US Election Coverage 2008

[Icadon]

Hillary kwa maoni yangu hahitaji kuwa negative dhidi ya Obama ili kujihakikishia ushindi.

Amtumie sana Bill na pia azungumze kwa confidence na pia awe tayari kuomba sahamahi kwa kuruhusu uvamizi wa Iraq ambao haukustahili.

Akiamua kuwa negative basi ndio asahau ndoto zake za kurudi WH.

Amtumie Bubba mara ngapi? soma post yangu ya bubba to the rescue,

Alarmed by his wife's slide in the polls and disarray within her backbiting campaign, a beside-himself Bill Clinton has leaped atop the barricades and is furiously plotting a cure - or coup.

"She's in big trouble and he knows it," a top Democratic operative and Hillary Clinton booster told the Daily News.endlea hapa

 

[Kenyan-Tanzanian]

Nawavushieni tarabushi Game na Baraka Obama. Salaam za mwaka mpya na kheri kwa zenyu...

VIVA OBAMA:

http://my.barackobama.com/page/community/post_group/ObamaHQFeature/CCqB

 

[BAK]

Bado maoni yangu ni hayo hayo. Bill alikuwa behind the scene most of the time, na kuna wakati mwingine mkewe alipokuwa anafanya kampeni alikuwa yuko Europe au mji mwingine tofauti kabisa akishughulikia mambo yasiyohusiana na kampeni ya mkewe. Bill bado anapendwa sana na Waamerika wengi, hivyo kama akifanya kampeni bega kwa bega na mkewe atamsaidia sana kufanya vizuri kule NH na kwingineko.

 

[Icadon]

Karl Peters aliimwaga Sumu yake kwa watu weusi zamani zile lakini inaelekea nguvu yake bado inafanya kazi mpaka leo hii.

Inaelekea kwamba kuna weusi au wa njano wawezao kujikomba kwa KKK na kuwashabikia kwa siasa na misimamo yao ya white supreme tu kwa sababu ni wazungu, hata kama wao wanatengwa maili millioni.

Mzungu ndo awezaye kila kitu hapa Amerika wakati viwanja vyote vya Research za Technolojia vimejaa Watu wasio wazungu.

Hii ni karne ya 21 hata hivyo hatulazimishi mtu kuishi karne hii aweza fanya time travel akaishi karne ya 19 au hata 18. Ruksa

Zamani hizo watu waligoma wakaahidi hata kujiua kwa kudai kwamba Meli ya Chuma haito weza elea. Kiko wapi?

Wengine mwishoni mwa karne ya 19 walicheka wazo la kutengeneza chombo cha kusafiria angani wakidai binadamu aliumbwa kutembea ardhini. Wako wapi? Watu tunasafiri na mapipa kama tunaria.

Makundi hayo mawili ya wapingaji yalikuwa na kitu kimoja common.
Walifikia upeo wa njozi zao.

Ebanae Kula Tano...hii inanikumbusha mambo ya effect za Willie Lynch Letter....Kama hamjasoma ile Willie Lynch Letter hii hapa

GENTLEMAN:
I greet you here on the bank of the James River in the year of our Lord, one thousand seven hundred and twelve. First I shall thank you, the Gentlemen of the Colony of Virginia, for bringing me here. I am here to help you solve some of your problems with slaves. Your invitation reached me on my modest plantation in the West Indies where I have experimented with some of the newest and still the oldest methods for control of slaves. Ancient Rome would envy us if my program is implemented. As our boat sailed south on the James River, named for our illustrious King James, whose bible we cherish, I saw enough to know that your program is not unique. While Rome used cords of wood as crosses for standing human bodies along the old highways in great numbers, you are here using the tree and the rope on occasion.

I caught the whiff of a dead slave hanging from a tree a couple of miles back. You are not only losing valuable stock by hangings, you are having uprisings, slaves are running away, your crops are sometimes left in the fields too long for maximum profit, you suffer occasional fires, your animals are killed, gentlemen...you know what your problems are; I do not need to elaborate. I am not here to enumerate your problems, I am here to introduce you to a method of solving them.

In my bag here, I have a fool-proof method for controlling your black slaves. I guarantee everyone of you that if installed correctly it will control the slaves for at least 300 years. My method is simple, any member of your family or any overseer can use it.

I have outlined a number of differences among the slaves, and I take these differences and make them bigger. I use fear, distrust, and envy for control purposes. These methods have worked on my modest plantation in the West Indies, and it will work throughout the South. Take this simple little test of differences and think about them. On the top of my list is "Age", but it is there because it only starts with an "A"; the second is "Color" or shade; there is intelligence, size, sex, size of plantations, attitude of owners, whether the slaves live in the valley, on a hill, East, West, North, South, have fine or coarse hair, or is tall or short. Now that you have a list of differences, I shall give you an outline of action--but before that, I shall assure you that distrust is stronger than trust, and envy is stronger than adulation, respect, or admiration.
The Black Slave, after receiving this indoctrination, shall carry on and will become self refueling and self generating for hundreds of years, maybe thousands.

