US Election Coverage 2008
- Thread starter Game Theory
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Nyani Ngabu
Platinum Member
- May 15, 2006
- 92,252
- 113,647
Aaah kaka na wewe sasa vipi? Yaani unaona akim-endorse Mama ni kumkomoa Obama? Mbona hukusema hivyo pale Bichwa na Sura ndefu walivyom-endorse Obama kuwa na wao wanamkomoa Mama? I guess yamekuwa ya kukomoana tena....
Icadon
JF-Expert Member
- Mar 21, 2007
- 3,581
- 184
Niambie sababu kubwa itakayomfanya amuendorse mama baada ya kumpaka siku za nyuma ama tushasahau "She is an agent of statu quo"...same dude wakati anarun 2004 alikuwa anapreach Hope is on the way sasa leo anageuza mgongo ebo(nimeiba kwa YNIM)!!!
Makes me believe jamaa ni indecisive and not a leader...ndio maana anapreach mambo ya kusaidia maskini kesho yake anakwenda kupata Hair cut ya 400 Dollars.
Element za rangi zimeanza?
Nyani Ngabu
Platinum Member
- May 15, 2006
- 92,252
- 113,647
I guess hata iweje mwaka huu suala la rangi litakuwa ishu tu. Nasubiri siku atakayoshindwa Obama na McCain...baadhi ya watu hawatakubali kushindwa na mchawi atakuwa race...
William J. Malecela
R I P
- Apr 27, 2006
- 26,588
- 10,375
Wakuu Ohio na Texas, ndio zitakazo amua nani atakuwa mgombea, hawa wazungu ni vinyonga hawa, kwa hiyo tuweni fair na mtizamo wetu kuhusu huu uchaguzi, maana kwa wazungu clinton bado yuko live ni baada ya hizo state mbili, ndio utakuwa msema kweli,
in the meantime wazungu wanaweza kufanya maajabu mengi sana wakuu, maana sasa hivi bado wanatafakari jinsi mke wa Jaluo atakavyompokea Malkia wa UK, kule White House, ikisha sink in hiyo utaona watakayofanya, tusubirini wakuu ngoma bado hii!
Ingawa Jaluo so far anatisha kama ngoma!
in the meantime wazungu wanaweza kufanya maajabu mengi sana wakuu, maana sasa hivi bado wanatafakari jinsi mke wa Jaluo atakavyompokea Malkia wa UK, kule White House, ikisha sink in hiyo utaona watakayofanya, tusubirini wakuu ngoma bado hii!
Ingawa Jaluo so far anatisha kama ngoma!
Nyani Ngabu
Platinum Member
- May 15, 2006
- 92,252
- 113,647
Bwahahahahahahahahaha....nimesikia eti Obama ame-plagiarize economic plan yake....I guess more to come in the coming days
Na kabla hamjaanza kumshambulia "My Girl".......hii imetoka upande wa pili...
Na kabla hamjaanza kumshambulia "My Girl".......hii imetoka upande wa pili...
Icadon
JF-Expert Member
- Mar 21, 2007
- 3,581
- 184
unazungumzia hii hapa au?
On the same day that President Bush has signed an economic stimulus plan, Barack Obama is outlining his own plan to spur the economy.
In Wisconsin, Obama said that as president he would spend 210 billion dollars to create jobs in construction and environmental industries.
Of that amount, 150 billion would create so-called "green collar" jobs to develop more environmentally-friendly energy sources.
The other 60 billion would go to a National Infrastructure Reinvestment Bank. It would be used to rebuild highways, bridges, airports and other public projects.
Even as Republicans promote an "Obama Spend-O-Meter" online to portray him as a tax-and-spend liberal, Obama says the money would come from ending the Iraq war, cutting tax breaks for corporations, and raising taxes on big earners.
Icadon
JF-Expert Member
- Mar 21, 2007
- 3,581
- 184
Bado Carville na Begala kuswitch sides wewe ngoja tuu...
Ila sasa tunakoelekea ndio ubaguzi utashika hatamu...
The man who served as national manager of former President Clinton's 1992 campaign endorsed Sen. Barack Obama on Wednesday. David Wilhelm, who led the campaign and later became chairman of the Democratic National Committee, said Obama had the unique ability to encourage cooperation as a 65-percent president after the divisive years of a 51-percent majority.
He was referring to the notion that Obama could govern the country with the support of a large coalition, as opposed to more polarized support for President Bush.
Wilhelm is a superdelegate who was previously uncommitted in the race. His endorsement helps Obama in the race for delegates, in which he pulled ahead after Tuesday's sweeps of primaries in Virginia, Maryland and the District of Columbia. Clinton remains considerably ahead in superdelegates, which are party officials, elected officials and others who can vote however they choose at the nominating convention.
If the race for pledged delegates based on outcomes in caucuses and primaries across the country remains tight, superdelegates could decide the nomination.
Obama leads the delegate race with 1,224 to 1,198 to Clinton, according to the latest count by The Associated Press.
Persuading superdelegates to back Obama will be a crucial role for Wilhelm in the Obama campaign, he said.
"The only reason this race appears to be closer than it actually is is the number of superdelegates that bought into Senator Clinton's inevitability early too early, it seems," Wilhelm said.
The Clinton campaign predicted Wednesday it would be in a virtual tie with Obama in delegates after March 4 primaries in Ohio, Texas, Vermont and Rhode Island, separated by no more than 25 delegates.
Wilhelm said the Democrats could never win a contest about experience over Sen. John McCain, the likely Republican nominee, but could win with Obama an election that was framed around change.
Ila sasa tunakoelekea ndio ubaguzi utashika hatamu...
The man who served as national manager of former President Clinton's 1992 campaign endorsed Sen. Barack Obama on Wednesday. David Wilhelm, who led the campaign and later became chairman of the Democratic National Committee, said Obama had the unique ability to encourage cooperation as a 65-percent president after the divisive years of a 51-percent majority.
