William J. Malecela
R I P
- Apr 27, 2006
- 26,584
- 10,465
Sasa Jaluo vipi tena? Aaahhhhhhhhhhhhgggghhhhhhhhhhh?
US Election Coverage 2008
US Election Coverage 2008
- Thread starter Game Theory
- Start date
Mtanganyika
JF-Expert Member
- Jul 18, 2007
- 1,601
- 962
Nipo macho mpaka sasa, almost 2:40am central time. Na blog na baadhi ya ma blogger across US. Naona kuna crazy idea sinatupwa kwenye blogs
One thing i will asure you guys, advisor wa Sen. Obama will adopt the Kitchen sink strategy. You will see more attack concern USSR in 1990's when Bill was a president, you will see more pushing concern her Income Tax, they will request the white house to releases of her documents. It will be a dirty politics for few weeks going to Penny state.
Some blogger they even suggest to brake the convention into million peaces, some they even suggest Obama to go independents. This is crazy guys
To this moment, Sen.Obama is still leading deligates between 80-100. American Politics, what a nightmare
Nyani Ngabu
Platinum Member
- May 15, 2006
- 97,264
- 137,958
Hapana! Hii sasa ndio tunaita distortion. Alichofanya Mama ni kuwa mhalisia na ku-acknowledge resume ya McCain ambayo karibu kila mtu anakiri ni ya nguvu. Sasa unapompeleka dogo kama Obama akachuane na War hero ataweza kweli?....that was her argument.
Kitila Mkumbo
JF-Expert Member
- Feb 25, 2006
- 3,355
- 1,984
Eeeh bwana, kaka yaani ukiamka tu ni moja kwa moja JF!
Susuviri
JF-Expert Member
- Oct 6, 2007
- 3,713
- 891
Jamani ninatamani nikae humu tubishane weeee! Lakini nimebanwa kazini hata hivyo nimeona nitumie excuse niandike maana naona rafiki yangu Nyani ameamka na nilimwachia usiku alale na usingizi mzuri akishangilia victory!
Naomba nitoe maoni yangu hapa kuhusu jana:
1. Big Victory for Clinton: This is a fallacy! In the delegate maths naomba niwasilishe from Daily Kos, in fact Hillary wins ONLY 1 delegate extra!
2. Clinton won the important big states: Another fallacy. Hivi kweli mnataka kusema that those staunch Democrats who voted for Hillary will not vote for Obama if he is the nominee? I don't think so. Even Clinton camp said 25% of those who voted for her will not vote for him. That means 75% will. Combine that with the people that Obama won over, I think that Obama will comfortably win any state (including Ohio). BTW saying that a certain state is RED is absurd because RED states like Virginia have Democratic governors and senators like Virginia to mention one. So Clinton's argument here is weak.
3. Superdelegates to the rescue! Another fallacy propagated by Clinton: Superdelegates have indicated that they are ready to throw their weight behind the candidate with most pledged delegates. Richardson for example said that after March 4th the candidate with most pledged delegate count will get the support of most Superdelegates. They also want this to be over. They are not ready to wait for 7 weeks mpaka Pennsylvania. THey might politely but behnd the scenes something is brewing. We will see...
But let me show the other side of the coin:
1. Obama's Achilles heel: What this result showed is that Obama has several weaknesses that he needs to address ASAP including his media reaction is slow and not accurate, he has to get used to attacks and not show emotion or hint of trying to avert questions. I have no doubt that Obama learns fast, but it remains to be seen
2. Ammutnition to GOP: Clinton has provided ammunition to GOP against Obama and beleive me they will use it. They will even put HIllary in their add saying that she and McCain have expereince while Obama has speeches. Hii ni kweli na imewakera hata staunch supporters wa Hillary including akina Begala. Wamesema that is TOO much. But it doesn't change the fact that Obama is facing a barage of attacks from 2 sides.
3. Money: Obama has to keep the money coming as he has to keep his ads afloat etc and he is still the challenger as Hillary has name recognition.
4. Racism: there has been a hint of racism playing a role in Ohio but this cannot be substantiated because Obama has won among whites in Red states. However the fact that Clinton heightened the religion issue and actually made Obama's skin darker in ads is said to have affected some latent racists. I don't buy this argument but it should be considered.