Don't forget, you must pitch the old Black vs. the young Black male, and the young Black male against the old Black male. You must use the dark skinned slaves vs the light skinned slaves, and the light skinned slaves vs. the dark skinned slaves. You must use the female vs. the male, and the male vs. the female. You must also have your servants and overseers distrust all Blacks, but it is necessary that your slaves trust and depend on us. They must love, respect, and trust only us.

Gentlemen, these kits are your keys to control, use them. Have your wives and children use them. Never miss opportunity. My plan is guaranteed, and the good thing about this plan is that if used intensely for one year, the slaves themselves will remain perpetually distrustful.

 

[Game Theory]

Nasoma Associated Press hapa Clinton goes for young voters na AP nina quote "Just seconds into her speech Friday morning, Clinton was declaring herself the candidate for America's youth - stealing a page from the new Democratic presidential front-runner, Barack Obama." Kweli I think its getting interesting from here forward...Jana usiku na leo kwenye morning news programs kila candidate alikuwa anadeclare kwambe they are for change.

So she has about 3 days to convert the Over 65 vote from Iowa into the Under 30 vote in NH. It will surely be impressive if she/they can pull this off, if you discount her 6 point lead in the NH polls. Interesting Hillary anaanza kubehave like a member of Tanzania opposition now!

 

[Icadon]

Habari za kutisha ni kuwa CLINTON CAMP wameaapa wataanza kwenda NEGATIVE on OBAMA huko NH na sijui watu wa huko wata react vipi

You can always read hapa:

Hii ni analysis ya Robert Novak baada ya jana

Obama: Obama needed a win, and he got a big one, but this still doesn't make him the favorite.

1. Obama pieced together a strong, enthusiastic base with very healthy support from the backers of non-viable second-tier candidates.

2. The Democratic race had developed into a competition over who really represented "change." Once this was the battlefield, Obama -- new on the political scene and optimistic in tone -- had the advantage. He also avoided missteps in the final months.

3. Independents and young voters -- two often over-hyped segments of the electorate -- were responsible for Obama's large margin of victory. Party-switching Republicans (partly reflected in the more than two-to-one turnout advantage Democrats had last night) helped, too. That such a liberal lawmaker could win over Republicans and independents reflects the Iowa voters' lack of ideology and their attention to tone and personality, where Obama is by far the most adept.

4. Going forward, he is not necessarily the favorite to win the nomination, but a win in New Hampshire would crown him as the undisputed front-runner.

Edwards: Edwards exceeded expectations, but he still might not have done what he needed to in order to make the nomination a three-way race.

1. Edwards was very strong in the rural counties, and his populist, class-warfare rhetoric won over many Iowa Democrats. Like Obama, he was a popular second choice, usually among voters who had either supported him in the 2004 nomination battle or just voted for him as Vice President in November 2004.

2. A second-place finish is probably not good enough to keep Edwards truly in the race. His prospects are dim in New Hampshire and Florida, and he has not even locked up South Carolina (the only primary he won in 2004). Edwards needed to win Iowa to inject himself into the Clinton-Obama tier.

Clinton: While second place might not mean much for Edwards, third place is harmful to Clinton.

1. Clinton is a polarizing figure, which hurt her in Iowa in at least three ways. First, her hardball -- and at times dirty -- tactics didn't play well in the Heartland. Her campaign's backhanded ways of dragging Obama's past drug use into the spotlight hurt her. Secondly, she was unable to garner almost any second-choice votes. Third, many Democrats feared she would motivate Republicans and turn off independents handing Republicans the White House in 2012.

2. High turnout hurt her. She was able to get her supporters to the caucuses, but as long as there was a sizable number of caucus-goers looking for a second-choice, Hillary was in trouble.

3. She can still win New Hampshire, in which case she would be on even footing with Obama. However, any veneer of inevitability is completely gone, which hurts her.

The Field: The Democrats' viability requirements kept the second-tier Democrats from even having decent showings in Iowa.

1. Senators Joe Biden (Del.) and Chris Dodd (Conn.) couldn't reach the 15 percent threshold in many districts, and so they barely registered last night. They have both withdrawn, despite being held in high regard by many Iowa Democrats.

2. Richardson fared best of the second-tier candidates, but he is still not a serious contender. He is running for Vice President or secretary of State.

3. With Biden and Dodd out of the race, the top three have a few more undecided voters in New Hampshire to fight over -- but not that many.

Sincerely,

Robert D. Novak Timothy P. Carney
Editor Sr. Reporter

 

[Game Theory]

Skeletons zote za Hillary zimeshaanikwa hadharani hakuna jipya, lakini Republicans hawatasita kuzirudia. Skeletons za Obama nyingi zitakuwa mpya ambazo wengi hawazijui hivyo zitakuwa na negative impact kubwa kuliko za Clinton. Republicans' machine wapo kazini wakikusanya data zote za Obama kuhusiana na 'mabaya' aliyoyafanya akiwa kijana ambayo yatamrahisishia mgombea wao kutinga tena WH kwa awamu nyingine ya miaka 4.

