US Election Coverage 2008

[BAK]

Hawa waliokuwa wanakusanya data kuhusiana na opinion polls wamevurunda kweli. Opinion polls nyingi zilikuwa zinaonyesha Obama alikuwa anaongoza kwa percentage kubwa na baadhi zilionyesha double digits lead. Hizo opinion polls zitakuwa zinaangaliwa mara mbili mbili hasa za democrats.

 

[Kitila Mkumbo]

Hawa waliokuwa wanakusanya data kuhusiana na opinion polls wamevurunda kweli. Opinion polls nyingi zilikuwa zinaonyesha Obama alikuwa anaongoza kwa percentage kubwa na baadhi zilionyesha double digits lead. Hizo opinion polls zitakuwa zinaangaliwa mara mbili mbili hasa za democrats.

Hizi zimeshageuka siasa; zinaanza kutumiwa kukatisha wengine tamaa na ku-boost morale ya wengine. lakini ukweli wa mambo ya kura ni hadi pale mpiga kura anapotumbukiza kura yake. Na kwa sisi Africa hadi pale Tume ya Uchaguzi itakapoamua kumtangaza wanaomtaka au walioagizwa wamtangaze!

 

[Masanja]

Susuviri wait a minute! Eti Obama tusimlinganishe na JK? what? Obama kafanya nini/ana cv gani ya kutisha? two years under his belt kwenye senate? zaidi ya kuvote kafanya nini? jamani kwa sababu tunaishi huku kwenye mavumbi bongo, doesnt mean we arent informed!! WE ARE! mara mia ungeniambia Richardson! Ningekuelewa...Infact I love that guy (but reality check is he cant win AND I CANT VOTE FOR HIM!) eti tuangalie kwenye website ya Obama.. paper na plans zake? comrade get life!!! Siasa haiendi hivyo.

My only advise kwa Obama supporters is that they need REALITY CHECK. Politics isnt stock exchange or a banking business. Vijana tuna euphoria sana when it comes to political issues. But hey......

Polls zilipompa juzi 39% Obama na 29% yule mama, si ni polls hizo hizo pundits walizotumia kumwritte off huyu mama? Leo wanasema eti hazikuwa realistic! Guys!

Good speeches can inspire, give hopes and advocate for change but usually they work well in the UNITED NATIONS and PEACE TALKS! Not when it comes kupigana na umaskini!

Ask we Tanzanians, it took long for us to understand that(did we really get a lesson?)! and we are still paying the price, unlike the American electorate which is more informed than ours. and as such you see the difference. Ingekuwa ni ushindi wa speech, Obama angekuwa ameshaingia White House.

Anyway, whoever wins in US...I wish him/her all the best.

 

[Susuviri]

Masanja, Nadhani ni vyema ukijua I enjoy a good debate!
Umesema haina maana kusoma plans za Obama on the website, but unfortunately that is what is subtance. You would read what I meant by expereince and leadership in Obama. Lakini let me list a few things here in a nutshell:

In the Illinois State Senate, this meant working with both Democrats and Republicans to help working families get ahead by creating programs like the state Earned Income Tax Credit, which in three years provided over $100 million in tax cuts to families across the state. He also pushed through an expansion of early childhood education, and after a number of inmates on death row were found innocent, Senator Obama worked with law enforcement officials to require the videotaping of interrogations and confessions in all capital cases.
In the U.S. Senate, he has focused on tackling the challenges of a globalized, 21st century world with fresh thinking and a politics that no longer settles for the lowest common denominator. His first law was passed with Republican Tom Coburn, a measure to rebuild trust in government by allowing every American to go online and see how and where every dime of their tax dollars is spent. He has also been the lead voice in championing ethics reform that would root out Jack Abramoff-style corruption in Congress.

As a member of the Veterans' Affairs Committee, Senator Obama has fought to help Illinois veterans get the disability pay they were promised, while working to prepare the VA for the return of the thousands of veterans who will need care after Iraq and Afghanistan. Recognizing the terrorist threat posed by weapons of mass destruction, he traveled to Russia with Republican Dick Lugar to begin a new generation of non-proliferation efforts designed to find and secure deadly weapons around the world. And knowing the threat we face to our economy and our security from America's addiction to oil, he's working to bring auto companies, unions, farmers, businesses and politicians of both parties together to promote the greater use of alternative fuels and higher fuel standards in our cars.

