US Election Coverage 2008

[Nyani Ngabu]

Nyani, mi nimeuliza tu. Lakini how do you explain the fact that every primary night walikuwa pamoja except today. Sasa mi nimeuliza maana nimeona ni kitu cha ajabu. Una taarifa yoyote alikuwa wapi?

Mimi sijui alikuwa wapi lakini najua alikuwa akimnadi mkewe kama kapungukiwa akili....sasa jana usikute alikuwa kwenye kikao cha mkakati wa kuchukua PA....

 

[Capitol Hill]

First of all I would like to congratulate Nyani Ngabu and the Clinton camp for last nights victory. good job!, but the fight moves on.

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Clinton Wins, Obama's Still Ahead; What's Next?
March 05, 2008 9:44 AM

ABC News' David Chalian Reports:

This is where math and momentum meet.

On the heels of three victories in Ohio, Texas, and Rhode Island, Sen. Hillary Clinton, D-N.Y., turned back a surging Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., who came into Tuesday with 11 straight victories and picked up another win in Vermont.

So, what's next?

1. If Clinton and Obama basically tie in the remaining 12 contests, Obama would need 164 superdelegates to come his way to put him over the magic number of 2,024

2. Assuming no currently committed superdelegates switched and no uncommitted superdelegates jumped off the fence. . .

Clinton would need to win 59% of the delegates in the remaining 12 contests in order to overtake Sen. Obama's delegate lede.
If the upcoming 611 delegates at stake split 59/41 for Clinton -- 360 would go to Clinton and 251 would go to Obama -- netting Sen. Clinton 109 delegates. . . which would be enough to overcome Obama's current 106 delegate lead.

3. There are 611 delegates up for grabs in the remaining 12 contests.

ABC News' current delegate estimate has Obama at 1,556.

That means he would need to win 77% of all the remaining pledged delegates to hit the magic number of 2,024 to secure the nomination. That is highly unlikely due to the proportional delegate allocation rules in the Democratic Party.

Clinton would need to win 94% of all the remaining pledged delegates to hit the magic number of 2,024. (ABC News currently has her at 1449.)

So, clearly they both are going to be relying on superdelegates to secure the nomination.

Stay tuned...

Source: ABC News

 

[Icadon]

Uchaguzi wa jana ulikuwa ni kushinda delegates ama kusimamisha momentum ya Obama? Whether Obama anapata nomination au la ukweli unabaki kuwa amemkosesha tembo usingizi.

Numbers za delegates bado zinaingia so far mambo ni
Obama 1,520 Superdelegates 199
Clinton 1,424 Superdelegates 238
Naona tofauti ya superdelegates inapungua.
Ukweli unabaki baada ya huu mchakato Dems will never be the same, na wakulaumiwa sijui atakuwa nani (Prty Officials, Clinton au Obama?).

 

[Nyani Ngabu]

Uchaguzi wa jana ulikuwa ni kushinda delegates ama kusimamisha momentum ya Obama? Whether Obama anapata nomination au la ukweli unabaki kuwa amemkosesha tembo usingizi.

Numbers za delegates bado zinaingia so far mambo ni
Obama 1,520 Superdelegates 199
Clinton 1,424 Superdelegates 238
Naona tofauti ya superdelegates inapungua.
Ukweli unabaki baada ya huu mchakato Dems will never be the same, na wakulaumiwa sijui atakuwa nani (Prty Officials, Clinton au Obama?).

Najua ulikuwa unataka kusema Clinton...

 

[Icadon]

Najua ulikuwa unataka kusema Clinton...

Lol I'm better than that, In a long run hii kitu ikienda kwenye convention chances za Obama ni ndogo sana.

 

[Nyani Ngabu]

Lol I'm better than that, In a long run hii kitu ikienda kwenye convention chances za Obama ni ndogo sana.

Ebwana umeona Japan kuna sehemu watu wamepagawishwa na Obama..? Sasa hadi hao Wajapan jamani...

 

[Icadon]

Ebwana umeona Japan kuna sehemu watu wamepagawishwa na Obama..? Sasa hadi hao Wajapan jamani...

Kuna kijiji/mji unaitwa Obama naona nao umepata exposure kubwa sana...Ila funny enough nchi nyingi za Europe na Middle East hazimfagilii sana Obama well at least watu wachache niliozungumza nao wanaotokea maeneo.