The Iowa Independent piece mentions two relevant polls which touch on the issue, and the results are telling:

A survey of 1,010 adults conducted by Scripps Howard News Service and Ohio University finds many Americans voice concerns about candidates who've used cocaine.

Adults in the survey were equally troubled over prospects of a president who tried cocaine in his youth, something Sen. Barack Obama has admitted. Only 34 percent said they think most Americans would accept this while 58 percent said it would not be acceptable.

In a New York Times poll in June, 74 percent of respondents said they did not think most people they know would vote for a presidential candidate who has ever used cocaine.

Ahh well Correct me if I'm wrong, but everything we know about Obama's drug use as a young man comes from his own memoirs (though we also know, btw, that journalists have gone back and talked to the people he grew up with). The Clinton campaign has insinuated that there is some scandal about Obama which is waiting to get out, and if that's true we're almost certainly going to find out during the next month (I think they're bluffing, btw, or else they would have put it out through surrogates before now) ..ooops hapo hatujaanza ku connect BLACKWATER & THE CLINTONS!

 

[Jasusi]

Bubu,
Lakini hiyo survey inaficha unafiki. President Bush used alcohol and cocaine in his youth. The only difference is that he did not specifically acknowledge it like Obama did.

 

[The Truth]

Dont get me wrong I would love Obama to win not because he is african/american rather bcoz he is smartest and capable candidate.

I don't believe Obama is the smartest candidate that honor probably goes to Ron Paul as he is actually a physician. By Obama's own admission, his undergraduate academic record was not that great. I am wondering how Obama got into Harvard Law School with his mediocre grades. My guess is affirmative action helped him get into Harvard but by no means he is the smartest candidate.

 

[Game Theory]

GAME THEORY,
Ahsante sana kwa kuanzisha thread hii na kuonyesha kuwa unam-support Bwn. Obama.

Labda kwa kuanza tu kabisa niji-preempt tu kuwa, mimi siyo mtaalam wa mambo ya International Relationships au geopolitic issues kama jinsi wewe na wengine wengi mlivyo hapa JF. Na ninawashukuru kwa michango yenu mingi kwa kweli.

Basi nikisha sema hivyo, kuna maswali ambayo najikuta nikijiuliza, IMEKUWAJE all of a sudden on your part there is a 'change of heart'...Imekuwaje ndugu Game ghafla tu umeelemea upande wa Obama? MAANA KWENYE THREAD HII KUMHUSU OBAMA uliyo anzisha mwenyewe ulikuja juu kuhusu kutoridhishwa kwako na mambo yake na hilo kama ulivyo elezea lilitokana na tamko moja tu lililoenda kinyume na ujuayo wewe. Maneno yako ni kama ifuatavyo:


pia..



Katika hiyo thread, baada ya tamko lako, hukusema kingine bali ku-comment tu kuwa, chochote walichosema wana JF ni 'interesting'. Sasa ndugu, nikiwa mtu wa kupenda kueleweshwa, ili nami ni muunge Bwn. Obama katika mwangaza ambao umekufanya wewe ubadili mawazo kwa mara nyingine na kum-endorse tena, tafadhali sana, nitafurahi kama utaeleza yaliyokufanya kurudi kundini kwake.


Na nikiwa na swali la nyongeza, Ikitokea kuwa ametamka maneno mengine ambayo hayataendana vizuri na knowledge yako au yatapingana na msimamo wako (wowote ulionao sasa hivi), je, utakuwa tayari kuanzisha thread nyingine ya kumbondea? Au safari hii umeweka msingi imara na hutamgeuka Senator huyo?! Ni haya tu, Ahsante.


SteveD.

MZEE STEVE D,


MASWALI YAKO NI MAWILI NA NITAJARIBU KUYAJIBU KADRI YA UWEZO WANGU.
Kwanza umenifurahisha kwa kuonyesha kuwa wewe si miongoni mwa WAVIVU humu JF ambao hawawezi kuleta supporting evidence za kusupport arguments zao..actually na mimi nimekuwa complicit in that na kusema ukweli I am really trying to change that.


