US Election Coverage 2008

[Koba]

Kwa hiyo unaniambia Obama ana nafasi kubwa ya kushinda uchaguzi mkuu? If so, what states do you see him winning to get the enough electoral votes?

...New York,California,Minnesota,Illinois,Michigan,Pa etc,unaonekana huamini kabisa wazungu ni mawazo sawa kama yale maredneck ya southern,hii nchi ukiwa mzembe mzembe na nja nja na hujasoma,huna pesa na hufuati sheria lazima ubaguzi ukufuate

 

[Nyani Ngabu]

...New York,California,Minnesota,Illinois,Michigan,Pa etc,unaonekana huamini kabisa wazungu ni mawazo sawa kama yale maredneck ya southern,hii nchi ukiwa mzembe mzembe na nja nja na hujasoma,huna pesa na hufuati sheria lazima ubaguzi ukufuate

Wewe ndugu yangu ubaguzi upo hadi kwa waliosoma halafu tena hao ndio wabaya zaidi. Hawavai majoho tena bali wanatinga Italian suits na wanafanya kazi Wall Street. Umewahi kusikia Institutional and systemic racism? Sasa kama hamniamini kwamba Obama hawezi kushinda uchaguzi mkuu, I rest my case hadi Novemba. Mtamkumbuka Ngabu...

 

[Koba]

Wewe ndugu yangu ubaguzi upo hadi kwa waliosoma halafu tena hao ndio wabaya zaidi. Hawavai majoho tena bali wanatinga Italian suits na wanafanya kazi Wall Street. Umewahi kusikia Institutional and systemic racism? Sasa kama hamniamini kwamba Obama hawezi kushinda uchaguzi mkuu, I rest my case hadi Novemba. Mtamkumbuka Ngabu...

kwa hiyo kwako Obama lazima ashinde ili kuamini kuwa racism is not a factor ...naamini akishindwa atakuwa ameshindwa tuu ila sio kuanza kuleta visingizio vya rangi hapa,na huko wall Street mbona huwataji CEOs weusi ambao wamefanikiwa sana na kuendesha Companies kubwa kabisa hapa ulimwenguni na wapo wengi tuu kuanzia Merril Lynch mpaka Time warner ingawaje wengine wameshaacha au unataka CEOs wote wawe weusi

 

[Masatu]

Will someone wake me up in November when its all over... I cant take it anymore...not bcoz i dont care la hasha bali ningependa Obama ashinde lakini wapi hatoshinda!

 

[Icadon]

Jan 9, 2:24 PM (ET)

By NEDRA PICKLER and KATHLEEN HENNESSEY

LAS VEGAS (AP) - Presidential candidate Barack Obama has won the support of the 60,000-member Culinary Workers Union in Nevada, a coup for the Democrat that could boost his candidacy against Hillary Rodham Clinton in the state's nominating contest.

Leaders of the Culinary Workers Union, Local 226 were to announce the endorsement at a news conference in Las Vegas Wednesday, the day after Obama narrowly lost the New Hampshire primary to Clinton, said a Democrat close to the union.

A union official said the endorsement was on behalf of the union and its parent, UNITE HERE, which claims 450,000 active members. It's Obama's first endorsement from a major national union.

"Our organization and our members will do everything in our power to see that he reaches the White House this fall, because we know he will bring working Americans with him, " UNITE HERE president Bruce Raynor said.

The move could affect the race in Nevada, where Clinton has long enjoyed solid support from the Democratic establishment and a hefty lead in the polls. Obama has sought support there outside the pool of experienced activists.

The union, representing hotel, restaurant and laundry workers in Nevada's casino industry, is the largest and best organized labor group in the state. It has the potential of steering thousands of voters to the state's Jan. 19 caucus.

"The technology they use is shoe leather," said Ted Jelen, a political science professor at the University of Nevada, Las Vegas. "This is an experienced and politically savvy outfit."

The union's skeptics point to its large number of immigrants, roughly 45 percent, and suggest many are not registered to vote. They also note the union has left itself little time to rally its ranks around Obama.