Where does this leave us?
I tell you this: Clinton will NOT catch up with Obama and even her supporters say so. There's hardly anyone to tell her but it will eventually happen. She does have the support of some powerful Democratic leaders in particular the DLC (ambao walijaribu kummaliza Howard Dean kisiasa) but it is not enough.
When the dust settles Obama will be the nominee of the party because he overtook Clinton in February and there are not enough delegates to catch up with. This was her last stand. So it is strange that despite her 'victories' in fact it is not, because she was supposed to come back big instead she won a few extra delegates. What happened is that she has prolonged her drop out. I think she is jockeying for a VP position.
Jamani inabidi nirudi kazini, I will check in later.
Koba, Game Theory, Field Marshall ES - keep your eye on the ball, haya yote ni mizengwe and a lot of spin.
Nyani, always looking forward to a good debate! Have a nice day!
Naomba nitoe maoni yangu hapa kuhusu jana:
1. Big Victory for Clinton: This is a fallacy! In the delegate maths naomba niwasilishe from Daily Kos, in fact Hillary wins ONLY 1 delegate extra!
This may change but it looks unlikely Clinton kupata that much more delegates, in fact Texas could provide more delegates to Obama
2. Clinton won the important big states: Another fallacy. Hivi kweli mnataka kusema that those staunch Democrats who voted for Hillary will not vote for Obama if he is the nominee? I don't think so. Even Clinton camp said 25% of those who voted for her will not vote for him. That means 75% will. Combine that with the people that Obama won over, I think that Obama will comfortably win any state (including Ohio). BTW saying that a certain state is RED is absurd because RED states like Virginia have Democratic governors and senators like Virginia to mention one. So Clinton's argument here is weak.
3. Superdelegates to the rescue! Another fallacy propagated by Clinton: Superdelegates have indicated that they are ready to throw their weight behind the candidate with most pledged delegates. Richardson for example said that after March 4th the candidate with most pledged delegate count will get the support of most Superdelegates. They also want this to be over. They are not ready to wait for 7 weeks mpaka Pennsylvania. THey might politely but behnd the scenes something is brewing. We will see...
But let me show the other side of the coin:
1. Obama's Achilles heel: What this result showed is that Obama has several weaknesses that he needs to address ASAP including his media reaction is slow and not accurate, he has to get used to attacks and not show emotion or hint of trying to avert questions. I have no doubt that Obama learns fast, but it remains to be seen
2. Ammutnition to GOP: Clinton has provided ammunition to GOP against Obama and beleive me they will use it. They will even put HIllary in their add saying that she and McCain have expereince while Obama has speeches. Hii ni kweli na imewakera hata staunch supporters wa Hillary including akina Begala. Wamesema that is TOO much. But it doesn't change the fact that Obama is facing a barage of attacks from 2 sides.
3. Money: Obama has to keep the money coming as he has to keep his ads afloat etc and he is still the challenger as Hillary has name recognition.
4. Racism: there has been a hint of racism playing a role in Ohio but this cannot be substantiated because Obama has won among whites in Red states. However the fact that Clinton heightened the religion issue and actually made Obama's skin darker in ads is said to have affected some latent racists. I don't buy this argument but it should be considered.
Where does this leave us?
I tell you this: Clinton will NOT catch up with Obama and even her supporters say so. There's hardly anyone to tell her but it will eventually happen. She does have the support of some powerful Democratic leaders in particular the DLC (ambao walijaribu kummaliza Howard Dean kisiasa) but it is not enough.
When the dust settles Obama will be the nominee of the party because he overtook Clinton in February and there are not enough delegates to catch up with. This was her last stand. So it is strange that despite her 'victories' in fact it is not, because she was supposed to come back big instead she won a few extra delegates. What happened is that she has prolonged her drop out. I think she is jockeying for a VP position.
Jamani inabidi nirudi kazini, I will check in later.
Koba, Game Theory, Field Marshall ES - keep your eye on the ball, haya yote ni mizengwe and a lot of spin.
Nyani, always looking forward to a good debate! Have a nice day!
Masanja
JF-Expert Member
- Aug 1, 2007
- 5,478
- 10,915
It sad to say or even think about it, But...
This is a lost year for DEMS! Too soon to say so? I am not sure!
