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Kwa sasa ningependa kujibu maswali makuu mawili: Kwanza, kuna mtu aliniuliza natumia vipi nafasi yangu ndani ya CCM kutoa mawazo yangu? Wa pili akaniuliza nina mawazo gani juu ya utatuzi wa hali ya sasa bei za vyakula na nishati? Kwa swali la kwanza - kama unaulizia katika mazingira ya sera kitaifa, kwa kweli sina nafasi yoyote ndani ya chama zaidi ya kuwa mwanachama tu wa kawaida. Inawezekana ni kweli alichosema Doctor Kitila na wengineo kwamba mawazo kama yangu hayana nafasi ndani ya CCM, lakini ningependa kuamini sivyo kwani vijana kama Nape wamepitia hayo na sasa wanasikilizwa. Vinginevyo, kama nimevyokwisha ainisha, Falsafa yangu ni
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Nirudi kwenye mada. Ningependa kuzungumzia suala la Food and Fuel Prices. Kwanza nadhani ni muhimu sana kuliangalia tatizo hili tokea kwenye shina lake kabla ya kupendekeza ufumbuzi.
- Nini Kinatokea hivi sasa?
First of all, commodity price boom ni suala lililopo world wide at present. Pace hii ilianza shika kasi in the late 2007, na iliendana na turmoil in the global financial markets pamoja na sluggish economic growth katika nchi zilizoendelea. According to the IMF, kwa wastani, commodity prices have risen by almost 45% since 2006 (see IMF Commodity Price Index). Tutambue kwamba many commodity prices have reached a record high in real terms, most notable zikiwa ni Oil, Corn, Wheat and Soyabeans. The soar up price was led by major food crops (corn, wheat, edible oil etc) but recently ime spread into other foods, especially rice.
Ila muhimu: tutambue kwamba, price levels today are record breaking only in current terms, but in real terms, if you look at the data, the prices remain way below the levels of the late 1970s, ofcourse with the exception of Crude Oil.
- Kwanini hili tatizo linatokea?
It is simply a combination of both temporary and permanent factors. We have to be very careful not to treat it as a temporary problem with permanent solutions or permanent problem with temporary solutions bila uchambuzi because tuna mazoea na serikali yetu kutokuwa makini at times.
Reasons to why tatizo la bei ya mafuta na vyakula is happening:
- First of all, we all know kwamba the major reason to why oil prices are skyrocketing is the continuing instability in the Middle East and North Africa. The idea that the region will be unstable for a while plus revolutions replicating in many other areas makes oil producers adopt a speculative mode of production. Typical oligopoly capitalists.
- High demand for food from emerging economies hizi nchi zime experience growth of per capita income so their demand and food consumption habits have surged thus depleting global inventories za grain.
- Biofuel phenomenon demand and production of these compete with that of food i.e. its a substitution phenomenon taking place. At present, there is a surge in demand for corn and rapeseeds oil and it is mentioned that almost 50% of the demand for major food crops in the world are biofuel related. This is very dangerous and we have some investors snooping for biofuel land in Tanzania. Tuwaangalie kwa makini sana. This demand adds pressure on food prices in the context of demand and supply.
- Of course pia drought plus high costs of food production inputs (fertilizers etc).
- Financial factors The appreciation of the US dollar decreases our purchasing power as we are net importers of food (grains). Our purchasing power decreases in the sense that, we get less and less dollars from our shillings; but also our import bill pia includes other important imports, so food imports competes with oil imports etc, thus demand for food remains high relative to supply. Ila tuseme wazi pia kwamba kuna importation ya vitu vingine by the government that are so unnecessary.havina tija kwa maskini.
- Implications kutokana na mfumuko huu wa bei ya petrol na chakula
In terms of balance of payments, in a way we have been able to absorb the balance BOP impact our high earnings from exports of gold and key cash crops (tobacco, tea, coffee, cotton, cashew nuts). However, attention has to be on the terms of trade TOT is the relative price of our imports to imports; if imports are greater than exports, the TOT are unfavorable because it implies that we have to give up more of our exports for the imports we receive. We currently face this problem i.e. trade deficit.
- Why should we be concerned?
