Nyani Ngabu
Platinum Member
- May 15, 2006
- 97,150
- 137,132
He is right.
US Election Coverage 2008
US Election Coverage 2008
- Thread starter Game Theory
- Start date
Susuviri
JF-Expert Member
- Oct 6, 2007
- 3,713
- 891
Hahaaa! Bubu you are definitely a good example of most people, when things are going well, ohh, Obama knows what he is doing, when pundits say this or that you falter, but it's ok, take heart and keep the faith.
Labda nikueleze what is happening: this is called the expectation game and so far Rethugs 1, Obama team 0!! Rethugs did this expectation thing with Palin - they lowered expectations and she delivered a solid speech people wakaona ni wa maana sana. If you put expectations high, a slight mistake will make everyone think that you have tanked. If you look, Biden has now lowered expectations. Anataka aonekane ni weak - now people like you are saying in the debate with Palin, he will not do well. Hillary would have been better. Then you will see Biden, do his thing. You think that the Obama team came this far by gaffes? Clinton machine in DNC si mchezo! So take heart, mkuu.
The frenzy is fed by the media, but if you want change, work for it, go canvassing, talk to people you know why they should vote and choose Obama. Leave the spinning to the professionals.
Susuviri
JF-Expert Member
- Oct 6, 2007
- 3,713
- 891
Ukiangalia the question itself was tricky because Biden asingeweza kumw-attack and he is known to be a gentleman, so that is why alimtetea Hillary. The rethugs are trying to make this an issue but actually kama nilivyosema let the real issues continue, sasa kubishana kuhusu lipstick on pigs and HIllary at this pointin time when the US economy has tanked and thousands of US soldiers have lost their lives in Iraq and Afghanistan, you have to admit the election is not about issues but vioja. But it's cool, waliokosa hoja hao! 😀
Rufiji
Platinum Member
- Jun 18, 2006
- 1,931
- 1,091
Sarah Palin angeweza kabisa kuwamaliza watu wa Obama leo kama angekuja na kusema Obama hakuwa na maana mbaya " Taking high road" lakini hakufanya hivyo, nadhani hii inaonyesha ni jinsi gani kampeni ya babu inavyoshindwa kucapitalize. Huyu mama bado yuko kwenye Honey Moon , halafu kila siku anarudia rudia speech yake ile ile ... let's wait and see.
Susuviri
JF-Expert Member
- Oct 6, 2007
- 3,713
- 891
High road? Who? Rethugs? That's an oxymoron! Huyu Pitbull with lipstick atabaki kurudiarudia tu stump speech na kuwakwepa waandishi because she has no independent thoughts and doesn't really have much to say. Sisi tuko busy na Babu yake Nyani, mzee wa Gasolina. Rethugs ndo wanamshangilia kisura wao, wacha waendelee kusherkehea while we canvass and mobilize!
Nyani Ngabu
Platinum Member
- May 15, 2006
- 97,150
- 137,132
Anakutana na huyo redneck racist....? Mhhhhh...
Halafu acha spin wewe....Biden ni gaffe machine...na gaffe-o-meter yetu iko busy sana siku hizi.....mara eti anamwambia kilema asimame juu ili watu wamwone....gademu Biden....
Nyambala
JF-Expert Member
- Oct 10, 2007
- 4,465
- 1,172
Palin Doesn't Matter, Numbers Do
By Bob Beckel - senior political analyst for the Fox News Channel
The Sarah Palin "boom" that has so traumatized Democrats and intimidated the press will have little if any impact on the presidential election. People don't vote for vice presidents, they vote for presidents. This race is about John McCain and Barack Obama not Annie Oakley from Wasilla, Alaska. It is also about turnout numbers and the electoral demographics in 2008 which overwhelm any impact Sarah Palin might have on the election outcome.
First the Palin "boom". It is the product of surprise (a short lived but powerful force in politics), an emotional outlet for the GOP Right, and post convention polls. In the intense coverage of politics by the ever expanding number of outlets for political information, what is new and surprising quickly becomes over exposed resulting in a short shelf life. The freshness goes away quickly. So it will be shortly for Ms. Palin. She has had the best week in this campaign she will have and the only direction now is down.
