work, exactly?
Under Zimbabwean law, when more than one candidate contests the presidency, the winning candidate must secure at least 51% of the vote to ensure victory. If none of the candidates succeed in doing so, a second round of elections must be held between the two leading candidates within 21 days. Mugabe could, of course, get less than 51% and still declare himself the winner - a move that would most likely ignite immediate civil war.
Surely the elections will put an end to all this?
Not necessarily. If the critics' claims are true, it's highly likely the elections will be rigged. Complaints of intimidation, biased media coverage, vote-rigging and other anomalies have been rife since 2000. Opposition activists insist the government has printed more ballot papers than there are voters; that there are a disproportionate number of polling stations in Mugabe's rural strongholds; that food aid is only being given to the ruling Zanu-PF party's supporters and that none of the candidates – including the incumbent – know how to tackle Zimbabwe's hyperinflation. Earlier this month, EU ministers also voiced concern the elections won't be free or fair.
Aren't there international observers on the ground to prevent that sort of thing?
Err, no – not really. Although the foreign minister says there will be 47 observer teams in place, these include delegations from South Africa's governing African National Congress, which endorsed the 2002 presidential election as free and fair; Russia; China; Venezuela and Iran. Observers from Britain, the EU, the United States and a team from the Commonwealth – all of whom have been critical of Mugabe – have been banned from attending, as have much of the international media.
So, who else is running for president?
Morgan Tsvangirai is running for the main opposition party, the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC). A veteran trade unionist, he founded the MDC in 1999 to oppose Zimbabwe's "misrule, official corruption, and dictatorship." Tsvangirai lost his 2002 presidential bid to Mugabe, but Western and opposition observers denounced the elections as rigged by Zanu-PF. The MDC espouses free market economics and its manifesto focuses on economic stabilisation, reconstruction, national integration, constitutional change and the restoration of law and order.
Mugabe's other main challenger is a former ally: Simba Makoni was previously Zanu-PF's energy, transport and finance minister. He was sacked in 2002 after calling for the devaluing of currency in a bid to boost exports. There has been some concern that Makoni, who says he is running because of the "failure of national leadership," could be lured back to Zanu-PF by Mugabe after the election. Either way, his campaign could split the Zanu-PF vote – potentially loosening Mugabe's stranglehold.
Running a distant fourth is the little-known Langton Towungana, who emerged from obscurity on nomination day to declare he was running as an independent. He has told Zimbabwe's Herald newspaper that Zimbabweans should have unity of purpose if they hope to address the economic challenges facing the country, calling for development to be fostered through transparency and accountability.
And what will the outcome be?
It's hard to say. Previous polls have functioned less as elections and more as coronations, and there's growing evidence to suggest things won't be any less rigged this time. However, the sheer weight of the political and public opposition – not to mention the backdrop of economic chaos – may yet see Mugabe unseated. Whatever the result, however, there are fears it could spark civil war on the scale seen recently in Kenya, when 1,200 people died in violent post-election clashes. If Mugabe loses, he is unlikely to go quietly; if he wins, he has threatened to quell any protests using the notoriously violent security forces at his disposal.