Sasa niambie, kwamba kazi aliyofanya ni ndogo! This guy is a first time senator! Naomba usimnyime what is due!
Sasa nipatie ile 35 years expereince anayoizungumzia Hilary ni ya nini - expereince ya kuwa Bill's wife? Maana that must be quite an experience but not the right kind!

 

[Masanja]

Susuviri, mimi wala sijajaribu kudebate na wewe, nimeeleza tuu feelings zangu mkuu, Mi sijamnyima due zake muungwana Obama. lakini unayoaandika hapa, exactly thats substance for intellectuals kama wewe na mimi wenye mda wa kwenda kusoma. Hivi kweli mkuu unafikri wangapi wanasoma plans? Hivi kama kweli ni plans do you really thank kuna manifesto nzuri kuliko ya CCM? lakini utendaji wao uko wapi? Unasema Obama will change Washington inavyofanya kazi! Mkuu hata kama ni mjinga atajua hiyo ni hot air!

Kifupi hakuna mwenye deni la Obama! na ndio hao independents wengi na vijana. Lakini mchezo wa siasa ni nipe nikupe kaka!

Unajua unaweza usione experience ya Hillary lakini KISIASA yule mama ana mtaji mkubwa especially Mume wake na watu wanamjua! na kuna wengi "anawadai kisiasa". Hata watu weusi mfano wanaona wana deni kwa mama kwa sababu ya baba aliyowafanyia (na kweli aliwafanyia mema). In otherwords wanajiona wana deni kwake na kwa upande wa Obama hawana deni! Mkuu ndizo siasa, ukweli na theory ni viwili tofauti! .

Mi I agree with you Obama is a good politicians lakini ikija swala la nani akaniwakilishe, "wazee wachama kwa kutumia busara zao" wanaamua. Na as I said kazi kubwa ya Obama siyo kuruka na vijana wa kizazi kipya..ni vyema kwanza adeal na hawa core democrats (bongo tunasema waliokunywa maji ya bendera ya ccm) hao ndo watampa ushindi au kumnyima!

MOST OF THOSE WHO JOINED POLITICS, WENT WITH DREAMS OF CHANGING THE WAY POLITICS IS CONDUCTED, SADLY, MOST OF THEM WERE CHANGED BY POLITICS. Na unfortunately, vijana wengi hilo hatulijui! na wazee wengi hilo wanalijua saana.

Mkuu nakutakia kila lakheri! I hope your candidate clinches the nomination.

 

[Capitol Hill]

Masanja, this thing is not over yet Sawa mzee? Yeah, I admit I underestimated the Clintons and I knew for sure Obama would pull another stinger on Hillary last night, only to find out I WAS WRONG! So Congrats to the Clintons for the victory, now lets see how SC is gonna play. After all Obama did finish only 2nd so don't count him out yet.

 

[Icadon]

The question is can she cry her way back to the white house? Kwa kifupi whether Obama atapata nomination au la ukweli unabaki kuwa kamkosesha na anamkosesha tembo usingizi, mama akiwa nominated for Nov election chances are Rep wanarudi White House in 2012.


New Hampshire's Polling Fiasco

January 09, 2008 12:05 AM

There will be a serious, critical look at the final pre-election polls in the Democratic presidential primary in New Hampshire; that is essential. It is simply unprecedented for so many polls to have been so wrong. We need to know why.

But we need to know it through careful, empirically based analysis. There will be a lot of claims about what happened - about respondents who reputedly lied, about alleged difficulties polling in biracial contests. That may be so. It also may be a smokescreen - a convenient foil for pollsters who'd rather fault their respondents than own up to other possibilities - such as their own failings in sampling and likely voter modeling.

There have been previous races that misstated support for black candidates in biracial races. But most of those were long ago, and there have been plenty of polls in biracial races that were accurate. (For more on past problems with polls in biracial races, see this blog I wrote for Freakonomics last May.) And there was no overstatement of Obama in Iowa polls.

On the other hand, the pre-election polls in the New Hampshire Republican race were accurate. The problem was isolated to the Democratic side - where, it should be noted, we have not just one groundbreaking candidate in Barack Obama, but also another, in Hillary Clinton.

