IMF wathibitisha, Serikali imeishiwa!

IMF wathibitisha, Serikali imeishiwa!

Nchi yetu ina resources ambazo zikisimamiwa vizuri wala hatuna haja ya kukopa.

Gaddafi mwenyewe alitushinda.

Ni mataifa mangapi uchumi wao umekuwa isolated kwa vikwazo nk lakini bado wanaperform better than us?
 
[...] Mkuu we're giving too much tax exemptions. Sikubaliani na wewe kuwa serikali ya Kikwete imekuwa inakusanya kodi zaidi ya ile ya Mkapa unless uje na figure.

Mkuu kama serikali inashindwa hata kufikia target ya makusanyo kodi iliyoset yenyewe, then hapo kuna tatizo. Kabla ya haya mambo ya tax exemptions kuanzishwa mwaka 1997, TRA ilikuwa ina-exceed its annual revenue collection targets. Kwa mfano, target revenue collection kwa mwaka wa fedha 2005/06 ilikuwa ni Sh 1.997 trillion in 2005/06 na walifanikiwa kukusanya Sh 2.040 trillion, which was 102% performance. Mwaka 2006/07 target ilikuwa Sh2.284 trillion na wakafanikiwa kukusanya Sh 2.512 trillion, which was 110 per cent of performance. Mwaka 2007/2008, target ilikuwa Sh 3.333 trillion na wakakusanya Sh 3.378 trillion.
Mkuu EMT, nina swali, samahani: where are the exemptions coming from? Ni national policy ya kuwafurahisha investors au ni condition ya donors? Swali la pili: why do they fail to raise what they targeted? again wanataka kuwafurahisha the tax payers au ni insolvency ya walipa kodi?
 
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Mkuu EMT, nina swali, samahani: where are the exemptions coming from? Ni national policy ya kuwafurahisha investors au ni condition ya donors? Swali la pili: why do they fail to raise what they targeted? again wanataka kuwafurahisha the tax payers au ni insolvency ya walipa kodi?
Ni assumption tu kwamba itasaidia kuwavutia wawekezajina kustimulate uchumi.Basi.

Kwenye swali la pili namwachia EMT mwenyewe akujibu.

Ila binafsi naamini kwenye ukusanyaji ni poor policies tu na mianya ya rushwa ni mojawapo ya sababu zinazoweza kufanya wasifikie target.

Hata hivo hiyo habari uliyo iquote sijui kama ina maanisha nini kwasababu inaonekana kama habari inakubaliana kuwa serikali ilifikia malengo yake na hapohapo inaonekana kupinga.

Mkuu kama serikali inashindwa hata kufikia target ya makusanyo kodi iliyoset yenyewe, then hapo kuna tatizo. Kabla ya haya mambo ya tax exemptions kuanzishwa mwaka 1997, TRA ilikuwa ina-exceed its annual revenue collection targets. Kwa mfano, target revenue collection kwa mwaka wa fedha 2005/06 ilikuwa ni Sh 1.997 trillion in 2005/06 na walifanikiwa kukusanya Sh 2.040 trillion, which was 102% performance. Mwaka 2006/07 target ilikuwa Sh2.284 trillion na wakafanikiwa kukusanya Sh 2.512 trillion, which was 110 per cent of performance. Mwaka 2007/2008, target ilikuwa Sh 3.333 trillion na wakakusanya Sh 3.378 trillion
.
 
Ndugu Mdondoaji,
Maendeleo huletwa kwa asilimia kubwa na fedha za kigeni. Uwezo wetu wa kuzalisha fedha za kigeni ni mdogo sana. Na matumizi yetu ya fedha za kigeni ni makubwa. Austerity measures huwa hazi stimulate economy kama productivity itakuwa stagnant. Sana sana inarudisha nyuma uchumi na ku-create a black market. We saw this during Nyerere's time..... but thats the past.
Kuhusu mishahara, ni lazima uwalipe wafanyakazi,mapolisi,walimu, wanajeshi n.k na mpaka sasa hivi Tanzania ina kiwango kidogo sana cha Mshahara wa wafanyakazi wa serikali. Wanasiasa wanalipwa hela nyingi sana, but in a year it's like half a trillion shillings which is a lot but if not paid , a lot of people won't be able to survive, utakuza rushwa na ku undermine purchasing power ya watu. Ingekuwa vizuri hiyo half a trillion iwe distributed well kwa wafanyakazi wa vima vya chini instead of paying almost 60% kwa viongozi. But as far as eliminating Posho as a whole, that is not a sollution.
Huwezi kupunguza posho by two thirds i.e 40% of 60%, hiyo hata kulipa mishahara utashindwa.
Kuhusu wataalam kama kina Lipumba....weell, I don't think so, those people have been in the system and proved failure, SAP haitusaidii pia. So in short we are really messed up.
But we can start with oil. Reduce oil consumption by both reducing oil imports and increasing productivity, coz what we really need is forex, haya madafu kwa kweli huwa hayna maana. Ni local currency, and local in Tanzania, means nothing but maize,rice and mangoes.
 