The large turnouts at McCain/Palin events this week are a result of an energized Right (which will vote Republican anyway) and say as much about the lack of enthusiasm on the Right for McCain before he picked Palin as it does about any shift in the electorate. As for post convention polls; they are the least predictive of the eventual outcome as any polls in a presidential election. Of course there was a "bounce" after 3 days of what amounted to an infomercial for McCain and a negative ad campaign against Obama. It will not last.
Despite the best efforts of the McCain campaign to control press access to Palin, they can hold back the press tide only so long. It is simply too big and prolific. McCain's campaign manager Rick Davis said on Fox News Sunday they will continue to limit press access until the media shows some "deference" to Palin. Deference is for dictators and monarchs not for junior governors of sparsely populated states like Alaska who expect to be second in line to the leader of the world's oldest Democracy.
When the press tide breaks over Palin what has been given little coverage will be widely disseminated:
• Instead of being a reform governor who hates federal "pork" it will become common knowledge that she has lobbied for and gotten $770 million dollars in pork projects making Alaska among the top three states per capita receiving government largess.
• Far from opposing the infamous "Bridge to Nowhere" pork project, she supported it wholeheartedly only to oppose it when the project became a political bombshell (She kept the bridge money anyway for other Alaskan boondoggles).
• Palin is a right winger. She opposes abortion even in the case of rape, incest AND even if the health of the mother is in jeopardy. She favors shooting wolves from airplanes and has addressed her husband's Alaska Independence Movement affiliation which calls for a vote on Alaska separating from the United States.
And this is only what we know so far. As Barack Obama rightly said stories about Palin's family should be off limits. Besides a sense of propriety, raising her family issues only gives the McCain campaign more ammunition for press bashing. There is plenty of information on Palin unrelated to her family to drive the gender gap back to the Democrats and to ignite the Democratic base.
Now to numbers and demographics (those things that, unlike Palin, really matter in this election year). It has been widely reported that Democrats have a decided advantage over Republicans in voter self identification (from the low double digits to a 20% spread). What has received less attention is the number of newly registered voters in 2008. According to USA Today in the 28 states that register voters by party affiliation the Democrats have added 2 million new voters in 2008 while Republicans have lost 344,000.
Among the states with the largest number of new registrants are Ohio and Pennsylvania, two hotly contested states between Obama and Clinton (yet another reason to debunk the notion that a protracted nominating season hurt Obama). Add to this the vastly superior ongoing voter registration efforts by the Obama campaign which should result in an even greater Democrat to Republican registration advantage by November 4th. Given voter self identification numbers, even if Republicans get organized there are far fewer Republicans to register in 2008.
Demographics also favor the Democrats big time in 2008. It is generally conceded that Obama will win the youth vote by a healthy margin, and if primaries are indicators of fall turnout (historically they are) the youth vote will increase substantially over 2004. Millions of new voters have reached 18 since 2004. Some examples according to the US Census Bureau:
• In Ohio (which John Kerry lost by only 120,000 votes in 2004), 750,000 eligible voters between 18 and 22 who could not vote in 2004 can vote in 2008.
• In Colorado (Kerry lost by 99,000) 293,000 between 18 and 22 have become eligible to vote in 2008.
• In New Mexico (Kerry lost by 6000 votes) 145,000 kids have reached voting age.
• In Michigan 690,000 have become eligible.
• In Virginia 465,000 (Kerry lost by 260,000).
• In Florida alone over 1 million young people have reached voting age since 2004.
Then there are black voters. According to the Census Bureau there are 24 million eligible black voters in America of which 16 million (64%) are registered. In 2004 blacks cast 14 million votes or only 56% of the eligible black population. Blacks are registering to vote at historic rates in 2008 and turnout will soar above 2004 levels. Some examples:
• In Colorado there are 110000 eligible black voters. Only 50,000 voted in 2004.
• In Ohio there are 860,000 eligible black voters. Only 380,000 voted in 2004. (Remember Kerry lost by only 120,000 votes).
• In Virginia, 945,000 eligible black voters, 465,000 voted in 2004.
• Florida; 1,750,000 eligible blacks, 770,000 voted in 2004.