A starting point for this analysis will be to look at every significant Democratic subgroup in the New Hampshire pre-election polls, and see how those polls did in estimating the size of those groups and their vote choices. The polls' estimates of turnout overall will be relevant as well.

In the end there may be no smoking gun. Those polls may have been accurate, but done in by a superior get-out-the-vote effort, or by very late deciders whose motivations may or may not ever be known. They may have been inaccurate because of bad modeling, compromised sampling, or simply an overabundance of enthusiasm for Obama on the heels of his Iowa victory that led his would-be supporters to overstate their propensity to turn out. (A function, perhaps, of youth.)

Prof. Jon Krosnick of Stanford University has another argument: That the order of names on the New Hampshire ballot - in which, by random draw, Clinton was toward the top, Obama at the bottom - netted her about 3 percentage points more than she'd have gotten otherwise. That's not enough to explain the gap in some of the polls, which presumably randomized candidate names, but it might hold part of the answer.

The data may tell us; it may not. What's beyond question is that it is incumbent on us - and particularly on the producers of the New Hampshire pre-election polls - to look at the data, and to look closely, and to do it without prejudging.

January 9, 2008 | Permalink | User Comments (529)

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[Nyani Ngabu]

Kwa hiyo unaniambia Obama ana nafasi kubwa ya kushinda uchaguzi mkuu? If so, what states do you see him winning to get the enough electoral votes?

 

[Icadon]

Kwa hiyo unaniambia Obama ana nafasi kubwa ya kushinda uchaguzi mkuu? If so, what states do you see him winning to get the enough electoral votes?

Swali lako liweke pending mpaka SC primary, Mungu akipenda nitakuwa SC siku ya polls.

By the way kusema ukweli..Obama akiwa nominated kuna shughuli tena nzito sana kwenye states za kusini(especially vijijini), inanikumbusha mambo ya Buford na Forsyth County.

 

[JokaKuu]

Masanja,Susuviri,Mlalahoi,Kitila Mkumbo,Nyani Ngabu,

..nafikiri hii na kura ya hasira ya wananchi, na haswa wanawake, dhidi ya watu wa media.

..maswali anayoulizwa Hillary ni mazito kulinganisha na yale ya wapinzani wake. Kwanini?

..kwenye debate Sen.Edwards anamsakama Hillary, mshindi wa tatu wa Iowa, badala ya Obama mshindi wa kwanza. Kwanini?

..wanawake hawapendi kabisa kuona mwenzao anashambuliwa na wanaume wawili/watatu in public[television.] hicho ndicho kilichotokea kwenye debate, na response yake ni hizi kura za New Hampshire.


..nilishangaa sana kwenye CNN walipokuwa wakimzungumzia Hillary, hakuna hata mwandishi mmoja aliyekuwa akimtetea. Yaani CNN imegeuzwa kijiwe cha wachangiaji wenye "beef" na Hillary.

..WACHAWI WA OBAMA NI SEN.EDWARDS AND THE ANTI-HILLARY SURROGATES IN THE MEDIA.

 

[Pundit]

Ukitaka kujua kazi aliyo nayo Obama kumbuka (kama umeangalia) au nenda kaangalie Chris Rock's movie Head of State. Kuna scene inaonyesha wazungu waliokuwa hata hawana mpango wa kupiga kura kusikia tu mtu mweusi anataka kuwa rais walikimbia wote kutoka majumbani kwenda kupiga kura.

I believe there is a big "Head of State" effect awaiting Obama in the red states.Kuna watu hawaambiwi progress, articulate wala Harvard.Ukiwa Harvard graduate mweusi ndiyo wanakuchukia zaidi.

 

[JokaKuu]

Sasa nipatie ile 35 years expereince anayoizungumzia Hilary ni ya nini - expereince ya kuwa Bill's wife? Maana that must be quite an experience but not the right kind!

Susuviri,

..wakati Clinton anagombea Uraisi mwaka 1998 alisema kitu kama "vote for Bill and get Hillary for free." Maana yake ni kwamba Hillary alikuwa ni MBIA wake wa kudumu ktk SIASA.

..Kuna kipindi Bill Clinton alishindwa uchaguzi na kwa kweli alichanganyikiwa kimaisha. Hillary and a Republican consultant Dick Morris, ndiyo alimsaidia kurudi tena kuwa govenor wa arkansas.

