Tanzania's GDP: Hivi tunajua hili?

[Pundit]

Kuhani,

Total hogwash.

Until you develop the DSE to be the premier world Stock Exchange surpassing Wall St and Canary Wharf, and the Tanzanian Shilling to be the currency of choice for international trade surpassing the dollar, euro and other major currencies, adopting your position will be akin to floating in a wave of naive wishful thinking that the real is apart from the imagined and the stock market does not count.The imagined is the real, the stock / commodities markets dictate prices, trends and economies.Your nation's founding father -Nyerere- realized this, precisely the reason he used to wake up every morning to listen to commodities prices on BBC . Some would argue even with the above mentioned prerequisite tools, a leading market and currency, you will still succumb to the powers of the global economy and it's sophiostication, just as the Americans are having a hard time presently.

I wonder if the present occupant of Magogoni has the "sophistication" to adopt a steady interest along these lines, but reading your post I am even more concerned that the issue of financial literacy is bigger than the expected ignorance on the likes of Kikwete, but also on some of our most prolific contributors in here. No man, let alone nation, exist in a financial vacuum. And if you operate under principles that assume so, or entertain mediocrity under that guise, be prepared for sudden peril. It is no wonder we are eternal beggars, our young minds are ready to jump at some sorry excuise for our poor state of the economy, what do you expect the old cronies to say?

Unless you reject the underlying principles of modern economies, such as pricing by demand and supply (and face the fate of being relegated to the dustbin of history like the central planning system) you cannot reject these overvalued figures generated by overvalued stocks.The question is, why can't Tanzania generate an economy that will allow enough affluence among it's middle class to generate an equally overvalued stock market? The disproportionate ratio 30:1 between Lehman Brother' assets and Tanzania's GDP is far beyond what one may reasonably attribute to overvalue.One can responsibly attribute to overvalue close ratios, like 2:1 3:1 or even 5:1, but 30:1, that's a different league.

The bottom line is that, Tanzania, being neither a small island state atoll nor a landlocked chiefdom like Lesotho (for all intents and purposes) but rather a resources rich arable land with over 1400 kilometres of coastline plenty of food and water, lakes,rivers, the whole alphabet list repertoire of minerals from the rare to the abundant but valued, vast unexplored land, to say nothing of millions in labor force is lagging this far behind compared to, not a tiny banking Duchy like Luxembourg, not a state like California, but an investment bank? One single sole unaided bank?

Preposterous, and whats even more outrageous is the apologism and obliterate obfuscation disguised in your effigy of this mockery of a country's finances.

 

[Augustine Moshi]

Is Tanzania poor? Yes, absolutely. We wallow in abject poverty. Christ, that is visible everywhere! The average Tanzanian is so poor that it hurts your feelings just watching him!

Does the average Tanzanian create goods and services that are worth just $600 per annum? No! That is a bad estimate. A more accurate estimate would be $1500. You may wonder about how I arrived at that figure. It is a well considered estimate. Their figure of $600 is a wild guess. If it is not, then show me exactly how it was arrived at. The calculations should be repeatable, shouldn’t they?

A lot of that stock market wealth that people are talking about is simulated wealth. It is not real wealth.

 

[Mkandara]

Jamani yote haya ya nini? Sisi maskini na inaonyesha wazi tunazidi kudidimia ktk Umaskini..
Mnapozungumzia haya ma GDP na sijui market value mnazidi kutuweka uchungu tu kwani nchi yetu hata mali yetu haiendi sokoni!..
Jamani kila nchi inaendelea kwa kiasi fulani na kila nchi inaongezeka population kwa kiasi fulani iweje leo nchi kama Haiti, Ethiopia, hata Rwanda wawe mbele yetu ikiwa sote tupo ktk kutafuta huo Utajiri?..
Mimi nasema hivi kutokubali kwetu kuwa tuna matatizo ni sawa na mgonjwa wa cancer anayekataa haumwi, hataki kukubali matokeo ya daktri kwa sababu anajiona mnene kuliko jirani yake aliyeambiwa afya yake ni nzuri kiasi..

Wakuu tunakokwenda kubaya na dunia ya leo kama mnavyoiona hali inazidi kuwa nguvu hata ktk mataifa makubwa, je sisi tunaotegemea misaada kweli tutapona Tsumani hili linalokuja?

 

[Augustine Moshi]

Mkandara,

Hatukatai kwamba sisi ni masikini. Tunakataa huo uwongo kwamba Mtanzania wa kawaida anazalisha wastani wa chini ya dola mbili kwa siku. Hii ndiyo maana ya per capita GDP ya $600.

