Nauliza benki binafsi haziwezi kwenda BoT kukopa fedha za serikali? Kwa nini hawataki kukopa BoT?
Na washawasha!
Acha kuchekesha watu wewe... hiyo pesa serikali wataitoa wapi hadi waweze kukopesha mabenki?! Hivi ni kweli hamfahamu au ushabiki wa kisiasa ndo unawafanya msifahamu?! Yaani kwavile serikali imehamisha deposits zake from commercial banks to BoT ndo mnadhani hivi sasa serikali itakuwa na mapesa kedekede?!
Very funny!
Twende taratibu! Forget at least for the next 5 years eti serikali watakuwa na uwezo wa kukopesha mabenki... UWEZO HUO HAWATAKUWA NAO!! Government deposit ya maana from commercial banks to BoT ni pesa za Mifuko ya Hifadhi ya Jamii pamoja na mifuko kama vile NHIF! Hii pesa bado ni mifuko husika ndo watakuwa na control kubwa zaidi ya pesa zao kwa sababu, in order to remain potential, wanatakiwa kufanya investments na sio kutoa pesa kwa serikali! Serikali ikitaka hizi pesa LAZIMA warudishe kwa RIBA kwa sababu sio za serikali! Hata pesa za taasisi kama TPA, TANAPA and the like... si kwamba serikali watakuwa wanajichotea tu!! Hizo ni mamlaka kamili ambazo zinatakiwa kujiendesha kwa mapato yake!
Narudia, serikali hawana ubavu wa kumkopesha yeyote bali ni wao ndio wataendelea kukopa toka kwenye mabenki ya biashara na taasisi zake hususani mifuko ya hifadhi ya kijamii!
Hili suala watu wanalikuza kwavile wengi wetu sio watafiti! Serikali kuondoa deposits zake kutateteresha deposits from commercial banks lakini si kwamba mabenki yatapata hasara kwa sababu tu taasisi zake inahamishia pesa BoT! Isitoshe, sidhani kama government deposits zimefika 10% of total deposits for any bank!
Nimeshindwa kuisoma vizuri hiyo attached statement hapo juu... nimemuomba
Good People atoe 2 separate docs lakini hajafanya hivyo! Anyway,
jzac, nimeona attachment yako kwenye post [HASHTAG]#345[/HASHTAG]... unaweza kunisaidia full report au link? Nimetafuta kwenye CRDB Website sijaipata!
But all in all, hebu angalia hiki kipengele:
Macho yangu yananionesha kwamba kwenye D: SELECTED FINANCIAL CONDITION INDICATORS, Gross Loans and Advances to Total Deposits (3rd entry) ni 85%... correct me if I am wrong.
Sasa kama nipo sahihi ni kwamba Loans To Deposit (LTD) ratio ni 85%; hii maana yake ni kwamba, at any given point in time, CRDB wana liquidity ya 15%. Ideal LTD ni 80 - 90%. Hii maana yake ni kwamba, pamoja na hiyo government withdrawal, bado wana uwezo wa ku-issue few more loans na wakabaki vizuri in terms of liquidity! Post ya
jzac hapo juu inaonesha benki ina total deposit ya 4.1 Trillion! Kama ndivyo, 15% ya 4.1 Trillion ni zaidi ya 600 as liquid asset!!!
Na ukisoma financial statements za benki zingine, sidhani kama kuna yoyote ambayo imefikisha angalau 80% as LTD. NMB wanacheza na less than 75%... tena hata hiyo 70% kama wamefika labda sasa!
Hitimisho la yote hayo ni kwamba, bado ni serikali ndiyo itakuwa inapiga magoti kwa mabenki badala ya mabenki kwa serikali... serikali hawana pesa hiyo! Leo hii ukiona mabenki yanaterereka kwa namna moja au nyingine basi ni kutetereka kutakotokana na maamuzi mengine ya serikali! Kwa mfano, sio siri tena kwamba growth of SMEs imekumbwa na msukosuko! Hii itasababisha ongezeko la Non-Performing Loans (NPL) kama inavyoonekana kwenye Quarter ended June 30, 2016 ambapo NPL to Total Loans ilikuwa 11% from 6.1% June 30, 2015. Kwahiyo, hii ndiyo hatari inayowanyemelea. But similar to that, "rate" ya utoaji wa mikopo mipya inaweza kupungua due to decline in new businesses. Sasa kwavile biashara kubwa ya mabenki ni lending, growth rate of interest from lending inaweza kupungua ingawaje haimaanishi kwamba interest as a whole nayo itapungua.