Kwanza nilikuwa sifahamu kama Chadema wanaandamana "kila siku" pili hata wakiandamana "kila siku" ni portion ndogo sana ya work force inayokuwa idle ukilinganisha na total population inayokuwa kazini kiasi kwamba inaweza kuparalyze uchumi wetu, tatu niwie radhi siwezi kujibu kila nukta kwani naona twaenda nje ya muktadha kwa kuanza kujadili siasa badala ya hali halisi ya kiuchumi..
- Weka idadi ya barabara za lami kabla ya Kikwete Vs Idadi ya magari kabla na baada ya Kikwete
- Weka idadi ya Shule kabla ya Kikwete Vs Idadi ya wanafunzi kabla na Baada ya Kikwete
- Weka idadi ya Waalimu kabla ya Kikwete Vs idadi ya madarasa na vitendea kazi kabla na baada ya Kikwete
- Weka idadi ya Zahanati kabla ya Kikwete Vs Idadi ya wagonjwa, wauguzi na madawa kabla na Baada ya kikwete
- Weka idadi ya Viwanda kabla ya Kikwete Vs Huitaji wa Bidhaa kabla na baada ya Kikwete
- Weka idadi ya Utalii kabla ya Kikwete Vs Maendeleo ya Technologia ya kutangaza utalii kabla na baada ya Kikwete
- Weka idadi ya Umeme kabla ya Kikwete Vs mahitaji ya umeme kabla na baada ya Kikwete
- Weka idadi ya Maji kabla ya Kikwete Vs mahitaji ya maji kabla na baada ya Kikwete
- Weka idadi ya kazi kabla ya Kikwete Vs mahitaji ya kazi kabla na baada ya Kikwete
- Weka idadi ya biashara kabla ya Kikwete Vs Ulipaji wa kodi wa hizo biashara kabla na baada ya Kikwete
- Weka idadi ya umaskini kabla ya Kikwete Vs Umasikini wa FIKRA kabla na baada ya Kikwete
- Weka idadi ya kilimo kabla ya Kikwete Vs Kilimo???? hiki cha msimu, nchi zilizoendelea hawana huo msamiati!
- Weka idadi ya bidhaa zinazopita bandari zetu kabla ya Kikwete Vs bidhaa zinazolipiwa ushuru kabla na baada ya Kikwete
- Weka akiba ya fedha tulokuwa nayo kabla ya Kikwete Vs Kushindwa kuwalipa waajiri wake mishaara mwisho wa mwezi
Soma vizuri, wakati wenzetu wame "fail" sisi tumeonesha "success" na tumepanda chart. Mbona mnaandika pumba, huwa hamsomi kinachoandikwa?
hata kama ni propaganda umezidi na wewe hebu kaa kimya muda mwingine tuweze kupata facts agrrrrrrrrrrrrrh...Uchumi ni mzuri kwa sasa na kuna kila hali bidii ikiongezeka uchumi utaongezeka takwimu ni nzuri, magwanda wanataka kutuharibia uchumi ili wapate kisingizio lakini hilo tumesha liona na tunalidhibiti.
r
NGOJA nipitie kwa umakini taarifa ya IMF kupitia Newsletter niliyoipata leo kuna mchana wa saa saba!!!
Concluding Statement by the IMF Mission to Tanzania
Press Release No.11/401
November 7, 2011
........................
"An International Monetary Fund (IMF) mission, led by Mr. Peter Allum, visited Dar es Salaam during October 26November 7, 2011 to conduct discussions for the third review under the Policy Support Instrument (PSI).[SUP]1[/SUP] The mission met with Finance Minister Mkulo, Bank of Tanzania Governor Ndulu, and other senior officials, as well as representatives of the private sector, civil society, and development partners. The mission wishes to thank the authorities for their warm hospitality, close collaboration, and the high quality of the discussions."
