By Howard Kurtz
Washington Post Staff Writer
Friday, January 4, 2008; 8:26 AM
It's a very big win for Barack Obama, in part because he knocked off the former first lady and in part because the media have been hankering to write the upset story.
But remember all the pundits taking Hillary Clinton's inevitability for granted most of the year, and despairing during the summer and fall that Obama could never catch up because he wasn't pummeling her? He never hammered Hillary all that hard, and he still caught up.
Hillary still has a national lead, but can that survive the media tsunami about her third-place finish?
For close to 11 months, the media essentially ignored Mike Huckabee, who just breezed to a surprisingly easy win in the Iowa caucuses despite being outspent by 20 to 1. Heck of a job, gang.
Huckabee was so strong that Mitt Romney conceded on Fox News at 8:57 last night, with only 15 percent of caucuses reporting. Romney congratulated Huckabee and used his line about having started in the single digits--but that was before he spent many months and many millions in an effort to sew up Iowa.
Three minutes later, MSNBC and then CNN projected Huck the winner, and he got a siren on Drudge.
It's a remarkable tale. The commentators still think Huckabee may go nowhere after this, but don't we in the news business look short-sighted for treating him as an asterisk for so long? He was good for comic relief--the wisecracking, bass-playing, weight-losing preacher man--but he couldn't win, could he?
The media ridicule--about the negative ad he pulled but still played, about his decision to ditch Des Moines for Leno--didn't matter much in the end.
We in the news business made the same mistake we've made so many times before, overvaluing money and organization. Phil Gramm was going to be huge in 1996 because of his war chest. Howard Dean was virtually guaranteed to win because he had raised the then-unimaginable sum of $40 million. But in the end, message and personality can trump fat checkbooks and precinct workers.
We cling to those benchmarks because they feel real. We overvalue early polls, which can change in a heartbeat, as Huckabee just demonstrated.
The three cable networks called the Democratic race for Obama at 9:28. Suddenly there was talk about race, which in my view most of the media had studiously avoided for months.
"For a black man to win the Iowa caucus is astounding," Juan Williams said. Donna Brazile called it "a victory for national reconciliation." White commentators reminded viewers that Iowa is an overwhelmingly white state.
Suddenly the pundits were full of advice for Hillary: She needs to emphasize trust. She needs to put her husband aside. She can't compete against Obama's inspirational message. She has to be more emotional. ("She needs a personality transplant," Fred Barnes sniffed.)
Laura Ingraham said she met Republicans who had voted for Obama, and that this was trouble for the GOP.
At 10:20, John Edwards gave a rousing fight speech against corporate greed and, following Elizabeth's lead, claimed second place (though that was unclear at that point), never quite managing to congratulate Obama.
Seconds later it was Hillary's turn. With 1992's self-proclaimed comeback kid at her side, she managed to look exhilarated. She spoke about change. She congratulated Obama and the other Democrats. She repeated her slogan about "the best president on day one." Then it was laundry list time: Quality affordable health care, energy policy, global warming, the unfunded mandate known as No Child Left Behind. It Takes a Village.
This is the first race she's ever lost. Now we'll see what she's made of.
Huckabee, flanked by Chuck Norris, was next. He didn't do shtick. He graciously thanked his wife Janet. He chided "the pundits" for insisting that for anyone outspent by at least 15 to 1, it was "simply impossible to overcome that mountain of money." He talked about change and inclusiveness and the founders and his parents' sacrifice and loving America. For many viewers, it was probably their first look at Huck.
It was part Jimmy Stewart, Chris Matthews said.
No one saw Romney's speech, about winning the silver instead of the gold, because he spoke when Huckabee was speaking. These things don't happen by accident.
Obama emerged with his family just after 11. "They said this day would never come," he began. He didn't mention race. He didn't have to.
He hit the unity theme hard, red states and blue states, hope over fear. Taking back the government. It was a serious speech, not a self-congratulatory one, an oration punctuated by a smile only when he thanked "the love of my life," Michelle. His only reference to civil rights was to Selma and Montgomery in a litany of great American events, leading into his reference to "a father from Kenya and a mother from Kansas."
"That was a goose-bump moment for me," Gene Robinson said of the speech on MSNBC.
