I think for Raila, his goose is cooked and like the farther he may never see Kenyan presidency. For one, he has antagonized so many people many of whom fought to give him the powers he is enjoying. And many Kenyans I am sorry to say don't trust him. He is a potential dictator. The post election violence is the other dark spot that majority of Kenyans believe that had he wanted it to end, it could not have lasted a day. Then there is the issue of western powers trying to interfere with the Kenyan election. It is now in public domain that Raila is the preferred choice of Britain. They have been caught with a hand in the candy jar trying to manipulate issues for their preferred candidate. That has made even the few of us who had a soft spot for him, to shove it aside otherwise who would enjoy return of colonialism in this age.
Uhuru on the other hand was not that popular in the beginning, but The Hague issue is making him enjoy lots of sympathy particularly from his community. It is largely believed that he organized or is perceived to have organized his community to defend themselves while the Raila brigade was busy calling for mass action. Many Kikuyus especially the enlightened ones believe that it's not fare for another Kikuyu to be elected president at least not this time around; however, if the other option is Raila, they better vote Uhuru or that other candidate who will be challenging Raila.
Musalia Mudavadi is no doubt a force to reckon with. There could be also the arithmetic of G7 alliance consolidating their support behind MM. A Musalia presidency and Uhuru running mate will in no doubt be a difficult group to beat that is incase Uhuru survives the Hague, alternatively Musalia and any other G7 member. Musalia has never at any one time stood in a podium to arrogantly rebuke others; always composed and soft. This is a trait many would like and would be perceived as a sober guy