Not to get morbid but there is another statistic that is working against the Republicans. The Center for Disease Control estimates there have been, on average, 2.5 million deaths in America each year since 2005, the overwhelming number of whom were 65 years and older. Since it is generally conceded that John McCain will win the over 65 vote the actuarial tables present a problem. But you say millions have turned 65 since 2004. Correct, but among the people who were 61-64 in 2004 the vote split evenly between Kerry and Bush.
Put it all together and the conclusions are fairly obvious. Sarah Palin may help turnout marginally on the Right but mostly in states that will vote Republican like Alaska. In battleground states, voter registration, newly eligible young voters, eligible nonvoting blacks, and even death rates all favor Obama.
Excuse the pun but Palin's impact on the 2008 election pales in comparison to the Democrats demographic advantages. In the end all the Palin "boom" you hear today will be a whimper come Election Day.
Bob Beckel managed Walter Mondale's 1984 presidential campaign. He is a senior political analyst for the Fox News Channel and a columnist for USA Today. Beckel is the co-author with Cal Thomas of the book "Common Ground."
By Bob Beckel - senior political analyst for the Fox News Channel
The Sarah Palin "boom" that has so traumatized Democrats and intimidated the press will have little if any impact on the presidential election. People don't vote for vice presidents, they vote for presidents. This race is about John McCain and Barack Obama not Annie Oakley from Wasilla, Alaska. It is also about turnout numbers and the electoral demographics in 2008 which overwhelm any impact Sarah Palin might have on the election outcome.
First the Palin "boom". It is the product of surprise (a short lived but powerful force in politics), an emotional outlet for the GOP Right, and post convention polls. In the intense coverage of politics by the ever expanding number of outlets for political information, what is new and surprising quickly becomes over exposed resulting in a short shelf life. The freshness goes away quickly. So it will be shortly for Ms. Palin. She has had the best week in this campaign she will have and the only direction now is down.
The large turnouts at McCain/Palin events this week are a result of an energized Right (which will vote Republican anyway) and say as much about the lack of enthusiasm on the Right for McCain before he picked Palin as it does about any shift in the electorate. As for post convention polls; they are the least predictive of the eventual outcome as any polls in a presidential election. Of course there was a "bounce" after 3 days of what amounted to an infomercial for McCain and a negative ad campaign against Obama. It will not last.
Despite the best efforts of the McCain campaign to control press access to Palin, they can hold back the press tide only so long. It is simply too big and prolific. McCain's campaign manager Rick Davis said on Fox News Sunday they will continue to limit press access until the media shows some "deference" to Palin. Deference is for dictators and monarchs not for junior governors of sparsely populated states like Alaska who expect to be second in line to the leader of the world's oldest Democracy.
When the press tide breaks over Palin what has been given little coverage will be widely disseminated:
• Instead of being a reform governor who hates federal "pork" it will become common knowledge that she has lobbied for and gotten $770 million dollars in pork projects making Alaska among the top three states per capita receiving government largess.
• Far from opposing the infamous "Bridge to Nowhere" pork project, she supported it wholeheartedly only to oppose it when the project became a political bombshell (She kept the bridge money anyway for other Alaskan boondoggles).
• Palin is a right winger. She opposes abortion even in the case of rape, incest AND even if the health of the mother is in jeopardy. She favors shooting wolves from airplanes and has addressed her husband's Alaska Independence Movement affiliation which calls for a vote on Alaska separating from the United States.
And this is only what we know so far. As Barack Obama rightly said stories about Palin's family should be off limits. Besides a sense of propriety, raising her family issues only gives the McCain campaign more ammunition for press bashing. There is plenty of information on Palin unrelated to her family to drive the gender gap back to the Democrats and to ignite the Democratic base.
Now to numbers and demographics (those things that, unlike Palin, really matter in this election year). It has been widely reported that Democrats have a decided advantage over Republicans in voter self identification (from the low double digits to a 20% spread). What has received less attention is the number of newly registered voters in 2008. According to USA Today in the 28 states that register voters by party affiliation the Democrats have added 2 million new voters in 2008 while Republicans have lost 344,000.
Among the states with the largest number of new registrants are Ohio and Pennsylvania, two hotly contested states between Obama and Clinton (yet another reason to debunk the notion that a protracted nominating season hurt Obama). Add to this the vastly superior ongoing voter registration efforts by the Obama campaign which should result in an even greater Democrat to Republican registration advantage by November 4th. Given voter self identification numbers, even if Republicans get organized there are far fewer Republicans to register in 2008.
