US Election Coverage 2008

[Nyambala]

Clinton playing by her own set of rules

Hillary Clinton leads Barack Obama in the popular vote, and this is her path to victory.


She will ultimately win the Democratic nomination by convincing the superdelegates that her popular vote lead makes it legitimate for them to support her. It gives them the cover they need to deny Obama a nomination that he otherwise would have won.

What's wrong with this picture?

First, Clinton does not lead Obama in the popular vote. It is a fantasy.

Second, the people she most needs to convince that this fantasy is true are the people least likely to believe it.
Let's first deal with Clinton's fantasy lead in the popular vote.

"I'm very proud that as of today, I have received more votes by the people who have voted than anyone else," Clinton said the day after her victory in the April 22 Pennsylvania primary.

But has she really? No. Not really. Not unless you throw out the existing rules of the Democratic Party and invent a new set of Hillary Rules.

Under Hillary Rules, Clinton counts the popular vote in Michigan, where she was the only major candidate on the ballot. The Democratic Party does not recognize those votes.

Under Hillary Rules, Clinton also counts the popular vote in Florida, where candidates were forbidden to campaign. The Democratic Party does not recognize the results of the Florida primary, either.

Under Hillary Rules, Clinton throws out the "votes by the people who have voted" in the states of Iowa, Nevada, Maine and Washington, because those were caucus states, where popular vote tallies were not officially kept and where, by the way, Obama won three out of the four contests.

Under Hillary Rules, Clinton gets to choose the contests that help her, throw out the contests that do not and declare herself the winner.
Steve Kornacki of The New York Observer did an excellent, detailed story last week on Clinton and the popular vote, going through a number of different scenarios and projections for the contests that remain.

His conclusion: "The point is that under the most basic and probably the fairest criteria -- simply counting every state and U.S. possession where there was a legitimate primary or a caucus where popular votes were tallied -- Obama will finish the primary season hundreds of thousands of votes ahead of Clinton."

But, hey, he's a journalist, and journalists don't count. Only the superdelegates count now, and this is where Hillary must win.

Which is her real problem. As I have previously pointed out, 56 percent of all superdelegates are members of the Democratic National Committee itself, and the DNC represents the largest bloc of delegates who have not yet committed to a candidate.

Am I saying that the DNC, the ultimate insiders, could decide who the Democratic nominee is? Yes, that is exactly what I am saying.

Why is this a problem for Clinton?

Because more than anybody, DNC members know that the popular vote doesn't count, even though Clinton says it does.

The DNC made the current rules. If it had wanted a national primary, a day on which all Democrats across the land would vote and choose the nominee (a legitimate idea), it would have created such a system.

But the DNC created a different system, one in which pledged delegates -- selected from legitimate primaries and caucuses -- and superdelegates get to select the nominee.

OK, but let's say you got the DNC members really, really drunk (not an outrageous scenario) and convinced them that the popular vote ought to count. Could you then convince them that counting Michigan and Florida makes sense?

No way. For starters, the DNC is the group that declared Michigan and Florida rogue states in the first place. Do you really think the DNC is now likely to accept the popular vote count from those states?

Second, to make Clinton's popular vote fantasy work, you have to throw out the votes in legitimate caucus states such as Iowa. The DNC turns its back on Iowa? As if.

Lastly, there is the big picture: Will the DNC really overturn the choice of the pledged delegates and substitute Clinton as the nominee over Obama?

I doubt it. First and foremost, DNC members care about the party and its future. So ask yourself: Is the DNC going to shatter the party by telling black voters and young voters that their votes in legitimate primaries and caucuses do not count?
Clinton can try to make up her own set of rules, but that doesn't mean they are going to rule the DNC or the day.

Source:yahoonews

 

[Susuviri]

Sorry, kwa wale mnaosema Clinton ni electable alafu mnamshabikia McCain, naomba niwape taarifa that GOP knows who the Democratic nominee is and are acting, ndiyo maana Obama is so much under fire. But depite the attack from the GOP, Clinton and media he is going strong! Haya check the Silent treatment that Hillary is getting from GOP:

From top to bottom, from McCain down to the youthful campaign and party staffers who work nearly around the clock to get him elected, the working assumption seems to be that the Democratic contest is over and Obama has won.