It was still unclear Wednesday whether the Clinton campaign, fresh off its surprise win in New Hampshire, would compete at full throttle in Nevada. As the Clinton camp seemed headed toward a New Hampshire loss early Tuesday, it contemplated pulling resources out of Nevada and South Carolina to focus on Feb. 5 states.

In a sign that Clinton was, at least for now, still in the fight, her Nevada campaign came up with a counterpunch to the Culinary announcement.

Democratic Rep. Shelley Berkley announced her support of Clinton on a conference call with reporters. Berkley, who represents Las Vegas, and Nevada Sen. Harry Reid, had said they would stay neutral.

Obama also picked up the endorsement of the Nevada chapter of the Service Employees International Union, which voted to endorse him Tuesday.

The unions' decisions are a blow to former Sen. John Edwards, who finished third in New Hampshire and is struggling to prevent a two-person race between Obama and Clinton.

Edwards had attempted to position himself as the labor candidate in a state where nearly two-thirds of Democratic voters are union members.

With labor now split, Edwards is outmanned by the better-funded Obama and Clinton operations. He has not yet run television ads here, while Clinton and Obama have been airing positive, introductory commercials for three weeks.

Aides say Edwards plans to spend most of his time in the next week campaigning in South Carolina, the state where he was born, ahead of its Jan. 26 Democratic primary.

The role of unions is amplified by the expectation that relatively few caucus-goers will show up in Nevada, a previously irrelevant contest that has never played a significant role in picking the nominee. Even among Democrats who say they are engaged in the race, many don't know what a caucus is or why Nevada's matters.

State party officials and campaigns are not expecting more than 10 percent of registered Democrats, around 45,000 people, to participate.

Awareness is even spottier on the Republican side. The Nevada Republican Party's caucus has been overshadowed by the primary in South Carolina, which shares the Jan. 19 date. The GOP field has given Nevada little attention.

Clinton has visited the state eight times, Obama nine. New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson has spent the most time on the ground. Richardson played up his experience with Western issues and made a strong push among the state's Hispanic community.

That group's turnout will be closely watched on caucus day. Hispanics make up nearly a quarter of Nevada's population, but far less of its electorate. The Culinary union and the state party have been working to register Hispanic voters for months.

Clinton has secured some key endorsements from local Hispanic leaders and recently won the backing of an influential Spanish-language newspaper.

---

Associated Press Writer Jesse J. Holland in Washington contributed to this report.

 

[Kitila Mkumbo]

Wazungu hawa wa Marekani waliofumbua macho mateso ya waafrika kule Afrika Kusini for all those years leo ghafla eti tunaambiwa wameshaacha ubaguzi? ngoja nisubiri nione, inawezekana mimi naishi kizazi kingine!

 

[Icadon]

Wazungu hawa wa Marekani waliofumbua macho mateso ya waafrika kule Afrika Kusini for all those years leo ghafla eti tunaambiwa wameshaacha ubaguzi? ngoja nisubiri nione, inawezekana mimi naishi kizazi kingine!

Kitila its an interesting race maana kuna hardliners ambao nao sidhani kama wako tayari kumuona POTUS mwanamke.

Bush sr 4
Clinton 8
Bush jr 8
say HRC naye anashinda, 8
Tunazungumzia miaka 28 ya familia mbili baada ya hapo watakuja washirika wa pande zote mbili nao sijui watapewa miaka mingapi mingapi.
Tukitulia vizuri George P Bush naye anaingiza timu.
Patamu hapo!!!

 

[Capitol Hill]

Icadon..nashukuru sana kwa ku hit kwenye point. Wanapozungumzia change wana-maanisha sura mpya, mawazo mapya, influence mpya white house na sio the Clintons and the Bushes...niliiandika hii kule nyuma. Thanks for seeing it too.

 

[Nyani Ngabu]

Kitila its an interesting race maana kuna hardliners ambao nao sidhani kama wako tayari kumuona POTUS mwanamke.