Demographics also favor the Democrats big time in 2008. It is generally conceded that Obama will win the youth vote by a healthy margin, and if primaries are indicators of fall turnout (historically they are) the youth vote will increase substantially over 2004. Millions of new voters have reached 18 since 2004. Some examples according to the US Census Bureau:
• In Ohio (which John Kerry lost by only 120,000 votes in 2004), 750,000 eligible voters between 18 and 22 who could not vote in 2004 can vote in 2008.
• In Colorado (Kerry lost by 99,000) 293,000 between 18 and 22 have become eligible to vote in 2008.
• In New Mexico (Kerry lost by 6000 votes) 145,000 kids have reached voting age.
• In Michigan 690,000 have become eligible.
• In Virginia 465,000 (Kerry lost by 260,000).
• In Florida alone over 1 million young people have reached voting age since 2004.
Then there are black voters. According to the Census Bureau there are 24 million eligible black voters in America of which 16 million (64%) are registered. In 2004 blacks cast 14 million votes or only 56% of the eligible black population. Blacks are registering to vote at historic rates in 2008 and turnout will soar above 2004 levels. Some examples:
• In Colorado there are 110000 eligible black voters. Only 50,000 voted in 2004.
• In Ohio there are 860,000 eligible black voters. Only 380,000 voted in 2004. (Remember Kerry lost by only 120,000 votes).
• In Virginia, 945,000 eligible black voters, 465,000 voted in 2004.
• Florida; 1,750,000 eligible blacks, 770,000 voted in 2004.
Not to get morbid but there is another statistic that is working against the Republicans. The Center for Disease Control estimates there have been, on average, 2.5 million deaths in America each year since 2005, the overwhelming number of whom were 65 years and older. Since it is generally conceded that John McCain will win the over 65 vote the actuarial tables present a problem. But you say millions have turned 65 since 2004. Correct, but among the people who were 61-64 in 2004 the vote split evenly between Kerry and Bush.
Put it all together and the conclusions are fairly obvious. Sarah Palin may help turnout marginally on the Right but mostly in states that will vote Republican like Alaska. In battleground states, voter registration, newly eligible young voters, eligible nonvoting blacks, and even death rates all favor Obama.
Excuse the pun but Palin's impact on the 2008 election pales in comparison to the Democrats demographic advantages. In the end all the Palin "boom" you hear today will be a whimper come Election Day.
Bob Beckel managed Walter Mondale's 1984 presidential campaign. He is a senior political analyst for the Fox News Channel and a columnist for USA Today. Beckel is the co-author with Cal Thomas of the book "Common Ground."
Nyambala
JF-Expert Member
- Oct 10, 2007
- 4,465
- 1,172
Palin Doesn't Matter, Numbers Do
By Bob Beckel - senior political analyst for the Fox News Channel
The Sarah Palin boom that has so traumatized Democrats and intimidated the press will have little if any impact on the presidential election. People dont vote for vice presidents, they vote for presidents. This race is about John McCain and Barack Obama not Annie Oakley from Wasilla, Alaska. It is also about turnout numbers and the electoral demographics in 2008 which overwhelm any impact Sarah Palin might have on the election outcome.
First the Palin boom. It is the product of surprise (a short lived but powerful force in politics), an emotional outlet for the GOP Right, and post convention polls. In the intense coverage of politics by the ever expanding number of outlets for political information, what is new and surprising quickly becomes over exposed resulting in a short shelf life. The freshness goes away quickly. So it will be shortly for Ms. Palin. She has had the best week in this campaign she will have and the only direction now is down.
The large turnouts at McCain/Palin events this week are a result of an energized Right (which will vote Republican anyway) and say as much about the lack of enthusiasm on the Right for McCain before he picked Palin as it does about any shift in the electorate. As for post convention polls; they are the least predictive of the eventual outcome as any polls in a presidential election. Of course there was a bounce after 3 days of what amounted to an infomercial for McCain and a negative ad campaign against Obama. It will not last.
Despite the best efforts of the McCain campaign to control press access to Palin, they can hold back the press tide only so long. It is simply too big and prolific. McCains campaign manager Rick Davis said on Fox News Sunday they will continue to limit press access until the media shows some deference to Palin. Deference is for dictators and monarchs not for junior governors of sparsely populated states like Alaska who expect to be second in line to the leader of the worlds oldest Democracy.