Even when Clinton attacks McCain, President Bush or GOP policies, the response is either outright silence or snarky, dismissive ridicule about a failed campaign barely relevant enough to merit a response.

"With ads like that, it's more likely the call at 3 a.m. is 'Senator, you just lost another superdelegate,'" quipped McCain adviser Steve Schmidt earlier this month when Clinton aired a version of her "3 a.m." ad attacking McCain on the economy.

In one revealing glimpse into Republican thinking, when McCain quickly hit back with an ad of his own parroting the genre, he incorporated Barack Obama's name into the response and spent little money airing it.

Clinton, it seems, has been erased from the picture, Soviet-style. Republicans mostly act like she doesn't exist--an unusual turn of events considering her run of big-state victories and the fact that not so long ago Republican campaign plans were predicated on the idea of Clinton as the Democratic nominee.

Indeed, her recent success has only increased the volume and ferocity of the attacks--not on her, but on Obama.

After her Pennsylvania win last week, the RNC did not send a single e-mail focused on Clinton through Monday. At the same time, the committee blasted out 18 that attacked Obama.

Food for thought.

 

[Nyani Ngabu]

Ok, ni nyinyi (wewe Susuviri na wenzako including Rufiji) mlisema hii ishu ya Wright ni non-issue. I hope deep down in your hearts know that you were wrong.

Haya, Obama is unstopable na hakuna hata haja ya kuwa na uchaguzi. Akiingia White House tu...boom....mafuta yatarudi kuwa $.99/ gl. Kila kitu kitakuwa freshi...Farrakhan and Wright will meet with the Grand Dragon of the KKK and everything will be hunky dory....

 

[DAR si LAMU]

..watu walale milango wazi na wakitaka walale nje pia!

..rais ajae marekani anafahamika!

..let's keep the merry-go-round!

 

[DAR si LAMU]

..rais ajae marekani anafahamika!

..tip:ask the europeans!

 

[Susuviri]

Ok, ni nyinyi (wewe Susuviri na wenzako including Rufiji) mlisema hii ishu ya Wright ni non-issue. I hope deep down in your hearts know that you were wrong.
....

NOPE! I know that I am right and neither sarcasm nor denial will change the facts.

Early in the morning, naomba niwakaribishe Mei Mosi all Hillary supporters with this breaking news ... while you were sleeping .... Hillary got a 3am call ... she just lost a super delegate.....

Joe Andrew who was DNC chairman under Bill Clinton has, without prompting from the Obama campaign, switched his support to Barack Obama.

He's planning to announce on Thursday in his home state of Indiana, and will urge the people of Indiana to end this primary by choosing Barack Obama.

"I am convinced that the primary process has devolved to the point that it's now bad for the Democratic Party," Andrew said in a telephone interview
While I was hopeful that a long, contested primary season would invigorate our party, the polls show that the tone and temperature of the race is now hurting us," Andrew wrote. "John McCain, without doing much of anything, is now competitive against both of our remaining candidates. We are doing his work for him and distracting Americans from the issues that really affect all of our lives." "He has shown such mettle under fire," Andrew said in the interview. "The Jeremiah Wright controversy just reconfirmed for me, just as the gas tax controversy confirmed for me, that he is the right candidate for our party."
[/B]

Sasa tunamsubiri Carville atoke na hasira zake CNN akimtukana Andrews na kumwita "Judas!" 😀

Oh! and FYI before Hillary camp again dismisses this as insignificant this is a 2 delegate loss for their candidate. As she has LOST 1 delegate and Obama has GAINED one so now Hillary is only 18 superdelegates ahead of Hillary. A month ago he was behind 100 superdelegates.
SNAP!

 

[Nyambala]

DNC chairman under Bill Clinton: Unite behind Obama

NEDRA PICKLER, Associated Press Writer


WASHINGTON - A leader of the Democratic Party under Bill Clinton has switched his allegiance to Barack Obama and is encouraging fellow Democrats to "heal the rift in our party" and unite behind the Illinois senator.

