Geza Ulole
Platinum Member
- Oct 31, 2009
- 75,682
- 107,111
Wakenya hizi akili nimewapa mimi, mmeanza sasa kuichambua GDP tatizo hamnipi credits humu mnapeleka twitter 😂😂
Hapo kwenye total kilometers of paved roads Kenya nimepapenda zaidi
View: https://x.com/i/status/2058418664466968864
I looked at Public Debts for Kenya, Tanzania, Ethiopia 2025.
Kenya US$ 100 Billion ( KShs 12.8 Trillion)
Tanzania US$ 46 Billion ( KShs 5.9 Billion)
Ethiopia US$ 51 Billion ( KShs 6.5 Billion).
Note that Public Debts for Ethiopia and Tanzania are 50% of Kenyas Public Debt.
It is difficult to tell where Kenya's KShs 12.8 Trillion was used.
I will analyse looking at major Projects the 3 Countries have undertaken since 2002 when the three has almost same Public Debts at US$ 7 Billion.
I will look at Kenya last.
Tanzania:
1. US$ 10 Billion Shs 1 Trillion 2,300km Standard Gauge Railway Dar Dodoma Mwanza Kigoma linking Rwanda Burundi DRC
2. US$ 3.6 Billion Julius Nyerere Hydro Power Plant 2115 MW
3. US$ 260 Million JPM Magufuli 3.2km Bridge Lake Victoria.
4. Dar es Salaam BRT US$ 332 Million
5. Kigamboni Bridge US$ 136 Million.
6. US$ 550 my Kinyerezi 400MW Gas Turbines
Total US$ 14.8 Billion ( Shs 1.28 Trillion)
If you consider Tanzania has built more Bitumen Roads (15,000kms versus 9,500km for Kenya), already about 50% of the Foreign Debt is accounted for.
And Julius Nyerere HPP was funded largely from Exchequer. Similarly more than 50% of SGR was funded from Exchequer.
Ethiopia:
1. US$ 5 Billion Grand Renaissance Dam 5150 MW
2. US$ 4 Billion 750 km Addis Djibouti Electrified SGR
3. US$ 1.7 Billion Awash Woldia SGR 425 km
4. You can't ignore Ethiopian Airlines, one of the biggest in the World with 150 Aircraft with 70 Wide Body Aircraft 100% Govt owned. At US$ 250 Million each, that is at a minimum US$ 20 Billion
US$ 12.7 Billion KShs 2.66 Trillion.
Again already about 50% of the Public Debt is accounted for.
And they can even fund GERD US$ 5 Billion from Exchequer.
Kenya
1. US$ 3.26 Billion 600km SGR Mombasa Suswa 2. Olkaria Power Stations US$ 1.3 Billion
3. US$ 360 40km Thika Superhighway
4. US$ 800 Nairobi Expressway
5. US$ 400m Dongo Kundu 17km
Total US$ 6.12 KShs 783 Billion.
When you compare with Shs 12.8Trilliin Debt,bthus is a mere 6% you can see.
I can't think of a Major Project the size of Julius Nyerere HPP or GERD in Ethiopia that Kenya has funded from internal resources the last 25 years.
Remember Kenya has borrowed KShs 6.4 Trillion more than either of those two countries.
Moreover Tanzania has 15,000 km Bitumen Roads more than Kenya at 9,500km
The ex Pres. Uhuru Kenyatta opined that about KShs 2B ( US$ 17 million) was being stolen everyday during his tenure. It is not far from the truth.
If you consider Tanzania is almost double the size of Kenya and people live everywhere.
Kenya, we live in only 30% of the Country. So Tanzania has more Roads, Population and Public services compared to Kenya.
Ideally Kenya's annual Budget should be half of Tanzania.
Instead it is 1.5 times bigger
That is about Shs 1 Trillion 'lost' annually.
This problem started after 2002 because the Public Debts were the same in the 3 Countries at US$ 7 Be each.
The mistake in Kenya is probably the choice of Political System. We chose Democracy where the one who does a better public circus gets elected. So you can end up with more than 90% of elected representatives with a dubious background who can lead a country into the abyss.
Unlike Ethiopia and Tanzania who tend to have Technocratic high quality leadership because of their Socialist past.
And today, Kenya cannot do any minor Project without borrowing.
And we are still promoting PPPs as if it is free money.
Useless PPPs like Motor Vehicle Inspections, Speed Cameras, Africa50, Adani etc
So long as Foreigners are doing the PPPs, it is a burden on the KShs and they will have to be paid in US$ FOREX.
Kenya needs now to start thinking about whether the choices of Democracy and Devolution were a mistake.
At the moment, Kenya's future is bleak and nobody seems to have a clue on how to reverse.
Wameanza kuamka! BTW refinery at Tanga will be a nail on their coffin!
Meanwhile Ethiopia inawageuka!
View: https://x.com/BusInsiderSSA/status/2058195799704469524