Bush sr 4
Clinton 8
Bush jr 8
say HRC naye anashinda, 8
Tunazungumzia miaka 28 ya familia mbili baada ya hapo watakuja washirika wa pande zote mbili nao sijui watapewa miaka mingapi mingapi.
Tukitulia vizuri George P Bush naye anaingiza timu.
Patamu hapo!!!

Kabla ya P Bush kuna Jeb...dingi yake...upo hapo?

 

[YNIM]

Kabla ya P Bush kuna Jeb...dingi yake...upo hapo?

Baba wa Bush Sr yaani babu wa Joji Kichaka alikuwa senator toka Connecticut, Senator Prescot Bush(late).......ndio maana kuna mvt ya upuuzi huu lazima uishe, maana hawa wanaweka precedence ambayo ndio inaigwa/kutaka kuigwa na wafalme wannabez kule kwetu Africa.

 

[Icadon]

Kabla ya P Bush kuna Jeb...dingi yake...upo hapo?

Jeb wakati wake ulikuwa huu, miaka nane ijayo atakuwa na miaka 62 na atakuwa amekaa sana nje ya ulingo wa siasa ila huwezi kujua kila kitu kinawezekana kwenye siasa.

 

[WembeMkali]

Nani anasema ubaguzi wa rangi haupo Marekani? Bado kuna wazungu wengi wanaamini kabisa kuwa mtu mweusi hawezi kuwa kiongozi wa Taifa lao.Na ndiyo maana baada ya yule mama kulia machozi wazungu wakamwelewa haraka na kubadilisha msimamo wao na kumpa kura.
Barack Obama ni smart guy huwezi kabisa kumlinganisha na yule mama hata mama mwenyewe anakubali hilo ila mama anacheza kitu kinaitwa "race card". Hebu jiulize tu kwa usmart aliokuwa nao Obama kama angekuwa mzungu tayari angeshapitishwa bila ya taaabu yoyote.
Vijana wa kizungu wanaelekea kumwelewa obama ila wale wazee wabaguzi bado kazi ipo...tusubiri tuone

-Wembe

 

[Nyani Ngabu]

Ubaguzi haujalishi vijana wala wazee. Mtu kama ni mbaguzi ni mbaguzi tu. Mbona hate crimes zinatendwa na vijana...James Bird kule Jasper,Texas aliburutwa na kuuliwa na vijana. Ninaanza kupatwa na wasiwasi kuwa baada ya mchakato wa kumpata nominee kutakuwa na mgawanyiko ndani ya Democratic party.

 

[Koba]

Wazungu hawa wa Marekani waliofumbua macho mateso ya waafrika kule Afrika Kusini for all those years leo ghafla eti tunaambiwa wameshaacha ubaguzi? ngoja nisubiri nione, inawezekana mimi naishi kizazi kingine!

...inawezekana kweli unaishi kizazi kingine,waliopiga kura Iowa & new hampishire 96% ni wazungu na total vote Obama anaongoza,kwa hiyo hao karibu 100% walio vote kwa Obama ni weusi au vipi? acheni kucheza race card hapo lakini the good thing Obama is not a looser kucheza hizo cheap shot amabazo mnataka kuzileta hapa,seems mpaka ashinde ndio mtasema hakuna ubaguzi,haya tena tutaweka affirmative action kwenye vote na kura moja ya Hillary ni sawa na mbili za Obama

 

[Koba]

.
Barack Obama ni smart guy huwezi kabisa kumlinganisha na yule mama hata mama mwenyewe anakubali hilo ila mama anacheza kitu kinaitwa "race card". -Wembe

...acha uzushi wewe,naona wewe ndio unaleta race card hapo,watu kama nyie ndio mnafanya Obama ashindwe maana mnataka kufanya this is btn black & white,good thing Obama is ahead na hizo politics za sorry ass!