For the majority of Tanzanians, food carries the largest share of their consumption. Mfano rahisi mbeba zege (kama kazi badi zipo because hata hizi zimeanza kuwa haba) makes about T.sh 5,000/day. Akinunua chakula kwa mama ntilie baada ya kushinda na njaa asubuhi, halafu aende gengeni kupitia nyanya na dagaa watoto na mke wale, zaidi ya elf tatu is gone kwa chakula tu in a day. Elfu mbili iliyobakia ndio ya vocha ya simu, nauli ya basi, na hela ya kitumbua kwa watoto wakienda shule kesho. So it is a major concern because food expenditure exceeds other commodities by a very large margin, among the poor, urban poor in particular.
Social implications includes possible riots in urban areas might become inevitable. It wont be surprising to see people walking to work tokea kimara mpaka mjini na kurudi kwani tatizo likizidi, hata madaladala yatakuwa hayashikiki. Tuombee tu mungu ikitokea, basi maskini wasije tafsiriwa kwamba wanagoma. In Indonesia, watu walishagoma kupinga shortage of soyabeans; niger, Uganda, Ethiopia, tayari kumekuwa na riots
.
- Possible remedies
Remedies depends on the pace of economic growth especially in china and other emerging economies (see the discussion above - about the increases GDP per capita in emerging economies and how this leads to their increased food consumption from developing countries);slowness in growth itasaidia utatuzi kwa kiasi fulani; it should be noted also that it has been projected that the decline in oil prices will be limited in the medium term because oil prices reflects not only the instability in Middle East and North Africa but also costs of oil production which are still very high. There has not been a major innovation in this area to make the production of oil more reasonable in terms of technologies
So for countries that remain to be oil importers like Tanzania, there is no major remedy in the short and medium term;
On food prices As we know, weather conditions ni key; also we need to increase production of food crops; we also have to reject investors coming to grab our land for biofuel production, by all means necessary. We have many energy sources (hydro, coal, wind, that) remain to be underutilized.
Zitto, Wanasemaje huko serikalini juu ya hili? I heard that 5 years ago, a reputable (globally) company in hydro electricity pdn called energem was ready to invest at stiglers gorge kwa hela yao wenyewe, sio mkopo wala deni kwa serikali but akapigwa stop. Akaulizwa, umeme wa megawatts 2000 utaupeleka wapi, mbona mwingi sana because hatuna that much demand? So akawa turned down. Habari hizi za energem unaweza google. Sasa nasikia wamemruhusu mwekezaji mwingine kwenye the same project ila hana ufanisi kama energem.
- Policy Response
We can hardly tell the extent to which the price hike in oil and food prices are a permanent or temporary; as already noted above, we should take care and avoid using short term solutions for long term problems OR using long term solutions for short term problems. However, once determined, temporary prices increases can be mitigated by temporary targeted solutions and vice versa (i.e. permanent) holds. I suggested kwamba: the government should avoid the use of untargeted subsidies to lower domestic food prices (e.g. kutoa hela kiholela kwa jamaa jamaa wanaopataga tender ku import food); also government should avoid subsidizing farmers kiholela as a way to increase food production and supply; also avoidance of the following ni key: direct price controls; financing food production; export bans; if governments dont avoid haya, it will further raise the world market prices); also improper handling of such it may become a disincentive to farmers; also willl fail to help the poor and will drain our resources, which are already limited.
- INSTEAD
Looks like this is a permanent shocks, so may require adjustment of the exchange rates or monetary policy or fiscal policies wabunge wetu wachumi kama kina Zitto pamoja na wachumi waliopo BOT na Hazina should be lead katika hili.
Finally, I would like to say kwamba we should consider this not just as a threat but pia an opportunity. We should try to encourage expansion of domestic agricultural production by improving infrastructure, distribution and storage systems because Tanzania has a clear comparative advantage in agriculture, by very far, over most SSA countries. The government should use this opportunity to also increase competition in the food sector, come up with a stable and an effective regulatory environment; provide access to credit to farmers and remove trade barriers (free trade iwe encouraged lakini while furthering incentives for production and effective policies to protect wananchi esp waliopo mijini. If done correctly, food productivity and food supply should increase, thus lead to less pressure on food prices.