The Party and the Pickle: Understanding CCM's Vulnerability Towards General Elections 2015

[Mag3]

It speaks volume of Makongoro if his name is hi biggest downfall.

At the time when CCM has cornered itself, finding a leader who is good in economics or whatever that the country might need, might not be so wise after all.
If Lowassa and his puppets were not so greedy, 2015 would have a different setup, but we have to deal with what we have at hand, not hypothetical. CCM is almost broken, and Makongoro is about the only candidate that is sincere,seems to know what is the problem within his party and looks like will be decisive. This is exactly what CCM needs. CCM already has a lot of technocrats who can be told what to do and do it. what it lacks is a leader, who can actually tell this technocrats the correct thing to do. And Makongoro by virtual of superior Upbringing and DNA seems to be the perfect match.

Ramadhani won't do much in a way of dramatics, but at least you will be sure, IKULU will be a respectable place and uswahili we have become so accustomed with in the way of our dealings will be kicked out. You don't get to become CJ, Brigadier General and pastor if your moral compas is remotely broken. As mwanakijiji said, Ramadhani simply is one remarkable Man, should he be selected or not. What he has achieved in one lifetime, many great men would struggle to achieve in 3 lifetimes.

Is there life outside CCM, yes ofcourse there is, but sensing the political landscapes, Tanzanians are as lazy when it come to change as lazy gets.

Oh now come on Kimweri, not again! Fool me once, shame on you but fool me twice, shame on me. CCM has fooled us not once, not twice but three times yet here we are, willing and ready to be fooled again for the fourth time! Our gods must be crazy. Do you remember gentleman Mwinyi with his mfagio wa chuma? Well, he swept all that dirt from outside and brought it close...to the white house. Then came Mr Clean with his uwajibikaji! Yeah, if the man couldn't do business at Ikulu, he made sure business came to him though he tried to keep it an arm's length away. Finally entered Mr. handsome with nguvu mpya, ari mpya and kasi mpya and all hell broke loose...mpya was replaced with zaidi and you know the rest, we are back to square one dancing to the same old tune. Makongoro, who's Makongoro?

 

[Kimweri]

Oh now come on Kimweri, not again! Fool me once, shame on you but fool me twice, shame on me. CCM has fooled us not once, not twice but three times yet here we are, willing and ready to be fooled again for the fourth time! Our gods must be crazy. Do you remember gentleman Mwinyi with his mfagio wa chuma? Well, he swept all that dirt from outside and brought it close...to the white house. Then came Mr Clean with his uwajibikaji! Yeah, if the man couldn't do business at Ikulu, he made sure business came to him though he tried to keep it an arm's length away. Finally entered Mr. handsome with nguvu mpya, ari mpya and kasi mpya and all hell broke loose...mpya was replaced with zaidi and you know the rest, we are back to square one dancing to the same old tune. Makongoro, who's Makongoro?

Makongoro is sadly an old news as of recent development. Kwa jinsi JK anavyojiamini kawaletea Mvinyo wa jana kwenye Chupa ya JUZI.

Ukawa msipopata hata asilimia 45 ya kura mwaka huu inabidi tuwape suspension ya kushiriki kwenye siasa, mnatumalizia kodi zetu kupitia ruzuku bure tu.

 

[Mag3]

Let's start by making sure we are on the same page. One, am not UKAWA though I am rooting for change. Two, talking of elections, in the 2010 elections there were about 20,000,000 registered voters but those who we are told cast their votes were not only less than 50%, they were less than those who voted in the 1995 elections! Kikwete was declared the winner by getting less than 60% of votes claimed cast which was less than 25% of registered voters. Come 2015, the then chairman of the Electoral Commission is no more and his assistant is now vying for the presidency! Think about it.

 

[Mzee Mwanakijiji]

Mmmh! Judge Augustino Ramadhani...How I wish, at one time, he hadn't been the Vice-Chairman of the National Electoral Commission under Judge Lewis Makame! How I wish, at one time, he hadn't been the Vice-Chairman of the Constitutional Review Commission under Judge Joseph Sinde Warioba! What bothers me most about him is that his presence in these two organs was never felt, it was just as if he wasn't there!

Macko...Because of the name he is a contender but without the name, nobody would even bother talking about him. I doubt if he would even have dared to pick a form!

Lowassa...He has the money and the influence (within his party). Unfortunately he is what he is and because of that some of us have hope...hope that he drags his party to where both deservedly belong, in the gutter.

Come on guys, there is life outside this den of hungry hyenas...let us get out of and get some fresh air and sunshine.

Right on! There is out there a sense that sometida is happening within CCM like a setting of a noose on their own necks... it keeps tightening.

 

[TEKNOLOJIA]

Top 5 are Bernard Membe,Asha Migiro,Amina Salum Ali,January Makamba and John Magufuli.Even a fool could tell you who's the select among the bunch?It's either Membe or Migiro.The outgoing President is about to seal the demise of CCM party,sooner than we thought.

 

[aaamuk]

Let them go...enough is enough

 

[mak89]

The CC should have omitted Membe's name as well to be fair if they really wanted to ship off gamba. Sadly Ramadhan was used to justify their deeds he had no influence in political area. What mad him to be among aspirants at preliminary level was his origin and religion.

 

[yero]

..what we r observing now seems like a repeat of ccm presidential primaries of 1995.

..lowassa was "unfairly" removed from ccm's nomination process and the party had a very difficult presidential campaign.

..it was Mwalimu Nyerere's intervention in the campaigns that helped Ccm manage about 60+ % of the votes.