"At the conclusion of the mission in Dar es Salaam, Mr. Allum issued the following statement:
Despite recent power shortages, Tanzanias economy continues to grow strongly, expanding 6.3 percent in the first half of 2011. Core inflation, measured excluding food and energy components, remains in single digits, while headline inflation has approached 17 percent (year-on-year), boosted by global energy prices, food price effects from the drought in the Horn of Africa, and the recent depreciation of the shilling. Public spending has risen as a share of gross domestic product (GDP) in recent years to deliver significant growth in local government health, education and other social programs as well as scaled up investments in roads and other infrastructures. However, overall recurrent spending has outpaced revenue and grant financing, contributing to growing fiscal deficits and a rising public debt stock."
Under the PSI program through June 2011, the Bank of Tanzanias reserve money targets were met and foreign commercial borrowing was kept well within program limits. However, partly due to the shortfall in commercial borrowing, domestic financing of the budget was higher than planned and the target for accumulating net international reserves was missed. Structural reforms are moving forward, notably to strengthen debt management capacity.
For more information, visits
Press Release: Concluding Statement by the IMF Mission to Tanzania
Hiyo sasa ndio taarifa rasmi ya IMF, ambayo si ya ki CHADEMA CHADEMA bali iliyotokana na utafiti wao. Ndio taarifa inayopaswa kuchambuliwa kwa hivi sasa na kuwekwa kwenye mizani na kuangalia inaegemea wapi!!!
"Year","Tanzania"
"2004","2175000064"
"2005","2074000000"
"2006","2375000064"
"2007","2910000128"
"2008","2915000064"
"2009","3206000128"
"2010","3687000064"
Tulipofanikiwa wapi? Can you show me? Au ni kufunga barabara ya ocean road saa kumi na mbili jioni ndio mafanikio?? Au ni Dowans na Richmond??? I can't see anything am sorry!! Pumba mwazileta nyie wenye kutoa hoja za jazba kwenye mambo yanayomgusa kila mtanzania bila kujari itikadi wala dini.
Merekani wanakopa itakuwa Tanzania? mnanchekesha!
Mdondoaji,
I have just looked at your old posts kuhusu ugiriki....it must have been a very interesting debate; I don't know how I missed that; cha kusikitisha zaidi - sio kwamba wahusika hawakuyaona haya; this was like 6 months ago;
Based on your thread, kama hizo sababu ndio kansa kwenye uchumi wa Ugiriki, basi na Tanzania we have just been diagnosed with kansa, the issue ni kwamba tutaiwahi au lah; kwani vitu vikubwa humo ni matumizi makubwa na mabaya ya serikali; Usimamizi mbovu wa kodi and tax evasion; kwetu tumeona jinsi gani up to 25% of the budget ni matumizi ya ovyo (this is very discouraging); pia tumeona katika mijadala yetu mingine ingawa tunajisifia kukusanya kodi kwa wingi tofauti na miaka ya nyuma, bado haisaidii kupunguza our budget deficit; isitoshe, tumejionea wenyewe kwamba kwa mwaka tunapoteza over 30% of the our revenues to tax evasion;
Kuhusu CAG on Debt ni sahihi kabisa kwamba ni mzigo mkubwa sana kwa mlipa kodi; hii ni kwa sababu tutake tusitake ni lazima serikali to attend external debt before domestic debt kwa njia ya exports zetu ambazo ndio dollar hizo hizo we need for mafuta etc, dollar ambazo tunawakamua maskini wa vijijini kwani the biggest foreign exchange earner bado ni kilimo. Hii ndio maana deni la serikali la ndani linazidi kupata riba na kurundikana huku la nje nalo liki get out of hand; na kibaya zaidi ni kwamba hata ndani serikali inazidi kukopa – inazidi kuongeza deficit ambayo ni mafuta katika petrol ya inflation; pia kukopa ndani ina ‘crowd out' effect kwa SMEs kupata mikopo, sasa ukichanganya na hatua ya BOT juzi to reduce money supply by increasing bank rate and cash reserve requirements ndio kunapelekea huu uchumi wa Ndullu kuwa uchwara;
Katika hali kama hii, no wonder WorldBank came with a study kwamba about 71% of firms in Tanzania do not report all their sales for tax purposes; why should they wakati kwa upande mmoja wanapigwa na dhoruba la power cuts, kwingine wanapigwa na unanticipated inflation, kwingine wanapigwa na crowding effect kwenye domestic credit access kutokana na serikali kuzidisha its budget deficit?
