Mzee Mwanakijiji
Platinum Member
- Mar 10, 2006
- 34,210
- 44,280
THE PARTY AND THE PICKLE
UNDERSTANDING THE VULNERABILITY OF TANZANIA'S RULING PARTY (CCM)
TOWARDS GENERAL ELECTIONS 2015
(CCM's Central Committee meeting at the State House - file picture)
UNDERSTANDING THE VULNERABILITY OF TANZANIA'S RULING PARTY (CCM)
TOWARDS GENERAL ELECTIONS 2015
(CCM's Central Committee meeting at the State House - file picture)
Tanzanians are witnessing a systematic, catastrophic and chaotic collapse of Tanzania's ruling party electoral mechanisms. Over forty members of the Revolutionary Party (Chama Cha Mapinduzi-CCM) have so far declared their intentions to run for the highest office in the land – the Presidency. The aspirants have come up with all kinds of promises; some promising the flow of milk and honey in the new Bongo Paradise they are going to build if either one were to be elected the President of Tanzania. We have seen believers or so they appear to be of these promises of hope to the hopeless that have flocked en masse to these aspirants.
In my unsolicited and indeed humble opinion I believe the cacophony of these declarations signals nothing else but a clear and precise vulnerability of CCM come the General Elections day on October 25[SUP]th[/SUP] this year. In order to understand this colossal vulnerability of Tanzania's oldest and only ruling party since Independence we need to look at some of the factors that have so far contributed to what I consider to be a consequential historical vulnerability of the party towards General Elections. Some –including myself - would say a welcome vulnerability indeed.
There is the Party...
A TRIADIC COLLAPSE
The first three of these factors are all related to the party machinery itself. I would explain each.
The Collapse of Processes and Procedures:
Since its inception Tanzania's ruling party has been known for its meticulous adherence to laid out constitutional procedures and formalities. Many of these were needed to bring order after the unification of Afro-Shiraz Part (ASP) the then ruling party of semi-autonomous region of Zanzibar with Tanganyika African National Union (TANU) the ruling party on the Mainland-Tanganyika. Of the party" These processes cemented what was to be known as Chama kushika hatamu loosely translated as the supremacy of the party. CCM as a young socialist party created structures that are fundamentally similar or resemble those existing in communist countries like China, North Korea, Cuba and Vietnam where the party controlled all elements of the state and controlled major economic activities.
These structures and the processes emanating from them ensured that the party morphed into the most powerful institution in the country. Some of these structures had had appeared in Tanganyika after the country became a one-party state in mid 1960s. The party controlled anything and everything that had to do with the State; from the Military to Police, Science to Sports and everything in between. With the advent of the Arusha Declaration in 1967 the Party's control of the country was finalized. This meant that for a person to become a leader in the country one had to be a product or part of the political system.
There were rules and regulations, admonitions and directives that were put in place to ensure that for any position certain processes had to be followed to the letter from the Ten Cell Units (Nyumba Kumi Kumi) –the lowest party structure – up to the National Congress (Mkutano Mkuu) which was and still remains to be the highest organ of CCM. The party members who wanted to vie for any position had to go through a rigorous and comprehensive process to ensure that a person once elected is worthy the position he/she aspired to. There was no room for manipulating the process for the consequences for such attempts were reckoning, dire and lasting.
We are witnessing how these processes have been negated for some political expediency by the ruling party. Even when the party tried to admonish its members to adhere to the processes the consequences for ignoring such admonitions have shown to be regrettably, non-existent. Ultimately, the party had to tolerate or ignored members who ignored party directives signaling the intrinsic weakness within the party machinery. Even when the party acted it did so only as a token of being in the know.
The Collapse of Ideas and Ideology:
Technically, CCM is still a sociality party. At least according to Article 5 of CCM's constitution the party identifies itself and its mission as socialist one. While the word "socialist" connotes some elements or Leftist Marxist-Leninist communist ideology the word as used in Tanzanian context refers to what is known as "African Socialism" or as popularly known – Ujamaa. This African Socialism is fundamentally a product of intellectual creation of Tanzania's Founding Father Mwalimu Julius Nyerere. As such it is well defined and documented in several party's writings and documents. Nyerere's Ujamaa is not a carbon copy of Marxist-Leninist ideology as some Western scholars in 1960s and 70s asserted.