Hillary could not have reached those rhetorical heights, even if she had won. That's just a fact. She's just built differently as a candidate.
Biden and Dodd are gone. Today is the media's What It All Means day. That leaves a three-day campaign in New Hampshire.
New York Times: "The Democratic and Republican establishments and their presidential candidates, Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton and former Gov. Mitt Romney, were brought low in Iowa on Thursday night, shaken seriously by two national newcomers who won decisively on messages of insurgency and change.
"The victors of Iowa, Senator Barack Obama for the Democrats and former Gov. Mike Huckabee for the Republicans, were as far from the status quo as possible: The son of a Kenyan father and a white Kansan who entered the United States Senate just two years ago, and a former Baptist minister who was best known until recently for losing over 100 pounds and taking on the issue of childhood obesity.
"The two winners burst the aura of strength and confidence that Mrs. Clinton and Mr. Romney had cultivated for months." And which the media were all too happy to convey.
Chicago Tribune: "In the end, Iowans voted for a smile.
"They chose conciliation over combat, personality over pedigree, hope over fear. They voted for the new, with fervor. Whether that sets a tone for the campaign to come is far from certain--in fact things could get harsh in a hurry. But at least on this cold night, there was a powerful suggestion that voters were intrigued by a different kind of politics, particularly independents who increasingly say they are weary of the old partisan fights."
Boston Globe: "The triumphs of Obama, a freshman senator who four years ago was serving in the Illinois legislature, and Huckabee, the little-known former governor of Arkansas, were dazzling and even historic in their own ways: Each struck a rich vein of anti-Washington feeling in Iowa and withstood strong challenges from far more famous opponents."
Washington Times: "Mike Huckabee scored a stunning victory in Iowa's Republican presidential caucuses last night, topping Mitt Romney in a result that would have been unimaginable just two months ago."
Now, who exactly failed to imagine it?
Slate's John Dickerson: "The big question of Barack Obama's campaign has always been whether his high-flying rhetoric could ever produce real results. Sure, he could create crowds visible from space, but during the summer--when his polls flattened and his backers got nervous--political elites wondered whether he had peaked. He was the girl you dated, not the girl you married, plenty of political analysts told me.
"Not any more."
You know how infallible those analysts are.
Salon's Walter Shapiro: "Despite her third-place finish in Iowa (a hairsbreadth behind John Edwards), Clinton remains a formidable foe with the money, institutional backing and comeback-kid tenacity to battle Obama through the Feb. 5 primaries and beyond. Political handicapping always carries the danger of overreacting to the last burst of news -- and 'Hillary in a Hil' of a Fix' is certain to become the next campaign narrative."
Politico on the GOP's "demolition derby": "There is Huckabee, who must now try to turn what has been mostly a personality-based campaign into an effective national organization with appeal beyond the religious conservatives who formed the basis of his victory here. There is Romney, who now must find a new rationale for a candidacy that was based almost entirely on the prospect of scoring early victories in Iowa and New Hampshire and turning that into a national movement. There is McCain, who has been surging in recent polls in New Hampshire -- a state that is only looking more favorable for him after Romney's Hawkeye State humiliation."
Insta-punditry:
Arianna, who can't stand Hillary: "Even if your candidate didn't win tonight, you have reason to celebrate. We all do.
"Barack Obama's stirring victory in Iowa -- down home, folksy, farm-fed, Midwestern, and 92 percent white Iowa -- says a lot about America, and also about the current mindset of the American voter . . .
" . . . the Clintons -- their Hillary-as-incumbent-strategy sputtering -- followed the Bush blueprint in Iowa and played the fear card again and again and again.
"Be afraid of Obama, they warned us. Be afraid of something new, something different."
National Review's Ramesh Ponnuru: "I don't see how Romney can recover from this loss. McCain was already running ahead in New Hampshire. If Romney loses both, he's gone."
Rich Lowry, who endorsed Romney: "Huckabee made the right choice to be bold and stay in the news at the end as opposed to Mitt's safer approach."
Andrew Sullivan on Hillary: "She doesn't have the experience to win a campaign and she doesn't have the change message to prevail. If you think back two months, would you have believed this result?
"This black man won an overwhelmingly white vote in Iowa. Whatever else heappens, he has made history tonight."