Mimi kama kawaida yangu ni political animal na kusema ukweli hii kwa kiasi kikubwa kiliathiriwa na si kupenda kwangu kwa siasa lakini all things Law, Governance and Humanities hivyo kukesha usiku kumsikiliza OBAMA on that night kwenye Democratic Convention ilikuwa ni MUST kwangu na amini usiamini, intention yangu ilikuwa niwe kwenye TEAM OBAMA mwaka huu kama political consultant lakini kama ujuavyo alot can happen in a short period of time in the end katika kundi letu ni mimi tu ndio siko huko lakini kuna jamaa 3 wako kwenye campaign team zake mmoja yuko Cali, Mwingine yuko NewhamPshire na mwingine yuko DC


Kana kama hiyo haitoshi niliendelea kusoma Biography zake mbili na suala lingine ambalo ningependa kukufahamisha ni kuwa nishafika mpaka huko kijijini kwao huko Ka Gem (Nyanza) 1980' lakini hiyo ni separate issue ambayo nikianza kukupa hadithi humu utashangaa jinsi gani dunia yangu ndogo ilivyokuwa inaevolve ndio maana hawa jamaa wa Kenya huwa nawauliza ma swali madogo madogo ya mitego na huwa hawawezi kunipa straight answers

Hayo tuachane nayo

Mimi mzee huwa siyo mfuasi kipofu. Naweza kukuambia humu ndani jamaa washatoa assumptions za kila namna na wengine wakanituhumu kuwa ni mfanyakazi wa serikali lakini hawashangai kuwa kila kukicha huwa nawakandia na kuwakosoa hao watawala?

Mawazo yangu juu ya Obama niendelea kubadilika kwa kiasi kikubwa nilipo soma AUTOBIOGRAPHY ZAKE MBILI ya kwanza ni hiki:

Ambacho OBAMA kama vile alikuwa kasoma kitabu cha PHILIPPE WAMBA (marehemu) ambaye mama yake alikuwa yuko pale UD ambaye alikuwa kaolewa na mzee WAMBA DIA WAMBA...tofauti ni kuwa Obama mama yake alikuwa ni Mzungu

lakini kitabu ambacho kilivutia zaidi kususu mtazamo wa Obama ni hiki ambacho nilikimaliza kukisoma mwezi wa NOVEMBA na kipo hapa mbele yangu na chapetrs ambazo zilinivutia zaidi ni

2

4

5
8

sasa basi kujibu swali lako ni kuwa:


1) japo nilikuwa nina mcritisize OBAMA still nilikuwa bado sija make up my mind complete ly kumhusu

2) Kuhusu approach ambayo aliisema kuwa infaa kuhusu PAKISTAN nilishaieleza kwa kirefu kwenye THREAD hii:

http://www.jamboforums.com/showthread.php?t=6924


3) Utaona sijawahi kudeclare moja kwa moja kuwa ninamsupport OBAMA na nadhani hii ndio nafasi niliyochukua kufanya hivyo


4) Pale nitakapo pingana na baadhi ya approach katika kutekeleza policies zake then i can live with that hamna tatizo hata kidogo

 

[BAK]

Bubu,
Lakini hiyo survey inaficha unafiki. President Bush used alcohol and cocaine in his youth. The only difference is that he did not specifically acknowledge it like Obama did.

Nikweli kabisa jasusi. Mimi sio kwamba sitaki Obama ashinde, ningependa sana Obama ashinde kama mgombea wa Democratics na pia kama ingewezekana awe na baraza la mawaziri la weusi watupu.... Na hii dhana ya kwamba "America is not ready for a black/woman president' mimi sikubaliani nayo. Baada ya kuwa huru kwa miaka 232 bado hawajawa tayari kwa black/woman president basi hawatakuwa tayari milele. Tusisahau pia kwamba ushindi wa Obama umetokana pia na 'Oprah effect' ambaye ni maarufu sana kwa wazungu na weusi na pia alipita na kuhutubia iowa, south carolina na new hampshire.

 

[Game Theory]

I don't believe Obama is the smartest candidate that honor probably goes to Ron Paul as he is actually a physician.

LETS SEE ABOUT THE SO CALLED SMARTEST CANDIDATE BWANA RON PAUL:

HAPA YUKO NA JAMAA ZAKE WA KKK

This photograph is showing Ron Paul at the Values Voters Presidential Debate in Fort Lauderdale on September 17, 2007. Immediately to Paul’s left: Don Black, the owner of neo-Nazi hate site Stormfront. On the far right is Derek Black, Don Black's son.

Here’s another picture from the same event, showing Ron Paul signing an autograph for Derek Black:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/low/americas/600876.stm

KANA KAMA HIYO HAITOSHI HE DECLARES THAT:

"I think we can safely assume that 95% of the black males are....criminal"

zaidi soma hapa:
http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2007/5/15/124912/740

kama hiyo HAITOSHI how about this:

Ron Paul Voted against the 1964 Civil Rights Act:

here:
http://www.youtube.com/v/d-iJP4BAAQ4&

He also voted against the 50TH ANNIVERSARY OF BROWN V. BOARD OF EDUCATION:

here:
http://votesmart.org/speech_detail.php?sc_id=110720&keyword=&phrase=&contain=

 

[The Truth]

LETS SEE ABOUT THE SO CALLED SMARTEST CANDIDATE BWANA RON PAUL:

Here’s another picture from the same event, showing Ron Paul signing an autograph for Derek Black

Signing some autograph on some political event does not prove or disprove anything. Do you think Obama knows every person he signs autograph for or takes picture with or any other candidate for that matter?