In the past twenty or so years Tanzania has moved from its socialist past to a young capitalist nation. Capitalism or "market economy" as it is euphemistically sold to the Tanzanian masses by CCM has created what Nyerere half a century ago so poignantly predicted; a class society. These classes of those who have – The Haves- and those who don't – The Have Nots – are well established and defined. The "workers and farmers" of yesteryears do no longer have front seats at the table of power; they have been replaced by corporate CEOs and businessmen who enjoy unparalleled and unchecked access to political leaders in government and in the ruling party. Tanzania is –some would argue already has – becoming a capitalist nation per excellence.
The ordinary citizen is left outside the corridors of power; his influence weaned and his position mediocre at best. Like in colonial times the regular Joe or Jane is left at the mercies of the rulers. The opposition parties have found their footing in this regard. A number of the opposition parties even those once aligned with capitalist ideology have now moved toward socialism and have become extremely populist in their messages. This discordance – what CCM once was and what it has morphed into now – has left the party in a state of political limbo; its vision blurred and its members confused.
We are waiting to see if its Election Platform this year tries to bring the party back to its socialist roots or will continue its departure from socialism all together.
The Collapse of Leadership:
Of all the factors within CCM that have – in my humble opinion (still unsolicited)– contributed immensely to the vulnerability of the ruling party toward this upcoming General Elections nothing is more consequential than the perceived collapse of internal party leadership. In its socialist past CCM had strong and decisive leadership at least during Mwalimu Nyerere's 27 years reign. Of course this strength was born out of necessity for the party controlled all affairs of the State. In order to have such unchallenged control the party had to exert some certain and pointed powers against any enemy of the state – real or imaginary.
Unfortunately, in over twenty years now the party internal powers have been challenged and weakened several times and the response each time has been in many cases callous if not timid. A good example of this is when the party came with what was known as "Operesheni Vua Gamba" that is "Operation Shedding the Skin". It was promoted at the time as a moment for the party to reinvent itself after massing a number of high profile scandals over some odd years.
Kikwete – the President and Chairman of the ruling party – is the one who announced the operation and it was received with some sense of jubilation by party members around the country some even organizing rallies to support the operation in upcountry. The country waited to see this molting; this reinvention of the party; nothing happened. The persons named in a number of scandals continued to be members of parliament and some continued with their high profile positions within the government. The recent acquittals or lighter sentences of some people implicated in a number of scandals have shown how hard is to deal with corrupt high level officials in the country – especially those close to the ruling party.
In short, the party failed miserably to clean its own mess and it seems the voters are willing and ready to punish it as we have seen during last year's Local governments' election. Under Kikwete's leadership CCM has been at its weakest point yet.
Those three make up what I have so far referred as internal factors that have created an atmosphere for CCM's vulnerability in the upcoming General Elections in October. There are however, still some more other consequential factors –some directly related to the triadic factors above - which in their own rights pose a clear and present threat to the success of the ruling party in the coming elections. The first group of these includes individuals whose candidacies deserve special attention. The other group I would call the other ‘extracurricular activities' of the System. I will explain both.
The candidates' Big Dance
One only wishes to be the proverbial fly on the wall when the following three names are brought for discussion during the party's screening of the various aspirants beginning today. These are Edward Lowassa, Augustino Ramadhani and Charles Makongoro Nyerere. Let's look at each of these characters.
The Enigma that is Lowassa:
Of all the potential and somewhat viable candidates who have returned their nominations forms through CCM none has created an enigmatic challenge to the party than the former Prime Minister and MP for Monduli Edward Lowassa. His fall from grace following the Richmond Scandal in 2008 was not the end of his political career. He has bounced back with a vengeance; and bounce back he has. He has challenged the party and the government to stop him for any reason or for no reason and as I have noted above the party mechanisms have failed miserably. Now he stands on the verge of his nomination, tainted but not counted out; bruised but not defeated. If he were to be nominated Lowassa will be a comeback kid indeed.
Unfortunately, his leadership style, his skills as a politician, and his own mantra as a person have all made him a friend to some and an enemy to others. There are those who believe that if he were to be nominated there would be some lasting ramification within the party (possible splitting). But some people believe the country needs someone like Lowassa to lead. Lowassa is perceived by some as a decisive and micro manager leader. But if his name were to be dropped early on – even before the General Congress – then Lowassa will surely be faced with another hurdle to overcome. Will he support the party's nominee, will he resign all his party positions and politics all together like his friend Rostam Aziz did few years back?