You guys should know from the beggining dems had no REALISTIC candidates vying for presidency of the USA in 2008! It was just an excitement of having woman and black man in the race..to reaffirm the supremacy of US democracy and not otherwise. When honourable politicians like AL Gore opted out, for his admirers like me, I already knew..it was another bickering between these two leading to the bitter outcome we are increasingly seeing. I really feel that Gore has let Americans down!
It was expected that Obama and his supporters would whine about the injustice and dirty campaigns, race card, Clinton machine, etc, etc..... As it is happening now.
It was expected that HRC much as she is good, she is a political liability and she has too much baggage, for Neocons to hound her! She is going no where!
So what is remaining between dems? blame game. Realistically McCain stands a better chance of winning this thing!
Jamani hivi kweli resume ya huyu babu unailinganisha na ipi? ya community organizer and three year senator? ya First lady for eight years doing nothing?
As I said it before for any realistic chances of either of the two..is to be one ticket. Short of that, you should be prepared for another wait for four years.
Al Gore, should have given it another shot as McCain is doing after 2000!
Lets wait and see!
This is a lost year for DEMS! Too soon to say so? I am not sure!
You guys should know from the beggining dems had no REALISTIC candidates vying for presidency of the USA in 2008! It was just an excitement of having woman and black man in the race..to reaffirm the supremacy of US democracy and not otherwise. When honourable politicians like AL Gore opted out, for his admirers like me, I already knew..it was another bickering between these two leading to the bitter outcome we are increasingly seeing. I really feel that Gore has let Americans down!
It was expected that Obama and his supporters would whine about the injustice and dirty campaigns, race card, Clinton machine, etc, etc..... As it is happening now.
It was expected that HRC much as she is good, she is a political liability and she has too much baggage, for Neocons to hound her! She is going no where!
So what is remaining between dems? blame game. Realistically McCain stands a better chance of winning this thing!
Jamani hivi kweli resume ya huyu babu unailinganisha na ipi? ya community organizer and three year senator? ya First lady for eight years doing nothing?
As I said it before for any realistic chances of either of the two..is to be one ticket. Short of that, you should be prepared for another wait for four years.
Al Gore, should have given it another shot as McCain is doing after 2000!
Lets wait and see!
...ngabu unajua spin na reality ni vitu tofauti sana,2 weeks ago mama alikuwa up by almost 20 points lakini virtually is atie in Texas na likely Obama atapata more delegates,na siasa chafu za kumchafua mwenzako ili ushinde ndugu yangu hazilipi,ina maana mama principle zote za Democratic party ambazo yeye na Obama wanasimamia hazioni ila ni hiyo propaganda tuu ya experience,sad sad sad siasa za huyu mama na sioni akienda popote maana numbers does not add upp for her...na hii fallacy ya big states and small states sijui kaitoa wapi maana hata total popular vote bado yuko nyuma,inabidi sasa Obama aanze kumjibu kwa nguvu sana huyu mama maaana amemwachia sana
....i dont see babu akienda popote na vita vyake vya miaka 100 na Bush policy ambazo zimewafanya vibaya wamarekani,subiri campaign zianze ndio utajua siasa ni mchezo mchafu kama ulivyokiri hapo juu,Repubs stands no chance this time na it dont matter wamemsimamisha nani ila WH wasahau na sitashangaa hata senate na house zikawa sweep!
Kitila Mkumbo
JF-Expert Member
- Feb 25, 2006
- 3,355
- 1,984
Susuviri, I think you are missing the point here. The purpose of this election was not really to produce an outright winner because this will probably not happen until the time of the convention. The central purpose of this election was either to extinguish or rekindle Mrs Clinton's campaign. So, the question here is has Mrs Clinton's campaing been rekindled or extinguished? There is no doubt even in Obama's mind that this campaign has just begun and the future is gloomier to Obama than to Hillary.
One more point, it is clear now that Obama is so vulnerable if the media decides to srutinise him in the same way it has done to Hillary. Just within two days of a little exposure of Obama's controversial political rhetoric that is not matched to his deeds in public, we could see how the how easily shakeable this guy is. Now that the Clintons have learnt that their strategy of "hit hard" is working, we should only expect more misery on "our" boy and the ending could really be pathetic for him.