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Joe Andrew, who was Democratic National Committee chairman from 1999-2001, planned a news conference Thursday in his hometown of Indianapolis to urge other Hoosiers to support Obama in Tuesday's primary, perhaps the most important contest left in the White House race. He also has written a lengthy letter explaining his decision that he plans to send to other superdelegates.

"I am convinced that the primary process has devolved to the point that it's now bad for the Democratic Party," Andrew said in a telephone interview with The Associated Press.

Bill Clinton appointed Andrew chairman of the DNC near the end of his presidency, and Andrew endorsed the former first lady last year on the day she declared her candidacy for the White House.

Andrew said in his letter that he is switching his support because "a vote for Hillary Clinton is a vote to continue this process, and a vote to continue this process is a vote that assists (Republican) John McCain."

"While I was hopeful that a long, contested primary season would invigorate our party, the polls show that the tone and temperature of the race is now hurting us," Andrew wrote. "John McCain, without doing much of anything, is now competitive against both of our remaining candidates. We are doing his work for him and distracting Americans from the issues that really affect all of our lives."

Andrew said the Obama campaign never asked him to switch his support, but he decided to do so after watching Obama's handling of two issues in recent days. He said Obama took the principled stand in opposing a summer gas tax holiday that both Clinton and McCain supported, even though it would have been easier politically to back it. And he said he was impressed with Obama's handling of the controversy surrounding his former pastor, the Rev. Jeremiah Wright.

Wright's outspoken criticisms of the United States have threatened Obama's candidacy. Obama initially refused to denounce his former pastor, but he did so this week after Wright suggested that Obama secretly agrees with him.

"He has shown such mettle under fire," Andrew said in the interview. "The Jeremiah Wright controversy just reconfirmed for me, just as the gas tax controversy confirmed for me, that he is the right candidate for our party."

Andrew's decision puts Obama closer to closing Clinton's superdelegate lead. Clinton had a big advantage among superdelegates, many of whom like Andrews have ties to the Clintons and backed her candidacy early on. But most of the superdelegates taking sides recently have gone for Obama, who has won more state contests.

Obama now trails her by just 19 superdelegates, 244-263. This week, he picked up eight superdelegates while she netted three.

Superdelegates are nearly 800 elected leaders and Democratic Party officials who aren't bound by the outcome of state contests and can cast their ballot for any candidate at the national convention. They are especially valuable in this race since neither Clinton nor Obama can win enough pledged delegates to secure the nomination through state-by-state elections.

Obama now leads in the delegate count overall 1732.5 to 1597.5 for Clinton. A candidate needs 2,025 delegates to win the nomination. About 230 superdelegates remain undecided, and about 60 more will be selected at state party conventions and meetings throughout the spring.

Other party leaders are encouraging superdelegates to pick a side by late June to prevent the fight from going to the national convention in August. Andrews wrote in his letter that he is calling for "fellow superdelegates across the nation to heal the rift in our party and unite behind Barack Obama."

It's the second endorsement for Obama this week that could be influential in Indiana. Rep. Baron Hill, who represents a crucial swing district in the state, endorsed Obama on Wednesday. Clinton has the backing of Indiana Sen. Evan Bayh, who has a vast organization in the state and has been campaigning aggressively with the former first lady.

Obama and Clinton are running close in Indiana and both need a victory there - Obama to help rebound from a loss to Clinton in Pennsylvania and to prove he can win Midwestern voters and Clinton so she can overcome Obama's lead in the race overall

 

[Susuviri]

Happy May Day Icadon, YNIM Game Theory, Nyambala and all Obama Nation! Drip drip, drop, drop, here come the superdelegates

GOBAMA'

 

[Susuviri]

Nyani and the rest of McCain - Hillary 08 camp , this one's for you
( Man standing is Terry McAuliffe who heads Clinton08 campaign and then was DNC chair, seated is Joe Andrews outgoing DNC chair who just switched from Clinton to Obama

 

[Susuviri]

And just in case you want a crystal ball to see alittle in the future, next week Obama is picking up more superdelegates

WASHINGTON--When the Democratic Party of Illinois meet next week to finish filling out the delegate slate, Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) will pick up three more superdelegates, according to Steve Brown, a spokesman for state party chair Michael Madigan, who is also the speaker of the Illinois House.

