The Libyan crisis has exposed how weak the continent's leaders have become!
Gaddafi refuge would cost Libyan neighbours dear
By Bate Felix Tabi Tabe and Mark John
NIAMEY/DAKAR | Thu Sep 8, 2011 11:42pm IST
(Reuters) - Playing host to an exiled Muammar Gaddafi would entail huge costs for any of the African countries on Libya's southern borders, who would
likely face a diplomatic and economic backlash from the West and Libya's new rulers.
That risk is seen outweighing residual admiration in the region for a leader who, while irking many states with his frequent meddling in their affairs, also lavished gifts on his neighbours and was a major voice of the anti-colonial movement.
"There is no upside for anyone to take in Gaddafi. I don't buy the idea that popular support for Gaddafi would compel any of these governments to do that," said Tom Cargill at London-based think-tank Chatham House.
The arrival this week of Gaddafi's security chief Mansour Dhao in Niger and reports of a convoy of vehicles carrying pro-Gaddafi forces in the north of the country sparked speculation of a possible exile deal for the former Libyan ruler.
Niger on Wednesday denied Gaddafi himself was in the country and said initial reports that the convoy in its desert north amounted to over 200 vehicles were vastly inflated. Mansour had been allowed entry on "humanitarian grounds", it said.
As Britain and France weighed in with demands that Gaddafi face justice either at home or in the International Criminal Court,
Burkina Faso quickly played down an earlier exile offer, saying it had received no such request from Gaddafi.
Gaddafi has repeatedly vowed to stay in Libya and African Union commission chairman Jean Ping told French radio on Thursday that while the continental body had identified several exile options, "he (Gaddafi) does not want to leave".
That, ultimately, could be the best outcome for
countries such as Niger, Burkina Faso, Mali and Chad which all could have much to lose if Gaddafi showed up at their doorstep.
"These countries are under enormous international pressure, with European cooperation agreements or defence accords at stake," said Alain Antil of Paris-based think IFRI.
"Despite the sympathy that still to an extent exists locally, there is a very keen appreciation in the Sahel region as elsewhere of the balance of power," he added.
While Gaddafi has exasperated many Africans over the years with efforts to wield influence from neighbouring Chad down to further afield Liberia and Sierra Leone, some Africans seem disappointed that an exile offer has failed to materialise.
"African leaders should be ashamed of themselves," said Edouard Zida, a student in the Burkina capital Ouagadougou.
"The West has it in for Gaddafi because he stood up to them. They should all be ready to welcome him in but they are afraid."
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Reuters