Nauona mwisho wa Rais Magufuli

Nauona mwisho wa Rais Magufuli

inchaji said:
kuna siku uzi huu utapata comments nyingi sana kama vile siku hiyo ndiyo itakuwa unapostiwa kwa mara ya kwanza
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Ni sahihi wakti wenyewe ndo huu na umetaradadi kwelikweli😂😂
 
mvuv said:
upinzani mkubwa kutokea ndani ya CCM yenyewe. Hii ndio hatari kubwa iliyomuondoa Ghadafi , Sadam Hussein na hata Idd Amin Dada. Hakuna upinzani mgum kuushinda kama upinzani wa ndani maana hutoa fursa kwa maadui wa nje kupata nguvu zaidi na kwa hakika mwisho wa Magufuli ndio huu huu labda itokee muujiza tu.
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Maono yako yametimia. JamiiForums inastahili kuheshimiwa sana na watawala maana kuna nondo nyingi za uchambuzi ambazo zinaweza kuifanya nchi hii kwenda vizuri.

Kongole na hongera kwa wana Jamiiforums kwa uzalendo wa kweli wa kusema kweli daima juu ya aina ya utawala wa awamu ya tano.

Hivyo viongozi wote ngazi zote wa awamu ya sita na zingine zijazo waje wachote madini hapa JF.
 

When Dictators Fall: Preventing Violent Conflict During Transitions from Authoritarian Rule​

Conflict Prevention and Management

OUTLINE
JCM and Qatari Foreign Minister vsit Nyala

UN Photo/Albert González Farran
EXPECTED END DATE:2020•03•25PROJECT STATUS:Completed

UNU-CPR RESEARCHERS: Adam Day, Luise Quaritsch​

EXTERNAL RESEARCHERS: Dirk Druet​

Why does one country peacefully transition out of authoritarian rule while another falls into violent conflict, and what can the UN do to influence pathways away from violence?​

This paper concerns the transitions out of entrenched authoritarian rule, the often volatile moments when new leadership comes into power.​

​

Some transitions take place peacefully, largely within constitutional order, but others may descend into civil unrest or even escalate into all-out civil war. In support the UN’s prevention mandate, this project is driven by the question, why does one country peacefully transition out of authoritarian rule while another falls into violent conflict, and what can the UN do to influence pathways away from violence?​

This project draws on scholarship around authoritarianism and neo-patrimonial States as well as original research by United Nations University Centre for Policy Research into entrenched political systems. It identifies four key factors that may influence whether a transition tends to result in violent conflict​


Entrenched authoritarian systems are those where a leader or group has centralized power and resources in a manner that limits meaningful political and economic inclusion, instrumentalizes key State institutions, reduces democratic space and often allows a specific individual to remain in power well beyond typical constitutional limits.
  1. past forms of rule (democratic or authoritarian);
  2. the way in which a political system transitions (e.g. through a coup, election, death, transfer of power or popular uprising);
  3. the fate of the individual leader, including questions of personal property and accountability for human rights abuses; and
  4. economic performance and the degree of inequality within a given society.
It further finds that, while all regime types have experienced both violent and peaceful transitions, those that are highly personalized (vesting power in an individual rather than institutions) tend to experience greater difficulties in moving into inclusive forms of governance, which may influence longer-term prospects for peace.

In exploring a comprehensive set of cases over the past 30 years, this project also makes some broader (and often counter-intuitive) findings about the role of violence in such transitions.

The transitions that occurred with the lowest levels of violence were in systems with some of the poorest governance indicators. In fact, countries at various points on the governance scale witnessed transitions that brought about dramatic and sustained change in the distribution of power with little or no violence, a finding which suggests that the quality of governance may not be directly linked to violence levels in transitions.

In contrast, two factors did appear to correlate with relatively high levels of violence: those involving foreign intervention, and transitions triggered by public uprisings. The significant rise in frequency of popular uprisings as the dominant form of transition in recent decades has meant that transitional moments have become more prone to large-scale violence. These findings raise significant questions about the role of external actors in transitional processes, and how the international community might engage before, during and after changes in leadership.