Mark Halperin got hold of the caucus-day talking points for Hillary and Obama, and here's how HRC planned to spin a loss:
" Q: What happens if Hillary doesn't do well tonight?
" A: Well although Hillary started out, and remains ahead, nationally, Hillary started out behind in Iowa. Now, we have made real progress here, and we are going to do well tonight. We feel like we've got momentum behind us. She's getting great crowds wherever she goes.
"But regardless of the outcome this process moves to New Hampshire. Nevada and South Carolina are shortly after that. And then there are a whole number of large states on February 5. Hillary has always planned to run a national campaign, and is prepared to win the nomination."
Even before the votes were counted, Atlantic's Marc Ambinder wasn't buying the spin:
"Some Clinton allies tried to claw back the conventional wisdom that Clinton has to win Iowa to survive; I do not believe the clawback is going to work, based on the campaign's own trajectory here, based on the fact that they're imported almost a thousand friend of Hill to the state, have spent millions, and have not disputed the notion, internally, that a third place finish in Iowa would be devastating. Perhaps not fatal, but devastating. After all -- she is the national frontrunner. Frontrunners are supposed to win everywhere.
"On ABC this weekend she said: 'When I started here, I was in single digits. I mean, nobody expected me to be doing as well as I'm doing in Iowa.' Nobody, meaning, almost everybody, unfortunately. (The campaign can't point us to a poll where she was ever in single digits.)"
I don't think journalists in general have anything against Romney--though I've criticized the constant harping on the Mormon issue--but Bill Kristol sees it differently:
"The media resents and dislikes Romney, for some good reasons and mostly bad ones. Above all, they hate someone who has moved to the right and might benefit from doing so (think of the coverage of Vice President Bush in 1987-88). Incidentally, as this example suggests, media hostility doesn't mean Romney couldn't win the nomination--or the general election.
"And the media hostility to Romney also poses a potential trap for John McCain. McCain has to make sure his criticism of Romney doesn't seem simply to echo the liberal media's, or isn't perceived by GOP primary voters as simply echoing the liberal media's. McCain shouldn't attack Romney for his new-found conservative positions, but for his old liberal ones: When McCain was supporting Reagan in the 80s, where was Romney? When McCain was fighting Hillary's health care plan in the 90s, where was Romney? And, as he's now arguing, when McCain was supporting the surge earlier this year, where was Romney?"
Kristol is an old McCain fan.
Why did Thompson never gain any traction? In the New Republic, Michael Crowley buys the reluctant-candidate theory:
"The more Thompson campaigns at low octane, the more plausible the theory that Jeri pushed him into running becomes. But why did he flop so badly once he did run? Where to start? He got in too late, didn't sound prepared, lacked the movie-star presence people expected, and suffered from staff turmoil (widely attributed to Jeri). Above all, Thompson never offered a clear rationale for his candidacy--a curious defect for a star contender, unless you consider what's become increasingly clear of late: On some level, the guy never really seemed to want it."
Breaking news: NYT reporters fly private jet out of Iowa! What about their carbon footprint??
A blogger at Townhall overheard Ed Rollins, Huckabee's newest adviser, while Rollins was sitting in a restaurant with "a female dining companion." Here's the blogger's report:
"Rollins made a phone call to Lou Dobbs and said he would ready to have drinks with him after Iowa to talk about Hillary. There also was a reference to Rollins' recent comments about wanting to knock Romney's teeth out, as Rollins told Dobbs 'they are all porcelain.'
"Rollins also called Andrea Mitchell and predicted Obama would take Iowa tonight. He called Mitchell 'sweetie' several times.
"Rollins believes Rudy Giuliani is 'done,' 'has no money,' and was 'hurt terribly by those police cruises with his girlfriends.'
"Rollins called said Fred Thompson was 'as disgrace as a candidate. Fred has been a friend a long time, but has never converted a single vote. No one is taking him seriously.' "
On Fox, Rollins didn't deny the quotes but said the blonde he was lunching with was . . . his wife.
And, just to show that tabloid life goes on, politics or not:
"Police were called to Britney Spears' home Thursday night in a custodial dispute that lasted nearly three hours before an intoxicated Spears reportedly turned over her children to ex-husband Kevin Federline . . . Aerial footage from KTLA-TV showed Spears being lifted in a gurney into an ambulance."