Na kwa wananchi, VAT in Tanzania is 20%, the highest in East Africa kwani Kenya ni 16% na Uganda ni 18%; Ghana wenzetu as I said earlier wameamua kuwapunguzia mzigo wananchi on indirect tax ya VAT na kuamua ku focus on direct taxes kwenye sector ya madini na kwingineko; VAT (kodi kwenye mikate, maji ya uhai n.k) na Excise Duties (petrol, sigara, soda na Bia) kwa kweli sio suluhisho kwa nchi yenye watu million 45 ambapo over 30 million of these ni maskini wa kutupa; wengi wao wapo kwenye kilimo ambacho serikali inajaribu sana kupata mwanya wa kwenda kuwalima kodi huko as a means of expanding the tax base lakini inashindwa because a significant portion of sekta ya kilimo is not monetized ingawa ndio largest contributor wa pato letu la taifa (GDP); sekta nyingine muhimu ni ya madini but we all know kinachoendelea huko na kodi madini – kuna so many loopholes wanazotumia kukwepa kodi kupitia input zao kama mafuta n.k, let alone the meager 3% royalty charged by the government; sekta ya tatu kwa ukubwa ni utalii but huko napo based on the nature of cash transactions inawia vigumu kwa serikali kukusanya mapato kwa ufanisi kwani cash transactions always encourage tax evasion;
Sasa Serikali inabakia na nini?
Moja, kuna corporate tax at 30% - ila tunaona jinsi gani makampuni mengi ya nje yanadanganya kodi kwa kutoa taarifa za uongo, au kwa ku enjoy 5 years tax holidays (mfano Kempinski sasahivi ni Grand Hyatt na serikali imewapa pale ilipokuwa mahakama kuu ili waegeshe magari yao – angalau enzi zile magari yanayopaki pale kufuatilia kesi yalikuwa yanalipia sh 300 kwa siku to national parking system yam zee kingunge, but with the private parking lot ya Kempinski I mean Grand Hyatt, hata hizi hela tutazikosa kwani Grand Hyatt watatengeza hela zao, kodi hawalipi, na in 2016 watamleta Marriot or whoever they know); utapeli mwingine wa makampuni ya nje ni kupitia ‘tranfer pricing' ambapo wanacheza na subsidiaries zao; Nje ya corporate tax kinachobakia ni VAT & excise duties kama tulivyokwisha ona;
Kwahiyo we are more likely to collapse kimapato kutokana na sababu za sekta ya kilimo (see above); sekta ya madini (see above); VAT ambayo hata wenzetu Ghana wameona ni mzigo wa wananchi; na Excise duty ambayo ni kodi measured by the amount of business done – na hutozwa kwenye sigara, bidhaa za mafuta, soda na bia;
Ebu tuitazame Excise Duty Kidogo:
By convention, excise hutoswa kulingana na volume yako ya business (production for instance); hii ina maana kwamba Cha kusikitisha ni kwamba kam Excise duty zinategemea volume of business, ina maana kwamba mgao wa umeme unapunguza uzalishaji wa sigara, bia, soda, hivyo kupelekea serikali kukusanya less taxes; as a matter of fact according to confederation of industries in Tanzania, uzalishaji Tanzania ulipungua by 50% kutokana na mgao wa umeme meaning, leaving other things constant, mgao umeme serikali mapato ya excise by 50% at least; Si ajabu ndio maana mapato ya serikali mwaka huu wa fedha yameshuka sana (see below):
Financial Period Domestic Revenue (Tsh) Foreign Aid (Tsh) Overall Budget (Tsh) AID (Ushoga) as % of total budget Domestic Revenue as % of total budget 2007 – 2008 3.5 trillion 2.5 trillion 6.1 trillion 41 % 57 % 2008 – 2009 4.8 trillion 2.4 trillion 7.2 trillion 33 % 66 % 2009 – 2010 6.3 trillion 3.1 trillion 9.5 trillion 33 % 66 % 2010 – 2011 8.3 trillion 3.2 trillion 11.6trillion 28 % 72 % 2011 - 2012 6.7 trillion 3.9 trillion 13.5 trillion 28 % 49 %