These trends in transitions present a complex and interrelated set of challenges for the UN, which often must balance its prevention mandate alongside respect for sovereignty and host State consent. The UN is often poorly placed to ramp up its prevention activities in entrenched authoritarian systems, in part because national leadership tends to be strongly resistant to engagement on politically sensitive subjects.

Additionally, these systems tend to have weak and/or highly politicized institutions, raising dilemmas for UN efforts to build institutional capacity as a hedge against violent conflict. UN leverage over the political leadership in-country is frequently constrained, given that authoritarian leaders tend to be isolated and less susceptible to traditional forms of pressure (e.g. sanctions or moral pressure). That said, there is strong evidence from this project’s case studies that the UN has engaged in creative and impactful practices in transitional settings, helping to reduce the risks of violence and building bridges towards longer-term outcomes.

Based on these findings, the paper offers twelve conclusions and recommendations for the UN when confronted with transitional moments from entrenched authoritarian rule. READ THEM
Source : When Dictators Fall: Preventing Violent Conflict During Transitions from Authoritarian Rule - United Nations University Centre for Policy Research
767 Third Avenue, 35th Floor
New York, NY 10017
United States

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Read More :
theconversation.com

Are dictators on the way out – or on the way up?

At first, the 2010s seemed full of hope for democracy. The picture today is rather more complicated.
theconversation.com theconversation.com
file-20180511-34009-xlfdmj.jpg
After 37 years, a titan falls
 
TIBIM said:
Yona inabidi atupwe ili dhoruba itulie chombo kifike Salama Ninawi.Naye Yona akatoswa baharini Mungu akamtuma Samaki akammeza Yona akamtapika nchi Kavu.Yote sababu alikataa maagizo ya Mungu alimtuma akawakomboe watu wake akayakataa maagizo ya Mungu Kwa kuwageukia watu wake Kwa kuwafanya walie usiku na mchana,sasa Mungu ameyasikia machozi ya watu wake atamtupa Yona baharini ili bahari itulie chombo kifike salama.
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Hakika! Hakika.
 
hito said:
porojo siku zote ccm ni wamoja tu migogoro kawaida mbona hata kwenye familia zetu tunagombana na wake zetu kakini tunapatana naamini ccm hii migogoro itakwisha na wenye fitina wakibaki midomo wazi
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Katika vyama vyote vya siasa vilivyosajiliwa Tanzania kwa muda huu 2021, CCM ni chama dhaifu kupita vyote hata cha CHAUMA chini ya mwenyekiti mzee Hashim Rungwe ni chama thabiti kuliko CCM.

Sababu ni kuwa mwendazake baada ya kuua mihimili ya dola, mahakama na bunge akamalizia kukimaliza chama kilichomweka madarakani. Muda huu CCM haina Mwenyekiti wa Taifa wala Katibu Mkuu wa chama.

Hali hii imefikiwa kwa vile CCM ilishindwa kumdhibiti mwendazake kufanya mambo yake ya kuwaondoa vigogo tishio ndani ya CCM na kuleta "wageni" na kuwazawadia vyeo kwa sharti wamuimbie mapambio anayopenda kusikia.

Kina Bashiru Ally Kakurwa, Humphrey Polepole ni aina ya viongozi ambao viongozi walikuwa hawawezi kumuambia chochote Mwenyekiti ambacho wao wanaamini kinyume na kama kina Nape Nnauye , January Makamba na hata wazee kama Yusuf Makamba, Abdulrahman Kinana.

Tukija katika dola, mwendazake aliiyumbisha na kuivuruga kabisa mfumo wa utumishi serikalini yaani civil service. Aliwachukua watu wasio na ujuzi wa utumishi serikalini na kuwapachika vyeo vya u DED, Makatibu Wakuu na kujaribu kuhitimisha pigo kuu la kuua utumishi serikalini kwa kumuapisha Dr. Bashiru Ally Kakurwa kama Katibu Mkuu Kiongozi ambaye ktk historia ndiye Katibu Mkuu aliyekuwa hana uzoefu kabisa ktk utumishi wa serikali kuu.

Tukija katika mhimili wa Mahakama tuliona alivyouburuza na kuwapa vyeo vya ujaji kwa vigezo dhaifu mfano kuandika hukumu kwa kiSwahili huku kesi hiyo ikiwa ni nyepesi mno.