Itawachukua muda kukubali ukweli kwamba safari ya Obama inaanza kuingia matope. Tatizo ni kwamba ectasy ya Obama iliwabeba sana kiasi kwamba mkaziba mishipa ya kawaida ya fahamu kukubali ukweli kwamba Obama asingeshinda Texas na Ohio. Sasa kama ameshindwa kushinda Texas, atatumia muujiza gani kushinda Penn.?
Nyani Ngabu
Platinum Member
- May 15, 2006
- 97,264
- 137,958
Jana nilikuwa naangalia FOX News na walikuwa na focus group....mmoja wa watu ktk hiyo focus group akasema yeye alibadilisha uamuzi wake na kumpigia kura Mama baada ya yule surrogate wa Obama kushindwa kutaja accomplishment hata moja ya Obama kwenye kipindi cha Hardball with Chris Matthews.
Na ukifikiria kwa undani zaidi utajiuliza kuwa huyu jamaa hana accomplishment yoyote ya maana ktk rekodi yake sasa atawezaje kuleta mabadiliko ya kweli zaidi ya yale yaliyo wazi (rangi)?
Like John McCain said, his is an eloquent but empty call to change and that people should reject it and we saw that last night.
Halafu tenacity aliyonayo Mama kwa kweli ni admirable!! Ana passion ili second to none na watu wameanza kutambua kwamba huyu ndio mtu anayefaa kuwa raisi kwa sababu bado anapigana bila kukata tamaa hata kwenye wakati mgumu. Super big up girl!!
Halafu mliona jinsi Obama-palooza (speech) ilivyokuwa imepooza jana?
Na ukifikiria kwa undani zaidi utajiuliza kuwa huyu jamaa hana accomplishment yoyote ya maana ktk rekodi yake sasa atawezaje kuleta mabadiliko ya kweli zaidi ya yale yaliyo wazi (rangi)?
Like John McCain said, his is an eloquent but empty call to change and that people should reject it and we saw that last night.
Halafu tenacity aliyonayo Mama kwa kweli ni admirable!! Ana passion ili second to none na watu wameanza kutambua kwamba huyu ndio mtu anayefaa kuwa raisi kwa sababu bado anapigana bila kukata tamaa hata kwenye wakati mgumu. Super big up girl!!
Halafu mliona jinsi Obama-palooza (speech) ilivyokuwa imepooza jana?
Game Theory
JF-Expert Member
- Sep 5, 2006
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- #1,571
Just look at the map BELOW. Overall Popular votes dont win delegates, big cities do
He won big in all the major cities. Except San Antonio and Toledo.
Kitila Mkumbo
JF-Expert Member
- Feb 25, 2006
- 3,355
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Very true indeed. Analysis za wataalamu zinaonyesha kwamba 61% ya watu waliofanya uamuzi in the last 3 days walimpigia kura Hillary vs 38% waliompigia kura ndugu yetu Obama. Halafu 68% ya watu waliopiga kura on the basis of delivery walimpigia kura Hillary vs 32% kwa Obama. Conversely, 60% ya watu waliopiga kura on the basis of inspiration walimpigia kura Obama vs 40% ya Hillary. So the question goes, if delivery will be a main issue in the next circle of this campaign, mama is likely to get more delegates; lakini kama watu wanaona inspiration (mhamasisho, upagawaishaji, kiwewe) ndio ya maana, basi mshikaji atapata delagtes zaidi huko mbele. Lakini it seems people are increasingly becoming more interested with delivery than inspiration because the former is easier to sustain than the later. The implication: unless the man changes his campaign style to inject more substance in his message (but thus far he's demonstrated to be very poor on this!),we can only suspect more troubles for Obama in the future than for Hillary.
Nyani Ngabu
Platinum Member
- May 15, 2006
- 97,264
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Kitila...nimeipenda hiyo ya uhamasishaji, upagawaishaji, na kiwewe....hahahaha...hilo bonge la dongo kwa washabiki wa Obama. Na ni ukweli mtupu....kwikwikwiiii....
Halafu hawa washabiki wa Obama mbona siwaoni hapa leo...? Tupo mimi na wewe tu....
Halafu hawa washabiki wa Obama mbona siwaoni hapa leo...? Tupo mimi na wewe tu....