He was referring to the notion that Obama could govern the country with the support of a large coalition, as opposed to more polarized support for President Bush.
Wilhelm is a superdelegate who was previously uncommitted in the race. His endorsement helps Obama in the race for delegates, in which he pulled ahead after Tuesday's sweeps of primaries in Virginia, Maryland and the District of Columbia. Clinton remains considerably ahead in superdelegates, which are party officials, elected officials and others who can vote however they choose at the nominating convention.
If the race for pledged delegates based on outcomes in caucuses and primaries across the country remains tight, superdelegates could decide the nomination.
Obama leads the delegate race with 1,224 to 1,198 to Clinton, according to the latest count by The Associated Press.
Persuading superdelegates to back Obama will be a crucial role for Wilhelm in the Obama campaign, he said.
"The only reason this race appears to be closer than it actually is is the number of superdelegates that bought into Senator Clinton's inevitability early too early, it seems," Wilhelm said.
The Clinton campaign predicted Wednesday it would be in a virtual tie with Obama in delegates after March 4 primaries in Ohio, Texas, Vermont and Rhode Island, separated by no more than 25 delegates.
Wilhelm said the Democrats could never win a contest about experience over Sen. John McCain, the likely Republican nominee, but could win with Obama an election that was framed around change.
YNIM
JF-Expert Member
- Aug 29, 2007
- 2,219
- 62
kaka,
wakianza hizo za mudslinging wamekwisha! hii itakuwa "all out and bloody war." watasubiriwa waanze kurusha madongo, then bingwa will hit 'em back harder!!..........it will get ugly, no doubt. but nobody will be allowed to "swift boat" this campaign. kama unabisha subiri, sema watu wanaona noma tu, kisije kibabu kikafia kwenye campaign trail ikaonekana Obama kaua!! LOL.
Nyani Ngabu
Platinum Member
- May 15, 2006
- 92,252
- 113,647
Hahahahaha...kisije kikafia kwenye kampeni sio? Hapo umenichekesha....lakini ukumbuke kibabu kiko tough kwelikweli...kili-survive miaka 5 ya mateso kwenye mapori ya Vietnam....so kimezoea mikikimikiki....lol
Icadon
JF-Expert Member
- Mar 21, 2007
- 3,581
- 184
ha ha unakumbuka mambo ya Bob Dole kudondoka wakati wa kampeni...?
Wewe umenichekesha sana duh!!
Icadon
JF-Expert Member
- Mar 21, 2007
- 3,581
- 184
1. THE DEMOCRATS
The Race is Tied Now, but Obama Will Win
I believe that Barack Obama will win the Democratic nomination for president.
Since 2004, I have predicted that Hillary Clinton would be the inevitable nominee, but I now believe that she will most likely lose to Obama.
After the Maine caucuses on Sunday, February 10th, Obama leads Hillary by three delegates, 1134 for Obama and 1131 for Hillary, according to CBS News. And the gap between them is going to widen.
Hillary has shown an inability to win states without large immigrant and Latino populations. Since 75% of all Hispanics are in five states which have only a third of the nation's population (Cal, NY, Ill, Fla, Tex), the other quarter are lightly distributed around the other 45 states, rarely constituting more than a tenth of their population. Not enough to give Hillary an edge.
Based on their performance so far, here's how I stack up the remaining primaries and caucuses:
2/12 Virginia (101)* Obama by 10
2/12 Maryland (99)** Obama by 10
2/12 DC (38)* Obama by 15
2/19 Wisconsin (92)* Obama by 20
2/19 Hawaii (29)** Obama by 5
3/4 Texas (228)* Hillary by 30
3/4 Ohio (161)* Obama by 20
3/4 Rhode Island 32)* Hillary by 5
3/4 Vermont ( 23)* even
3/8 Wyoming (18)** Obama by 5
3/8 Mississippi (40)* Obama by 10
4/22 Pennsylvania (188)* Obama by 30
5/6 North Carolina (134)* Obama by 40
5/6 Indiana (84)* Obama by 15
5/13 West Virginia (39)* Hillary by 10
5/20 Oregon (65)* Obama by 20
5/20 Kentucky (60)** Obama by 20
6/3 Montana (24)* Obama by 5
6/3 South Dakota (23)* Obama by 10
6/7 PuertoRico (63)* Hillary by 30
* primary state
** caucus state
This process nets out to an Obama margin among elected delegates of 236. Hillary's current lead among super delegates puts her at a pace to win them by about 160, not enough to offset the Obama advantage.
I also seriously doubt, knowing the nature of the political species, that super delegates, mostly Congressmen, Senators, and Governors, are going to vote all that differently from the constituents who elected them. IOUs in politics do not require one to commit suicide.
Obama will, as these predictions suggest, add delegates upon delegates until he slowly but surely wins the nomination.
Here's why Obama will win:
Hillary Depends on Immigrants and Latinos
Hillary won California and Arizona even though she tied among whites and lost blacks because she carried Latinos by 2:1. With Hispanics making up one–third of the vote there, her edge among Latinos propelled her to victory. She also did well with Asians and, especially in New York, New Jersey, and Massachusetts, among immigrants.Meanwhile, Obama was winning in states with few Latinos, carrying Idaho, Utah, Minnesota, Missouri, Alabama, Georgia, North Dakota, Alaska, and Kansas.
But with Hispanics concentrated in just five states, only in Texas have they yet to play their role.
Hillary's strength among Latinos is probably due to Bill's record on NAFTA, the Mexican Tequila Crisis bailout, and the FALN pardons. Obama might be able to make inroads by running ads touting his support for drivers licenses for illegals (which Hillary, at latest count, opposes).
