The Party and the Pickle: Understanding CCM's Vulnerability Towards General Elections 2015

[yero]

Under the current conditions CCM will never lose the election.

What conditions? because we are seeing how everything has been/is unfolding right in front of us, and I believe CCM will lose the election.

 

[Nyani Ngabu]

What conditions? because we are seeing how everything has been/is unfolding right in front of us, and I believe CCM will lose the election.

Who's going to run the election?

 

[Shalom]

Mark my words!

They did not get 75% of the votes in the local elections rather they use money and power to run unopposed in many areas and still numbers does not add up to 75%. Till today Ministry for Local government have not come out with official numbers and percentage - almost a year, think for your self!

The other election which we do not have number is ..................... 2010 presidential election.

 

[yero]

Mzee Mwanakijiji, this is proper analysis and I think I share with you most of the views you have articulated

Jack Daniel's you have touched on almost everything I wanted to say....

 

[Shalom]

Who's going to run the election?

This election will be run not by NEC nor CCM nor UKAWA but people themselves. enough is enough

 

[LUS0MYA]

Questions CCM should weigh the candidate before nomination;
1. If the candidate is not nominated by CCM can he/she be received and accepted by opposition?
2. Is the candidate working performance excellent?and thus is popular within the people due to working performance.
3. Is the candidate a moderate politician?a person which can attract a large population of people who do not align to any party.(Politicians forms 0nly 40% of eligigible voters)
4. Is the candidate tested in various public posts and work excellently
5. Is the candidate decisions based on standing laws and not political solutions?

 

[Mjenda Chilo]

That if they opt Lowasa they wil loose election???? thats very wrong! Lowasa holds suppoert outside the party. People are just tooo tired n things are not moving we dont want a guru but simply a pusher

 

[chamakh]

That if they opt Lowasa they wil loose election???? thats very wrong! Lowasa holds suppoert outside the party. People are just tooo tired n things are not moving we dont want a guru but simply a pusher

Good for you on observing that!!!
Mwanakijiji is highly biased!!

In options 1-3, according to MMM Lowassa can't win within CCM if he is nominated by his party!!!

Option 1, within CCM he will lose election
Option 2, out of CCM and he wins
Option 3, out of CCM and loses
However, deliberately MMM does not provide scenario that
Option 4, within CCM and wins so as to balance his scenarios!!! He carefully and deliberately decided to misrepesent his scenarios only in favour of his ambitions!!! We know you bother.....

Biased presentation will always lead to biased judgement, however, be informed that it is just few hours and we will see either the end of this series or beginning of another season, either case order more popcorns!!!!

 

[TEKNOLOJIA]

As i saw in the Local elections, CCM got 75% of the votes, which means they have a solid enough base, as much as i like CCM to be replaced,i am not naive to think UKAWA/CDM or any opposition will actually win the general election. Kama unabisha waambie CDM wampendekeze Slaa, bila clause ya kulipwa mshahara wa Mbunge akishindwa kama atakubali.

Yeah I agree with you that CCM might win the election as Jack Daniel's reasoned.

 

[Kimweri]

A lot of us know you don't like CCM to be replaced.

A lot of us are not naive either to think CCM will lose the general election

Dr. Slaa is the strongest candidate the opposition have...watu mna maslahi na CCM halafu mnajidai mnapenda mabadiliko

I really don't care what YOU think about me, especially when you start assuming about what i think,what i do, what i have. What next? typing my comments for me as well?

A bit too stup*d and naive for my cup of tea.

Get off my lawn and get back to discuss the motion in hand please.

 

[Kimweri]

Good for you on observing that!!!
Mwanakijiji is highly biased!!

In options 1-3, according to MMM Lowassa can't win within CCM if he is nominated by his party!!!

Option 1, within CCM he will lose election
Option 2, out of CCM and he wins
Option 3, out of CCM and loses
However, deliberately MMM does not provide scenario that
Option 4, within CCM and wins so as to balance his scenarios!!! He carefully and deliberately decided to misrepesent his scenarios only in favour of his ambitions!!! We know you bother.....

Biased presentation will always lead to biased judgement, however, be informed that it is just few hours and we will see either the end of this series or beginning of another season, either case order more popcorns!!!!

I agree, on waiting slightly more on Lowasa's fate. Time left is rather short.

However, majority of his analysis was very close to the real situation. You can not sumup the entire analysis based on one section of it. And trying to satisfy everyone is the fastest way to messing up any situation.

 

[RockSpider]

MMM ningeshangaa sana kama bandiko lake lisingejikita kwa Lowassa ... Huna jipya babu ....