Game Theory
JF-Expert Member
- Sep 5, 2006
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OBAMA NEEDS TO DO 3 THINGS:
1. He has to fight back against the Hillary smear machine. Over the last week he has been on the defensive while they threw the kitchen sink at him. He has to come out stronger. Check her hard.
2. He has to kill that experience shit she has been talking. He has to quit conceding she has that much experience. He has to come out hard against it. Fact is, most of that 35 years were in the private industry and in law firms.
3. He has to prove why people should choose him as the "Commander in Chief".
AND LASTLY he needs to leave that whole "turn the other cheek" mentality where it belongs. Political campaigns are a dirty business and you can't come in as a softie thinking you change hundreds of years of how their game is played.
His campaign supports need to start leaking dirty shit about her... thats what people feed off of.
Having said all that, there is no need to panic at the point... he is doing well as far as the numbers go...
Game Theory
JF-Expert Member
- Sep 5, 2006
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You sounds like some LATINO
Game Theory
JF-Expert Member
- Sep 5, 2006
- 8,546
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- Thread starter
- #1,577
thats a simplistic analysis considering ulivyona akili nyingi
Rufiji
Platinum Member
- Jun 18, 2006
- 1,937
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Watu wengi watajaribu kuzungumza na kudai ya kuwa Obama amekwisha . Lakini ukweli wa mambo hakuna hata mtu mmoja anayejua ni nani atashinda katika hii election. Jamani lazima mtambue ya kuwa wiki mbili zilizopita Mama alikuwa akiongoza TEXAS kwa double digits ...pili demographics hapa Texas ilikuwa ni advantage kwa mama kwa hiyo mama ameshinda tuangalie nini kitatokea ....
Kitila kitendo chako cha kusema Obama kuwa scrutinized kwa siku mbili ndio kilichomfanya ashindwe sio kweli kabisa. Vipi kuhusu latinos ambao walikiri ya kuwa hawatakaa wavote kwa mtu mweusi , vipi majority ya republicans walioshawishiwa na Rush limbaugh na Sean Hannity kumpigia kura mama.
Kitila kitendo chako cha kusema Obama kuwa scrutinized kwa siku mbili ndio kilichomfanya ashindwe sio kweli kabisa. Vipi kuhusu latinos ambao walikiri ya kuwa hawatakaa wavote kwa mtu mweusi , vipi majority ya republicans walioshawishiwa na Rush limbaugh na Sean Hannity kumpigia kura mama.
Nyani Ngabu
Platinum Member
- May 15, 2006
- 97,264
- 137,958
Rufiji,
Ohio kulikuwa hakuna Latino wengi lakini kashinda...licha ya Unions kum-endorse Obama.
Sidhani kama Ohio na RI Republican wali-cross over. Hata huko Texas kwa mujibu wa exit polls Republicans na Independents wengi walimpigia kura Obama!!
Sikiliza bwana Rufiji, Hii wiki moja iliyopita Obama kaanza kuwa scrutinized zaidi ya ilivyokuwa. Ka-flip-flop kwenye NAFTA, kesi ya Rezko imeanza, tangazo la red phone 3am...n.k ndiyo yaliyofanya yeye kutoshinda. Halafu watu na wenyewe wameanza kufikiria mara mbili mbili...huyu jamaa anatuambia change lakini ni nini hasa alichofanya ktk maisha yake kisiasa yaliyoleta mabadiliko zaidi ya longolongo....nada!!
Ohio kulikuwa hakuna Latino wengi lakini kashinda...licha ya Unions kum-endorse Obama.
Sidhani kama Ohio na RI Republican wali-cross over. Hata huko Texas kwa mujibu wa exit polls Republicans na Independents wengi walimpigia kura Obama!!
Sikiliza bwana Rufiji, Hii wiki moja iliyopita Obama kaanza kuwa scrutinized zaidi ya ilivyokuwa. Ka-flip-flop kwenye NAFTA, kesi ya Rezko imeanza, tangazo la red phone 3am...n.k ndiyo yaliyofanya yeye kutoshinda. Halafu watu na wenyewe wameanza kufikiria mara mbili mbili...huyu jamaa anatuambia change lakini ni nini hasa alichofanya ktk maisha yake kisiasa yaliyoleta mabadiliko zaidi ya longolongo....nada!!
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