For CCM Lowassa present not the proverbial ‘the rock and the hard place' kind of a choice but rather a more scathing and damning choice; the choice between falling on a sword or a spearhead. Whatever CCM chooses there would be some lasting consequences for the party itself more than anywhere else.
Enter Mako - The True Heir?
The other character that has changed the outlook of CCM's nomination process and in fact the trajectory of election politics this year is the son of the Founding Father Mwalimu Julius K. Nyerere. This is no other than Charles Makongoro Nyerere, the Member of East African Community Parliament and a CCM leader in his home Mara Region.
Makongoro did not inherit his father's unique speaking voice. But, he had an unquestionably inherited Nyerere's wit, mannerism, charm and swagger. Even more, Mako – as he is popularly known – he has infectious eloquence with words like his father. With these tools Makongoro has shaken up the frontline of the race to the nomination. His boldness to viciously and unapologetically attack some of the candidates whom he considers to be corrupt was received by the general public as a breath of fresh air. He did not mince words or spare colorful play with words when describing these individuals. He positioned himself as a person fighting for the renewal or reform of the party.
While the other candidates were in the business of shelling out promises of what they would do when given the nomination Makongoro was the sole candidate who was in the business of fighting for his party's life. He positioned himself as a person who understood the malice that have infiltrated the party and has caused enduring damages within the party as well as within the government it leads. His motto – to corrupt elements within the party - during this stage has been "Tuachiane Chama Chetu" literally "Give Us Back Our Party".
How would the party react to Makongoro who seems to be very popular to regular party members and even general public? Would he survive the initial round of screening? What if the party chooses one of the individuals marked by Makongoro as corrupt would he support that individual? Will he defect again to the opposition as he did when he defected to NCCR-Mageuzi in 1995? Would he try to lead a splinter group of similar minded CCM members like Uhuru Kenyatta did with KANU? Even if he is not nominated Makongoro is seen as being prepared for some more responsibility in the future especially if the nomination goes to our third character.
The General, the Priest, and the Judge: Enter Augustino Ramadhani
Of all the candidates who have shown put their names for nomination through CCM none has a more embellished and decorated career than Justice Augustino Ramadhani. As a matter of fact I do not know of any Tanzania who has achieved professionally what Ramadhani has done. A lawyer by training he served in the military –as Advocate - until he was honorably discharged in 1996 with the rank of Brigadier General. Over a period of time he had been the Chief Justice of Zanzibar during Aboud Jumbe's presidency, Justice of the Court of Appeal and later as the Chief Justice of Tanzania. He was later trained in Theology within the Anglican Communion which led to his ordination as a Priest just a year or so ago. He has also served most recently as the President of the African Court on Human and Peoples' Rights. However, all these years Ramadhani was not known to be political for much of his career. He hid his allegiance rather well.
However, rumors of his interest (or interests of some of his closest friends) in politics started about two years ago. Opposition Chief Whip Tundu Lissu mentioned it in parliament months ago accusing the ruling party that it was lining up Ramadhani for the presidency something that he asserted was unconstitutional and dangerous. Some of us did not take those seriously enough simply because we could not fathom an idea that a person of his caliber who has had a career as being impartial public servant could one day declare his partiality by aligning himself with the ruling party.
His candidacy has left many unanswered questions. Among them is whether there is a conceivable possibility that the judiciary is filled with many individuals whose allegiance remain to the ruling party since one of its own – former Chief Justice – has shown his green and yellow colors just four years since he left office. This is because many of the individuals who have ascended to High Court or Court of Appeals are known to have been friends – some very close – of the President who appoints them. The current Leadership Code for public servants is not strong enough to sanction former judges, high ranked police and military leaders from serving in politics few years after they leave office. Many have been appointed to a number of ambassadorial portfolios and other offices.
Those questions aside, there is no doubt whatsoever that Justice Ramadhani is the man to beat within the ruling party in three or four days to come. His name has to be on top of all other candidates for it presents at least a perceived image of a man with integrity, honesty and dedication to public service. Whether that image will remain if he were to win the election in few months only history will be the better judge of that.
Those are some of the factors happening within the party that I believe have put the party return to power in jeopardy this election season. However, there are some "extra-curricular" activities of the famed "System". These are those factors outside the ruling party but still tied to it that will ultimately be the undoing of the ruling party from power. Among them:
The BVR Debacle: The Incompetence of the Electoral Commission
I'm convinced that this year the Tanzania's Electoral Commission will show its usher incompetence come elections day October 25[SUP]th[/SUP], 2015. We have seen the sign of this in the run up to the election especially in how it has organized, managed and is still carrying the Biometrics Voter Registration process. The use of BVR in Africa has been chaotic and corruption ridden. This has shown to be true in several countries such as Kenya, Ghana, Somalia and mostly in Nigeria where due to some technical issues BVR system failed resulting to voting extension in a number of states in Nigeria. The President at the time Goodluck Jonathan had to wait in line for almost an hour to be verified as an illegible voter.