 

[Ronal Reagan]

Excellent, timely and valid article. Once again kudos MMM!

My general opinion, randomly put, in the context of the "other unmentioned factors" CCM usually/still relied on are:-

1) Bribes/rushwa "weapon" - here politicians leads and joined by the masses in the mess.

2) Ignorance "weapon" - this has been an unwritten but secret weapon which was created by CCM for its selfish end.

3) Siege mentality "weapon" - especially by TISS and some media outlets, which would work 24/7 to always created a loophole/crack for their known "final" maneuvers. It's here the application of goli la mkono/kuotea really emanates. Here the majority of good citizens will be bombarded and suffocated with more than their fair share from hell.

4) Divisiveness "weapon" - which could well shake the very foundation of this land and her future peaceful existence would be ushered. Its direct results are fear, intimidation, manipulation and unrest.

It's a deliberate and tactic process. First during the campaigns CCM and proxies will try to divide (dangerously) the nation through religion, tribal, sex and the related classes. If they're successful and generate enough spurs it could blaze up the ranks and rocks of this nation, but it's progressive process remember. In the end it could, significantly, have a say in election itself, whereby a considerable voters bloc could be "eliminated" or been put on passivity mode.
Who knows what? we could see one or two assassinations...........but time will tell.

Finally, as a little peasant I'm aware of an inside trend there which suggests to something like "anything except loosing the presidency". Anything is inclusive of you, me and the nation as a bait.

It requires wisdom, courage and intelligence of some quality order (which has been desperately lacking) by CCM to meet its appointed end, meanwhile at same time for Tanzania to remain a united and viable country under a new direction/leadership/government......yet again, time will tell.

 

[Panizo]

l am praying harder to God.... so that in Tanzania we should change our political direction. once in lifetime the ruling party is very disjointed and there is internal conflicts within it.like the composer for sake of it CCM must rest in peace.it needs radical changes and new perspective.....

 

[Ulukolokwitanga]

I know CCM from its grassroots, subjectivity is all over the place. With exceptional to CC, NEC members will elect three candidates based on nepotism, corruption and promise to continue receiving national cake during the next five years. This is Lowassa playing ground, he possesses that charisma and has money to run the show. Forget about Makongoro and Ramadhan, nobody will back then since nobody is sure of what material benefits will get from them.

 

[Mzee Mwanakijiji]

MMM ningeshangaa sana kama bandiko lake lisingejikita kwa Lowassa ... Huna jipya babu ....

Lowassa is the enigma and prpobably will determine the fate of the ruling party.

 

[mzamifu]

The drama is not in whether he gets the nomination or not. But what he does if he does not.

Mzee Mwanakijiji I always read your posts with keen interest. Your analysis here is credible. And I may conclude that "CCM is Entangled in an embarrassing predicament". this has resulted from the seed of its own destruction.

 

[Ronal Reagan]

Mwandosya and Makongoro are important for CCM because of the massive voter base they command.While Ramadhani, is important for the outward picture that CCM want's to portray, although with careful Opposition, this picture could backfire.since a carefully calibrated opposition message that his party affiliation was blurry during his tenure as CJ could cause some damage

. BUT you do realize you are on the winning side, when the only negative thing about your candidate is an assumption of association.

It is closer to reality view-side granted there are no "aftermaths" whatsoever by the losers in their process. The irony is it's pretty unlikely, but otherwise your argument can hold water.

 

[RockSpider]

The fateof the ruling party CCM will be determining by multiple factors but not limitedto strength of the UKAWA, Vyombo vya Dola Police, TISS, TPDF, Judiciary Systemsand National Electro Commission NEC among others … Ndo Maana wanajiita ChamaDola!!!!
[QUOTE=Mzee Mwanakijiji;13238413]Lowassa is the enigma and prpobably will determine the fate of the ruling party.[/QUOTE]

 

[JokaKuu]

..what we r observing now seems like a repeat of ccm presidential primaries of 1995.

..lowassa was "unfairly" removed from ccm's nomination process and the party had a very difficult presidential campaign.

..it was Mwalimu Nyerere's intervention in the campaigns that helped Ccm manage about 60+ % of the votes.

..now fast forward to 2015. Baba wa Taifa hayuko. Ukawa wana uzoefu kuliko NCCR ya 95. Dr.Slaa/ prof.Lipumba r just as seasoned as anyone Ccm will nominate.

..suppose Ccm wanamchinja tena Lowassa, projections za ushindi wa Ccm ni asilimia ngapi ya kura??

Kimweri, Mzee Mwanakijiji, Ronal Reagan, yero, Mag3, Pasco