Mdondoaji,
I have just looked at your old posts kuhusu ugiriki....it must have been a very interesting debate; I don't know how I missed that; cha kusikitisha zaidi - sio kwamba wahusika hawakuyaona haya; this was like 6 months ago;
Based on your thread, kama hizo sababu ndio kansa kwenye uchumi wa Ugiriki, basi na Tanzania we have just been diagnosed with kansa, the issue ni kwamba tutaiwahi au lah; kwani vitu vikubwa humo ni matumizi makubwa na mabaya ya serikali; Usimamizi mbovu wa kodi and tax evasion; kwetu tumeona jinsi gani up to 25% of the budget ni matumizi ya ovyo (this is very discouraging); pia tumeona katika mijadala yetu mingine ingawa tunajisifia kukusanya kodi kwa wingi tofauti na miaka ya nyuma, bado haisaidii kupunguza our budget deficit; isitoshe, tumejionea wenyewe kwamba kwa mwaka tunapoteza over 30% of the our revenues to tax evasion;
Kuhusu CAG on Debt ni sahihi kabisa kwamba ni mzigo mkubwa sana kwa mlipa kodi; hii ni kwa sababu tutake tusitake ni lazima serikali to attend external debt before domestic debt kwa njia ya exports zetu ambazo ndio dollar hizo hizo we need for mafuta etc, dollar ambazo tunawakamua maskini wa vijijini kwani the biggest foreign exchange earner bado ni kilimo. Hii ndio maana deni la serikali la ndani linazidi kupata riba na kurundikana huku la nje nalo liki get out of hand; na kibaya zaidi ni kwamba hata ndani serikali inazidi kukopa – inazidi kuongeza deficit ambayo ni mafuta katika petrol ya inflation; pia kukopa ndani ina ‘crowd out' effect kwa SMEs kupata mikopo, sasa ukichanganya na hatua ya BOT juzi to reduce money supply by increasing bank rate and cash reserve requirements ndio kunapelekea huu uchumi wa Ndullu kuwa uchwara;
Katika hali kama hii, no wonder WorldBank came with a study kwamba about 71% of firms in Tanzania do not report all their sales for tax purposes; why should they wakati kwa upande mmoja wanapigwa na dhoruba la power cuts, kwingine wanapigwa na unanticipated inflation, kwingine wanapigwa na crowding effect kwenye domestic credit access kutokana na serikali kuzidisha its budget deficit?
Na kwa wananchi, VAT in Tanzania is 20%, the highest in East Africa kwani Kenya ni 16% na Uganda ni 18%; Ghana wenzetu as I said earlier wameamua kuwapunguzia mzigo wananchi on indirect tax ya VAT na kuamua ku focus on direct taxes kwenye sector ya madini na kwingineko; VAT (kodi kwenye mikate, maji ya uhai n.k) na Excise Duties (petrol, sigara, soda na Bia) kwa kweli sio suluhisho kwa nchi yenye watu million 45 ambapo over 30 million of these ni maskini wa kutupa; wengi wao wapo kwenye kilimo ambacho serikali inajaribu sana kupata mwanya wa kwenda kuwalima kodi huko as a means of expanding the tax base lakini inashindwa because a significant portion of sekta ya kilimo is not monetized ingawa ndio largest contributor wa pato letu la taifa (GDP); sekta nyingine muhimu ni ya madini but we all know kinachoendelea huko na kodi madini – kuna so many loopholes wanazotumia kukwepa kodi kupitia input zao kama mafuta n.k, let alone the meager 3% royalty charged by the government; sekta ya tatu kwa ukubwa ni utalii but huko napo based on the nature of cash transactions inawia vigumu kwa serikali kukusanya mapato kwa ufanisi kwani cash transactions always encourage tax evasion;

Sasa Serikali inabakia na nini?
Moja, kuna corporate tax at 30% - ila tunaona jinsi gani makampuni mengi ya nje yanadanganya kodi kwa kutoa taarifa za uongo, au kwa ku enjoy 5 years tax holidays (mfano Kempinski sasahivi ni Grand Hyatt na serikali imewapa pale ilipokuwa mahakama kuu ili waegeshe magari yao – angalau enzi zile magari yanayopaki pale kufuatilia kesi yalikuwa yanalipia sh 300 kwa siku to national parking system yam zee kingunge, but with the private parking lot ya Kempinski I mean Grand Hyatt, hata hizi hela tutazikosa kwani Grand Hyatt watatengeza hela zao, kodi hawalipi, na in 2016 watamleta Marriot or whoever they know); utapeli mwingine wa makampuni ya nje ni kupitia ‘tranfer pricing' ambapo wanacheza na subsidiaries zao; Nje ya corporate tax kinachobakia ni VAT & excise duties kama tulivyokwisha ona;