 

[Jasusi]

Capital Hill,
Good to see you again. Usiwe unapotea sana!

 

[Icadon]

Ten Reasons Obama Slipped

As it became clear that Hillary Clinton was gaining ground on Obama, especially in the last week, his usually flawless campaign made several blunders. Here, in order of importance, are ten reasons why Obama slipped.

1. NAFTA Flap

When Obama’s leading economic adviser, Austan Goolsbee, met with a Canadian official and allegedly told him that Obama’s stated views on NAFTA during the campaign amounted to “political posturing,” this was a huge blunder. It undercut Obama’s attack on Clinton for NAFTA, where she was vulnerable, especially in Ohio. It raised serious issues about Obama’s credibility with the American public, which is just getting to know him. (Especially since Obama first denied that the comment was ever made.) And the NAFTA flap called into question his leadership abilities. As I’ve been saying for days, and as Paul Begala said Tuesday night on CNN, as soon as this story surfaced, Obama should have said that Goolsbee was not speaking for the campaign and should have given Goolsbee the heave-ho. Instead, the Goolsbee comment keeps stinging him.

2. Rezko

It certainly didn’t help the Obama campaign that Tony Rezko’s trial began on Monday. The Rezko story has been lying around like a pulled hand grenade next to Obama’s headquarters for months now. Rezko is the Chicago wheeler-dealer who stands accused of money laundering and extorting bribes. He’s a longtime friend, funder, and supporter of Obama’s. And he helped Obama buy his house in Chicago. The Rezko ties, which the media finally began digging into, cast a shadow not only on Obama’s judgment but on his claim to want to clean up government.

3. A Blunder in the Last Debate

The Clinton camp wisely picked up on an Obama error in the Cleveland debate. Clinton had criticized him for never holding an oversight hearing on NATO’s role in Pakistan, even though he chairs a subcommittee on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee that deals with NATO. All Obama could say to that was, “I became chairman of this committee at the beginning of this campaign, at the beginning of 2007. So it is true that we haven’t had oversight hearings on Afghanistan.” He all but admitted he shirked his duties to run for President! Clinton used this footage of Obama’s answer in an effective ad against him in the final week.

4. The Red Phone Ad

Negative advertising often works. That’s why we see it so much. And the “red phone” ad, I’m betting, did a lot to sow doubts in voters’ minds. Clinton almost split the male vote in Ohio and Texas, which is a huge switch for her. This ad helped position her as the “tough” candidate.

5. No Effective Counterpunch to Clinton’s “Fighter” Image

In the last debate, and in her speeches in the final week, Clinton stressed that she was a fighter not only for herself but for people in need. This resonated with the public, who admire her if for no other reason than she’s taken a lot of hits but keeps coming out of her corner with her head high. And this image contrasts well with Obama in two ways: First, it suggests that he’s all talk and no action. And second, it hints that his cool, low-key demeanor may not be steely enough either to take on McCain or to represent the country.

6. A Weak Economic Message

With the economy sliding deeper and deeper downward, Obama needs to strengthen his economic message. Throughout the campaign, Clinton has been beating him on the urgent issue of home foreclosures (calling for a moratorium, and a freeze on interest rates). He’s been slow to respond.

7. Too much time in Ohio

In the two weeks after the Wisconsin primary, Obama spent an inordinate amount of time in Ohio when all he needed to do, as Bill Clinton himself recognized, was to win either Texas or Ohio. As it became clearer that Ohio was going to be the tougher nut, Obama should have concentrated more of his time in Texas.

8. An Improvident Trip to Rhode Island

For some ridiculous reason, Obama went to Rhode Island on Saturday to campaign. By all accounts, he was always going to lose Rhode Island. And he needed that day—just three days before the primaries—to round up more Texas voters.

9. Failure to Bring Bill Richardson and John Edwards on Board

On Sunday on “Face the Nation,” Governor Bill Richardson of New Mexico was one breath away from endorsing Barack Obama. Had Obama grabbed his endorsement (even in exchange for serious V.P. consideration, which Richardson was salivating about), Richardson could have done Obama a world of good with Latino voters in Texas. Similarly, Obama has been unable to seal the deal with John Edwards, who seemed such a natural fit with Obama during the debates. Obama needed to get Edwards’s endorsement for help among working class white voters. And it would have been of enormous help in Ohio.

