Opiyo Oloya
ON March 1, long before there was any discussion of the UN imposed no-fly zone or Western Coalition attacks on Libya, I wrote the following: In the end, the protesters will not be able to take on Muammar Gaddafi by simply walking into hails of bullets which will surely come.
What will push Gaddafi is the UN authorisation of the use of force to soften up the dictators air defense and ground troops. With a no-fly zone established over Libya, Gaddafi will be denied any superiority he enjoys in the air.
Gaddafi, as I wrote in that article, will go down fighting and kicking which is exactly what is happening now.
However, there is a saying that the falling person will clutch at the stalk of grass to steady self. As a falling man, Gaddafi will eagerly grab at any opportunity to save his life and that of his family. He is especially aware that in the hands of the rebel forces, his demise is guaranteed.
Gaddafi, has lived long enough to have witnessed other dictators suffer ignoble defeat and gruesome deaths.
There was the brutal execution by firing squad of Romanian former president, the late Nicolae Ceausescu and his wife Elena on Christmas Day in 1989. Ironically, on the very day that Ceausescu lost his life, rebels opposed to former Liberian president the late Samuel Doe formed an alliance that eventually toppled the former army officer.
The rebels ended Does horrific ten year reign when they captured him on September 9, 1990 and slaughtered him like a chicken on camera, displaying his stark naked body for all to see. More recently former Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein was hunted down like a squirrel, tried and hanged on December 30 2006.
But, with some quick thinking and planning, the African Union (AU) can save the day.
The effort spearheaded by Ugandas President Yoweri Museveni alongside the leaders of South Africa, Mauritania, Congo and Mali must come up with a win-win proposition to the UN Security Council that allows Gaddafi to save face and his skin while simultaneously satisfying the UN-backed Western Coalition and the Libyan rebel movement working to topple him.
The petition must start with the premise that Gaddafis rule is over and his exit is necessary for a satisfactory resolution to the Libyan crisis. The question then is what to do with the colonel, followed by the way forward.
Foremost, in considering what to do with Gaddafi, the AU team must point out that three and half weeks ago the US had urged Gaddafi to leave and settle wherever he pleased.
This, unfortunately, is not possible now given that the allies have imposed a no-fly zone over Libya and, moreover, have accused the Libyan leader of perpetrating crimes against the people of Libya, and will do everything to apprehend him. There have been talks about sending the Libyan leader to the International Criminal Court (ICC) in the Hague.
However, insisting that peace comes at a cost, the AU team must press the Security Council to formally adopt an exit strategy for Gaddafi that allows the dictator and his family to leave Libya to settle in a country of their choice.
There must be express guarantees given that Gaddafi will not be apprehended, and sent to the Hague to face prosecution for crimes against the people of Libya.
Presumably, with some coaxing, the Libyan leader could choose to settle in Venezuela, Uganda or any other country where he has friends. It may not be advisable for the leader to go to another Middle Eastern country given the ongoing volatility in the region, which might see him jumping from the frying pan into the fire.
Secondly, the AU team must also insist that with Colonel Gaddafi out the way, the Western coalition must immediately suspend further military action over Libya.
This will allow the opposition rebel group to meet face to face with the remnants of Gaddafis government to plot a path toward a new Libya.
In this case, the Western Coalition will need to lean hard on the rebels to get them to sit down with their opponents.
The meeting must set up a transitional government that will begin planning the opening of political space in Libya.
The compelling argument to be placed before the Security Council is the specter of Libya as a failed state with warlords carving areas for themselves.
The unbridled enthusiasm of the rebels must be reined in now before they gain power, and begin shooting at everything that moves including their benefactors from the West. Such is the case in Somalia now.
Of course, this assumes that Muammar Gaddafi is willing to concede to the rebels and become an exiled former strongman.
The stubborn son of the desert who said last week that he will go crazy against the world is unpredictable, but with bombs exploding all around, he might be persuaded to swallow his pride.
He has a family to think about for goodness sake.
Finally, the African Union team must insist that future consideration for military action against a rogue African leader be delegated first to the AU to deal with before Western powers take matters into their hands.
However, to be taken seriously, the AU team must come to the Security Council with a demonstrable plan for dealing with leaders such as the defeated former president of Ivory Coast Laurent Gbagbo who refuses to leave power, and is now using armed gangs to terrorise his people.
It is the only way it can show maturity, creativity and above all, a willingness to sort out problems in the neighbourhood.
Opiyo.oloya@sympatico.ca