I think we can safely assume that 95% of the black males are....criminal

You are quoting a source that quotes a holocaust denier? How reliable is that source really? If Ron Paul had actually said written or said these things the politically correct media would have had a field day by now.

Ron Paul Voted against the 1964 Civil Rights Act:

He wasn't a congress member in 1964. He voted against its renewal in 2004 for reasons he clearly elaborated. The 1964 Civil Rights Act has failed to accomplish many of the things it set out to do and we can argue its effectiveness (or ineffectiveness).

He also voted against the 50TH ANNIVERSARY OF BROWN V. BOARD OF EDUCATION

Just like the 1964 Civil Rights Act, Brown vs. Board of Education has failed.

 

[Game Theory]

Signing some autograph on some political event does not prove or disprove anything. Do you think Obama knows every person he signs autograph for or takes picture with or any other candidate for that matter?




You are quoting a source that quotes a holocaust denier? How reliable is that source really? If Ron Paul had actually said written or said these things the politically correct media would have had a field day by now.



He wasn't a congress member in 1964. He voted against its renewal in 2004 for reasons he clearly elaborated. The 1964 Civil Rights Act has failed to accomplish many of the things it set out to do and we can argue its effectiveness (or ineffectiveness).



Just like the 1964 Civil Rights Act, Brown vs. Board of Education has failed.

TRUTH muda unao? Maana points zako hapo juu naweza kuzicrash moja baada ya nyingine lakini nataka uendelee kuwepo humu usiondoke

So let me know ili nijue kama uko serious na huu mjadala

 

[William J. Malecela]

Uwezekano wa Obama, kuwa rais wa US huo bado haupo, US ina majimbo 51 so far ni uchaguzi wa jimbo moja tu ambalo hata Bill Clinton mwenyewe hakuweza kushinda, in fact ushindi wa Clinton ulianzia jimbo la Georgia, Iowans ni Conservatives na 93% ni wazungu, weusi ni only 3%, sheria za kura ni kwamba unajiandikisha tu na ukiingia kwenye chumba cha kupiga kura sio lazima ukipigie chama fulani, meaning kwamba unaweza kujiandikisha kama Republican na uakingia kumpigia kura mgombea wa Democrat, that is exactly what happened,

Conservatives Republicans wameenda kumpigia kura Obama, kwa sababu hawamtaki Mama Clinton, thinking kwamba hiyo momentum inaweza ku-catch a fire kwa US nzima, kwa sababu kwa kura alizoshinda Obama, in maana kwamba kama Iowa ingekuwa ni nchi, bsi ukifanyika uchaguzi wa rais leo Obama atakuwa rais wa Iowa, politically, does this make a sense? No way!

Obama, ni a good candidate, tena very clean the black nation huko US limekuwa likihangaika sana kutafuta a hero here they have one, smart, articulative na charismatic, isipokuwa tatizo ni kwamba he is not Black enough kwa weusi wa huko US, so far bado Mama Clinton anaongoza kwenye polls among weusi, na nafahamu for a fact kuwa weusi huko huwa hawatutaki Afrikans,

Binafsi I like Obama, kwa sababu zile zile za kumkosesha tembo usingizi, huwezi kujua time zimefika bila ya kujaribu and that is what Obama is doing now, cha muhimu ni kumpa support as much as we can, kwa sababu the more Obam tries, ni the more anavyo-elevate race yetu weusi na kutupatia heshima zaidi, na kutuweka kwenye ramani ya dunia, it worthy kum-support Obama, kuliko the rest of the candidates!

I hope he wins it all!

 

[Icadon]

By Howard Kurtz
Washington Post Staff Writer
Friday, January 4, 2008; 8:26 AM

It's a very big win for Barack Obama, in part because he knocked off the former first lady and in part because the media have been hankering to write the upset story.

But remember all the pundits taking Hillary Clinton's inevitability for granted most of the year, and despairing during the summer and fall that Obama could never catch up because he wasn't pummeling her? He never hammered Hillary all that hard, and he still caught up.

Hillary still has a national lead, but can that survive the media tsunami about her third-place finish?

For close to 11 months, the media essentially ignored Mike Huckabee, who just breezed to a surprisingly easy win in the Iowa caucuses despite being outspent by 20 to 1. Heck of a job, gang.

Huckabee was so strong that Mitt Romney conceded on Fox News at 8:57 last night, with only 15 percent of caucuses reporting. Romney congratulated Huckabee and used his line about having started in the single digits--but that was before he spent many months and many millions in an effort to sew up Iowa.

Three minutes later, MSNBC and then CNN projected Huck the winner, and he got a siren on Drudge.