Kwahiyo we are more likely to collapse kimapato kutokana na sababu za sekta ya kilimo (see above); sekta ya madini (see above); VAT ambayo hata wenzetu Ghana wameona ni mzigo wa wananchi; na Excise duty ambayo ni kodi measured by the amount of business done – na hutozwa kwenye sigara, bidhaa za mafuta, soda na bia;

Ebu tuitazame Excise Duty Kidogo:
By convention, excise hutoswa kulingana na volume yako ya business (production for instance); hii ina maana kwamba Cha kusikitisha ni kwamba kam Excise duty zinategemea volume of business, ina maana kwamba mgao wa umeme unapunguza uzalishaji wa sigara, bia, soda, hivyo kupelekea serikali kukusanya less taxes; as a matter of fact according to confederation of industries in Tanzania, uzalishaji Tanzania ulipungua by 50% kutokana na mgao wa umeme meaning, leaving other things constant, mgao umeme serikali mapato ya excise by 50% at least; Si ajabu ndio maana mapato ya serikali mwaka huu wa fedha yameshuka sana (see below):
Financial Period
Domestic Revenue (Tsh)
Foreign Aid (Tsh)
Overall Budget (Tsh)
AID (Ushoga) as % of total budget
Domestic Revenue as % of total budget
2007 – 2008
3.5 trillion
2.5 trillion
6.1 trillion
41 %
57 %
2008 – 2009
4.8 trillion
2.4 trillion
7.2 trillion
33 %
66 %
2009 – 2010
6.3 trillion
3.1 trillion
9.5 trillion
33 %
66 %
2010 – 2011
8.3 trillion
3.2 trillion
11.6trillion
28 %
72 %
2011 - 2012
6.7 trillion
3.9 trillion
13.5 trillion
28 %
49 %

Mkullo during the 2011 – 2012 budget alitamka kwamba lengo ni ifikapo 2015 dependency ya AID or Ushoga on our budget iwe in single digits i.e under 10%; malengo mazuri ila iwapo itatekelezeka; lakini based on challenges za ukusanyaji kodi tulizokwisha ziona hapo juu, hii itakuwa kazi sana kufanikisha; Ili kuthibitisha kauli yangu kwanini I dare to challenge Mkullo's target – ebu tuangalie namba muhimu sana hapa chini:
Kwanza tujiulize – budget dependency on aid kawaida inashushwa na vitu gani? Tusisahau kwamba deni letu la nje limetulemea na la ndani linaelekea kuifilisi kabisa serikali kama bado haijafilisika; na tusisahau kwamba priority ya malipo ya madeni always huwa ni madeni ya nje kwanza then ya ndani.

Sasa turudi kuangalia uchumi Uchwara wa Mkullo na Ndullu wenye maneno mazuri kwamba by 2015, lengo ni Tanzania kushusha budget dependency on AID from current level of 28% to under 10% by the year 2015;

Swali:

Inakuwaje hapo kwenye jedwali tunaona marue rue – contribution of AID towards the budget for the financial year 2010 – 2011 was at 28% and contribution of domestic revenue on that budget was 72%; then look closely, in the following financial year i.e. 2011 – 2012 contribution ya AID on the budget was still at 28% but the contribution of domestic revenue fell very sharply from 72% to 49%? Hapa ndipo kuna tatizo lote la Uchumi Uchwara wa Mkullo na Ndullu na ndio kiini cha kansa itayotupelekea kuwa mufilisi huku tukiwa TUMETHUBUTU, TUMEWEZA NA TUNASONGA MBELE.
 