10. SNL, Jon Stewart, Letterman

“Saturday Night Live” helped Clinton out two weeks in a row by showing the media as biased in favor of a hapless Obama. And Clinton made a conscious effort to inject some warmth into her personality by appearing on the show last Saturday, and by appearing on Jon Stewart Monday night. She also has done herself well by being cozy with David Letterman.
Source URL:
http://www.progressive.org/mag_wx030508

 

[Susuviri]

Icadon,
I think what is good is that the Obama camp learns fast. I think that it is good that Pennsylvania is 7 weeks away. There's room for regrouping and it will be tough terrain for Obama, maana huko ndiko kuna rednecks haswa! Mi nadhani it's better Jaluo naye akomae maana GOP si mchezo! Lakini naamini Jaluo ni jeuri kweli aliamua tu kuwa defense lakini akienda offense he will do it with skill - remember he's an avid basketball fan and he also has game!
Also I am now reading about the Florida and Michigan delegates. If there's a revote I think that will be really interesting! Maana it increases chances. I think itamsaidia Obama unlike what Clinton camp thinks kwa sababu ya proportinate allotation! Kwa kuwa all races look so close, Clinton cannot bag much more delegates to catch up, at least that's the math so far.
The primary is getting more interesting....

 

[Sam]

We need change!!!!!
Hivi mnaomshabikia Obama mna agenda gani kwa maana hapa nasindwa kuelewa. Uchaguzi wa US siyo kama wa Kenya.
Democratic inaingia ikiwa nyuma kwenye electral Vote
GOP - 286
Dems - 252
Ili Democratics washinde wanahita kushindwa kwenye swing states ambazo nyingi ziko mikononi mwao. Kuna states tatu ambazo ni swing na ziko mikononi mwa GOP. FL, TX, and OH. FL ni ngumu kushinda za kutegemea ni OH na TX. Now tell me who is the best candidate....

 

[Koba]

We need change!!!!!
Hivi mnaomshabikia Obama mna agenda gani kwa maana hapa nasindwa kuelewa. Uchaguzi wa US siyo kama wa Kenya.
Democratic inaingia ikiwa nyuma kwenye electral Vote
GOP - 286
Dems - 252
Ili Democratics washinde wanahita kushindwa kwenye swing states ambazo nyingi ziko mikononi mwao. Kuna states tatu ambazo ni swing na ziko mikononi mwa GOP. FL, TX, and OH. FL ni ngumu kushinda za kutegemea ni OH na TX. Now tell me who is the best candidate....

...nani kakuambia TX is a swing state,you dont know shit..kaa kimya!

 

[Icadon]

ENPR: Hillary's Wins Raise Prospect of the Unthinkable -- A Contested Convention
by Robert Novak and Timothy P. Carney (more by this author)
Posted 03/05/2008 ET
Updated 03/05/2008 ET

Outlook

1. Think about the unthinkable: a contested Democratic convention in Denver, with the identity of the Democratic presidential nominee unknown until just before Labor Day. That's the impact of Sen. Hillary Clinton's (D-N.Y.) remarkable performance Tuesday that broke her long losing streak against Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.): a big win in Ohio where she was supposed to win narrowly, if at all, and unexpected wins in Texas and Rhode Island.

2. A group of prominent Democrats was being formed secretly to go to Clinton to ask her to bow out for the sake of party solidarity. Now, neither candidate, counting their current super-delegates and potential unpledged delegates, can win a majority of delegates even after the Pennsylvania primary April 22. It is hard to imagine either bowing out. That raises the possibility of carnage in Denver with the super-delegates and the disputed Michigan and Florida delegations in play.

3. The budget fight in Congress beginning next week will be a many-sided political battle touching on issues ranging from Iraq to immigration. Look for Republicans to launch an attack on earmarks and force Democrats to vote on Clinton and Obama spending plans.

Democratic Presidential

Clinton extended the race with her strong performance last night, highlighted by an impressive win in Ohio.

Ohio: Ohio snapped Clinton's losing streak, highlighted her strengths, and reflected a late surge.

1. Ohio favored Clinton demographically, being older, whiter, and more female than the average state. But her 10-point victory here -- a legitimate blowout -- was much bigger than expected, giving Clinton a much-needed bounce.

2. Obama's clumsy handling of NAFTA issues hurt him, as Clinton won big in manufacturing areas of the state according to exit polls, showing that Clinton has become the certified candidate of blue-collar whites.