It's a remarkable tale. The commentators still think Huckabee may go nowhere after this, but don't we in the news business look short-sighted for treating him as an asterisk for so long? He was good for comic relief--the wisecracking, bass-playing, weight-losing preacher man--but he couldn't win, could he?

The media ridicule--about the negative ad he pulled but still played, about his decision to ditch Des Moines for Leno--didn't matter much in the end.

We in the news business made the same mistake we've made so many times before, overvaluing money and organization. Phil Gramm was going to be huge in 1996 because of his war chest. Howard Dean was virtually guaranteed to win because he had raised the then-unimaginable sum of $40 million. But in the end, message and personality can trump fat checkbooks and precinct workers.

We cling to those benchmarks because they feel real. We overvalue early polls, which can change in a heartbeat, as Huckabee just demonstrated.

The three cable networks called the Democratic race for Obama at 9:28. Suddenly there was talk about race, which in my view most of the media had studiously avoided for months.

"For a black man to win the Iowa caucus is astounding," Juan Williams said. Donna Brazile called it "a victory for national reconciliation." White commentators reminded viewers that Iowa is an overwhelmingly white state.

Suddenly the pundits were full of advice for Hillary: She needs to emphasize trust. She needs to put her husband aside. She can't compete against Obama's inspirational message. She has to be more emotional. ("She needs a personality transplant," Fred Barnes sniffed.)

Laura Ingraham said she met Republicans who had voted for Obama, and that this was trouble for the GOP.

At 10:20, John Edwards gave a rousing fight speech against corporate greed and, following Elizabeth's lead, claimed second place (though that was unclear at that point), never quite managing to congratulate Obama.

Seconds later it was Hillary's turn. With 1992's self-proclaimed comeback kid at her side, she managed to look exhilarated. She spoke about change. She congratulated Obama and the other Democrats. She repeated her slogan about "the best president on day one." Then it was laundry list time: Quality affordable health care, energy policy, global warming, the unfunded mandate known as No Child Left Behind. It Takes a Village.

This is the first race she's ever lost. Now we'll see what she's made of.

Huckabee, flanked by Chuck Norris, was next. He didn't do shtick. He graciously thanked his wife Janet. He chided "the pundits" for insisting that for anyone outspent by at least 15 to 1, it was "simply impossible to overcome that mountain of money." He talked about change and inclusiveness and the founders and his parents' sacrifice and loving America. For many viewers, it was probably their first look at Huck.

It was part Jimmy Stewart, Chris Matthews said.

No one saw Romney's speech, about winning the silver instead of the gold, because he spoke when Huckabee was speaking. These things don't happen by accident.

Obama emerged with his family just after 11. "They said this day would never come," he began. He didn't mention race. He didn't have to.

He hit the unity theme hard, red states and blue states, hope over fear. Taking back the government. It was a serious speech, not a self-congratulatory one, an oration punctuated by a smile only when he thanked "the love of my life," Michelle. His only reference to civil rights was to Selma and Montgomery in a litany of great American events, leading into his reference to "a father from Kenya and a mother from Kansas."

"That was a goose-bump moment for me," Gene Robinson said of the speech on MSNBC.

Hillary could not have reached those rhetorical heights, even if she had won. That's just a fact. She's just built differently as a candidate.

Biden and Dodd are gone. Today is the media's What It All Means day. That leaves a three-day campaign in New Hampshire.

New York Times: "The Democratic and Republican establishments and their presidential candidates, Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton and former Gov. Mitt Romney, were brought low in Iowa on Thursday night, shaken seriously by two national newcomers who won decisively on messages of insurgency and change.

"The victors of Iowa, Senator Barack Obama for the Democrats and former Gov. Mike Huckabee for the Republicans, were as far from the status quo as possible: The son of a Kenyan father and a white Kansan who entered the United States Senate just two years ago, and a former Baptist minister who was best known until recently for losing over 100 pounds and taking on the issue of childhood obesity.

"The two winners burst the aura of strength and confidence that Mrs. Clinton and Mr. Romney had cultivated for months." And which the media were all too happy to convey.

Chicago Tribune: "In the end, Iowans voted for a smile.

"They chose conciliation over combat, personality over pedigree, hope over fear. They voted for the new, with fervor. Whether that sets a tone for the campaign to come is far from certain--in fact things could get harsh in a hurry. But at least on this cold night, there was a powerful suggestion that voters were intrigued by a different kind of politics, particularly independents who increasingly say they are weary of the old partisan fights."

Boston Globe: "The triumphs of Obama, a freshman senator who four years ago was serving in the Illinois legislature, and Huckabee, the little-known former governor of Arkansas, were dazzling and even historic in their own ways: Each struck a rich vein of anti-Washington feeling in Iowa and withstood strong challenges from far more famous opponents."

Washington Times: "Mike Huckabee scored a stunning victory in Iowa's Republican presidential caucuses last night, topping Mitt Romney in a result that would have been unimaginable just two months ago."

Now, who exactly failed to imagine it?