But with most of the forthcoming primaries and caucuses in the heartland now that the coasts have largely voted, Obama has a clear edge.
Independents and Republicans Will Enter Democratic Primary to Torpedo Hillary
Hillary's partisanship and the unique rancor that she arouses in Independents and Republicans will now probably come back to bite her. No one is falling for the phony – and temporary – alliances with Congressional Republicans. In many of the upcoming state primaries – like Texas – anyone can vote in either primary. Now that McCain is all but crowned as the Republican nominee, there is no reason for them to turnout in the GOP contest. All the attention will focus on the Democrats and we can expect them to cross over in the hundreds of thousands to vote against their favorite villain.
In Texas, where hostility to Hillary runs especially high in Republican circles, Mrs. Clinton is doubtless banking on a large Hispanic vote to power her to victory. But the crossovers may be so numerous that they nullify her advantage and make it hard for her to win Texas with its second largest block of delegates at the Convention.
Hillary is Running Low on Money
Obama is outraising Hillary because he bet on the Internet for his fund raising, while she relied on large donors and PACs. About half of Hillary's money in the fourth quarter of 2008 came from donors whose contributions maxed them out, making it illegal for them to give more. But only 17% of Obama's contributors were maxed out donors. By contrast, half of Obama's donors were contributors giving less than $200. Only 17% of Hillary's contributors fell into this category.
So while Hillary has to go back to her rolodex to see if there are any fat cats she ignored the first time around, Obama has merely to aim his mouse and fire to reload his war chest. It is a case of the machine gun vs. the breech loading rifle. With fewer maxed out donors and twice as many contributors, look for Obama to widen his supremacy in fund raising as February and March roll on.
The greater cash will count heavily in the half of all states that have yet to vote begin to do so. It will let Obama advertise in them all for longer periods than Hillary can. The effect will add to the week after week lead that Obama will probably pile up as the caucuses and primaries are held.
In Louisiana, where Obama ran ads and Clinton did not (because her campaign was broke), he beat her by 2–1. Exit polls showed a huge percentage of his voters saw his ads.
Obama's College Kids
Exit polls have repeatedly shown that Obama does expecially well among voters under 24. With turnout a key factor, his ability to mobilize on campuses and turn out the college vote will stand him in good stead. A friend reports from Minnesota that the polling site near the college campus had to stay open two hours after its official close to let kids who were already on line in to vote. And Obama carries young voters by 3 or 4 to one. For the first time since the voting age was lowered to 18, college students are making a real difference in political outcomes.
The Race Issue is Dead
Obama's convincing wins in states with virtually no black population have reversed the impression left by South Carolina of racial polarization. The Clintons now have the worst of both worlds: They suffered repudiation for invoking race to win the election and now race has faded as a factor in supporting her candidacy ( a development for which she, of course, neither deserves nor gets credit)
Hillary Has Nothing New To Say
Her campaign themes of being "ready on Day One to hit the ground running" and of her experience in dealing with foreign leaders have fallen flat in the face of Obama's battle for change. It is evident that she has nothing new to say.
And she has no new negatives to throw at Obama. Obviously, if she had dirt on him, she would have used it in the leadup to Super Tuesday, so she probably has none. And don't think she and her operatives haven't been searching in every dark corner to find something.
And she seems incapable of developing new campaign themes. Obama, by contrast, is only now getting full traction from his message of repudiating lobbyists and special interests as his financial base increasingly centers around small online donors and hers' around maxing out special interests. Obama, plainly a better speaker, also has more to say while Hillary's prosaic rhetoric and annoying voice drains whatever excitement there once was out of her campaign.
This contrast was in evidence on Saturday night at the Virginia Jefferson–Jackson Dinner, where both spoke. Mrs. Clinton approached the stage with polite applause, read a boring speech from a pad, and left to chants of OH BAM A! OH BAM A!
In marked contrast, Obama was surrounded by supporters and admirers who continued the chant. His uplifting, refreshing, and inspiring speech about the importance of hope roused the crowd as he politely – but pointedly criticized Hillary's cynicism.
That tangible difference in style, in message, in support, and in inspiration will repeat itself throughout the next few weeks.
But What About Super Delegates?
Hillary's possible lead in delegates will now be exclusively based on a possible advantage among super delegates – ex–officio delegates who hold their positions due to public or party office and who are free to back whomever they choose. Since she has spent six years giving funds to public and party officials in the hopes of getting their votes at the Convention, her lead among these insiders is substantial.
But can Hillary get nominated by super delegates even when the elected delegates back Obama? For the Democratic Party to go this route would be to risk a repetition of the tear gassed streets of Chicago in 1968 outside their convention hall.
By convention time, Obama will probably have a significant lead among popularly chosen delegates. His lead may be so great as to make the votes of super delegates irrelevant. But if these unelected delegates obfuscate the clearly expressed will of the voters by backing Hillary, there will be hell to pay and they know it. Since many are public officials – Congressmen, Senators or Governors – they will not lightly risk wholesale rebellion against them in their home states and districts from Obama loyalists who want revenge for being cheated out of the nomination.
Obama will begin stressing how inappropriate it would be for super delegates to nullify the will of the voters and his comments are likely to string a responsive chord among party voters and elites alike.
One more factor – Harold Ickes is apparently in charge of rounding up the superdelegates for Hillary. This could really clinch it for Obama. With Harold's thug–like demeanor and absolute lack of any charm whatsoever, his targets are more likely to run screaming.
And What About Michigan and Florida?
These two truant–states where punished by the Democratic National Committee for holding their primaries before Super Tuesday. Candidates were instructed not to campaign there and, in deference to the party's admonition, Edwards and Obama both withdrew their names from the ballot in Michigan and stayed out of Florida. Hillary, however, stayed on the Michigan ballot and won the primary against a slate of uncommitted delegates and campaigned in Florida in violation of the party's injunction. She won Florida by 2:1, although the turnout was significantly smaller than that in the Republican Primary because most Democrats stayed home.