3. Exit polls also suggest that Bill Clinton successfully played his racial angle. Concentrating on Obama's blackness, stressing that it's fine for African-Americans to support a black candidate, Clinton drove home the idea that Obama is a "black candidate." According to exit polls, Obama carried 86 percent of the black vote in Ohio and only 33 percent of the white vote. Clinton won big among those polled who indicated the candidate's race was important.

4. Clinton won among the late deciders. This reflected NAFTA issues and her campaign trail performance more than her debate performance, which was not a plus for her.

Texas: Hillary's slim win Texas is an upset and crucial to breathing life into her candidacy. It makes her the legitimate winner of last night's primaries by giving her three of four primaries and both big states.

1. While not significant in the delegate race -- Obama, after the caucuses, could come out of Texas with more delegates -- Clinton's slim win in the primary here is of huge PR importance. The media can see it as an upset and see the entire night as a real bounce for Clinton.

2. Delegate counts from Texas -- all rewarded by state senate district -- were still unclear as of press time, but it was unlikely that Clinton made a sizable dent here in Obama's 150-delegate lead among pledged delegates. She did, however, finally win a day for the first time since Nevada or New Hampshire.

3. Obama had some real advantages here. He had a bigger, stronger ground game that hit Texas earlier than Clinton's team did. He had large black populations centered in major cities. He also had rich liberals in places such as Austin. These factors make Clinton's win more impressive.

4. Clinton won the white vote here 55 percent to 44 percent, but she carried the Hispanic vote with 63 percent. Hispanics, according to exit polls, showed up in 50 percent greater numbers than did African-Americans.

5. The media's reaction and the campaigns' abilities to spin will determine the impact of Texas going forward. Early indications are mixed, with some accounts focusing on her tough delegate climb from here out.

Rhode Island and Vermont: Obama picked up his only win in Vermont while Clinton also won Rhode Island.

1. Vermont, replete with hardcore liberals, was prime territory for Obama, despite being populated mostly by old white people. He won huge here with 60 percent of the vote. Still, this win did nothing to rescue the day for him.

2. Clinton's win in Rhode Island was also substantial -- nearly a 20-point margin. It continued her streak of winning solidly Blue States.

Going Forward: Clinton still has a very difficult path to the nomination -- one that would inevitably require something verging on the unsavory regarding delegates.

1. Depending on delegate allocation from Tuesday night, Clinton still needs large victories in the remaining states in order to catch Obama among pledged delegates. She is not likely to do this, but if she keeps winning some contests in the future, she will ward off calls for her to step aside.

2. Pennsylvania and North Carolina are the two biggest remaining states, and she looks like the early favorite in the former, while Obama is favored in North Carolina. Throughout February, Obama could be counted on to make up early deficits in the polls, Hillary could be the one with momentum now.

3. The major impact of Tuesday night's results is that now nobody can call on Clinton to quit. This boosts the possibility of the nomination's being undecided going into the Denver August convention. If this process gets ugly -- and with a Clinton involved, that seems likely -- McCain could really benefit.

4. With Hillary's staying in the race for the home stretch, the need for a solution on Michigan and Florida becomes more acute. Clinton's proposal that both states' January primary results be counted is unfair on its face. The idea of a do-over -- advanced, oddly, by Gov. Charlie Crist (R) -- gains some currency. The third option -- blocking the states' delegates altogether -- could hurt Obama if he wins the nomination on that score

 

[Sam]

...nani kakuambia TX is a swing state,you dont know shit..kaa kimya!

Matusi ya nini tena? Si ungeuliza kwa nini nimesema hivyo. Nadhani hapa JF matusi hayaruhusiwi.

 

[Gigo]

Matusi ya nini tena? Si ungeuliza kwa nini nimesema hivyo. Nadhani hapa JF matusi hayaruhusiwi.

..

Matusi ni Nini...!!?

Obama....malizia...

