Mzee Mwanakijiji ,
Lowassa is only a threat inside CCM, outside CCM few will have any reason to be associated with him. Yes he does command an impressive following of party cadres, but this is simply because he somehow managed to get his "friends" to finance this association.
But, this is possible only within CCM. Outside CCM, he will need to have a message to sell, and i don't see any. If he goes against his party, then we both know what CCM will unleash. A massive coordinating attack towards a Man they will blame for all their illness. Makongoro has climbed to the highest order in of the aspirants by simply being blunt. Imagine if each and every CCM bigwig decides to be blunt, even those with shoddy ties. Lowassa, is not that good a politician/public speaker to counter the party machinery.
And most importantly, large percentage of voters are poor, not well off,which means a candidate selling the Ujamaa and "unyerere" policy will easily win the hearts and minds of majority of Tanzanians who never really got to benefit under the recently embraced capitalist policies.
Capitalism never intends to uplift the entire society, that's not the fabric of how it's made. NO one ever wins an election by promising more rich people, its simply does not work, even in the first world country. We saw that in Greece, the US, UK etc. As much as people love getting rich, those who do are actually a very tiny part of any society. Lowassa can get the votes of all middle income, and upper income voters and still lose an election. The elections are won by the lower class, and this is the class CCM needs to curate the message for them this time around, and unfortunately, Lowassa and his army of suspiciously rich cadres, simply do confuse this message.
I am 100% sure Lowassa will not get the nomination, I am also 90% sure either of the two, Makongoro/Ramadhani, will be our president come next year. Why?the message to win an election lies with them. CCM publicized itself about "kujivua Gamba" operation before, but this is the year, it has to go through with it to actually win an election.
If JK won without Lowassa and Mtandao help, and on the backdrop of huge baggage mafisadi had on him, Makongoro/Ramadhani can easily win by simply offering a clean state of back to principles and new hopes to the bearers of CCM flag (farmers and workers).
The only complication that might get into this ticket is If CCM gets cold feet and decides to add a woman in the seat, of which Asha Rose Migiro, could easily become a black horse and scoop either the VP nomination of the Nomination itself. However as things goes, Ramadhani running and any VP(Asha/Mwandosya/Bilal/) or Makongoro running and Ramadhani as VP is about the surest way for CCM to get the votes.
Mwandosya and Makongoro are important for CCM because of the massive voter base they command.While Ramadhani, is important for the outward picture that CCM want's to portray, although with careful Opposition, this picture could backfire.since a carefully calibrated opposition message that his party affiliation was blurry during his tenure as CJ could cause some damage. BUT you do realize you are on the winning side, when the only negative thing about your candidate is an assumption of association.