Mkullo during the 2011 – 2012 budget alitamka kwamba lengo ni ifikapo 2015 dependency ya AID or Ushoga on our budget iwe in single digits i.e under 10%; malengo mazuri ila iwapo itatekelezeka; lakini based on challenges za ukusanyaji kodi tulizokwisha ziona hapo juu, hii itakuwa kazi sana kufanikisha; Ili kuthibitisha kauli yangu kwanini I dare to challenge Mkullo's target – ebu tuangalie namba muhimu sana hapa chini:
Kwanza tujiulize – budget dependency on aid kawaida inashushwa na vitu gani? Tusisahau kwamba deni letu la nje limetulemea na la ndani linaelekea kuifilisi kabisa serikali kama bado haijafilisika; na tusisahau kwamba priority ya malipo ya madeni always huwa ni madeni ya nje kwanza then ya ndani.
Sasa turudi kuangalia uchumi Uchwara wa Mkullo na Ndullu wenye maneno mazuri kwamba by 2015, lengo ni Tanzania kushusha budget dependency on AID from current level of 28% to under 10% by the year 2015;
Swali:
Inakuwaje hapo kwenye jedwali tunaona marue rue – contribution of AID towards the budget for the financial year 2010 – 2011 was at 28% and contribution of domestic revenue on that budget was 72%; then look closely, in the following financial year i.e. 2011 – 2012 contribution ya AID on the budget was still at 28% but the contribution of domestic revenue fell very sharply from 72% to 49%? Hapa ndipo kuna tatizo lote la Uchumi Uchwara wa Mkullo na Ndullu na ndio kiini cha kansa itayotupelekea kuwa mufilisi huku tukiwa TUMETHUBUTU, TUMEWEZA NA TUNASONGA MBELE.
Concluding Statement by the IMF Mission to Tanzania
Press Release No.11/401
November 7, 2011
........................
"An International Monetary Fund (IMF) mission, led by Mr. Peter Allum, visited Dar es Salaam during October 26–November 7, 2011 to conduct discussions for the third review under the Policy Support Instrument (PSI).[SUP]1[/SUP] The mission met with Finance Minister Mkulo, Bank of Tanzania Governor Ndulu, and other senior officials, as well as representatives of the private sector, civil society, and development partners. The mission wishes to thank the authorities for their warm hospitality, close collaboration, and the high quality of the discussions."
"At the conclusion of the mission in Dar es Salaam, Mr. Allum issued the following statement:
"Despite recent power shortages, Tanzania's economy continues to grow strongly, expanding 6.3 percent in the first half of 2011. Core inflation, measured excluding food and energy components, remains in single digits, while headline inflation has approached 17 percent (year-on-year), boosted by global energy prices, food price effects from the drought in the Horn of Africa, and the recent depreciation of the shilling. Public spending has risen as a share of gross domestic product (GDP) in recent years to deliver significant growth in local government health, education and other social programs as well as scaled up investments in roads and other infrastructures. However, overall recurrent spending has outpaced revenue and grant financing, contributing to growing fiscal deficits and a rising public debt stock."
"Under the PSI program through June 2011, the Bank of Tanzania's reserve money targets were met and foreign commercial borrowing was kept well within program limits. However, partly due to the shortfall in commercial borrowing, domestic financing of the budget was higher than planned and the target for accumulating net international reserves was missed. Structural reforms are moving forward, notably to strengthen debt management capacity.