Slate's John Dickerson: "The big question of Barack Obama's campaign has always been whether his high-flying rhetoric could ever produce real results. Sure, he could create crowds visible from space, but during the summer--when his polls flattened and his backers got nervous--political elites wondered whether he had peaked. He was the girl you dated, not the girl you married, plenty of political analysts told me.

"Not any more."

You know how infallible those analysts are.

Salon's Walter Shapiro: "Despite her third-place finish in Iowa (a hairsbreadth behind John Edwards), Clinton remains a formidable foe with the money, institutional backing and comeback-kid tenacity to battle Obama through the Feb. 5 primaries and beyond. Political handicapping always carries the danger of overreacting to the last burst of news -- and 'Hillary in a Hil' of a Fix' is certain to become the next campaign narrative."

Politico on the GOP's "demolition derby": "There is Huckabee, who must now try to turn what has been mostly a personality-based campaign into an effective national organization with appeal beyond the religious conservatives who formed the basis of his victory here. There is Romney, who now must find a new rationale for a candidacy that was based almost entirely on the prospect of scoring early victories in Iowa and New Hampshire and turning that into a national movement. There is McCain, who has been surging in recent polls in New Hampshire -- a state that is only looking more favorable for him after Romney's Hawkeye State humiliation."

Insta-punditry:

Arianna, who can't stand Hillary: "Even if your candidate didn't win tonight, you have reason to celebrate. We all do.

"Barack Obama's stirring victory in Iowa -- down home, folksy, farm-fed, Midwestern, and 92 percent white Iowa -- says a lot about America, and also about the current mindset of the American voter . . .

" . . . the Clintons -- their Hillary-as-incumbent-strategy sputtering -- followed the Bush blueprint in Iowa and played the fear card again and again and again.

"Be afraid of Obama, they warned us. Be afraid of something new, something different."

National Review's Ramesh Ponnuru: "I don't see how Romney can recover from this loss. McCain was already running ahead in New Hampshire. If Romney loses both, he's gone."

Rich Lowry, who endorsed Romney: "Huckabee made the right choice to be bold and stay in the news at the end as opposed to Mitt's safer approach."

Andrew Sullivan on Hillary: "She doesn't have the experience to win a campaign and she doesn't have the change message to prevail. If you think back two months, would you have believed this result?

"This black man won an overwhelmingly white vote in Iowa. Whatever else heappens, he has made history tonight."

Mark Halperin got hold of the caucus-day talking points for Hillary and Obama, and here's how HRC planned to spin a loss:

" Q: What happens if Hillary doesn't do well tonight?

" A: Well although Hillary started out, and remains ahead, nationally, Hillary started out behind in Iowa. Now, we have made real progress here, and we are going to do well tonight. We feel like we've got momentum behind us. She's getting great crowds wherever she goes.

"But regardless of the outcome this process moves to New Hampshire. Nevada and South Carolina are shortly after that. And then there are a whole number of large states on February 5. Hillary has always planned to run a national campaign, and is prepared to win the nomination."

Even before the votes were counted, Atlantic's Marc Ambinder wasn't buying the spin:

"Some Clinton allies tried to claw back the conventional wisdom that Clinton has to win Iowa to survive; I do not believe the clawback is going to work, based on the campaign's own trajectory here, based on the fact that they're imported almost a thousand friend of Hill to the state, have spent millions, and have not disputed the notion, internally, that a third place finish in Iowa would be devastating. Perhaps not fatal, but devastating. After all -- she is the national frontrunner. Frontrunners are supposed to win everywhere.

"On ABC this weekend she said: 'When I started here, I was in single digits. I mean, nobody expected me to be doing as well as I'm doing in Iowa.' Nobody, meaning, almost everybody, unfortunately. (The campaign can't point us to a poll where she was ever in single digits.)"

I don't think journalists in general have anything against Romney--though I've criticized the constant harping on the Mormon issue--but Bill Kristol sees it differently:

"The media resents and dislikes Romney, for some good reasons and mostly bad ones. Above all, they hate someone who has moved to the right and might benefit from doing so (think of the coverage of Vice President Bush in 1987-88). Incidentally, as this example suggests, media hostility doesn't mean Romney couldn't win the nomination--or the general election.

"And the media hostility to Romney also poses a potential trap for John McCain. McCain has to make sure his criticism of Romney doesn't seem simply to echo the liberal media's, or isn't perceived by GOP primary voters as simply echoing the liberal media's. McCain shouldn't attack Romney for his new-found conservative positions, but for his old liberal ones: When McCain was supporting Reagan in the 80s, where was Romney? When McCain was fighting Hillary's health care plan in the 90s, where was Romney? And, as he's now arguing, when McCain was supporting the surge earlier this year, where was Romney?"

Kristol is an old McCain fan.