Now Hillary will likely challenge the convention credentials process and ask that both state delegations, Hillary delegates all, be seated. Her efforts will cause a huge furor as the convention approaches.
The most likely and most just solution would be to hold new primaries in these two states, particularly if they would make a difference in the outcome (which they probably would). The Democratic Party has ordered such solutions in the past and may do so again.
But to merely seat the almost unanimously pro–Hillary delegations would be an offense against fairness. In a real primary, Obama would have doubtless won his share of delegates in Florida and might have won outright in Michigan.
How the Credentials Committee stacks up will have a major bearing on the outcome of this fight. But any disagreement must be referred to the Convention floor where the two states could not vote while the Convention deliberates on their right to be seated. Still, some pro–Hillary super delegates might feel free to back her on the procedural motion while bowing to the will of their home state voters in supporting Obama on the first ballot. This might be enough to seat these two delegations with their top heavy Hillary votes.
Changing Campaign Managers Won't Make Any Difference
Hillary announced on Sunday that she was dumping Patti Solis Doyle, her long time aide–de–camp and her Campaign Manager since her announcement last January. In her place will be Maggie Williams, Hillary's former chief–of–staff in the White House. This change will make no difference in the campaign.
No one believed that Solis Doyle made policy, decided strategy, or did anything but make the trains run on time.
Maggie Williams will do the same. She is a very nice person, loyal to Hillary, but without any political experience at all. She's never been involved in a campaign before and this is not the time to learn.
2. REPUBLICANS
Forget About the Right. McCain Must Move to the Center
McCain is under heavy pressure from the noisy forces on the economic right of the Republican Party to move in a conservative direction and do penance for his liberal apostasy. But it is precisely his support on issues like climate change, environment, post–Enron reforms, regulating tobacco, immigration reform, banning waterboarding, the patient's bill of rights, and campaign finance reform that attracts Independents and Democrats to his cause and make him electable.
If Obama is the Democratic candidate, he will get all of Hillary's votes. Her supporters are dogmatic Democrats who will not sway from the party line. He might have difficulty getting all of the single women out to vote, but those that do will vote straight Democratic tickets.
But if Hillary wins, don't look for all of Obama's support to switch to her so easily, even if she puts Obama on her ticket for Vice President. Particularly if she uses super delegates or a credentials fight over Florida and Michigan to win the nomination, the bitterness that such tactics will leave in their wake will be so profound as to make it very hard for her to pick up Obama voters. The poisonous atmosphere of 1968 will be back when hatred of Johnson and distrust of Humphrey led many liberals to vote for Nixon.
And McCain is no Nixon. He has always been the Democrats' favorite Republican (just as Lieberman has been the Republicans' favorite Democrat).;
Now is the time for McCain to show that he deserves Democratic and Independent support by moving to the center.
The right wing has no place to go. And, particularly if Hillary is the Democratic candidate, they will be standing in line in the rain for hours before the polls open to be sure to vote against her. It's the center McCain needs to win.
Huckabee's Next Move
Under the winner–take–all rules of most Republican primaries, John McCain will doubtless win the nomination by carrying most northeastern states. But Huckabee will score win after win in the South, border areas, and the Midwest where his evangelical base will be strong. McCain voters will tend to stay home or, where possible, vote in the Democratic primary to stop Hillary, while Huckabee's people will brave winds and fire to vote for their guy.
As a result, Huckabee will probably show up at the convention with a quarter or a third of the delegates and he will embarrass McCain by beating him in state after state after state all throughout the winter and spring. McCain can't make Huckabee withdraw (except by offering him the VP) especially as his rival begins winning states, as he did on Saturday in Kansas and Louisiana. If Huckabee was able to carry five Super Tuesday states even though he spent no money (and he came close to carrying two more), his revived fortunes are likely to animate his candidacy still further.
Eventually, McCain will no longer be able to ignore Huckabee and must make some gesture to him. My bet is that it's the vice presidential nomination.
The Race is Tied Now, but Obama Will Win
I believe that Barack Obama will win the Democratic nomination for president.
Since 2004, I have predicted that Hillary Clinton would be the inevitable nominee, but I now believe that she will most likely lose to Obama.
After the Maine caucuses on Sunday, February 10th, Obama leads Hillary by three delegates, 1134 for Obama and 1131 for Hillary, according to CBS News. And the gap between them is going to widen.
Hillary has shown an inability to win states without large immigrant and Latino populations. Since 75% of all Hispanics are in five states which have only a third of the nation's population (Cal, NY, Ill, Fla, Tex), the other quarter are lightly distributed around the other 45 states, rarely constituting more than a tenth of their population. Not enough to give Hillary an edge.
Based on their performance so far, here's how I stack up the remaining primaries and caucuses:
2/12 Virginia (101)* Obama by 10
2/12 Maryland (99)** Obama by 10
2/12 DC (38)* Obama by 15
2/19 Wisconsin (92)* Obama by 20
2/19 Hawaii (29)** Obama by 5
3/4 Texas (228)* Hillary by 30
3/4 Ohio (161)* Obama by 20
3/4 Rhode Island 32)* Hillary by 5
3/4 Vermont ( 23)* even
3/8 Wyoming (18)** Obama by 5
3/8 Mississippi (40)* Obama by 10
4/22 Pennsylvania (188)* Obama by 30
5/6 North Carolina (134)* Obama by 40
5/6 Indiana (84)* Obama by 15
5/13 West Virginia (39)* Hillary by 10
5/20 Oregon (65)* Obama by 20
5/20 Kentucky (60)** Obama by 20
6/3 Montana (24)* Obama by 5
6/3 South Dakota (23)* Obama by 10
6/7 PuertoRico (63)* Hillary by 30
* primary state
** caucus state
This process nets out to an Obama margin among elected delegates of 236. Hillary's current lead among super delegates puts her at a pace to win them by about 160, not enough to offset the Obama advantage.