For more information, visits
Press Release: Concluding Statement by the IMF Mission to Tanzania
Haya mleta mada uliitowa wapi hiyo habari yako ya uzushi? hiyo hapo umewekewa report ya IMF ya jana, inaonesha mambo mazuri kinaga ubaga.
Sasa mtakuwaje na forex kama hamna bidhaa mnazouza nje? Tunanunua kutoka nje hata vitu ambavyo tuna uwezo wa kuzalisha wenyewe.
We have created a dependency economy. Brazil iliweza kujikwamua baada ya kuwa na bidhaa za kuuza nje. Nakumbuka in the 70's ukinunua kiatu kizuri cha bei poa katika soko la Marekani kilikuwa kimetengenezwa Brazil. What do we have to sell on the world market? Kahawa haitoshi. I met an Australian who had been to Tanzania akaniambia alitaka kununua instant coffee, akaenda Bukoba kiwandani akawapa requirements zake. Yaani hata kama wangempa kahawa yote inayozalishwa na Instant coffeee, isingekidhi mahitaji yake, which shows kuwa soko lipo lakini changamoto ni kwetu sisi kuzalisha vya kutosha kwa mahitaji yetu na kwa soko la nje.
Faiza,
Dada yangu ushabiki saa zengine tuuweke pembeni yes Tanzania imefanikiwa kuexceed expectation of economist who predicted that our economy will grow by 6% (Uchumi umekuwa by 6.3%). Lakini kuna maneno ya kijani sijui kama umeyasoma na kuyaelewa. Labda nikuulize umefahamu vp hayo maandishi ya kijani?
Labda kama wewe mvivu wa kusoma watu wamefanya uchambuzi wa kutosha. Ukitaka kujua JK amekusanya hela nyingi au la angalia Mkapa alikusanya ngapi nayeye ngapi na uangalie inflation na devaluation. PIA UCHUMI HAUSIMAMI UNAKUWA HIVYO KODI KUONGEZEKA SI KIPIMO CHA KUONGEZA JUHUDI ZA MAKUSANYO. UKIANGALIA KISOMI UTAKUTA JK HAJAONGEZA CHOCHOTE KWENYE MAKUSANYA ILA AMEPWAYAPamoja na ushabiki, kuna tatizo lingine la msingi......humu ndani, wengi wetu sio critical and analytical thinker bali ni political thinkers!!! Economic data zinahitaji critical and reasonable thinking na ndio maana unakuta mkuu EMT anabisha kwamba makusanyo hayaongezeki huku data alizo-quote zinaonesha kuna ongezeko!!!!! Tuliosoma A-Level mwishoni mwa miaka ya 1990 na early 2000's, watakumbuka kwamba ilikuwa ni NADRA sana, tena sana mtu kukuta amepata A or B ya Economics A-Level. Ilikuwa hata ukipata C, basi fahamu utakuwa upo kwenye 10 best students TZ !!!!! The reason behind, kulikuwa na paper 2 wakati ule(am not sure abt cku hizi). Paper I ni paper ambayo ilihitaji tu kusoma madaftari na kukariri na Paper II ilikuwa ni paper iliyohitaji zaidi critical and reasonable thinking kuliko kusoma madaftari. Kwa critical and reasonable thinker, angeweza kufanya na kufaulu Paper II hata bila ya kusoma lakini paper I ilikuwa ni lazima usome!!! More often than not, watu walikuwa wanababua sana (na kupata hata A) kwenye Paper I; lakini ilipokuja Paper II, A zote zingeweza kuwa dropped to C, or even D!!!! Economics, is all about critical and reasonable thinking, otherwise tutaishia ku-define economy in political persepectives ambazo most likely zinakuwa biased!! Lipumba, ni among the Greatest Economist in the country, lakini unatakiwa kuangalia jukwaa analotumia pale anapozungumzia masuala ya uchumi! Is it political or academic/proffesional platform!!! Atakapokuwa kwenye political platform lazima atakuwa bias as compared to professional platform.