..Bill Clinton alitaka kufanya mabadiliko makubwa sana ktk Health care system ya USA. Kazi hiyo hakumpa Cabinet Secretary yeyote bali Hillary Clinton. Hiyo inaonyesha kwamba huyu Mama uwezo anao.

..Health Care reforms alizo-propose Hillary Clinton zilifeli kutokana na sababu kubwa ya msingi nayo ni naivete ya Hillary wakati ule kwamba, everybody in politics wants to serve the people and do good.

..Wanawake wa Marekani hawapendi kabisa kashfa dhidi ya wenzao wali-sacrifice career zao ili kuwasaidia waume zao, au kutunza familia. Hivi karibuni nimeshuhudia kashfa dhidi ya Hillary kwa uamuzi wake wa kusaidia political career ya Bill Clinton.

..ACHENI KUMKASHIFU HUYU MAMA. MNAPOFANYA HIVYO MNATUNYIMA NAFASI YA KUFURAHIA MAFANIKIO YA OBAMA.

 

[Nyani Ngabu]

Mimi nasema hivi Obama akipata nomination the GOP will breathe a sigh of relief. Halafu watu wanadhani Red states ni kusini tu...kalaghabao!! Hizo zinazoitwa purple states (kama Iowa na Minnesota) msishangae zika-turn red siku ya uchaguzi mkuu kama yupo kwenye tiketi. If you thought the map was red in the last 2 elections...wait until you this one after the election. Mark my words...Yaani kama mlidhani GOP wako energized na Clinton...think again....Obama akiwa nominated siku ya uahaguzi kutakuwa na record turn out ambayo haijawahi kutokea...and that is bad news for Obama

 

[Geeque]

Jana nilikuwa naangalia ile speech ya Mama Hillary Choked-ham Clinton, kusema ukweli bora ni-vote Republican kwa Mccain kuliko yule mama. Mama anaboa.

 

[Kitila Mkumbo]

Masanja,Susuviri,Mlalahoi,Kitila Mkumbo,Nyani Ngabu,

..nafikiri hii na kura ya hasira ya wananchi, na haswa wanawake, dhidi ya watu wa media.

..maswali anayoulizwa Hillary ni mazito kulinganisha na yale ya wapinzani wake. Kwanini?

..kwenye debate Sen.Edwards anamsakama Hillary, mshindi wa tatu wa Iowa, badala ya Obama mshindi wa kwanza. Kwanini?

..wanawake hawapendi kabisa kuona mwenzao anashambuliwa na wanaume wawili/watatu in public[television.] hicho ndicho kilichotokea kwenye debate, na response yake ni hizi kura za New Hampshire.


..nilishangaa sana kwenye CNN walipokuwa wakimzungumzia Hillary, hakuna hata mwandishi mmoja aliyekuwa akimtetea. Yaani CNN imegeuzwa kijiwe cha wachangiaji wenye "beef" na Hillary.

..WACHAWI WA OBAMA NI SEN.EDWARDS AND THE ANTI-HILLARY SURROGATES IN THE MEDIA.

Ndio maana sasa wapiga kura wameamua kuwakomesha. Wenyewe wanafikiri wanamsaidia Obama kumbe ndio wanamuua kabisa. Ngoja tusubiri. Nawahurumia sana jamaa zangu ambao walipagaishwa na ushindi wa Obama kwenye state moja, bado tunasafari ndefu kujua michezo hii ya siasa. Nimefurahia sana analysis yako na ile ya gwiji Ngabu Nyani. Nyie inaelekea haya mambo ya urais wa US mnayaelewa kuliko wengi wetu hapa ambao tunasukumwa zaidi na ushabiki, Mimi sasa nimeamua kusoma article za "Real Clear Politics", hawa nao wanafanya analysis yenye akili, na nipekee waliobashiru ugumu wa Obama kushinda NH. Kuna kitabu kipya pia kizuri sana kinasema "Why we are excited about Obama and why he can't win? Hii kitabu pia kimekwaenda deep sana kwenye siasa za US.