 

[William J. Malecela]

Hawa waandishi nao too much blah! blah!, hawana lolote ni watu wanaoishi kwa kuuza maneno, ukweli ni kwamba kwa mara ya kwanza media ndio imeanza kum-scrutinize Jaluo, ambye amekuwa akila free ride kwa muda mrefu sana,

Ohio State, ina matatizo mengi sana economically, area ambayo Jaluo sio very strong, Texas ni wabaguzi period, no way wanaweza kumpa candidate mweusi,

Uchaguizi unaendelea, Jaluo bado anaongoza kwa delegates na Jaluo akae chonjo maana wazungu wameshaanza kumshitukia kuwa uwezo wake wa kupambana na Makeni ni mdogo, halafu haya maneno ya kina Limbaugh, kuwa Republicans wako better off kushindana na Hillary, ni uongo wa mchana wanamuogopa mama, kuliko Jaluo,

Yaaani mambo mengine ni no brainer at all, kwa sababu can you imagine Conservatives Republicans, wanaingia kugombea urais wa USA na candidate mweusi mwenye middle name Hussein? OOh yah kutajwa tajwa kwa hili jina recently kume-make a big defference in the results za kura, mimi ninmewasikia wa-Marekani wengi karibuni kwenye media wakisema kuwa Jaluo ni "...Muslim I did not know that...", I mean pamoja na yote bado Jaluo anayo nafasi kubwa ingawa ukweli ni kwamba baada ya juzi, inaoneakana wengi wameanza kuwa na second thoughts, lakini that is all uchaguzi wa demokrasia ya kweli is all about.

Jaluo bado ana nafasi kubwa ya ushindi.

 

[Bongolander]

MKuu ES
Hata hivyo ukiona gains alizopata Obama kwa muda wa wiki tatu unaweza kuona jkuwa hata Texas ambo kunaaminika kuwa ni outpost of racism ameshindwa kwa asilimia ndogo sana, na bahati nzuri ile racist Generation ya miaka ya 60 na 70 haipo sana, na iliyopo ni generation tofauti kabisa. Ukiangalia kwenye miji kama Ausitin, na sehemu zote za mjini ambako wate wameenda shule, rangi ya mtu sio issue. Na wengi wa wapiga kura tayari wamecross color Bar.
Ukiangalia ushindi wa Clinton sio mkubwa kama ambao angeuhitaji, asilimia 51 kwa 48 ya Texas haijamsaidia sana Clinton,kidogo ya Ohio imempa uhai,Lakini ukumbuke kuwa Texas Caucus bado inaendelea kuhesabiwa na kuna uwezekano mkubwa Obama akashinda na Akishinda Caucus kuna uwezekano mkubwa kuwa ukijumlisha idadi ya delegates wote wa caucus na primary, huenda Obama akawa mshindi. Media imejitahidi kidgo kumsulubisha Obama, lakini siasa za Marekani smears ni kitu cha kawaida sana, na smears sio kwa sababu mtu fulani ni mweusi au mweupe. Tutakuwa na picha kidogo kwenye primary moja ijayo na caucus moja, hapo tunaweza kujua kama Hilary au Obama amekwisha!

 

[Kitila Mkumbo]

Hii ya kusema eti Hillary anakisambaratisha chama ni janja ya kutengeneza huruma kwa Obama. Hakuna huruma hapa, huu ni mpambano. Kama hakuna mgombea atakayepita katika hizi primary, hii kitu iende hadi June. Hamna cha ajabu hapa maana hata Bill alipatia nomination kwenye convention June. Kinachotakiwa hapa ni Obama kujipanga upya na kuachana na ujinga wa kutafuta huruma na kuanza whining.

 

[Koba]

Matusi ya nini tena? Si ungeuliza kwa nini nimesema hivyo. Nadhani hapa JF matusi hayaruhusiwi.

....hata PM unazotuma kuinsult watu ni part of JF,somebody needs to fix you up with your arrogance!

 

[Icadon]

Hii ya kusema eti Hillary anakisambaratisha chama ni janja ya kutengeneza huruma kwa Obama. Hakuna huruma hapa, huu ni mpambano. Kama hakuna mgombea atakayepita katika hizi primary, hii kitu iende hadi June. Hamna cha ajabu hapa maana hata Bill alipatia nomination kwenye convention June. Kinachotakiwa hapa ni Obama kujipanga upya na kuachana na ujinga wa kutafuta huruma na kuanza whining.

Hii kitu ikienda kwenye DNC Obama hana chance kubwa za kushinda, njia nyingine ni kuwa wawe running mates sasa kwa theme ya change ya Obama napo amejichimbia kaburi.

Camp ya Obama imesema kuwa itabadilisha tactics na kusharpen Mama naye ndio wanaplan smackdown ya nguvu kwa Obama(end game).