evidence tunakopa from external sources? less than $2 bln ndo itatoka nje for Tanzanian budget!
Economics
Kenya to Borrow $12.4 Billion Abroad by June 2022, IMF Says
By
David Herbling
7. April 2021, 12:18 MESZ Updated on 7. April 2021, 15:27 MESZ
- Seeks $7.3 million Eurobonds, $4.8 billion concessional debt
- Kenya is at high risk of debt distress, according to IMF
Kenya plans to borrow $12.4 billion between now and June 2022 from foreign sources, the International Monetary Fund said in a report detailing terms and conditions of a separate $2.34 billion financing package approved by its board last week.
The amount includes $7.3 billion in Eurobonds, $4.8 billion in concessionary borrowing and $282 million semi-concessional loans, the IMF said in a report on its website. About $2.3 billion of the Eurobonds will be new borrowing to be spent on infrastructure projects, while $5 billion is refinancing for a Eurobond maturing in 2024 and to retire pricey syndicated loans, it said.
The external borrowing during the next 14 months amounts to about 6% to 7% of gross domestic product, according to Yvonne Mhango, head of research for sub-Saharan Africa at Renaissance Capital.
“It’s a significant amount for a country with debt that is already close to 70% of GDP, and one that is at high risk of debt distress,” she said. “The increase in domestic yields may be a factor that compelled the authorities to seek some external financing. However, we expected an increase in concessional financing to help keep financing costs moderate.”
Key Highlights:
- “While Kenya is at high risk of debt distress and subject to zero limits on non-concessional borrowing, the authorities have requested, and staff supports, non-zero limit exceptions for project financing and debt-management operations,” according to the IMF report.
- Some of the reforms Kenya will implement during the 38-month IMF program include broadening the tax base to grow revenue and freezing civil-service recruitment.
- Treasury also agreed to evaluate fiscal risks posed by about 20 large state-owned enterprises including Kenya Airways Plc, Kenya Railways Corp., Kenya Power and Lighting Co., Kenya Electricity Generating Co. The state will seek an independent adviser to evaluate the financial situation of its national airline and the least costly restructuring options for the company.
- By October 2022, Kenya would have expanded reporting on public debt to cover non-guaranteed public-sector debt, including arrears.
- It also plans to adopt e-procurement for transparency, strengthen its anti-money laundering measures, and make it mandatory for companies to declare their ownership to support anti-corruption efforts.
- Treasury also plans to review the legal debt ceiling in the coming fiscal year to ensure it “remains consistent with program targets.”
- Ghana’s successful issuance last week signals there’s still strong appetite for high-yield sovereign credit and Kenya will likely draw interest despite deteriorating public finances, according to Irmgard Erasmus, a senior financial economist at NKC African Economics.
- Kenya’s outstanding dollar bonds don’t offer much value, according to Erasmus, “but the global backdrop should be favorable for high-yield frontier market issuers especially non-fuel commodity exporters. Kenya is trading expensive but yield-seeking may stoke appetite for new issuance still, especially with the U.S. Fed maintaining highly accommodative stance with rate lift-off seen in mid-2023 only.”
- Yields on Kenyan Eurobonds due in 2024 fell 8 basis points to 3.493% by 4:25 p.m. in Nairobi, the capital, the most in almost a month.
(Updates with bond yields in final bullet)
VS
Economics
East Africa Seeks $16 Billion of Debt to Spur Economies
By
David Herbling
10. Juni 2021, 05:00 MESZ Updated on 10. Juni 2021, 19:05 MESZ
- States see strong recovery after pandemic hit revenues
- Kenya, Uganda and Tanzania budgets to be presented on June 10
The countries are betting on a strong economic recovery for a rebound in revenues that will help narrow fiscal deficits.
Photographer: Fredrik Lerneryd/Bloomberg
East Africa’s largest economies plan to borrow at least $16 billion to fund an economic revival, while striving to ease their debt burdens after the coronavirus pandemic battered governments’ revenue.
Finance ministers in Kenya, Uganda and Tanzania will present their 2021-22 spending plans on Thursday, providing details on funding key projects, including building railways and ports, in the wake of heavy indebtedness. The three governments will contend with a combined budget shortfall of about $16.4 billion in the fiscal year. Kenya, East Africa’s largest economy, faces a gap of $8.8 billion equivalent to 7.7% of gross domestic product, which it plans to fill with external and domestic borrowing.
“Policy makers will this year need to lay bare their fiscal consolidation plans and address the elevated debt burdens,” Jacques Nel, head of Africa Macro at
NKC African Economics, said in emailed responses to questions. “Developmental needs and projects already underway mean that there is little room to cut spending.”
