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Maumivu kwa Waagizaji Bidhaa Nje, Shilingi ya Tanzania yazidi kushuka thamani dhidi ya Dola
Watanzania sasa wanalazimika kuingia zaidi mifukoni mwao ili kulipia zaidi katika uagizaji wa bidhaa kutoka nje ya nchi huku kukiwa na hali ya kutia wasiwasi juu ya kuendelea kuporomoka kwa shilingi dhidi ya dola ya Marekani.
Kwa mujibu wa Viwango elekezi vya ubadilishaji wa fedha vya Benki Kuu ya Tanzania (BoT) hadi kufikia leo Agosti 17, 2023 vinaonesha shilingi imepiga rekodi mpya ya wastani wa Tsh. 2,428.7 dhidi ya dola, hivyo kuwawekea wananchi bei ghali zaidi ya uagizaji bidhaa kutoka nje na ulipaji madeni.
Wakati BOT ikiweka kiwango hicho, katika maeneo ya ubadilishaji fedha (Bureau De Change) ipo zenye kiwango cha Tsh. 2500 hadi 2700 kwa Dola 1 ya Marekani katika maeneo mengine yasiyo rasmi
Wataalamu wanasema endapo shilingi haitaimarika kwa haraka waagizaji watakuwa wakitumia fedha nyingi zaidi kuleta bidhaa kama malighafi za viwandani.
"Matokeo ya kile kinachoendelea yataanza kuonekana kupitia kupanda kwa gharama za pembejeo kwa makampuni ambayo yatapitisha gharama za ziada kwa watumiaji," Dk Jane Buberwa, mchumi kutoka Dar es Salaam ameeleza.
Hata hivyo, kwa mujibu wa Dkt. Buberwa si Tanzania pekee inayopitia hali hii ya thamani ya fedha kushuka, sarafu za Nchi nyingi za Kusini mwa Jangwa la Sahara pia zinaendelea kudhoofika dhidi ya dola ya Marekani, huku zikikumbana na shinikizo la mfumuko wa bei na gharama za uagizaji zikiendelea kupanda, kulingana.
"Kwa kudhoofika kwa shilingi yetu dhidi ya dola, bei za ndani hivi karibuni zitapanda ikiwa ni pamoja na bidhaa muhimu kama vile chakula ambacho mara nyingi huagizwa kutoka nje," alibainisha.
Bw. Aziz Rashid, Mhadhiri Msaidizi wa Kibenki na Fedha za Kimataifa katika Chuo Kikuu cha Ardhi, alisema kutokana na hali ilivyo sasa, uchumi wa watu katika nchi inayoagiza bidhaa nyingi kutoka nje utakuwa hatarini kuzorota kutokana na bei ya juu ya bidhaa.
"Hali hii ikiendelea kwa kasi hii, itasababisha mfumuko wa bei kutoka nje, ambao ni ongezeko kubwa la bei ya bidhaa kutokana na sababu za nje na kulingana na nguvu ya hifadhi ya dola," alisema.
Ili kukabiliana na hali hiyo, ameshauri serikali kuweka kiasi fulani cha ruzuku katika kila bidhaa anayonunua mwananchi ikiwa ni pamoja na kusamehe baadhi ya kodi kwenye bidhaa zinazotoka nje ya nchi.
Njia nyingine aliyoshauri ni kutumia sera ya fedha, ambayo pia itategemea serikali ina akiba kiasi gani cha fedha.
"Ili kupunguza shinikizo la ongezeko la thamani ya dola dhidi ya shilingi, serikali inaweza kupunguza shinikizo kwenye soko la fedha kwa kutumia 'Sera za Kuingilia Moja kwa Moja'."
Amesema, hali hii itatulia ikiwa BoT itakwenda kwenye soko la fedha na kuingiza dola nyingi dhidi ya shilingi ili kuweka utulivu wa viwango vya ubadilishaji fedha, akitoa mfano wa Uturuki iliyotumia njia hiyo kwa mafanikio kulingana na akiba ya fedha iliyokuwa nayo.
"Tunapaswa kupunguza shinikizo hili pia kwa kuangalia washirika wetu wakuu wa biashara ili tukubaliane kufanya miamala kwa sarafu zetu za ndani, kama ilivyokuwa kwa India (Tanzania na India zilifanya miamala kwa Shilingi na Rupia)," alishauri.
Kwa mujibu wa Shirika la Fedha la Kimataifa (IMF), kushuka kwa thamani katika eneo lote la Afrika Mashariki pamoja na Nchi za Sahara kunachangiwa zaidi na msukumo kutoka nje.
Kwa upande wa Fedha za kigeni, amesema Nchi nyingi zimepata pigo kutokana na Nchi hizo kupunguza kiwango cha mauzo ya nje ya kanda kwa sababu ya kudorora kwa uchumi katika mataifa makubwa.