That's because the three appointments are all pledged to Obama: Mayor Daley --he shares strategist David Axelrod with Obama and brother Bill, the former Commerce Secetary is on the Obama team; Illinois House Majority Leader Barbara Flynn Currie (D-Chicago), a Hyde Parker who lives near the Obamas'; and Cook County Board President Todd Stroger.

Ok, ngoja niwaache kwanza Clinton camp ipoe kidogo.

 

[Nyani Ngabu]

And just in case you want a crystal ball to see alittle in the future, next week Obama is picking up more superdelegates



Ok, ngoja niwaache kwanza Clinton camp ipoe kidogo.

No need for Hillary or McCain to contest this election...
Let Obama be the president so he can transform this nation into paradise
Once Obama becomes the president all will be hunky dory..
I say let him be president for life, why not?

 

[Nyani Ngabu]

NOPE! I know that I am right and neither sarcasm nor denial will change the facts.

Early in the morning, naomba niwakaribishe Mei Mosi all Hillary supporters with this breaking news ... while you were sleeping .... Hillary got a 3am call ... she just lost a super delegate.....


Sasa tunamsubiri Carville atoke na hasira zake CNN akimtukana Andrews na kumwita "Judas!" 😀

Oh! and FYI before Hillary camp again dismisses this as insignificant this is a 2 delegate loss for their candidate. As she has LOST 1 delegate and Obama has GAINED one so now Hillary is only 18 superdelegates ahead of Hillary. A month ago he was behind 100 superdelegates.
SNAP!

I've given up...this Obama train is unstopable....

 

[William J. Malecela]

Ni wishful thinking ya Nyani, FMES na wenzake kwamba this Wright issue is soooo BAD for Obama na itaaffect everything and that McCain is so tough.

Mkuu samahani mimi huwa sijiiingizi kwenye yanga na simba, mwanzoni nilikuwa ninamuamini Jaluo, lakini juzi amenihakikishia kuwa ni another politician kama kina Clinton, alipojaribu kumkana mtu aliyemfikisha alipo, yaani mkulu wright na the fact kwamba amekuwa akimkana, wakati Wright anasema walikuwa wote ile siku alipotangaza kugombea lakini alimficha basement, that is pathetic!

My conclusion ni kwamba Democratic party, haina tofauti yoyote na chama cha Mtikila, either chama ni kibovu au kionaongozwa na viongozi wabovu au hakina viongozi period, kama kipo kweli, halafu for some very unknown reasons, waa-Afrika tunaonekana kuwakumbatia sana hawa wapuuzi Democrats, ambao hawana muelekeo wala fresh ideas, wamepitwa sana na wakati na belive me kama sio huu uchaguzi nisingewaelewa kabisa kama ninavyowaelewa sasa, Republicans would never let chama chao kikajivuruga namna hii,

Hao superdelegates wa Congress wanashawishiwa na Pelosi, another joke, spika wa bunge lenye 28% approval against 31% approval kwa Joji Kichaka, yaani hata Kichaka anawazidi akili, wakati wao walichaguliwa ili kumnyooosha Kichaka, miaka miwili ya uongozi wao Democrats, kila kitu kimepanda bei mara mbili, Mkuu hizo hela Jaluo anapewa na wanaomchukia Hillary kina Moore, another joke, so far wanachoweza ni kumpitisha Jaluo tu kwenye nomination, lakini hawawezi kumpa urais maana walishindwa kumpa Gore, ni hao hao pia walishindwa kumpa urais Kerry,

Viongozi wa chama chochote cha siasa wenye akili za kuona mbele, by now wasingeruhusu huu mpasuko kufikia ulipo sasa, walitakiwa kuwaunganisha mapema, ili angalau wawe na strong tiketi, matokeo sasa ni Republicans doing enything they could kumsaidia Hillary, na hasa hiii "Operation Chaos" inayoongozwa na mazee Rush, watu laki moja na sitini wa Republican party wali-cross the line na kumpigia kura Hillary, kule Penn state, Hillary alishinda kwa kura laki mbili, kwa hiyo ina maana kati ya hizo kura laki moja na sitini ni za Republicans, sasa kwenye General election itakuwaje?