..now fast forward to 2015. Baba wa Taifa hayuko. Ukawa wana uzoefu kuliko NCCR ya 95. Dr.Slaa/ prof.Lipumba r just as seasoned as anyone Ccm will nominate.

..suppose Ccm wanamchinja tena Lowassa, projections za ushindi wa Ccm ni asilimia ngapi ya kura??

Kimweri, Mzee Mwanakijiji, Ronal Reagan, yero, Mag3, Pasco

I think the ultimate projection of CCM's percentage in this year's election depends on the candidate CCM will nominate as the flagbearer..his/her weakness will be UKAWA's strength..

I also think it depends on the unity of the CCM party itself ahead of the election..there are obvious indications of a possible split of CCM..that will work in favour of UKAWA and reduce their percentage greatly..

But all in all, whether we will have a fair and free election is still unknown...whether or not UKAWA will count all their votes and possibly tally with the NEC's numbers...also whether NEC will announce the real results...

 

[Kimweri]

So,CCM will.lose elections?maanawamechagua poison pill(option 3) as per mwanakijiji.

 

[charty]

CCM steeped their own grave this time...only our vote will decide October!!! vote for UKAWA

 

[danimutta]

A well thought article Mwanakijiji - Congratulations! While i do to a great extent agree with your analysis, i have reservations about your conclusions regarding the fate (doomed) of CCM and its impact on our nation's political and socioeconomic dispensation. First of all the opposition in Tanzania is neither strong nor united to capitalise on fallout from CCM's mishaps to take the reigns of the Country's leadership. The opposition needs to formulate and demonstrate credible strategies based on CCM's apparently emerging weaknesses (disunity, mismanagement of our economy, corruption etc) and exploit opportunities. Right now our opposition's approach is more activist and reactive.
Finally, the nation now has an opportunity to write a new Constitution which will once and for all get rid of the "imperial presidency" and enshrine checks and balances by creating strong and independent institutions for good governance. That way we should achieve sustainable social economic development and peace.
's

 

[MTK]

WOW!

That coming from a CDM supporter who miraculously called out ZITTO for having different ideas. just WOW. I actually despise CDM for following in all CCM mistakes and when they get called out, they be like CCM is doing that as well!Jeez.., IF CCM is bad and does bad things, why would a common mwananchi replace it for another party that does same old junk?

CDM is not surging ahead, stop delludng yourself. Everyone in Tanzania now knows exactly what has to happen for CCM to get their nominee. They know about almost all aspirants message,rhetoric and ideas. YET NO ONE knows anything about CDM aspirants,or UKAWA aspirants. NO ones even knows the process, it's all blanketed in we will have a new nominee by a certain date, just like that. THIS is not USSR. CDM is supposed to be a democratic party. Yet it's getting schooled by an old used to be socialist party how to be democratic, transparent and how to build momentum and PR around them. IF one is told to pick which party is from 1970 without being told the names, that will certainly be CDM.

It's 2015, yet CDM's best ideas come from what CCM will do next.i feel angry when i observe the state of opposition in Tanzania. we once had a vibrant opposition, now we have jobless folks looking for their next gigs.

Angry, Angry Angry indeed!! is that your best strategy going forward?! you are just sitting on the fence waiting to jump on the band wagon; to reap where you did not sow?! shame be upon you dude!?! Critisising is the easiest part of the struggle; and every tom, dick and harry can do just that! If you think something is not going right somewhere and you are man enough! get up; stand up and be counted; raise your voice, take action! you either join the VUGUVUGU; or start your own struggle in a manner that you deem is right and dump CDM! you either put up or shut up, Period

 

[Kimweri]

Angry, Angry Angry indeed!! is that your best strategy going forward?! you are just sitting on the fence waiting to jump on the band wagon; to reap where you did not sow?! shame be upon you dude!?! Critisising is the easiest part of the struggle; and every tom, dick and harry can do just that! If you think something is not going right somewhere and you are man enough! get up; stand up and be counted; raise your voice, take action! you either join the VUGUVUGU; or start your own struggle in a manner that you deem is right and dump CDM! you either put up or shut up, Period

NO, you don't get to chose what i DO. no one ever will. It's my life, i choose how to live it, unless you plan on joining me in the grave. If not, leave me alone and focus on the issues at hand.

CDM is a mess that needs fixing,Hiding in the sand will not fix CDM. We have repeatedly told CDM what to do but they end up messing things up.

You ask me to shut up, yet your unofficial policy is waiting for CCM to mess up so you make a mountain out of a mole!It won't be that easy.

present Workable policies, walk the talk, then you will see some of us making less and less criticism. That's the only way to shut me up.DO the damn right thing.

 

[Prof Griff]

It would be very interesting to hear what all y'all self-appointed political commentators and mavens have to say after the events of today.

Keep them (mostly dubious albeit entertaining) assumptions, presumptions, approximations, perceptions, extrapolations and whatnot, flowing fellas!

 

[SMU]

Alas!

1. SCENARIO 5: CCM puts Anybody But Our Three Characters

If by the end of the screening and nomination the name picked will be anybody of the other 35 aspirants beside our three characters CCM will lose the election easily. I do not see any of the other candidates beating the opposition with the fractured ruling party. Unless of course, something real damaging happens to the opposition candidate before or close to the Election Day then the opposition will lose.

Very interesting!

 

[Kibanga Ampiga Mkoloni]

tumetoka mbali san!

 

[Mzee Mwanakijiji]

Kosa kubwa ambalo nilifanya kwenye makala hii ni kutokudhania inawezekana Lowassa angeenda CHADEMA. That one I didn't see coming. Binafsi (and some others I suppose) niliona uchaguzi ule ungekuwa ni wa pande tatu.. CCM, Lowassa na Slaa..