I also seriously doubt, knowing the nature of the political species, that super delegates, mostly Congressmen, Senators, and Governors, are going to vote all that differently from the constituents who elected them. IOUs in politics do not require one to commit suicide.
Obama will, as these predictions suggest, add delegates upon delegates until he slowly but surely wins the nomination.
Here's why Obama will win:
Hillary Depends on Immigrants and Latinos
Hillary won California and Arizona even though she tied among whites and lost blacks because she carried Latinos by 2:1. With Hispanics making up one–third of the vote there, her edge among Latinos propelled her to victory. She also did well with Asians and, especially in New York, New Jersey, and Massachusetts, among immigrants.Meanwhile, Obama was winning in states with few Latinos, carrying Idaho, Utah, Minnesota, Missouri, Alabama, Georgia, North Dakota, Alaska, and Kansas.
But with Hispanics concentrated in just five states, only in Texas have they yet to play their role.
Hillary's strength among Latinos is probably due to Bill's record on NAFTA, the Mexican Tequila Crisis bailout, and the FALN pardons. Obama might be able to make inroads by running ads touting his support for drivers licenses for illegals (which Hillary, at latest count, opposes).
But with most of the forthcoming primaries and caucuses in the heartland now that the coasts have largely voted, Obama has a clear edge.
Independents and Republicans Will Enter Democratic Primary to Torpedo Hillary
Hillary's partisanship and the unique rancor that she arouses in Independents and Republicans will now probably come back to bite her. No one is falling for the phony – and temporary – alliances with Congressional Republicans. In many of the upcoming state primaries – like Texas – anyone can vote in either primary. Now that McCain is all but crowned as the Republican nominee, there is no reason for them to turnout in the GOP contest. All the attention will focus on the Democrats and we can expect them to cross over in the hundreds of thousands to vote against their favorite villain.
In Texas, where hostility to Hillary runs especially high in Republican circles, Mrs. Clinton is doubtless banking on a large Hispanic vote to power her to victory. But the crossovers may be so numerous that they nullify her advantage and make it hard for her to win Texas with its second largest block of delegates at the Convention.
Hillary is Running Low on Money
Obama is outraising Hillary because he bet on the Internet for his fund raising, while she relied on large donors and PACs. About half of Hillary's money in the fourth quarter of 2008 came from donors whose contributions maxed them out, making it illegal for them to give more. But only 17% of Obama's contributors were maxed out donors. By contrast, half of Obama's donors were contributors giving less than $200. Only 17% of Hillary's contributors fell into this category.
So while Hillary has to go back to her rolodex to see if there are any fat cats she ignored the first time around, Obama has merely to aim his mouse and fire to reload his war chest. It is a case of the machine gun vs. the breech loading rifle. With fewer maxed out donors and twice as many contributors, look for Obama to widen his supremacy in fund raising as February and March roll on.
The greater cash will count heavily in the half of all states that have yet to vote begin to do so. It will let Obama advertise in them all for longer periods than Hillary can. The effect will add to the week after week lead that Obama will probably pile up as the caucuses and primaries are held.
In Louisiana, where Obama ran ads and Clinton did not (because her campaign was broke), he beat her by 2–1. Exit polls showed a huge percentage of his voters saw his ads.
Obama's College Kids
Exit polls have repeatedly shown that Obama does expecially well among voters under 24. With turnout a key factor, his ability to mobilize on campuses and turn out the college vote will stand him in good stead. A friend reports from Minnesota that the polling site near the college campus had to stay open two hours after its official close to let kids who were already on line in to vote. And Obama carries young voters by 3 or 4 to one. For the first time since the voting age was lowered to 18, college students are making a real difference in political outcomes.
The Race Issue is Dead
Obama's convincing wins in states with virtually no black population have reversed the impression left by South Carolina of racial polarization. The Clintons now have the worst of both worlds: They suffered repudiation for invoking race to win the election and now race has faded as a factor in supporting her candidacy ( a development for which she, of course, neither deserves nor gets credit)
Hillary Has Nothing New To Say
Her campaign themes of being "ready on Day One to hit the ground running" and of her experience in dealing with foreign leaders have fallen flat in the face of Obama's battle for change. It is evident that she has nothing new to say.
And she has no new negatives to throw at Obama. Obviously, if she had dirt on him, she would have used it in the leadup to Super Tuesday, so she probably has none. And don't think she and her operatives haven't been searching in every dark corner to find something.
And she seems incapable of developing new campaign themes. Obama, by contrast, is only now getting full traction from his message of repudiating lobbyists and special interests as his financial base increasingly centers around small online donors and hers' around maxing out special interests. Obama, plainly a better speaker, also has more to say while Hillary's prosaic rhetoric and annoying voice drains whatever excitement there once was out of her campaign.
This contrast was in evidence on Saturday night at the Virginia Jefferson–Jackson Dinner, where both spoke. Mrs. Clinton approached the stage with polite applause, read a boring speech from a pad, and left to chants of OH BAM A! OH BAM A!
In marked contrast, Obama was surrounded by supporters and admirers who continued the chant. His uplifting, refreshing, and inspiring speech about the importance of hope roused the crowd as he politely – but pointedly criticized Hillary's cynicism.
That tangible difference in style, in message, in support, and in inspiration will repeat itself throughout the next few weeks.
But What About Super Delegates?
Hillary's possible lead in delegates will now be exclusively based on a possible advantage among super delegates – ex–officio delegates who hold their positions due to public or party office and who are free to back whomever they choose. Since she has spent six years giving funds to public and party officials in the hopes of getting their votes at the Convention, her lead among these insiders is substantial.