Makeni kutokuwa na hela sio tatizo, hajawahi kuwa na hela lakini mbona alimshinda bwana hela Romney? Wamarekani wanaenda na a winner, sasa hivi hela zitaanza kumwagika kwa Makeni, kwa sababu watu wengi wameshaanza kukata tamaa na Jaluo, mwanzoni nilikuwa ninazimia na Jaluo, lakini I am sorry next time agombee akiwa Republican sio Democrats, ni chama kibovu kazi kila wakati kuwa on defensive, na kuficha ficha uovu wa viongozi wao, halafu ukijulikana wanahangaika, tizama sasa wameficha uchafu wa Jaluo weee ambao kwanza sio a serious uchafu ambao ungetolewa mwanzoni wala isingefikia hivi, lakini ni kwa sababu ni incompetent kama mtandao, ndio maana hawafai,

Democrat ya kina JFK, sio hiii ya sasa, mkuu wangu unayesema kuwa Jaluo hajawa afected tafuta namba za kuanzia juzi zinasema nini kuhusu kushindana na Makeni, huu uchaguzi umenisaidia one thing ume-expose uozo wa Democrat kuwa ni chama kisichokuwa na muelekeo wala mpangilio!

 

[Nyani Ngabu]

Halafu hawa watu weusi wananishangaza sana. Eti wamewakomalia kina Clinton na tuhuma za ubaguzi wakati Pat Buchanan wa PMS-NBC aliandika makala ya kibaguzi kweli kweli lakini siwasikii hao kina Clyburn wakiishikia bango hiyo network ambayo inam-support Obama....hehehe...yangu macho

 

[Susuviri]

FMES, kumradhi, ni kweli umekuwa objective kwa muda mrefu and I am sorry that you feel disappointed, lakini nadhani jinsi muda utakavyoendelea utaona kwamba hivi sasa Democratic party is in the midst of redefining itself.
Kama utakuwa umefuatilia siasa yao ( and you seem very knowledgeable) unajua ya kwamba hivi sasa kuna struggle within DNC kwani the Clinton camp iliyoongozwa na Terry McAuliffe na iliyounda DLC wanataka kukaa centre zaidi and are held hostage to corporate interst, na hivi sasa kuna kambi nyingine ya Kerry, Daschle na Howard Dean ambayo inataka kuona a more inclusive party not more of the same. And that's why Obama is key in this. he is bringing in the young and the independents. They are also concentrating on the 50 state strategy that looks more broadly at the elections then the 50 + 1% strategy ya akina Carville. Sasa kutokana na hiyo kuna split within the party, but it seems wale ambao walikuwa kwenye sidelines ni lazima waingilie and forces them to take sides. That's why it has taken some time for them to decide.
Kuhusu Obama being just another politician I disagree especially in the case of Reverend Wright because alimkingia kifua mara ya kwanza in the Philly speech, lakini Wright kutokana na past experience yake ali-overreact and made a fool of himself. Simlaumu huyu mzee maana I am sure he was lashing out in anger lakini what he did left no choice for Obama. Also I think Jeremiah Wright is too intelligent not to see that he left Obama no choice. Going to a press conference and to talk like that is unexcusable. Na hii ya kusema kwamba alimbeba Obama nakataa, it was Obama's achievement where he got in this race, maana angeweza kuwa another Jesse Jackson or Al Sharpton for that matter, but Obama has gotten very far in this election without Wright. If you are refering to Chicago, I must say, Obama did learn a lot of things from Wright and he has credited him time and again, but he does NOT owe him. Hizi ni fikra potofu kabisa, na ndo maana unakuta tunataka candidates stay 'loyal' hata kama tunajua kuna haja ya kukosoa. And BTW waumini wa Trinity church pia wamemtetea sana Obama na wamesema Wright crossed a line that he had never crossed before. They are disappointed. So kama hii ndo imekufanya ubadili mawazo I am sorry, but I think that at times you just need to have a little faith!
To show you that Obama is not another politician, take the example of the gas tax holiday that both Hillary and John are advocating, Barack called a spade a spade and said it does nothing to help the problem and is just pandering. ALL econoimsts have applauded him and said he made an unpopular choice but is right! Think brother, think!