Naye Mhadhiri kutoka Chuo cha Elimu ya Biashara (CBE), Dk Dickson Pastory, alisema kuwa serikali pia inaweza kuingilia soko la fedha na kuongeza dola katika soko la kubadilisha fedha za kigeni ili mzunguko wake uwe mkubwa kuepusha kitendawili cha dola.
“Serikali iendelee kuboresha sekta ya utalii ili wageni wengi waingie nchini. Hii, hata hivyo, lazima iendane na utaratibu wa kununua bidhaa kwa shilingi ya Tanzania badala ya dola ili kuwe na mahitaji ya shilingi sokoni,” alisema.
Hali hii inayoendelea ilifanya BoT, mwezi Juni, kutoa tamko kuhusu tangazo kwa umma la Agosti 2007 na Desemba 2017 linalozuia malipo ya ndani ya bidhaa na huduma kwa kutumia fedha za kigeni kati ya wananchi wa Tanzania.
Hata hivyo, kulikuwa na ukiukwaji wa utaratibu huu, hivyo kuwakumbusha wananchi kwa ujumla kuwa maagizo ya serikali bado ni halali na yanapaswa kuzingatiwa wakati wote.
"Hii ni hatua muhimu sana ambayo inaweza kutusaidia kwa kuanzia, hivyo watu wanapaswa kuifuata ikiwa kuna biashara yoyote inayofanyika hapa nchini," alisisitiza Dk Buberwa.
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Tanzanians are now forced to dig deeper into their pockets to pay for imports and other foreign products in the country amid a worrying shilling fall to an all-time low against the United States dollar.
Bank of Tanzania (BoT)’s indicative exchange rates as of Thursday show the country’s shilling has hit a new record low of an average of 2428.7 against the dollar, setting up citizens for more expensive imports and debt servicing distress.
Experts say that such an unpredictable shilling means importers will be spending more on bringing in goods as raw materials for factories.
“The results of what is going on will begin to show up through the rise in the cost of inputs for firms, which in turn will pass on the additional expenses to consumers,” said Dr Jane Buberwa, an economist based in Dar es Salaam.
However, it is not only Tanzania that was at this dollar-shilling hullabaloo, but most Sub-Saharan African currencies also continue to weaken against the US dollar, circulating inflationary pressures across the continent as import prices keep on surging, according to Dr Buberwa.
“With the weakening of our shilling against the dollar, local prices will soon surge including essential items like food which mostly are imported,” she noted.
Mr Aziz Rashid, assistant lecturer on Banking and International currency at Ardhi University, said due to the current situation, the economy of people in a country that imports more than it produces risks deterioration due to high product prices.
“If this situation continues at this pace, it will lead to imported inflation, which is a large increase in the price of goods due to external factors depending on the strength of the dollar reserve,” he said.
In order to face the situation, he said the government can put a certain amount of subsidy into every product that a citizen buys, including exempting some taxes on the imported products.
Another way he advised was to use a monetary policy, which will also depend on how much money the government has in reserve.
“In order to reduce the pressure of the increase of the dollar against the shilling, the government can reduce the pressure on the forex market by using ‘Direct Intervention Policies’.”
This step, he said, is where BoT goes to the forex market and dumps many dollars against shillings to stabilise exchange rates, citing the example of Turkey, which used the method successfully, depending on the reserve of money it had.
“We have to reduce this pressure also by looking at our major trading partners so that we can agree to make transactions in our local currencies, as was the case with India (Tanzania and India transacted using Shillings and Rupees),” he advised.
According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the depreciations across the region were mostly driven by external factors.
Lower risk appetite in global markets and interest rate hikes in the United States pushed investors away from the region towards safer and higher-paying US Treasury bonds, it states.
Foreign exchange, it states, took a hit in many countries as demand for the region’s exports dropped because of the economic slowdown in major economies.
A lecturer from the College of Business Education (CBE), Dr Dickson Pastory, said that the government can also intervene in money markets and increase the dollar in foreign exchange markets so that its circulation is greater to avoid the dollarisation conundrum.
“The government should continue to improve the tourism industry so that more visitors enter the country. This, however, must be in line with the procedure of buying goods in Tanzanian shillings instead of dollars so that there is a demand for shillings in the market,” he said.
This ongoing situation made BoT, in June, issue a statement concerning a public notice of August 2007 and December 2017 prohibiting domestic payments for goods and services using foreign currencies between Tanzania residents.
However, there was a violation of this procedure, thus reminding the general public that the government’s directives were still valid and should be adhered to at all times.
Titled Dealing with the Currency within the United Republic of Tanzania, the notice insists that all prices of goods and services in the country should be quoted in Tanzanian shillings.
“This is a very important step that can help us to begin with, so people should follow it if there is any business going on here in the country,” emphasised Dr Buberwa.
THE EAST AFRICAN