When the press tide breaks over Palin what has been given little coverage will be widely disseminated:
Instead of being a reform governor who hates federal pork it will become common knowledge that she has lobbied for and gotten $770 million dollars in pork projects making Alaska among the top three states per capita receiving government largess.
Far from opposing the infamous Bridge to Nowhere pork project, she supported it wholeheartedly only to oppose it when the project became a political bombshell (She kept the bridge money anyway for other Alaskan boondoggles).
Palin is a right winger. She opposes abortion even in the case of rape, incest AND even if the health of the mother is in jeopardy. She favors shooting wolves from airplanes and has addressed her husbands Alaska Independence Movement affiliation which calls for a vote on Alaska separating from the United States.
And this is only what we know so far. As Barack Obama rightly said stories about Palins family should be off limits. Besides a sense of propriety, raising her family issues only gives the McCain campaign more ammunition for press bashing. There is plenty of information on Palin unrelated to her family to drive the gender gap back to the Democrats and to ignite the Democratic base.
Now to numbers and demographics (those things that, unlike Palin, really matter in this election year). It has been widely reported that Democrats have a decided advantage over Republicans in voter self identification (from the low double digits to a 20% spread). What has received less attention is the number of newly registered voters in 2008. According to USA Today in the 28 states that register voters by party affiliation the Democrats have added 2 million new voters in 2008 while Republicans have lost 344,000.
Among the states with the largest number of new registrants are Ohio and Pennsylvania, two hotly contested states between Obama and Clinton (yet another reason to debunk the notion that a protracted nominating season hurt Obama). Add to this the vastly superior ongoing voter registration efforts by the Obama campaign which should result in an even greater Democrat to Republican registration advantage by November 4th. Given voter self identification numbers, even if Republicans get organized there are far fewer Republicans to register in 2008.
Demographics also favor the Democrats big time in 2008. It is generally conceded that Obama will win the youth vote by a healthy margin, and if primaries are indicators of fall turnout (historically they are) the youth vote will increase substantially over 2004. Millions of new voters have reached 18 since 2004. Some examples according to the US Census Bureau:
In Ohio (which John Kerry lost by only 120,000 votes in 2004), 750,000 eligible voters between 18 and 22 who could not vote in 2004 can vote in 2008.
In Colorado (Kerry lost by 99,000) 293,000 between 18 and 22 have become eligible to vote in 2008.
In New Mexico (Kerry lost by 6000 votes) 145,000 kids have reached voting age.
In Michigan 690,000 have become eligible.
In Virginia 465,000 (Kerry lost by 260,000).
In Florida alone over 1 million young people have reached voting age since 2004.
Then there are black voters. According to the Census Bureau there are 24 million eligible black voters in America of which 16 million (64%) are registered. In 2004 blacks cast 14 million votes or only 56% of the eligible black population. Blacks are registering to vote at historic rates in 2008 and turnout will soar above 2004 levels. Some examples:
In Colorado there are 110000 eligible black voters. Only 50,000 voted in 2004.
In Ohio there are 860,000 eligible black voters. Only 380,000 voted in 2004. (Remember Kerry lost by only 120,000 votes).
In Virginia, 945,000 eligible black voters, 465,000 voted in 2004.
Florida; 1,750,000 eligible blacks, 770,000 voted in 2004.
Not to get morbid but there is another statistic that is working against the Republicans. The Center for Disease Control estimates there have been, on average, 2.5 million deaths in America each year since 2005, the overwhelming number of whom were 65 years and older. Since it is generally conceded that John McCain will win the over 65 vote the actuarial tables present a problem. But you say millions have turned 65 since 2004. Correct, but among the people who were 61-64 in 2004 the vote split evenly between Kerry and Bush.
Put it all together and the conclusions are fairly obvious. Sarah Palin may help turnout marginally on the Right but mostly in states that will vote Republican like Alaska. In battleground states, voter registration, newly eligible young voters, eligible nonvoting blacks, and even death rates all favor Obama.
Excuse the pun but Palins impact on the 2008 election pales in comparison to the Democrats demographic advantages. In the end all the Palin boom you hear today will be a whimper come Election Day.