Why did Thompson never gain any traction? In the New Republic, Michael Crowley buys the reluctant-candidate theory:

"The more Thompson campaigns at low octane, the more plausible the theory that Jeri pushed him into running becomes. But why did he flop so badly once he did run? Where to start? He got in too late, didn't sound prepared, lacked the movie-star presence people expected, and suffered from staff turmoil (widely attributed to Jeri). Above all, Thompson never offered a clear rationale for his candidacy--a curious defect for a star contender, unless you consider what's become increasingly clear of late: On some level, the guy never really seemed to want it."

Breaking news: NYT reporters fly private jet out of Iowa! What about their carbon footprint??

A blogger at Townhall overheard Ed Rollins, Huckabee's newest adviser, while Rollins was sitting in a restaurant with "a female dining companion." Here's the blogger's report:

"Rollins made a phone call to Lou Dobbs and said he would ready to have drinks with him after Iowa to talk about Hillary. There also was a reference to Rollins' recent comments about wanting to knock Romney's teeth out, as Rollins told Dobbs 'they are all porcelain.'

"Rollins also called Andrea Mitchell and predicted Obama would take Iowa tonight. He called Mitchell 'sweetie' several times.

"Rollins believes Rudy Giuliani is 'done,' 'has no money,' and was 'hurt terribly by those police cruises with his girlfriends.'

"Rollins called said Fred Thompson was 'as disgrace as a candidate. Fred has been a friend a long time, but has never converted a single vote. No one is taking him seriously.' "

On Fox, Rollins didn't deny the quotes but said the blonde he was lunching with was . . . his wife.

And, just to show that tabloid life goes on, politics or not:

"Police were called to Britney Spears' home Thursday night in a custodial dispute that lasted nearly three hours before an intoxicated Spears reportedly turned over her children to ex-husband Kevin Federline . . . Aerial footage from KTLA-TV showed Spears being lifted in a gurney into an ambulance."

 

[Gamba la Nyoka]

What is the role of Oprah effect on obama's Campaigns?

 

[Steve Dii]

Game, Thanks a lot for clearing out the ambiguity!

SteveD.

 

[Masanja]

Very interesting thread. Iam sure like many others we are discussing this topic out of the sheer fact that US policies whether domestic or foreign affects us greatly. Whether it is a war on terror, war against Islamic fundamentalists, hunger, aid among others. I have learnt that, we also especially Africans we ought to work and sacrifice to make our continent a better place by using our knowledge and exposuure acquired from western democracies. But do we do that? Sijui.. Otherwise we shall continue being "modern slaves" of criticizing the happenings in our backyard while doing nothing for our countries, while getting overly excited for happenings in the western democracies.

Back To Obama, I heartly CONGRATULATE the man, against all odds, he is establishing himself as a serious political player in such a great democracy like America. Now as a Tanzanian why do I want a Democrat to win a white house this year?

1. It will (hopefully) greatly reduce human suffering because they tend to adopt multilateral policies. Especially in war ravaged countries and it may bring hope to other countries that all is not lost. Though Rwanda happened under their watch.

2. Honestly I tend to believe that Democrats tend to favour concensus among nations and perhaps we can see oonce again countries working together to combat global calamities such as HIV AIDS, CLIMATE CHANGE, POVERTY, HUNGER ETC...Which is agood news for we omba omba nations. and atleast we can take pose and reflect eight years of GWB and its consequences so far....

3. Republicans and democrats are all alike when it comes to their interests so I dont expect much changes in ME, Pakistan, Afghanistan and Africa...

But from what I see, perhaps I might be so pessimistic, but I tend to confront this demon in me that we are likely to have a REPABLICAN PRESIDENT IN THE WHITE HOUSE COME JANUARY 2009! Why do I see this? between Obama and Clinton I really dont see any candidate among them who can transcend the current US polorazation created by war on terror.

The war on terror has become a nightmare in US and Republicans know how to use this card to their advantage. with the looming war in Afghanistan, Pakistan, ME Iran, I dont believe that the current field of democrats can bit a republican. If you guys in ughaibuni can elect Obama or Hillary, thats a good news for the world. But I still have a strong, strong reservation if at all any of the two can bit a republican!

Perhaps, the history will prove me wrong (and I will gladly be happy for this case) but thats what I see. Panapo uzima (SteveD naomba uilete tena hii thread unikumbushe!!!)

Iam not a political scientist but it doesnt require one to understand that the current political climate does not favour a two year senator to be a president or a former first lady using the credentials of her popular spouse to be one.

Republicans might have a soft landing in November. I cant tell, but thats what I see from my little knowldge of US I have.

 

[Nyani Ngabu]

So she has about 3 days to convert the Over 65 vote from Iowa into the Under 30 vote in NH. It will surely be impressive if she/they can pull this off, if you discount her 6 point lead in the NH polls. Interesting Hillary anaanza kubehave like a member of Tanzania opposition now!

Mind you Game, New Hampshire is a totally different ball game. The whole process is different. In New Hampshire they will have a primary whereas in Iowa they had a caucus. There is a difference there!