 

[Susuviri]

I HAVE A FEELING HILLARY IS NOT GOING TO BE IN A GOOD MOOD TODAY!!!!!!

 

[YNIM]

SUV,
asante kwa nondo zako zilizotulia!! mie nimelazwa hospitali toka monday, lakini naendelea vizuri na inshallah labda baadae leo nitakuwa d/c'd home!!

FMES,
posts na analysis zako huko juu ni nzuri lakini gaps kibao!!SORRY....congress ipo kwa ujumla almost 50/50 btn Dems and GOP na partisan than ever, hivyo huwezi kusema kwamba approval rating yao ni ndogo kwasababu ya Dems pekeyao. bei za bidhaa zipo juu kwasababu ya bei ya mafuta na tena ni worldwide(angalia bei ya vyakula ilivyopanda, kuanzia Haiti mpaka Egypt) na sio leadership mbovu ya dems kwa congress, kama ni lawama basi WH ndio wa kulaumiwa!!.

tax holiday ya mafuta ni mfano mmoja wa jinsi gani WH, HRC na McCain wana-play politics za "feel good" kwa kuweka band-aid(temporary soln) ktk matatizo ambayo yanahitaji solns za kudumu!!

ishu ya wright ni difficult sana, sipo na BHO kwa asilimia 100 lakini kwa bahati mbaya hakuwa na choice, je itam-cost some votes?? maybe! did he do the right thing?? yes and no, bcoz the bar has been set too high for him and as a black man in america...wazungu wanaweza kutumia kitu yeyote to justify kwanini hawata-vote Obama, hivyo basi kuwaondolea hizo doubts na vijisababu basi watu kama wright wana belong kwenye uvungu wa bus!!.

No for gas tax holiday, ni kiboko yao na ina prove msemo wa TJ(thomas jefferson) kwamba, ".....matter of style you swim with the currents, but as a matter of principle you stand like a rock." Obama stood like a rock, while political opportunists like HRC and Makopo(makeni) wameogelea na mkondo...........toooooooooo bad!!

win or lose, it was a great political drama to watch!!!!! Go Obama!!

 

[Susuviri]

Pole sana YNIM!

This one's for you!

YES WE CAN! END THE DRAMA - VOTE FOR OBAMA

 

[Koba]

...its a good day indeed!

 

[JokaKuu]

..kile kitendo cha Obama kumficha Pastor Wright kwenye basement wakati anatangaza kugombea Uraisi inaonyesha dhahiri kwamba ni SIASA.

..vilevile kitendo cha Obama kumtosa Pastor wake kwasababu amezungumza kwenye press conference pia kinadhihirisha kwamba Obama is doing this for politics. kama Obama angekuwa anachukua uamuzi on principles basi angemtosa Pastor Wright muda mrefu hukohuko kwao Chicago.

..kabla ya hapo team Obama walijaribu kucheza na race card kwa kudai kwamba it was an "attack on the Black church."

..hivi kuna yeyote asiyeamini kwamba ugaidi unachochewa na siasa za nje za USA? ina maana Obama halijui hilo? mbona Mario Cuomo alitoa kauli kama hiyo?

..mimi nilifikiri Obama ataleta fikra mpya ktk siasa za mambo ya nje za marekani. jinsi muda unavyokwenda unagundua kwamba ndiyo walewaleee!!

..kuna kipindi alisema atazungumza na maadui wa USA. aliposikia kwamba Jimmy Carter anakwenda kuonana na Hamas akaanza kumpiga madongo.

..hivi mnategemea mtu anayeshauriwa na Ted Kennedy, Tom Daschel, Susan Rice, Anthony Lake, ataibadilisha Washington in any significant way?

..katika kura 85 kuhusu Iraq amepiga kura mara 84 sawasawa na Hillary Clinton. sasa mabadiliko gani anayoyazungumzia?