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Ndugu Mdondoaji,
Maendeleo huletwa kwa asilimia kubwa na fedha za kigeni. Uwezo wetu wa kuzalisha fedha za kigeni ni mdogo sana. Na matumizi yetu ya fedha za kigeni ni makubwa. Austerity measures huwa hazi stimulate economy kama productivity itakuwa stagnant. Sana sana inarudisha nyuma uchumi na ku-create a black market. We saw this during Nyerere's time..... but thats the past.
Kuhusu mishahara, ni lazima uwalipe wafanyakazi,mapolisi,walimu, wanajeshi n.k na mpaka sasa hivi Tanzania ina kiwango kidogo sana cha Mshahara wa wafanyakazi wa serikali. Wanasiasa wanalipwa hela nyingi sana, but in a year it's like half a trillion shillings which is a lot but if not paid , a lot of people won't be able to survive, utakuza rushwa na ku undermine purchasing power ya watu. Ingekuwa vizuri hiyo half a trillion iwe distributed well kwa wafanyakazi wa vima vya chini instead of paying almost 60% kwa viongozi. But as far as eliminating Posho as a whole, that is not a sollution.
Huwezi kupunguza posho by two thirds i.e 40% of 60%, hiyo hata kulipa mishahara utashindwa.
Kuhusu wataalam kama kina Lipumba....weell, I don't think so, those people have been in the system and proved failure, SAP haitusaidii pia. So in short we are really messed up.
But we can start with oil. Reduce oil consumption by both reducing oil imports and increasing productivity, coz what we really need is forex, haya madafu kwa kweli huwa hayna maana. Ni local currency, and local in Tanzania, means nothing but maize,rice and mangoes.

Ndugu Soby,

Hii sasa ndio inaitwa siasa katika uchumi labda nikuulize maswali.

a. Maendeleo gani yatakuja kwa kuwa na asilimia kubwa fedha za kigeni ? Wapi tutapata hizo fedha za kigeni?

b. Tuassume wewe uko sahihi tuendeleee kuwalipa wafanyakazi mishahara minono. Je hiyo mishahara itakuwa na manufaa ikiwa thamani ya shillingi inaporomoka na vile vile gharama za maisha kuongezeka kila siku?

c. Maprofessa na wataalamu wa uchumi nchini ni muhimu zaidi kwasababu wanafahamu hali halisi ya uchumi ila nimesema iwe team inaweza pia kujumuisha watu wa nje kama wa nchini wamekosekana.

d. How can we reduce our oil consumption wakati sisi ni emerging economies? Unajua gharama za kutumia mitambo isiyotumia mafuta? Unafikiri tunaweza kuafford them?

Hebu fafanua zaidi maana in short hizi naziona ni siasa.
 
[TABLE="class: cms_table"]
[TR]
[TD]Period[/TD]
[TD]Domestic Revenue (Tsh)[/TD]
[TD]Foreign Aid (Tsh)[/TD]
[TD]Overall Budget (Tsh)[/TD]
[TD]AID (Ushoga) as % of total budget[/TD]
[TD]Domestic Revenue as % of total budget[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2007 – 2008[/TD]
[TD]3.5 trillion[/TD]
[TD]2.5 trillion[/TD]
[TD]6.1 trillion[/TD]
[TD]41 %[/TD]
[TD]57 %[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2008 – 2009[/TD]
[TD]4.8 trillion[/TD]
[TD]2.4 trillion[/TD]
[TD]7.2 trillion[/TD]
[TD]33 %[/TD]
[TD]66 %[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2009 – 2010[/TD]
[TD]6.3 trillion[/TD]
[TD]3.1 trillion[/TD]
[TD]9.5 trillion[/TD]
[TD]33 %[/TD]
[TD]66 %[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2010 – 2011[/TD]
[TD]8.3 trillion[/TD]
[TD]3.2 trillion[/TD]
[TD]11.6trillion[/TD]
[TD]28 %[/TD]
[TD]72 %[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2011 - 2012[/TD]
[TD]6.7 trillion[/TD]
[TD]3.9 trillion[/TD]
[TD]13.5 trillion[/TD]
[TD]28 %[/TD]
[TD]49 %[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
Hapo panaopoonekana aid as total % of budget kuwa inashuka haina maana kuwa wanakopa less,bali ni kwamba mapato ya ndani yameongezeka lakini bila kuchukua hatu yoyote ya kupunguza aid money.
 
Ni assumption tu kwamba itasaidia kuwavutia wawekezajina kustimulate uchumi.Basi.

Kwenye swali la pili namwachia EMT mwenyewe akujibu.

Ila binafsi naamini kwenye ukusanyaji ni poor policies tu na mianya ya rushwa ni mojawapo ya sababu zinazoweza kufanya wasifikie target.

Hata hivo hiyo habari uliyo iquote sijui kama ina maanisha nini kwasababu inaonekana kama habari inakubaliana kuwa serikali ilifikia malengo yake na hapohapo inaonekana kupinga.

.
Kaka JMushi1 Ungerudi original post ya EMT ndio uelewe. This was edited to keep the point I wanted to stress on. Nadhani alikua anasema we TZ was doing fine ila at some point (2008, after recession) the tendancy was inverted and the collection of taxe (when taxed) has not been hitting its target.
Please EMT correct me if I am wrong.
 