In Tanzania, the BVR debacle started even before the first person was registered to vote. It was poorly tendered from the offset, under budgeted and mismanaged at the very core. Even when the process started it could not run as smoothly as promised by the National Election Commission (NEC). There have been delays, postponements and unexplainable stoppage of registering voters. All these have happened before the day of the election. It is easily foreseeable that on the day of the election things could get not just chaotic but extremely and dangerously chaotic. How would NEC ensure that BVR will be used all over the country, live, and in every polling station for almost twelve hours all over the country? In a country still struggling from power shortages and lack of power in most part of the country how would NEC ensure all the computers are fully charged in every polling station of the country?
The chances for the delay or extension of voting day are very probable if not assured. This will have dire consequences especially if they happen in opposition strongholds where people have already claimed there were systematic attempts to under register voters through BVR during the registration exercise. NEC is facing an uphill battle to ensure that the election will be free, fair and credible. So far this credibility of the registration process is being questioned already. One can only speculate on the credibility of the voting, tallying and announcements of results on the D-Day.
The Challenge to NEC's Monopoly in Announcing Presidential Results:
This year the National Electoral Commission will be faced with a challenge of its monopoly in announcing presidential votes. According to Tanzania's law and Constitution only NEC has the authority to declare Presidential winner. However, according to the same laws all presidential votes are announced at each constituency prior to the announcement of Member of Parliament of that particular area. For this reason, if one had the means and the will to collect these results from constituencies then one could in all theoretical purposes be able to know who is winning the presidential votes even before NEC's own tallying.
How then, could NEC stop Tanzania news outlets, social media, and political parties from tallying their own votes from around the country? In Nigeria this year Gen. Bukhari was declared the winner by local and international news stations after votes collected by them showed he was way ahead of his Opponent the incumbent Goodluck Jonathan. Jonathan was forced by reality and circumstances to concede rather than try to manipulate the system.
The Allegiance of Security of Forces Will Be Questioned:
As I have shown before, during the One Party Rule the military as well as the judiciary were all aligned and under the control of the ruling party. All the security officials from top to bottom were required to be members of the ruling party. As a matter of fact there were smooth movements of appointments or transfers from the military to the civilian positions throughout the country like what happened with Gen. Augustino Ramadhani in his career as noted above.
This legacy continues even today in Tanzania. The question that will be tested this coming election is whether our security forces are mature enough to live politics to politicians or they will continue to interfere to intimidate the public as they have done so in numerous occasion before to the advantage of CCM? What will happen when the realization sets in that the ruling party is about to fall from power like a shooting star? Will they come in to the rescue or they will stand by to salute whoever the people elect?
I believe in this area the legacy of President Jakaya Kikwete will be judged by history. Will he order the use of force against unarmed citizens who will choose to stand on guard against the attempt by the system to manipulate votes or voting results? Would he be willing to sacrifice how many Tanzanians to ensure that his party remains in power? Again, time will be the better judge.
And Here is The Pickle…
The confluence of all these factors and others not dealt here bring us to a very simple but reasonable conclusion; CCM's precarious rule over Tanzania is coming to an end, soon. CCM has put itself in the past decade in a position of vulnerability never expected for a seasoned party like itself. As the party is beginning the nomination process of its presidential candidate a number of scenarios exist that shows us how the party has become vulnerable and will predictably lose the presidential votes this year. These scenarios are based on a number of choices the ruling party will make as it picks its candidate in Dodoma.
- SCENARIO 1: The Party Choose Edward Lowassa as Its Candidate
In this scenario the party will lose the election. If Lowassa were to be picked as candidate there will be individuals within the party –leaders or otherwise - who will not vote for him or even campaign for him due to his ties to corruption scandals. There is a possibility of the rising of a splinter group opposed to such selection. Kikwete won 2010 election by only over five million votes. This was way below his massive victory in 2005 where he won the seat by over nine million votes. In five years he had lost the support of over four million voters and he was a popular figure. How would Lowassa fare against that with a party divided as CCM counts on its seven million or so members as its main voter base?