Bob Beckel managed Walter Mondales 1984 presidential campaign. He is a senior political analyst for the Fox News Channel and a columnist for USA Today. Beckel is the co-author with Cal Thomas of the book "Common Ground."
By Bob Beckel - senior political analyst for the Fox News Channel
The Sarah Palin boom that has so traumatized Democrats and intimidated the press will have little if any impact on the presidential election. People dont vote for vice presidents, they vote for presidents. This race is about John McCain and Barack Obama not Annie Oakley from Wasilla, Alaska. It is also about turnout numbers and the electoral demographics in 2008 which overwhelm any impact Sarah Palin might have on the election outcome.
First the Palin boom. It is the product of surprise (a short lived but powerful force in politics), an emotional outlet for the GOP Right, and post convention polls. In the intense coverage of politics by the ever expanding number of outlets for political information, what is new and surprising quickly becomes over exposed resulting in a short shelf life. The freshness goes away quickly. So it will be shortly for Ms. Palin. She has had the best week in this campaign she will have and the only direction now is down.
The large turnouts at McCain/Palin events this week are a result of an energized Right (which will vote Republican anyway) and say as much about the lack of enthusiasm on the Right for McCain before he picked Palin as it does about any shift in the electorate. As for post convention polls; they are the least predictive of the eventual outcome as any polls in a presidential election. Of course there was a bounce after 3 days of what amounted to an infomercial for McCain and a negative ad campaign against Obama. It will not last.
Despite the best efforts of the McCain campaign to control press access to Palin, they can hold back the press tide only so long. It is simply too big and prolific. McCains campaign manager Rick Davis said on Fox News Sunday they will continue to limit press access until the media shows some deference to Palin. Deference is for dictators and monarchs not for junior governors of sparsely populated states like Alaska who expect to be second in line to the leader of the worlds oldest Democracy.
When the press tide breaks over Palin what has been given little coverage will be widely disseminated:
Instead of being a reform governor who hates federal pork it will become common knowledge that she has lobbied for and gotten $770 million dollars in pork projects making Alaska among the top three states per capita receiving government largess.
Far from opposing the infamous Bridge to Nowhere pork project, she supported it wholeheartedly only to oppose it when the project became a political bombshell (She kept the bridge money anyway for other Alaskan boondoggles).
Palin is a right winger. She opposes abortion even in the case of rape, incest AND even if the health of the mother is in jeopardy. She favors shooting wolves from airplanes and has addressed her husbands Alaska Independence Movement affiliation which calls for a vote on Alaska separating from the United States.
And this is only what we know so far. As Barack Obama rightly said stories about Palins family should be off limits. Besides a sense of propriety, raising her family issues only gives the McCain campaign more ammunition for press bashing. There is plenty of information on Palin unrelated to her family to drive the gender gap back to the Democrats and to ignite the Democratic base.
Now to numbers and demographics (those things that, unlike Palin, really matter in this election year). It has been widely reported that Democrats have a decided advantage over Republicans in voter self identification (from the low double digits to a 20% spread). What has received less attention is the number of newly registered voters in 2008. According to USA Today in the 28 states that register voters by party affiliation the Democrats have added 2 million new voters in 2008 while Republicans have lost 344,000.
Among the states with the largest number of new registrants are Ohio and Pennsylvania, two hotly contested states between Obama and Clinton (yet another reason to debunk the notion that a protracted nominating season hurt Obama). Add to this the vastly superior ongoing voter registration efforts by the Obama campaign which should result in an even greater Democrat to Republican registration advantage by November 4th. Given voter self identification numbers, even if Republicans get organized there are far fewer Republicans to register in 2008.
Demographics also favor the Democrats big time in 2008. It is generally conceded that Obama will win the youth vote by a healthy margin, and if primaries are indicators of fall turnout (historically they are) the youth vote will increase substantially over 2004. Millions of new voters have reached 18 since 2004. Some examples according to the US Census Bureau:
In Ohio (which John Kerry lost by only 120,000 votes in 2004), 750,000 eligible voters between 18 and 22 who could not vote in 2004 can vote in 2008.
In Colorado (Kerry lost by 99,000) 293,000 between 18 and 22 have become eligible to vote in 2008.
In New Mexico (Kerry lost by 6000 votes) 145,000 kids have reached voting age.