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Kaka JMushi1 Ungerudi original post ya EMT ndio uelewe. This was edited to keep the point I wanted to stress on. Nadhani alikua anasema we TZ was doing fine ila at some point (2008, after recession) the tendancy was inverted and the collection of taxe (when taxed) has not been hitting its target.
Please EMT correct me if I am wrong.
Itakuwa vyema EMT akitusaidia hapo coz sijaona hizo data za miaka ambayo hakuwa fikia target.
 
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jamani kama mkiweza mshawishi jk aache kuzurura mtakuwa mmefanya jambo la maana sana, kwani anamaliza sana kodi zetu, kila siku kuzurura!
 
Itakuwa vyema EMT akitusaidia hapo coz sijaona hizo data za miaka ambayo hakuwa fikia target.
Revenue collection is increasing, actually in a very good pace. But it's the value of Shilling that is decreasing faster than the revenue. Im not really interested in Shillings. It's the forex that is killing us.
 
Mdondoaji,
I have just looked at your old posts kuhusu ugiriki....it must have been a very interesting debate; I don’t know how I missed that; cha kusikitisha zaidi - sio kwamba wahusika hawakuyaona haya; this was like 6 months ago;
Based on your thread, kama hizo sababu ndio kansa kwenye uchumi wa Ugiriki, basi na Tanzania we have just been diagnosed with kansa, the issue ni kwamba tutaiwahi au lah; kwani vitu vikubwa humo ni matumizi makubwa na mabaya ya serikali; Usimamizi mbovu wa kodi and tax evasion; kwetu tumeona jinsi gani up to 25% of the budget ni matumizi ya ovyo (this is very discouraging); pia tumeona katika mijadala yetu mingine ingawa tunajisifia kukusanya kodi kwa wingi tofauti na miaka ya nyuma, bado haisaidii kupunguza our budget deficit; isitoshe, tumejionea wenyewe kwamba kwa mwaka tunapoteza over 30% of the our revenues to tax evasion;
Kuhusu CAG on Debt ni sahihi kabisa kwamba ni mzigo mkubwa sana kwa mlipa kodi; hii ni kwa sababu tutake tusitake ni lazima serikali to attend external debt before domestic debt kwa njia ya exports zetu ambazo ndio dollar hizo hizo we need for mafuta etc, dollar ambazo tunawakamua maskini wa vijijini kwani the biggest foreign exchange earner bado ni kilimo. Hii ndio maana deni la serikali la ndani linazidi kupata riba na kurundikana huku la nje nalo liki get out of hand; na kibaya zaidi ni kwamba hata ndani serikali inazidi kukopa – inazidi kuongeza deficit ambayo ni mafuta katika petrol ya inflation; pia kukopa ndani ina ‘crowd out’ effect kwa SMEs kupata mikopo, sasa ukichanganya na hatua ya BOT juzi to reduce money supply by increasing bank rate and cash reserve requirements ndio kunapelekea huu uchumi wa Ndullu kuwa uchwara;
Katika hali kama hii, no wonder WorldBank came with a study kwamba about 71% of firms in Tanzania do not report all their sales for tax purposes; why should they wakati kwa upande mmoja wanapigwa na dhoruba la power cuts, kwingine wanapigwa na unanticipated inflation, kwingine wanapigwa na crowding effect kwenye domestic credit access kutokana na serikali kuzidisha its budget deficit?
Na kwa wananchi, VAT in Tanzania is 20%, the highest in East Africa kwani Kenya ni 16% na Uganda ni 18%; Ghana wenzetu as I said earlier wameamua kuwapunguzia mzigo wananchi on indirect tax ya VAT na kuamua ku focus on direct taxes kwenye sector ya madini na kwingineko; VAT (kodi kwenye mikate, maji ya uhai n.k) na Excise Duties (petrol, sigara, soda na Bia) kwa kweli sio suluhisho kwa nchi yenye watu million 45 ambapo over 30 million of these ni maskini wa kutupa; wengi wao wapo kwenye kilimo ambacho serikali inajaribu sana kupata mwanya wa kwenda kuwalima kodi huko as a means of expanding the tax base lakini inashindwa because a significant portion of sekta ya kilimo is not monetized ingawa ndio largest contributor wa pato letu la taifa (GDP); sekta nyingine muhimu ni ya madini but we all know kinachoendelea huko na kodi madini – kuna so many loopholes wanazotumia kukwepa kodi kupitia input zao kama mafuta n.k, let alone the meager 3% royalty charged by the government; sekta ya tatu kwa ukubwa ni utalii but huko napo based on the nature of cash transactions inawia vigumu kwa serikali kukusanya mapato kwa ufanisi kwani cash transactions always encourage tax evasion;