But can Hillary get nominated by super delegates even when the elected delegates back Obama? For the Democratic Party to go this route would be to risk a repetition of the tear gassed streets of Chicago in 1968 outside their convention hall.
By convention time, Obama will probably have a significant lead among popularly chosen delegates. His lead may be so great as to make the votes of super delegates irrelevant. But if these unelected delegates obfuscate the clearly expressed will of the voters by backing Hillary, there will be hell to pay and they know it. Since many are public officials – Congressmen, Senators or Governors – they will not lightly risk wholesale rebellion against them in their home states and districts from Obama loyalists who want revenge for being cheated out of the nomination.
Obama will begin stressing how inappropriate it would be for super delegates to nullify the will of the voters and his comments are likely to string a responsive chord among party voters and elites alike.
One more factor – Harold Ickes is apparently in charge of rounding up the superdelegates for Hillary. This could really clinch it for Obama. With Harold's thug–like demeanor and absolute lack of any charm whatsoever, his targets are more likely to run screaming.
And What About Michigan and Florida?
These two truant–states where punished by the Democratic National Committee for holding their primaries before Super Tuesday. Candidates were instructed not to campaign there and, in deference to the party's admonition, Edwards and Obama both withdrew their names from the ballot in Michigan and stayed out of Florida. Hillary, however, stayed on the Michigan ballot and won the primary against a slate of uncommitted delegates and campaigned in Florida in violation of the party's injunction. She won Florida by 2:1, although the turnout was significantly smaller than that in the Republican Primary because most Democrats stayed home.
Now Hillary will likely challenge the convention credentials process and ask that both state delegations, Hillary delegates all, be seated. Her efforts will cause a huge furor as the convention approaches.
The most likely and most just solution would be to hold new primaries in these two states, particularly if they would make a difference in the outcome (which they probably would). The Democratic Party has ordered such solutions in the past and may do so again.
But to merely seat the almost unanimously pro–Hillary delegations would be an offense against fairness. In a real primary, Obama would have doubtless won his share of delegates in Florida and might have won outright in Michigan.
How the Credentials Committee stacks up will have a major bearing on the outcome of this fight. But any disagreement must be referred to the Convention floor where the two states could not vote while the Convention deliberates on their right to be seated. Still, some pro–Hillary super delegates might feel free to back her on the procedural motion while bowing to the will of their home state voters in supporting Obama on the first ballot. This might be enough to seat these two delegations with their top heavy Hillary votes.
Changing Campaign Managers Won't Make Any Difference
Hillary announced on Sunday that she was dumping Patti Solis Doyle, her long time aide–de–camp and her Campaign Manager since her announcement last January. In her place will be Maggie Williams, Hillary's former chief–of–staff in the White House. This change will make no difference in the campaign.
No one believed that Solis Doyle made policy, decided strategy, or did anything but make the trains run on time.
Maggie Williams will do the same. She is a very nice person, loyal to Hillary, but without any political experience at all. She's never been involved in a campaign before and this is not the time to learn.
2. REPUBLICANS
Forget About the Right. McCain Must Move to the Center
McCain is under heavy pressure from the noisy forces on the economic right of the Republican Party to move in a conservative direction and do penance for his liberal apostasy. But it is precisely his support on issues like climate change, environment, post–Enron reforms, regulating tobacco, immigration reform, banning waterboarding, the patient's bill of rights, and campaign finance reform that attracts Independents and Democrats to his cause and make him electable.
If Obama is the Democratic candidate, he will get all of Hillary's votes. Her supporters are dogmatic Democrats who will not sway from the party line. He might have difficulty getting all of the single women out to vote, but those that do will vote straight Democratic tickets.
But if Hillary wins, don't look for all of Obama's support to switch to her so easily, even if she puts Obama on her ticket for Vice President. Particularly if she uses super delegates or a credentials fight over Florida and Michigan to win the nomination, the bitterness that such tactics will leave in their wake will be so profound as to make it very hard for her to pick up Obama voters. The poisonous atmosphere of 1968 will be back when hatred of Johnson and distrust of Humphrey led many liberals to vote for Nixon.
And McCain is no Nixon. He has always been the Democrats' favorite Republican (just as Lieberman has been the Republicans' favorite Democrat).;
Now is the time for McCain to show that he deserves Democratic and Independent support by moving to the center.
The right wing has no place to go. And, particularly if Hillary is the Democratic candidate, they will be standing in line in the rain for hours before the polls open to be sure to vote against her. It's the center McCain needs to win.
Huckabee's Next Move
Under the winner–take–all rules of most Republican primaries, John McCain will doubtless win the nomination by carrying most northeastern states. But Huckabee will score win after win in the South, border areas, and the Midwest where his evangelical base will be strong. McCain voters will tend to stay home or, where possible, vote in the Democratic primary to stop Hillary, while Huckabee's people will brave winds and fire to vote for their guy.
As a result, Huckabee will probably show up at the convention with a quarter or a third of the delegates and he will embarrass McCain by beating him in state after state after state all throughout the winter and spring. McCain can't make Huckabee withdraw (except by offering him the VP) especially as his rival begins winning states, as he did on Saturday in Kansas and Louisiana. If Huckabee was able to carry five Super Tuesday states even though he spent no money (and he came close to carrying two more), his revived fortunes are likely to animate his candidacy still further.
Eventually, McCain will no longer be able to ignore Huckabee and must make some gesture to him. My bet is that it's the vice presidential nomination.
YNIM
JF-Expert Member
- Aug 29, 2007
- 2,219
- 62
hiyooooo endorsement ya Romney to McCain....mi-republicans inaanza ku-rally behind their nominee!! kitimtim sasa ndio kinaanza, swift boaters watakuwa wameanza kunoa machetes zao......kama movie vile, primaries ilikuwa ni "patigazeti" sasa tuna gear kwenye main feature.