Budget Gap
East Africa's biggest economies plan to cut their fiscal deficits
Source: Finance ministries of respective countries
Note: Chart shows government estimates for 2021 and 2022
The countries are betting on a strong economic recovery for a rebound in revenues that will help narrow fiscal deficits. The International Monetary Fund projects 2022 growth of 5.7% for Kenya, 5% for Uganda, 4.6% for Tanzania and 8.7% for Ethiopia.
Here’s what to expect when the finance ministers present their budget statements for the year starting July 1:
Kenya
President Uhuru Kenyatta’s administration is poised to borrow more to fund an 8.8% increase in spending to 3.66 trillion shillings ($33.9 billion). The added expenditure is fueled by Kenyatta’s need to continue investing in expressways, ports and railways as he nears the end of his second term in office next year.
Treasury Secretary Ukur Yatani asked lawmakers on Wednesday to approve a 4%
increase in spending for year ending June 30, which is set to widen the budget gap.
Debt Burden
Kenya's debt-servicing cost is projected to grow 22% in 2022
Source: National Treasury
Note: Chart shows data for fiscal years ending June 30
The public debt-service costs will probably surge to a record 1.17 trillion shillings, consuming about two-thirds of domestic revenue, according to the parliamentary budget office. That exceeds the 660 billion shillings that Yatani proposes to spend on development projects.
more: Kenya 2021-22 Budget Gap Seen Narrowing to 7.7% of GDP vs 8.7%
Tanzania
The government has
increased its budget by 4% to 36.3 trillion shillings ($15.7 billion) in Samia Suluhu Hassan’s first fiscal year as president. She has approached the IMF for a program to support her administration in mitigating the impact of the pandemic, and to implement a recovery plan.
Tanzania plans to borrow close to 10.2 trillion shillings, about half of which will come from external sources.
Hassan is preparing to procure vaccines for her people, begin delayed investments such as the $30 billion liquefied natural gas project led by Equinor ASA, and continue multi-billion programs including an oil-export pipeline with Uganda. Still, the government is optimistic of keeping its fiscal deficit below 3% of GDP.
Uganda
Uganda has
reduced its planned expenditure by 2% to 44.7 trillion shillings ($12.6 billion), and intends to narrow the fiscal deficit to 6.4% of GDP from an estimated 9.7% in the year ending June 30. The government of Africa’s largest coffee exporter is in talks with the IMF for a $1 billion loan to boost its recovery plan.
Ballooning Debt
Borrowing for key infrastructure projects is driving up Ugandan debt
Source: Ministry of Finance, Planning and Economic Development
Note: Chart shows data for fiscal years ending June 30
Debt could approach 50% of GDP at the end of June, according to Moody’s Investors Service. “Persistently large fiscal deficits” lifted the government’s debt burden to about 40% of GDP in fiscal 2020 from 22% in 2013, Moody’s said in a statement.
Ethiopia
Planned expenditure for Africa’s second-most populous nation will
grow by nearly a fifth to 561.7 billion birr ($13 billion) for the fiscal year starting July 8. The government is walking a tight rope between sustaining the fastest pace of economic growth in the region, and keeping a lid on debt.
Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s administration sold a telecommunications license to a Safaricom Plc-led consortium last month under a plan to liberalize the economy. Doing business in the country might, however, depend on the impact of U.S. sanctions against Ethiopia over its handling of the war in the northern Tigray region. The restrictions could also affect Ethiopia’s access to funding from the IMF and the World Bank, and probably complicate its intention to restructure some liabilities under the Group of 20 debt-relief initiative for poor nations.
Rwanda
The government has raised its
annual budget by 10% to 3.81 trillion francs ($3.8 billion), and is also in talks with the IMF for a funding program. About a third of the budget will be funded from external sources.
The IMF concluded discussions with Rwanda on the fourth review of an ongoing Policy Coordination Instrument last month. The Fund projected Rwanda’s economy to grow at 5.1% this year, compared to a contraction of 3.4% in 2020.
“Most countries don’t have an option but to seek concessional borrowing in order to plug funding gaps,” said Mohamed Abu Basha, head of macroeconomic analysis at EFG Hermes Holdings. “In the short term, it will be all about stabilization.”
— With assistance by Fred Ojambo, Fumbuka Ng'Wanakilala, Saul Butera, Desire Nimubona, Fasika Tadesse, Okech Francis, and Prinesha Naidoo
(An earlier version of this story was corrected to remove reference to funding in penultimate paragraph)