 

[BAK]

How the pollsters got it so wrong in New Hampshire

Richard Adams in Washington
Thursday January 10, 2008
Guardian Unlimited


As the votes in New Hampshire were counted on Tuesday night, revealing a surge for Hillary Clinton, a single question erupted from the mouths of the punditocracy: how did the opinion polls get it so wrong?
It wouldn't be the first time that polls have badly misjudged a final result. John Major's 1992 victory in Britain was one of a series that stretches back to Harry Truman's unheralded 1948 presidential victory, epitomised by the famous image of Truman holding a newspaper headlined "Dewey defeats Truman" on the night of the election.

But the drama of Clinton's slim 39% to 36% victory over Barack Obama in the Democratic primary wrong-footed many in the media who had anticipated an Obama triumph following his comfortable win in the Iowa caucuses just five days before, and reinforced by polling data that showed - without exception - Obama in the lead.
Several polls of Democratic voters gave Obama a double-digit margin over Clinton. One late poll, carried out by Zogby International - which bills itself as "the gold standard in political polling" - put Obama as high as 42% and Clinton lagging on 29%. An average of all the polls in the days leading up to the vote gave Obama 39% and Clinton barely 30%

Since many of the same polling organisations correctly forecast John McCain's victory in the Republican primary in New Hampshire, their failure to come close in the Democratic election looked even more stark. Even private polling conducted by the Clinton campaign showed a wide margin backing Obama, and usually reliable exit polls suggested an Obama victory.

Karlyn Bowman, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute in Washington and a specialist on opinion polling, said there were a range of explanations that could explain the discrepancy, although she admitted: "Frankly, I don't know which is correct."

Previously undecided voters could have decided to back Clinton in large numbers. The final polls in New Hampshire were conducted on Sunday, two days before the election, and so may have failed to gauge the late shift towards Clinton - as happened in the 1980 election between Ronald Reagan and Jimmy Carter.

Frank Newport of Gallup told USA Today that the polls may have failed to pick up two significant events: the Democratic candidates' debate on Saturday evening, and Clinton's much-publicised emotional moment in a diner on Monday.

The record turnout by Democratic voters on Thursday may have also upset the pollsters' careful sampling of likely voters. One explanation is that they failed to give enough weight in their samples for the number of women who voted, a group which strongly supported Clinton according to exit polls and accounted for her margin of victory.

Women voters outpolled male voters by 57% to 43% in the Democratic primary. Clinton collected the support of nearly half of that group, compared with the less than a third who supported Obama. Although Obama similarly outpolled Clinton among men, their lower turnout meant he got fewer votes as a result.

The 57% turnout among women, though, was not unprecedented for the Democratic party in recent years.

"It's at the top of the range but it's not unusual," said Bowman. "The Democratic party is now overwhelmingly female."

A study of data since 2004, carried out by Gallup last year, found that women made up 60% of Democratic party supporters, while men made up just 40%. Self-described independents and Republicans, on the other hand, had a 52% to 48% male-female ratio.

The internet buzzed with more sinister explanations for the upset, with bloggers raising the so-called "Bradley effect" - a reference to the dramatic loss by the black Los Angeles mayor Tom Bradley in the 1982 California governor's race after polls had given him a wide lead over his white Republican rival.

The Bradley effect suggests that white voters disguise their intentions from pollsters when a black candidate is in an election. In the case of New Hampshire the unusually high proportion of "undecided" voters - as much as 20% - may have concealed some of those hostile to Obama.

"I think it's very naive to dismiss the racial factors in this," said Larry Sabato, professor of politics at the University of Virginia.

In mayoral races in New York, a governor's election in Virginia and a senate race in North Carolina, the final vote for the black candidate agreed with previous polling. It was support for the white opponent that experienced a strong, undetected surge when voters enter the privacy of the polling booth. Several bloggers suggested that scenario closely fits the Obama-Clinton race in New Hampshire.

But analysis into the Bradley effect by the Pew Research Centre last year suggested that, while potent in the 1980s and 1990s, the effect had faded.