Sasa Serikali inabakia na nini?
Moja, kuna corporate tax at 30% - ila tunaona jinsi gani makampuni mengi ya nje yanadanganya kodi kwa kutoa taarifa za uongo, au kwa ku enjoy 5 years tax holidays (mfano Kempinski sasahivi ni Grand Hyatt na serikali imewapa pale ilipokuwa mahakama kuu ili waegeshe magari yao – angalau enzi zile magari yanayopaki pale kufuatilia kesi yalikuwa yanalipia sh 300 kwa siku to national parking system yam zee kingunge, but with the private parking lot ya Kempinski I mean Grand Hyatt, hata hizi hela tutazikosa kwani Grand Hyatt watatengeza hela zao, kodi hawalipi, na in 2016 watamleta Marriot or whoever they know); utapeli mwingine wa makampuni ya nje ni kupitia ‘tranfer pricing’ ambapo wanacheza na subsidiaries zao; Nje ya corporate tax kinachobakia ni VAT & excise duties kama tulivyokwisha ona;

Kwahiyo we are more likely to collapse kimapato kutokana na sababu za sekta ya kilimo (see above); sekta ya madini (see above); VAT ambayo hata wenzetu Ghana wameona ni mzigo wa wananchi; na Excise duty ambayo ni kodi measured by the amount of business done – na hutozwa kwenye sigara, bidhaa za mafuta, soda na bia;

Ebu tuitazame Excise Duty Kidogo:
By convention, excise hutoswa kulingana na volume yako ya business (production for instance); hii ina maana kwamba Cha kusikitisha ni kwamba kam Excise duty zinategemea volume of business, ina maana kwamba mgao wa umeme unapunguza uzalishaji wa sigara, bia, soda, hivyo kupelekea serikali kukusanya less taxes; as a matter of fact according to confederation of industries in Tanzania, uzalishaji Tanzania ulipungua by 50% kutokana na mgao wa umeme meaning, leaving other things constant, mgao umeme serikali mapato ya excise by 50% at least; Si ajabu ndio maana mapato ya serikali mwaka huu wa fedha yameshuka sana (see below):
Financial Period
Domestic Revenue (Tsh)
Foreign Aid (Tsh)
Overall Budget (Tsh)
AID (Ushoga) as % of total budget
Domestic Revenue as % of total budget
2007 – 2008
3.5 trillion
2.5 trillion
6.1 trillion
41 %
57 %
2008 – 2009
4.8 trillion
2.4 trillion
7.2 trillion
33 %
66 %
2009 – 2010
6.3 trillion
3.1 trillion
9.5 trillion
33 %
66 %
2010 – 2011
8.3 trillion
3.2 trillion
11.6trillion
28 %
72 %
2011 - 2012
6.7 trillion
3.9 trillion
13.5 trillion
28 %
49 %


Mkullo during the 2011 – 2012 budget alitamka kwamba lengo ni ifikapo 2015 dependency ya AID or Ushoga on our budget iwe in single digits i.e under 10%; malengo mazuri ila iwapo itatekelezeka; lakini based on challenges za ukusanyaji kodi tulizokwisha ziona hapo juu, hii itakuwa kazi sana kufanikisha; Ili kuthibitisha kauli yangu kwanini I dare to challenge Mkullo’s target – ebu tuangalie namba muhimu sana hapa chini:
Kwanza tujiulize – budget dependency on aid kawaida inashushwa na vitu gani? Tusisahau kwamba deni letu la nje limetulemea na la ndani linaelekea kuifilisi kabisa serikali kama bado haijafilisika; na tusisahau kwamba priority ya malipo ya madeni always huwa ni madeni ya nje kwanza then ya ndani.

Sasa turudi kuangalia uchumi Uchwara wa Mkullo na Ndullu wenye maneno mazuri kwamba by 2015, lengo ni Tanzania kushusha budget dependency on AID from current level of 28% to under 10% by the year 2015;

Swali:

Inakuwaje hapo kwenye jedwali tunaona marue rue – contribution of AID towards the budget for the financial year 2010 – 2011 was at 28% and contribution of domestic revenue on that budget was 72%; then look closely, in the following financial year i.e. 2011 – 2012 contribution ya AID on the budget was still at 28% but the contribution of domestic revenue fell very sharply from 72% to 49%? Hapa ndipo kuna tatizo lote la Uchumi Uchwara wa Mkullo na Ndullu na ndio kiini cha kansa itayotupelekea kuwa mufilisi huku tukiwa TUMETHUBUTU, TUMEWEZA NA TUNASONGA MBELE.