In Michigan 690,000 have become eligible.
In Virginia 465,000 (Kerry lost by 260,000).
In Florida alone over 1 million young people have reached voting age since 2004.
Then there are black voters. According to the Census Bureau there are 24 million eligible black voters in America of which 16 million (64%) are registered. In 2004 blacks cast 14 million votes or only 56% of the eligible black population. Blacks are registering to vote at historic rates in 2008 and turnout will soar above 2004 levels. Some examples:
In Colorado there are 110000 eligible black voters. Only 50,000 voted in 2004.
In Ohio there are 860,000 eligible black voters. Only 380,000 voted in 2004. (Remember Kerry lost by only 120,000 votes).
In Virginia, 945,000 eligible black voters, 465,000 voted in 2004.
Florida; 1,750,000 eligible blacks, 770,000 voted in 2004.
Not to get morbid but there is another statistic that is working against the Republicans. The Center for Disease Control estimates there have been, on average, 2.5 million deaths in America each year since 2005, the overwhelming number of whom were 65 years and older. Since it is generally conceded that John McCain will win the over 65 vote the actuarial tables present a problem. But you say millions have turned 65 since 2004. Correct, but among the people who were 61-64 in 2004 the vote split evenly between Kerry and Bush.
Put it all together and the conclusions are fairly obvious. Sarah Palin may help turnout marginally on the Right but mostly in states that will vote Republican like Alaska. In battleground states, voter registration, newly eligible young voters, eligible nonvoting blacks, and even death rates all favor Obama.
Excuse the pun but Palins impact on the 2008 election pales in comparison to the Democrats demographic advantages. In the end all the Palin boom you hear today will be a whimper come Election Day.
Bob Beckel managed Walter Mondales 1984 presidential campaign. He is a senior political analyst for the Fox News Channel and a columnist for USA Today. Beckel is the co-author with Cal Thomas of the book "Common Ground."
BAK
JF-Expert Member
- Feb 11, 2007
- 124,769
- 288,283
SV, mimi nasema kweli tu. Sasa hivi kuna tofauti kubwa katika kampeni za McSame Na Obama. Kwa McSame yaani unaona watu walivyokuwa na motisha wa kutisha tofauti kati ya sasa na kabla ya Convention yao ni kama usiku na mchana, kwenye kampeni za Obama nako unaona watu wamenywea. Hata political analysts wanasema hivyo kwamba ndani ya chama cha Democratics watu wameanza kuhoji kama watairudisha WH chini ya miliki yao na halafu VP anaposema chaguo zuri lilikuwa ni Hillary na siyo yeye basi hali ndiyo inazidi kuwa mbaya. Tusubiri siku 54 ni nyingi mno kwenye uchaguzi, chochote kinaweza kutokea lakini ukweli ni kwamba kwa sasa hivi mambo si mazuri kwa Obama. Kumbuka pia nilisema hapa JF kwamba amefanya makosa kumchagua Biden hata kabla ya opinion polls hazijaanza kwenda kombo kwa Obama.
Nyani Ngabu
Platinum Member
- May 15, 2006
- 97,150
- 137,132
143 days
You couldn't get a job at McDonalds and become district manager after 143 days of experience.
You couldn't become chief of surgery after 143 days of experience of being a surgeon.
You couldn't get a job as a teacher and be the superintendent after 143 days of experience.
You couldn't join the military and become a colonel after a 143 days of experience.
You couldn't get a job as a reporter and become the nightly news anchor after 143 days of experience.
BUT....
'From the time Barack Obama was sworn in as a United State Senator, to the time he announced he was forming a Presidential exploratory committee, he logged 143 days of experience in the Senate.
That's how many days the Senate was actually in session and working.
After 143 days of work experience, Obama believed he was ready to be Commander In Chief, Leader of the Free World, and fill the shoes of Abraham Lincoln, FDR, JFK and Ronald Reagan. 143 days?
We all have to start somewhere. The senate is a good start, but after 143 days, that's all it is - a start.
AND, strangely, a large sector of the American public seems to feel comfortable with this and campaigning for him.
We wouldn't accept this in our own line of work, yet some are OK with this for the President of the United States of America?
Come on folks, we are not voting for the next American Idol.