Labda kama wewe mvivu wa kusoma watu wamefanya uchambuzi wa kutosha. Ukitaka kujua JK amekusanya hela nyingi au la angalia Mkapa alikusanya ngapi nayeye ngapi na uangalie inflation na devaluation. PIA UCHUMI HAUSIMAMI UNAKUWA HIVYO KODI KUONGEZEKA SI KIPIMO CHA KUONGEZA JUHUDI ZA MAKUSANYO. UKIANGALIA KISOMI UTAKUTA JK HAJAONGEZA CHOCHOTE KWENYE MAKUSANYA ILA AMEPWAYA
Uchumi ni mzuri kwa sasa na kuna kila hali bidii ikiongezeka uchumi utaongezeka takwimu ni nzuri, magwanda wanataka kutuharibia uchumi ili wapate kisingizio lakini hilo tumesha liona na tunalidhibiti.
Umekurupuka,pointi yangu ilikuwa ni kwamba,licha ya mapato kukusanywa zaidi,bado hiyo foreign aid ambayo hatujui huwa inakuja in what terms ie as to whether if it is grants only or if there is some in terms of low interest loans and or some other grants with plenty of strings attached.Ama kweli, onyesha na kabla ya kuchukuwa nchi Kikwete ilikuaje? hiyo ulioonesha tu haina haja ya kuelezewa inakusuta
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Re: IMF wathibitisha, Serikali imeishiwa!
[TABLE="class: cms_table_cms_table"]
[TR]
[TD]Period
[/TD]
[TD]Domestic Revenue (Tsh)
[/TD]
[TD]Foreign Aid (Tsh)
[/TD]
[TD]Overall Budget (Tsh)
[/TD]
[TD]AID (Ushoga) as % of total budget
[/TD]
[TD]Domestic Revenue as % of total budget
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2007 – 2008
[/TD]
[TD]3.5 trillion
[/TD]
[TD]2.5 trillion
[/TD]
[TD]6.1 trillion
[/TD]
[TD]41 %
[/TD]
[TD]57 %
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2008 – 2009
[/TD]
[TD]4.8 trillion
[/TD]
[TD]2.4 trillion
[/TD]
[TD]7.2 trillion
[/TD]
[TD]33 %
[/TD]
[TD]66 %
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2009 – 2010
[/TD]
[TD]6.3 trillion
[/TD]
[TD]3.1 trillion
[/TD]
[TD]9.5 trillion
[/TD]
[TD]33 %
[/TD]
[TD]66 %
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2010 – 2011
[/TD]
[TD]8.3 trillion
[/TD]
[TD]3.2 trillion
[/TD]
[TD]11.6trillion
[/TD]
[TD]28 %
[/TD]
[TD]72 %
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2011 - 2012
[/TD]
[TD]6.7 trillion
[/TD]
[TD]3.9 trillion
[/TD]
[TD]13.5 trillion
[/TD]
[TD]28 %
[/TD]
[TD]49 %
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[TABLE="class: cms_table"]
[TR]
[TD]2008 – 2009
[/TD]
[TD]4.8 trillion
[/TD]
[TD]2.4 trillion
[/TD]
[TD]7.2 trillion
[/TD]
[TD]33 %
[/TD]
[TD]66 %
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2009 – 2010
[/TD]
[TD]6.3 trillion
[/TD]
[TD]3.1 trillion
[/TD]
[TD]9.5 trillion
[/TD]
[TD]33 %
[/TD]
[TD]66 %
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
kweli kaka hata mimi sijawahi soma uchumi hata definition yake siijui ila najua haya yafuatayo:-Unajua Pasco, uchumi uchwara wa Tanzania hauhitaji mtu kuwa mchumi kujua nini kinaendelea kwani hata hesabu za total budget mwaka jana zilikosewa ikabidi zikajumlishwe upya; does that need an economist au just a rational thinker pasco.