SASA hapo uchumi uchwara upo wapi?! Hivi kweli hapo panahitajika close look kama ilivyosema?! Mbona kila ki2 kipo wazi?! In 2010/2011 makusanyo ya serikali(domestic revenue) yalikuwa makubwa (8.3 Trillion) wakati bajeti was only 11.6 Trillion......kwa lugha ya hesabu nyepesi ni kwamba, wakati makusanyo yalikuwa ahueni, bajeti ilikuwa ndogo!!! In 2011/2012, makusanyo ya serikali yalikuwa madogo(only 6.7 Trillion) as compared to 2010/2011. Hata hivyo, ili shughuli ziweze kuendelea, bajeti ilipanda frm 11.6 Trillion to 13.5 trillion!! Kwa lugha ile ile ya hesabu nyepesi (am confident kwamba wengi wetu humu namba zinatupiga chenga) ni kwamba, wakati makusanyo(domestic revenue) yameshuka, bajeti imeongezka na ndio maana Domestic Revenue as % of total budget ime-drop from 72% to 49%!!!! Kwa uchumi wa kwako wewe, wa kuangalia % growth in Domestic Revenue as % of total budget ni kwamba as far as Domestic Revenue ilishuka, then, Bajeti nayo ingekuwa ndogo!!!!! Broda, hapo hakuna uchumi uchwara, labda concern yako iwe ni kushuka kwa domestic revenue!!! Na kwa mtu anayefahamu mambo ya uchumi hawezi kushangaa, i hope wewe ni mchumi, lakini hata kama sio, try to study economic graphs......cjawahi ona any economic graph ambayo ina-rise exponentially; always mambo ya fluctuations ni ya kawaida katika uchumi wowote ule dunian, unless kama unataka kusema our economy is very exceptional ambao ni never affected by other economic factors (controllable and uncontrollable factors). Try to investigate even our personal economy; always fluctuations broda!!! Tuache kulalamika na kulaumu, let's find out de way ya kuongeza vyanzo vya mapato ya serikali, upunguzwaji wa posho ni chanzo kidogo sana cha kuongeza mapato.......Let's sit down na kuangalia stable and sustainable additional domestic revenue sources. Nilipitia bajeti ya upinzani huku nikitarajia huko ningekuta njia mbadala, lakini nao waliishia porojo za kisiasa na wala hakukuwa na vyanzo vya maana vya kuongeza mapato!!!
 
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=NasDazTrillion to 13.5 trillion!! Kwa lugha ile ile ya hesabu nyepesi (am confident kwamba wengi wetu humu namba zinatupiga chenga) ni kwamba, wakati makusanyo(domestic revenue) yameshuka, bajeti imeongezka na ndio maana Domestic Revenue as % of total budget ime-drop from 72% to 49%!!!! Kwa uchumi wa kwako wewe, wa kuangalia % growth in Domestic Revenue as % of total budget ni kwamba as far as Domestic Revenue ilishuka, then, Bajeti nayo ingekuwa ndogo!!!!! Broda
Hapo hujaeleweka kabisa,umetafsiri kinyume.Angalia relations ya domestic revenue as a % of total budget na domestic revenue halafu ulinganishe na ya foreign aid as a % of total budget
 
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Mkuu EMT, nina swali, samahani: where are the exemptions coming from? Ni national policy ya kuwafurahisha investors au ni condition ya donors? Swali la pili: why do they fail to raise what they targeted? again wanataka kuwafurahisha the tax payers au ni insolvency ya walipa kodi?

RR,

Kujibu swali lako la pili, according to a paper which was presented by TRA Deputy Commissioner General, Mr Placidus Luoga, on behalf of the TRA Commissioner General, Mr Harry Kitillya, to Members of Parliament on March 2011, on an overview of TRA's performance and future prospects, says expressly that tax exemptions to big investment companies are adversely affecting revenue collection. Mr Luoga told MPs that Tanzania records high percentage rate in tax exemption, which currently stands at two per cent, among the East African countries of Kenya and Uganda, which each records one per cent tax relief only.

Kuhusu swali la kwanza the legal basis for tax exemptions come from the Tanzania Investment Act 1997. Whether ni kuwafurahisha investors au ni condition ya donors, cheki posts zangu kwenye thread ya "Kilimanjaro Kempinski yabadilishwa jina": https://www.jamiiforums.com/jukwaa-la-siasa/158321-kilimanjaro-kempinski-yabadilishwa-jina-6.html .
 
Ni assumption tu kwamba itasaidia kuwavutia wawekezajina kustimulate uchumi.Basi.

Kwenye swali la pili namwachia EMT mwenyewe akujibu.

Ila binafsi naamini kwenye ukusanyaji ni poor policies tu na mianya ya rushwa ni mojawapo ya sababu zinazoweza kufanya wasifikie target.