As well as winning a larger share of undecided voters and women, Clinton may have benefitted from defecting supporters of John Edwards, who polled just 17%. Combined with usual polling margins of error, those effects may explain the difference.

"In the end there may be no smoking gun," Gary Langer, director of polling at ABC News, wrote yesterday. "Those polls may have been accurate, but done in by a superior get-out-the-vote effort, or by very late deciders whose motivations may or may not ever be known."

The Obama campaign yesterday rejected any suggestions of a Bradley effect, and instead argued that the big margins of victory forecast for Obama may have made his supporters complacent.

There is a prosaic explanation advanced by Stanford University professor Jon Krosnick. His research into previous New Hampshire primaries found a big effect from the order of names on the ballot paper, with top candidates getting 3% more votes than those at the bottom.

In previous years New Hampshire had rotated the order of names on the ballots in different precincts - but this year all the ballots were the same. Hillary Clinton was top of the list and Obama near the bottom of a list of 21 names in total.

"I'll bet that Clinton got at least 3% more votes than Obama simply because she was listed close to the top," Prof Krosnick told ABC News.

 

[WembeMkali]

...acha uzushi wewe,naona wewe ndio unaleta race card hapo,watu kama nyie ndio mnafanya Obama ashindwe maana mnataka kufanya this is btn black & white,good thing Obama is ahead na hizo politics za sorry ass!

Koba,
Sisi hapa hatubadilishi hii issue ya uchaguzi kuwa kati ya blacks and white labda umetupata vibaya.
Obama bado anakubalika pande zote ILA tunataka kukufahamisha tu kuwa race ina play part in American politics!
wake up!!

-Wembe

 

[Kitila Mkumbo]

...inawezekana kweli unaishi kizazi kingine,waliopiga kura Iowa & new hampishire 96% ni wazungu na total vote Obama anaongoza,kwa hiyo hao karibu 100% walio vote kwa Obama ni weusi au vipi? acheni kucheza race card hapo lakini the good thing Obama is not a looser kucheza hizo cheap shot amabazo mnataka kuzileta hapa,seems mpaka ashinde ndio mtasema hakuna ubaguzi,haya tena tutaweka affirmative action kwenye vote na kura moja ya Hillary ni sawa na mbili za Obama

Wewe naona unajaribu kubishana na ukweli na kamwe huwezi kuushinda ukweli; Angalia huyu professor wa huko anavyosema: "I think it's very naive to dismiss the racial factors in this," said Larry Sabato, professor of politics at the University of Virginia.

Sasa wewe na huyo professor anayeishi kwa ku-analyse haya mambo nani mjanja? Tena unazidi kuonyesha naivety zaidi kwa kufikiria kuwa kwa kuwa wazungu wengi walimpigia Obama pale Iowa basi ndio ushahidi kwamba hakuna racism US, this is too simplistic beyond comprehension. Ndio maana Wembe anakwambia "wake up"! Ukiweka ushabiki kidogo pembeni unaweza kuanza kuona tunaongea nini. Tunatambua uwezo na tunapenda sana Obama ashinde, lakini hii haitufanyi tusione vikwazo vinavyomkabili katika safari yake ukiwemo ubaguzi wa rangi.

 

[Koba]

...endeleeni kuplay race victim,na wala sijabisha na ninajua racism is well & alive ila to cry baby racism kwenye race kama hii nafikiri ni ujinga wa hali ya juu,unafikiri Obama alivyoingia alikuwa hajui whats coming? tatizo ni pale watu kama nyie mnaanza kulalamika race foul bila evidence yeyote na ndio maana Obama haongelei race katika campaign zake ila ikitokea utasikia,mjomba huku hatukai kulalamika tuu kwa sababu tunafikiria this or that,ikija we'll confront it effectivelly ila sio kuanza kuplay race card victim kwenye campaign kubwa kama hii!

 

[Katibu Tarafa]

ningekuwa sijawahi kuishi na kufanyakazi na wazungu,ningekubali obama atashinda lakini kwa njisi ninavyo wajua hawa wazungu OBAMA hanakitu pale.