 

[Icadon]

Mimi nasema hivi Obama akipata nomination the GOP will breathe a sigh of relief. Halafu watu wanadhani Red states ni kusini tu...kalaghabao!! Hizo zinazoitwa purple states (kama Iowa na Minnesota) msishangae zika-turn red siku ya uchaguzi mkuu kama yupo kwenye tiketi. If you thought the map was red in the last 2 elections...wait until you this one after the election. Mark my words...Yaani kama mlidhani GOP wako energized na Clinton...think again....Obama akiwa nominated siku ya uahaguzi kutakuwa na record turn out ambayo haijawahi kutokea...and that is bad news for Obama

Perfect Example New Hampshire!!

 

[Kitila Mkumbo]

Jana nilikuwa naangalia ile speech ya Mama Hillary Choked-ham Clinton, kusema ukweli bora ni-vote Republican kwa Mccain kuliko yule mama. Mama anaboa.

Wengine naona waliifurahia sana, ndio hivyo tena wewe ukiona kengeza, wengine wanaona kisura, na ndio raha ya mchezo wa siasa, ukipendwa na wote ukipata ushindi hutaufurahia sana!

 

[Geeque]

Wengine naona waliifurahia sana, ndio hivyo tena wewe ukiona kengeza, wengine wanaona kisura, na ndio raha ya mchezo wa siasa, ukipendwa na wote ukipata ushindi hutaufurahia sana!

Naona na leo pia mume wa Hillary Choked-ham Clinton, Pres. Bill Playboy Clinton nae kajifanya kuwa emotional. Hizi political stunts zao kutuletea emotion za kuchi kuch hotahe zinaboa sasa. Tumsubiri Chelsea Clinton nae atoe chozi LIVE hahahaha.

 

[Koba]

..si mchezo binadamu kila siku tunataka kuwa upande wa winner tuu,siku mbili tuu baada ya Iowa watu walianza kusema mama is a done deal and nobody is goin to stop Obama na ni almost all pundits katika hizo major newsnetworks,leo kashinda mama basi looooh salaleeeh mpaka jambo mnasema theres no way Obama atashinda kwa sababu ni mweusi...Obama endelea kushindilia mwanangu ukishinda wote watajiunga tuu na hakuna cha rangi wala nini,sasa mnataka kusema wote waliompigia kura Obama nao vipi kwani hawakujua ni mtu mweusi,acheni mawazo yasiyo na nafasi ila ni kweli kuna watu najua hawatapiga kwa sababu ya rangi lakini the same kwa wengine nao hawatapigia Clinton kwa sababu ni mweupe au mwanamke...kumbukeni more than 90% waliopiga kura both states ni wazungu na ukichanganya kura na delegate still Obama yuko mbele,kwa hiyo hapo mnasemaje ? bado mnaleta rangi tuu au vipi,na mkumbuke weusi marekani ni kama 10% tuu kwa hiyo watakaompigia kura obama ni wazungu ili ashinde na sio weusi...kazi ipo maana bado mnashindwa kutoka kwenye mawazo ya kibaguzi na kufikiria wazungu wote still wanafikiria rangi tuu,angalia kama massachussets governor ni mweusi na ile ni state ya wazungu mbona alimmwaga mzungu au mnataka mshinde kila uchaguzi ndio mjue sio kila mzungu anafikiria rangi...poleni sana lakini sishangai inawezekana weusi ni wabaguzi kuliko na mfano mdogo ni miss tanzania maana dada wa watu alivyosemwa sina hamu na ni rangi tuu na sasa hivi nasikia waziri mtukufu katangaza kisago kwa wachina badala ya kuatafuta wavunja sheria yeye anatafuta wachina wa kariakoo(he's a moron),kazi ipo na ninachukia ubaguzi kweli kweli.

 

[Nyani Ngabu]

Oyaaa...mimi muda wote sijasema kwamba hawezi kupata nomination...hiyo anaweza akapata. Mimi nasema yeye kushinda uchaguzi mkuu ni vigumu sana kiasi kwamba ninakuwa na imani haiwezekani. Nina sababu zangu kusema kwamba hawezi kushinda uchaguzi mkuu dhidi ya Republican moja ikiwa yeye kama Democrat, yuko liberal zaidi hata ya mama Clinton. Nowadays it's nearly impossible to win the US presidency if you are not a centrist. Once the GOP attack machine labels you a liberal...you're done.