Hata hivo hiyo habari uliyo iquote sijui kama ina maanisha nini kwasababu inaonekana kama habari inakubaliana kuwa serikali ilifikia malengo yake na hapohapo inaonekana kupinga.

.

Mkuu ungesoma the next paragraph nimeandika:

"Lakini serikali ilivyoanza ku-implement tax exemptions, mwaka 2008/9 TRA ilikusanya Sh 4.051 trillion against its targeted Sh 4.497 trillion. Hii ilijirudia tena mwaka 2009/10 ambapo makusanyo ya kodi dropped from the targeted Sh 4.855 trillion to Sh 4.437 trillion. Between July 2010 and February 2011, TRA collected Sh 3.391 trillion of its targeted Sh 3.686 trillion-revenue collection. Halafu unasuggest tusibane matumizi; tuendeleee kupeana posho tuu. If you want to spend, you must maximize your income na sio kukopa."

Nilichotaka kuonnyesha ni kwamba hadi mwaka 2007/2008 walikuwa wana meet target na hata ku-exceed. Lakini kuanzia mwaka 2008/9 hasa baada ya ku-implement tax exemptions kwa kasi, wameshindwa kufikia hata target.
 
Revenue collection is increasing, actually in a very good pace. But it's the value of Shilling that is decreasing faster than the revenue. Im not really interested in Shillings. It's the forex that is killing us.
Shilingi yetu inashuka thamani consequences ndo hizi kwasababu uchumi unazidi kuporomoka kutokana pia na kuongezeka kwa thamani ya deni la nje pamoja na wasi wasi kuwa serikali haitaweza kulipa madeni yake.

Thamani ya shilingi inaposhuka,deni letu linazidi kupanda in terms of dollar.

Kama serikali ina hatari ya ku default madeni yake,basi ujuwe kuna uwezekano ikarun bakrupt
 
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Kaka JMushi1 Ungerudi original post ya EMT ndio uelewe. This was edited to keep the point I wanted to stress on. Nadhani alikua anasema we TZ was doing fine ila at some point (2008, after recession) the tendancy was inverted and the collection of taxe (when taxed) has not been hitting its target.
Please EMT correct me if I am wrong.

Spot on.
 
Mkuu ungesoma the next paragraph nimeandika:

"Lakini serikali ilivyoanza ku-implement tax exemptions, mwaka 2008/9 TRA ilikusanya Sh 4.051 trillion against its targeted Sh 4.497 trillion. Hii ilijirudia tena mwaka 2009/10 ambapo makusanyo ya kodi dropped from the targeted Sh 4.855 trillion to Sh 4.437 trillion. Between July 2010 and February 2011, TRA collected Sh 3.391 trillion of its targeted Sh 3.686 trillion-revenue collection. Halafu unasuggest tusibane matumizi; tuendeleee kupeana posho tuu. If you want to spend, you must maximize your income na sio kukopa."

Nilichotaka kuonnyesha ni kwamba hadi mwaka 2007/2008 walikuwa wana meet target na hata ku-exceed. Lakini kuanzia mwaka 2008/9 hasa baada ya ku-implement tax exemptions kwa kasi, wameshindwa kufikia hata target.
Mkuu hizo target zao huwa wanaziweka kwa kutumia vigezo gani?Kwasababu sijui kwanini uweke target halafu ujumuishe na zile ambazo unadhani zitakuwa under exemptions.

Hiyo haimake sense kabisa.

Huwezi ukasema eti this will be exempeted halafu ukadai at the same time exemption ni failure to reach the target.

Ni sawa na kushoot your own foot.
 
masikini Tanzania yangu, imevamiwa then ikatekelezwa na hawa mapunga zeze!
 
Revenue collection is increasing, actually in a very good pace. But it's the value of Shilling that is decreasing faster than the revenue. Im not really interested in Shillings. It's the forex that is killing us.
Sasa mtakuwaje na forex kama hamna bidhaa mnazouza nje? Tunanunua kutoka nje hata vitu ambavyo tuna uwezo wa kuzalisha wenyewe.
We have created a dependency economy. Brazil iliweza kujikwamua baada ya kuwa na bidhaa za kuuza nje. Nakumbuka in the 70's ukinunua kiatu kizuri cha bei poa katika soko la Marekani kilikuwa kimetengenezwa Brazil. What do we have to sell on the world market? Kahawa haitoshi. I met an Australian who had been to Tanzania akaniambia alitaka kununua instant coffee, akaenda Bukoba kiwandani akawapa requirements zake. Yaani hata kama wangempa kahawa yote inayozalishwa na Instant coffeee, isingekidhi mahitaji yake, which shows kuwa soko lipo lakini changamoto ni kwetu sisi kuzalisha vya kutosha kwa mahitaji yetu na kwa soko la nje.
 
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