Bunge pia lilipelekeshwa kwa Spika kuelekezwa kuwashughulikia wabunge wake kwa kuwatoa nje ili waje kushughulikiwa na mwendazake nje ya Bunge. Wabunge wa CCM pia hawakuepuka kipigo cha kisiasa toka kwa mwendazake, ktk kuelekea uchaguzi wa 2020 walishughulikiwa na 'wajumbe' na kama waliweza kupenya walikutana na rungu la Mwenyekiti wa CCM.

Vyeo katika ngazi za uwaziri tumeona waliojiunga mwishoni ktk CCM toka vyama mbadala walitunikiwa vyeo huku wale waliokulia ktk UVCCM na Jumuiya za CCM toka utotoni wakiambulia kuwa backbenchers. Yote hii ilikuwa kuonesha CCM imekufa na sasa mtu mmoja ndiyo kila kitu hivyo wasifurukute au kuwashwa kuhoji au kutoa mawazo mbadala.

Tanzania ilikuwa inaelekea kubaya, lakini kama uzi huu ulivyotabiri wa mwana JF Mvuv, inaonekana ndani ya CCM ndiyo kulikuwa na fukuto kubwa la kutokubaliana na kinachoendelea na sasa tunasikia baada ya mwendazake kuondoka, wabunge wa CCM na SPIKA mwanaCCM wanaanza kutoa maoni ambayo yanaonekana na waimba pambio wa mwendazake kuwa ni unafiki.

Swali kuu sasa 2021 April 12 ni kuwa je zoezi la kumtafuta Mwenyekiti wa Taifa CCM na Katibu Mkuu CCM litakwenda kwa utulivu mkubwa wa kisiasa ndani ya Halmashauri Kuu ya CCM NEC na Kamati Kuu yake na hatimaye chama kuibuka kuweza kuwadhibiti wanachama wake wote ikiwemo Mwenyekiti wao wa CCM.

Yetu ni masikio na macho, wakati utazungumza kama uzi huu wa Mvuv unavyotuambia.
 
A Lot expected of new president Samia Suluhu Hassan - Journalist


Source : GhanaWeb TV
 
Pohamba said:
CCM ina kawaida ya kutingisha Ma Rais wake ili wajirekebishe, hivyo msidhan ni mwisho wa Rais Magufuli au wa Ccm

Kwa watoto wadogo ngoja kidogo tuwape Historia ya Ccm na Wazee wastaafu wa Ccm

Wazee wastaafu wakiona mambo hayaendi sawia ndio hujitokeza kwa namna tofauti

1984, Hayati Sheikh Thabeet Kombo Katibu Mkuu mstaafu wa ASP aliokoa Jahazi kwny Siasa za Znz baada ya Mkwamo ule na hata Jina la Rais Ally Hassan Mwinyi kupendekezwa kuwa Rais wa Znz lilitoka kwa huyu Mzee

1993 Wakati wa Mkwamo wa Kisiasa kuhusu Serikal tatu , Mzee Mstaafu Julius Nyerere ndio aliokoa jahazi wakati huo tayari mpaka Bunge limeshapitisha Azimio la kuvunja muungano kwa kuruhusu Serikal 3

1997 Katibu mkuu mstaafu aliingilia Kati kuhusu mchakato usio Mwema wa Chama kuporwa na Mabwanyeye akikaripia Kuwa Chama kinakosa dira na Mwelekeo lakin bahati mbaya akafia kwny Kikao cha Kamati kuu Dodoma akiwa kwny mjadala

2005-2015 Wazee wa Kigoda cha Mel Nyerere hawakuchoka kukosoa mapungufu ya Kiuongozi hali ambayo ilimsaidia Rais wa wakati huo kuachana na Rafiki zake wa Miaka yote

2019 kama kawaida Wazee wamejitokeza tena kumsaidia Rais aweze kutambua Vibaraka wanaojifanya wana mapenzi Mema na Rais


Tunaposema Wazee ni Hazina yetu tuna maanisha

Mnaotegemea watu kugawana mbao endeleeni kusuburi kwa kuwa Subira siku hizi yavuta Bhangi
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Pole san Pohamba na utetezi wako fyongo.
 
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