Nyani Ngabu
Platinum Member
- May 15, 2006
- 92,252
- 113,647
Hahahahaha...Super GOP wameanza...na bado....
Unajua hawana jipya watakalosema dhidi ya Mama ambayo watu hawayajui na kwa miaka mingi wamejaribu wee lakini wapi. Lakini huyu Osama sidhani kama ataweza kuhimili kashkash zao maana huwaga si za mchezo...mwulize sura ndefu atakwambia....kwikwiiii
Susuviri
JF-Expert Member
- Oct 6, 2007
- 3,713
- 888
Jamani Jaluo amezidi kuzomba endorsement mpaka superdelegates wameanza kumkimbia bibi - kama mzee Lewis, also vyama vya wafanyakazi SEIU wame-endorse!Nyani, naona hata wewe umejump the sinking ship uko na GOP sasa, angalia usije ukajikuta huna pakurukia hahaha!
Anyway, I am finding interesting the dynamics of American politics because it is truly a gruelling fight mpaka mtu apate nomination ya chama!
Huyu Jaluo knows something! Chadema nendeni mkajikombe kwa Jaluo maybe you can learn a trick or two!
Nyani Ngabu
Platinum Member
- May 15, 2006
- 92,252
- 113,647
Nyani, naona hata wewe umejump the sinking ship uko na GOP sasa, angalia usije ukajikuta huna pakurukia hahaha!
Anyway, I am finding interesting the dynamics of American politics because it is truly a gruelling fight mpaka mtu apate nomination ya chama!
Huyu Jaluo knows something! Chadema nendeni mkajikombe kwa Jaluo maybe you can learn a trick or two!
Let's say Obama anapata nomination halafu kwenye uchaguzi mkuu anashindwa. Yaani tayari naanza kuona watu wakiandama kupinga matokeo ya uchaguzi....hivi ni nani atayekubali matokeo ya yeye kushindwa? Kama akishindwa, mimi Nyani Ngabu natabiri kuwa baadhi ya watu, wengine humuhumu, watadai ubaguzi umetendeka!! Badala ya kujibu hoja kwa hoja, watajibu hoja kwa shutuma za ubaguzi.....yangu macho na masikio!!!!
Halafu hii ya Lewis....ndio maana mi sipendi kabisa kujihusisha na siasa kwa sababu watu wako fake sana. Unafiki umezidi. Yaani ukishaamua kuwa mwanasiasa basi wewe ni kuangalia maslahi yako tu. Hawa hawa watu walioukuwa wanawatukuza kina Clinton na kuwamwagia kila aina ya sifa sasa hivi watu hao hao wanasema eti kina Clinton wabaguzi na mengine mengi. Fcuk politics
JokaKuu
Platinum Member
- Jul 31, 2006
- 30,441
- 55,022
Nyani Ngabu,
..huyo Lewis wapiga kura wake wamempa Obama 90% of votes. sasa unategemea yeye kama mwakilishi wao afanye nini? kama alikuwa upande wa Hillary mwanzoni, at least he tried.
..Hillary naye ana lawama zake lazima abebe. she has failed to be inspiring. yaani hata kutafuta muandishi mzuri, poetic, wa hotuba wameshindwa? ile hotuba ya Obama anasoma kwenye telepromter ni kitu gani kimewashinda Hillary's campaign kuweka hotuba nzuri, inspiring, kwenye telepromter.
..Nimeona Obama alianza kama kilaza katika debates. sasa muangalie sasa hivi he is almost at par with Hillary.
..It has taken me sometime to say this, but I havent seen any improvement or creativity on Hillary as a candidate, and her campaign in general. what was so difficult for her to hijack the change slogan, mix it with her experience thing, and run away with it.
..Ni kitu gani kimemfanya Hillary ashindwe kupata 80% ya kura za wanawake? angekuwa anashinda significantly kura za wanawake asingekuwa ktk predicament aliyonayo sasa.
..Barack alianza na kura kidogo za wanawake. jinsi muda unavyokwenda ameanza ku-gain kura zao. Sasa nini kimemzuia Hillary kumega kura za watoto wa miaka 20, au matajiri na wasomi, au african americans, ambayo ni base ya Obama?
..Hili suala la kuibadilisha washington is just a rhetoric. but if it is something voters are willing to buy why not use it? Bush naye alikuwa na sera yake ya compasionate conservatism sijui imeishia wapi. hata yeye alisema atabadilisha washington lakini ameshindwa.
..Mwisho, Barack Obama ana haki zote za kushinda hii kitu. He has outworked Hillary in every aspect.
..huyo Lewis wapiga kura wake wamempa Obama 90% of votes. sasa unategemea yeye kama mwakilishi wao afanye nini? kama alikuwa upande wa Hillary mwanzoni, at least he tried.
..Hillary naye ana lawama zake lazima abebe. she has failed to be inspiring. yaani hata kutafuta muandishi mzuri, poetic, wa hotuba wameshindwa? ile hotuba ya Obama anasoma kwenye telepromter ni kitu gani kimewashinda Hillary's campaign kuweka hotuba nzuri, inspiring, kwenye telepromter.
..Nimeona Obama alianza kama kilaza katika debates. sasa muangalie sasa hivi he is almost at par with Hillary.
..It has taken me sometime to say this, but I havent seen any improvement or creativity on Hillary as a candidate, and her campaign in general. what was so difficult for her to hijack the change slogan, mix it with her experience thing, and run away with it.
..Ni kitu gani kimemfanya Hillary ashindwe kupata 80% ya kura za wanawake? angekuwa anashinda significantly kura za wanawake asingekuwa ktk predicament aliyonayo sasa.