You couldn't get a job at McDonalds and become district manager after 143 days of experience.
You couldn't become chief of surgery after 143 days of experience of being a surgeon.
You couldn't get a job as a teacher and be the superintendent after 143 days of experience.
You couldn't join the military and become a colonel after a 143 days of experience.
You couldn't get a job as a reporter and become the nightly news anchor after 143 days of experience.
BUT....
'From the time Barack Obama was sworn in as a United State Senator, to the time he announced he was forming a Presidential exploratory committee, he logged 143 days of experience in the Senate.
That's how many days the Senate was actually in session and working.
After 143 days of work experience, Obama believed he was ready to be Commander In Chief, Leader of the Free World, and fill the shoes of Abraham Lincoln, FDR, JFK and Ronald Reagan. 143 days?
We all have to start somewhere. The senate is a good start, but after 143 days, that's all it is - a start.
AND, strangely, a large sector of the American public seems to feel comfortable with this and campaigning for him.
We wouldn't accept this in our own line of work, yet some are OK with this for the President of the United States of America?
Come on folks, we are not voting for the next American Idol.
Nyani Ngabu
Platinum Member
- May 15, 2006
- 97,150
- 137,132
Hahahahahaaaaa....kwanza angalia ni nani aliye-compile hizi dataz. Bob Beckel-campaign manager wa Walter Mondale who won only 1 state. Bwahahahahahahaaaaaaa......halafu hao blacks anaowazungumzia ni wangapi wana felony na mbona hajaleta number za wazungu.....mweeee...hizi research nyingine hizi jamani.....no wonder why Mondale suffered a hummiliating defeat.....
Nyambala
JF-Expert Member
- Oct 10, 2007
- 4,465
- 1,172
Bubu naona you are missing a point, HRC anaonekana kama angekuwa favorable for that VP nominee kwa sasa simply maybe kwa sababu unaona kuna MCbush na huyo Pitbull ndani ya lipstick. Lakini in reality kama OB angemteua HRC McBush would have never picked the lipsticken hiozo ndio dynamics za politics. Kumbuka pia kwamba HRC alimcritisize sana OB wakati wa primaries to an extent mpaka ikawa kama personal attacks sasa hizo hizo clips zingekuwa zinatumika kipindi hiki. Na pia HRC ana political baggages nyingi ambazo Republicans wangezitumia kwa kampeni chafu vibaya sana.
Hivyo basi your predictions should always consider politico dyanamics. I assure you the situation is not as bad as it is being portrayed or purported. Come Nov. 04 you will see wht is gonna be!!!!!!!!!!! Kumbuka when Obama was ahead in all polls just in the recent months GOP walikuwa wanasema hata Dukakis aliongoza mpaka ile election eve tena kwa margin ya double digit.
By the way how is the US president get elected??? Is it by popular votes? See where OB is leading...
Nyani Ngabu
Platinum Member
- May 15, 2006
- 97,150
- 137,132
Hahahahaaaaa....hata John Kerry aliongoza kwenye exit polls 2004....
Nyambala
JF-Expert Member
- Oct 10, 2007
- 4,465
- 1,172
Well say what you are saying is true. Does that mean after those 143 days BO stopped working in a senate and started a politico campaign????????
Nyani remember 143 days is only some 5 months............... Is this what you and the GOP's want to say is the expererience of BO hahahahahaha!!!!
Well seems you don't get it!
Nyani Ngabu
Platinum Member
- May 15, 2006
- 97,150
- 137,132
How are you seriously going to get anything done while you are occupied with running for the presidency. He hasn't authored any law since he has gotten there (senate) but he has written a memoir....go figure.....
So who's not getting it...?
Nyambala
JF-Expert Member
- Oct 10, 2007
- 4,465
- 1,172
Nyani Ngabu
Platinum Member
- May 15, 2006
- 97,150
- 137,132
Historically, yule aongozaye baada ya labor day huwa anakuja kuwa mshindi.....so it ain't bad news to me that we've pulled away from the polls....
Nyambala
JF-Expert Member
- Oct 10, 2007
- 4,465
- 1,172
The writing is on the wall, let's wait and see...............Time will tell!!!!!!!
Nyani Ngabu
Platinum Member
- May 15, 2006
- 97,150
- 137,132
I have to agree with you on that....
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