200 million angalau, kwingine kwenye mataifa yaliyoendelea si kwa kiwango hicho.
Hapa tunaweza kubishana mpaka subuhi, kwa sababu, hakuna definition rasmi ya nchi iliyoendelea iko vipi na inayoendelea iko vipi.
Wachumi wenyewe hawakubaliani, na suala hili lina siasa nyingi.
Hivyo, linabaki kuwa suala la mtazamo.
Foreign Policy
ANALYSIS
China Is Developing and Developed at the Same Time
The world’s second-largest economy has a historically unique economic status.
By
Philippe Benoit, an adjunct senior research scholar at Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy.
A woman sleeps beneath a billboard promoting new urban development in Beijing.
A woman sleeps beneath a billboard promoting new urban development in Beijing on Aug. 21, 2003. FREDERIC J. BROWN/AFP VIA GETTY IMAGES
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MAY 23, 2023, 9:58 AM
The U.S. House of Representatives recently
voted unanimously that China should no longer be considered a “developing country.” A major motivation is to deny China the preferential treatment it receives as a developing country under the
World Trade Organization, the
U.N. climate framework, and other international arrangements. Indeed, from
Africa to
Latin America and even
Europe, China is very much adopting the role of a rich global power.
And yet, China continues to exhibit many traits of a developing country, including in energy and other areas, and particularly outside the major urban centers most visible to foreigners. The truth about China’s status as a developing country is far more complex.
China has transformed itself from a low-income country in the 1990s into the world’s second-largest economy, with many attributes of a rich global power projecting its
economic and
diplomatic influence abroad. Earlier this year, French President Emmanuel Macron
became another in a line of European leaders to visit China, soliciting closer business ties, while also hoping to
encourage Beijing to exercise its influence on Moscow regarding the invasion of Ukraine. China is projecting itself increasingly in international affairs, with the
largest number of foreign postings (surpassing the United States) and repeatedly mobilizations of its military (
third behind the U.S. and Russia) to the disquiet of its
neighbors and others. Indeed, China is acting very much like a wealthy global power.
But China also still exhibits various characteristics of a developing country, including a population of more than 200 million people
without access to clean cooking technologies; widespread
pollution; and a ranking under the
Human Development Index—which focuses on health and education outcomes—of 79th out of 191 countries (scoring below, for example,
Sri Lanka and Iran). Even its continuing
heavy reliance on coal, a cheap but
dirty fuel, is arguably a developing country trait that contrasts with the substantially
lower shares achieved by advanced economies such as those of the European Union and the United States.
China is expected soon to
graduate from “middle income” into “high income” under the World Bank country classification system—which arguably is part of the reasoning underlying the U.S. House vote—but this change won’t immediately erase its developing country aspects. For example, the International Energy Agency (IEA) has estimated that it will take China until 2030 to provide basic clean cooking access to all. Moreover, China is still, in U.S. dollar terms, far from the income levels enjoyed in developed Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development
economies; notably, its GDP per capita is currently half that of
Portugal and equates to the
average income of the world population across all developed and developing countries.
Similarly, while only
2 percent of Portugal’s population lived below the
poverty threshold of $6.85 a day in 2019, the corresponding figure for China was more than 10 times bigger, at 25 percent. Achieving the levels of Portugal and other
advanced economies will require not only time, but continued success in maintaining robust growth.
In assessing China, it is important to recognize that it presents a unique situation: a country combining developed and developing country traits with global clout. It is the world’s lone
“hybrid superpower.”
Energy is an area that illustrates this dynamic. Consistent with its
income level, China is still at a development stage where it relies on increasing energy use to power further economic growth. The IEA projects that China, already the world’s largest energy user, will need to procure nearly
20 percent more by 2040. This contrasts with advanced economies, such asthe United States., Japan, and the European Union, where energy consumption is projected to fall.
Securing these larger amounts of energy is and will remain a major concern for Beijing’s decision-makers. Notwithstanding its extensive domestic resources (such as
coal,
oil, and
renewables), much of China’s energy will need to be
imported, which in turn will affect its approach to the Middle East and other energy exporters,
including Russia. Beijing’s recent diplomatic efforts
toward Saudi Arabia and brokering a
rapprochement between Saudi Arabia and Iran arguably reflect its interest in enhancing the stability of its
oil imports from the region.
Domestic poverty will also affect China’s strategies. While it showcases the skyline of Shanghai and other advancements (such as its high-speed
rail system), poverty
remains a reality for millions of Chinese households. In addition to the 200 million without access to clean cooking, many others
rely on coal to heat their homes. Similarly, while Beijing
enjoys GDP per capita levels resembling Europe, households in China’s poorest region
face levels similar
to Peru. China has succeeded in
eliminating the extreme poverty burdening most developing countries, and it is now home to a
burgeoning middle class, but many families still lack quality standards of living, particularly in
rural areas. Addressing these issues will require Beijing’s attention and resources.
This duality of China’s hybrid development status can arguably be seen in the “near-peer” descriptor used by the U.S. national intelligence community in its 2021 annual
threat assessment report. As Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines
explained to Congress at the time: “While China poses an increasingly formidable challenge to the U.S. role in global affairs, it is worth noting that its economic, environmental and demographic vulnerabilities all threaten to complicate its ability to manage the transition to the dominant role it aspires to in the decades ahead.” Some of those constraints flow from its developing country traits.