..Barack alianza na kura kidogo za wanawake. jinsi muda unavyokwenda ameanza ku-gain kura zao. Sasa nini kimemzuia Hillary kumega kura za watoto wa miaka 20, au matajiri na wasomi, au african americans, ambayo ni base ya Obama?
..Hili suala la kuibadilisha washington is just a rhetoric. but if it is something voters are willing to buy why not use it? Bush naye alikuwa na sera yake ya compasionate conservatism sijui imeishia wapi. hata yeye alisema atabadilisha washington lakini ameshindwa.
..Mwisho, Barack Obama ana haki zote za kushinda hii kitu. He has outworked Hillary in every aspect.
Nyani Ngabu
Platinum Member
- May 15, 2006
- 92,252
- 113,647
Ok, I guess you care more about Obama's style and rhetoric and not Mama's substance. Uraisi sio kutoa speeches za kusisimua. Uraisi ni ku-solve matatizo ya nchi na wananchi wake na mimi naangalia zaidi matokeo kuliko maneno matamu matamu. Lakini kama Democratic party Obama ndio chaguo lao, basi wengi wape. Obama is more style than substance. I told you so!!!
JokaKuu
Platinum Member
- Jul 31, 2006
- 30,441
- 55,022
Nyani Ngabu,
..I have been very reluctant to make this assesment on Hillary. Mimi najua inapokuja masuala ya policy hata Bill hamfikii huyu Mama. She is a smart, she is hard working, she is disciplined.
..Mama namkubali kwa kazi yake alipokuwa kwenye Watergate commision, halafu alipoteuliwa na Mzee Jimmy Carter katika masuala ya watoto, na zaidi ushauri wake wa kwanza kuhusu Health Care.
..Mwanamke aliyeweza kufanya kazi na Bill Clinton, na Al Gore, and still manage be a factor and get her message out definetely ana kipaji kisicho cha kawaida.
..Ninacholaumu mimi ni yeye kushindwa kuusoma mchezo unaoendelea. I know that she got substance, but wapiga kura wanataka style. Ninachoomba Hillary atupe substance as well as style. Are you feeling me??
..I have been very reluctant to make this assesment on Hillary. Mimi najua inapokuja masuala ya policy hata Bill hamfikii huyu Mama. She is a smart, she is hard working, she is disciplined.
..Mama namkubali kwa kazi yake alipokuwa kwenye Watergate commision, halafu alipoteuliwa na Mzee Jimmy Carter katika masuala ya watoto, na zaidi ushauri wake wa kwanza kuhusu Health Care.
..Mwanamke aliyeweza kufanya kazi na Bill Clinton, na Al Gore, and still manage be a factor and get her message out definetely ana kipaji kisicho cha kawaida.
..Ninacholaumu mimi ni yeye kushindwa kuusoma mchezo unaoendelea. I know that she got substance, but wapiga kura wanataka style. Ninachoomba Hillary atupe substance as well as style. Are you feeling me??
Kitila Mkumbo
JF-Expert Member
- Feb 25, 2006
- 3,354
- 1,943
True kabisa. Lakini I see naona haya majamaa ya US hayaangalii tena substance. Nafikiri yanaamini sasa kwamba kila mtu anaweza kuwa Rais katika ile nchi madamu systems zipo intact. Nafikiri ndio maana sasa yanakwenda na hiyo style aliyeibuka nayo Obama. Mimi sijaelewa kabisa Joka Kuu anapomkandia huyu mama katika speech, wakati ukisoma pundits'analyses zote zinasema huyu mama kwa speech yupo mbele sana na Obama ni cha mtoto, hana zaidi ya ya hiyo "yes we can", ukimuuliza what can we can, hakwambii!. Kwa hiyo ukweli ni kwamba Obama kawapagaisha tu watu basi. Hili pia tuliliona kwetu 2005 JK alimpagaisha kila mtu, lakini ulikuwa ukiuliza ni nini hicho wanakwambia basi tu. Hii ni kasumba ya binadamu. Katika communication wakati mwingine message ni kitu kingine na deliverer ni kitu kingine. kwamba hapa nafikiri hawa wenzetu wameamua kuzingatia zaidi source of the messsage rather than message yenyewe.
Kinachonishangaza zaidi mimi binafsi ni hili la kutaka kumwadhibu huyu mama kwa sababu tu eti alikuwa mke wa Rais aliyepita. Sasa naanza kuamini kila binadamu hata awe ameendelea vipi hawezi kukosa element za primitivity. Kwa sababu haiwezekani katika hali ya kawaida mtu uadhibitiwe kwa sababu ya mtu mwingine. kwa hiyo kumbe watapoelekea hawa wenzetu huko mbele ni kwamba ukishazaliwa na baba au mama ambaye aliwahi kuwa Rais basi imetoka,wewe itabidi haki fulanifulani uzikose. Sasa ubaguzi sio rangi tu ati. Anyway, wengine ngoja tuendelee ku-watch tu kwa sababu ni nchi yao bwana watakavyoamua acha waamue.
Ila mzee nakusihi kabisa uachane na hawa republicans hata kama Obama atapata nomination. Hawa jamaa sera zao zimetuwaangamiza sana, maana sasa hivi wametuchanganya kabisa kwa kudhibiti hela za ku-promote comprehensive sex education, matokeo yake vijana wetu wengi sasa wanazidi kupata maambukizi na mimba za ujanani kwa sababu ya kukosa elimu ya ngono salama kwa sababu ya ujinga wa Bush. Hawa hawafai kabisa, tena nimefurahia kujua kwamba hata Obama ni liberal vya kutosha na ana-support comprehensive sex education pamoja na safe abortion. Huyo mzee atakuwa more conservative kuliko hata Bush, hatufai sisi tunaotegemea handouts za America kwenye programs zetu za afya.
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