If the opposition were to put Dr. Slaa - a person who gained over two million votes in 2010 as its Presidential contender – what would a divided CCM do to defeat such a popular and charismatic leader? Slaa then under a united opposition front only needs to gain about two more million votes to pose an existential threat to CCM's rule. My other scenarios are all based on the assumption that Dr. Slaa will be the possible candidate for the united Tanzania's opposition.
- SCENARIO 2: Edward Lowassa is Left of the Presidential Race
In this scenario CCM might have a chance depending on what does next. If he were to remain within the party and gracefully support the party's nominee then CCM will be a real threat against opposition's attempt to dislodge it from power. However, this will be highly unlikely for Lowassa and his supporters have invested in so much in money, resources and emotions. He backed down after he resigned and was withdrawn for some time; that will not be the likely choice this time. Lowassa is expected might choose to do or die attempt under an opposition party. With him a number of CCM's MP are expected to put their lot with him. If this happen then there will still be another splinter group from the ruling party. His massive collection of supporters in the past few years was an attempt to show his support around the country and judging by the pictures support he has!
Will all these (almost a million people) and others who did not have opportunities to support him (especially non CCM members) follow him as their leader to push him to the State House probably under the auspice of a new or unknown party? Will he able to gain over four or five million votes he needs to win? If he were to do this then CCM still loses power and a new Party under Lowassa will have the State house.
- SCENARIO 3: Lowassa Leaves and Splits the Party; And He Loses the Election
If Lowassa were to leave with a splinter group which splits CCM all over the country then CCM will find itself in a position to win without its usual political base – its members. This will be difficult still especially if the opposition put a credible contender such as Dr. Slaa and runs a united campaign. CCM Original and Lowassa's group will divide the vote and give the opposition a clear win.
- SCENARIO 4: CCM puts a "Dream Team" Against the Opposition
Under this scenario CCM might win the election if it were to put forth a dream team. In my opinion such a dream team will be of one main combination: Ramadhani/Makongoro Team or Makongoro/Ramadhani Team with the support from some of other aspirants who will not follow Lowassa (of course there will be some promised given to gain such support). The Ramadhani/Makongoro Team will be a hard one to beat but is still beatable with the help of Lowassa group and a clean but formidable campaign by the opposition.
But this combination excluding all others will be legendary by its combination – the name recognition of Nyerere and the caliber of Justice Ramadhani will be entertaining nice to watch. I don't see however, how Makongoro will be given the front seat against Ramadhani due to his lack of government or noted public service history compared to that of Justice Ramadhani but it might be a good place to start before he himself runs in five or ten years' time.
- SCENARIO 5: CCM puts Anybody But Our Three Characters
If by the end of the screening and nomination the name picked will be anybody of the other 35 aspirants beside our three characters CCM will lose the election easily. I do not see any of the other candidates beating the opposition with the fractured ruling party. Unless of course, something real damaging happens to the opposition candidate before or close to the Election Day then the opposition will lose.
Conclusion
Tanzania's ruling party is in shambles, its future uncertain, and its existence dire. This election year will test whether there is still life in it or reasons good enough to convince the Tanzanian voter to give it another five years of its rule. Whether this happens or not depends mostly on the choices the party has already made and is going to make in few hours. These choices will determine its future and the future of the country.
A sober (and somewhat somber for CCM members) look at the situation is not comforting to the party or its members. CCM has already lost some grounds and other areas are already shaking by the massive grabbing by the opposition as it marches united. Its internal failures and squabbling of its prominent members – many times publicly - have left unpalatable taste with the voters. From cities to cities and villages to villages people have become tired of the same corrupt regime that seems to change faces every five or ten years. The people want change and it seems this Change is Coming (Mabadiliko Yanakuja); with the unsolicited help of the ruling party.
If CCM falls on October 25[SUP]th[/SUP], this fall will be not only historic but incredibly chaotic, painful and legendary. The change will not only affect the politics of the country but the whole direction of the nation as well; indeed, even the very heart of the Union itself. The opposition will deserve some credits for this but ultimately it'll be CCM's own undoing if it does fall as some of us expect or pray for. May be and only may be; this fall must be. For the sake of the nation and possibly to heal the party of its internal rifts and set up for its own come back in not so foreseeable future CCM must fall.
M. M. Mwanakijiji – A Pseudonym of a Political and Social Commentator
Detroit, Michigan - USA
* A downloadable file is attached hereby.