Kama una kizunguzungu na mtu akakuita mwenda wazimu utakubali tu eti kwa vile ni kweli una matatizo?

"Tumeonewa vya kutosha, tumedharauliwa vya kutosha. Sasa tunataka kufanya mapinduzi" (Mwongozo wa TANU, circa 1971).

 

[Fundi Mchundo]

Haya Kuhani na Pundit.
Break it down kwa sisi mambumbu.

Mkandara,

Hatukatai kwamba sisi ni masikini. Tunakataa huo uwongo kwamba Mtanzania wa kawaida anazalisha wastani wa chini ya dola mbili kwa siku. Hii ndiyo maana ya per capita GDP ya $600.

Kama una kizunguzungu na mtu akakuita mwenda wazimu utakubali tu eti kwa vile ni kweli una matatizo?

Mimi simuelewi Mkuu Moshi.
GDP per capita ni average kwa hiyo haina maana kuwa kila mtanzania anazalisha hivyo. Hii inatisha zaidi katika mazingira ya siku hizi ambapo ni watanzania wengi tu ambao ni dola milionea ( Mzee Vijisenti etc etc). Maana yake huyo masikini hata kile kidogo alichonacho ananyang'anywa na wajanja. Wengi wa watanzania wanazalisha na kupata below this amount. Mkuu Moshi, safiri Tanzania na utaelewa kuwa kuna idadi kubwa ya watu ambao hata katika huyo uchumi uchwara wetu hawamo. Wanavaa shuka, wanakula mihogo na kisamvu wanacholima na wakunywa pombe za kienyeji ambayo wanapewa kwa kutoa huduma ( kuwalimia wengine etc.). Wanapougua wanakula mwaarubaini au wanaenda kwa mtaalam ambaye malipo yake ni kuku au mayai! Watu hata senti ya kununua pini hawana! Wapo kwetu. Ni wengi tu lakini rada yetu haiwaoni.

Tembea, ndugu yangu, na utaona hata hizi pengine tumependelewa.

 

[William J. Malecela]

Break it down kwa sisi mambumbu.

Samahani mkuu mimi simo humo.

thanxs!

 

[Fundi Mchundo]

Samahani mkuu mimi simo humo.

thanxs!

Mbona una wasiwasi? Si nimesema SISI? Tangu lini, Mkuu, umekuwa mwenzangu? Mambumbu ni mimi na wenzangu! Asie mwenzangu hahusiki.

 

[William J. Malecela]

Break it down kwa sisi mambumbu.

Mbona una wasiwasi? Si nimesema SISI? Tangu lini, Mkuu, umekuwa mwenzangu? Mambumbu ni mimi na wenzangu! Asie mwenzangu hahusiki.

Okay safari njema, wasalimie!.

 

[Pundit]

Some prima donna must always deflect with their conceited antics!

I will be back to discombobulate the opposing argument, even with the allowance with honorable Moshi's speculative figure of $ 1500 we are doing very poorly.

 

[Nyani Ngabu]

Mijitu humu inachekesha na kushangaza kweli. Kwa jinsi "inavyojiona" inakata ishus humu, ungedhani tumeendelea lakini wapi.....

Go McCain-Palin......

 

[Mkandara]

Mkuu Mwalimu Moshi,

Kama una kizunguzungu na mtu akakuita mwenda wazimu utakubali tu eti kwa vile ni kweli una matatizo?

..
Mwalimu mimi ningekubali kuitwa Mwendawazimu kama definition ya mwenda wazimu ingekuwa inaanza na kizunguzungu. Ikiwa mimi nakubali kuna watu wengine wendawazimu (hao kina Tamil na Somalia) kwa sababu ya kizunguzungu iweje mimi nikatae daktari anaposema nina wendawazimu sawa na hao Somalia wenye kizunguzungu!..

Jambo kubwa hapa mkuu sio hiyo figure ya 600 au 1500 kwa siku isipokuwa wapi sisi Tanzania tumesimama..Kifupi kila mwaka tunazidi kushuka chini wakati nchi nyingi maskini duniani zinapanda. Uzalishaji imekuwa sumu kwetu nchi nzima ni mission town tu.
Hata mashirika makubwa yanayoingia nchini uzalishaji wake ni wa kubabaisha, mostly imports zinaendelea kupanda juu zaidi ya uzalishaji..imefikia hadi wananchi wanauza ardhi zao, vibanda vyao kwa wageni, hiyo Kariakoo ambayo ilikuwa makazi ya waswahili sasa hivi ni makazi ya Waarabu, Wahindi, Wachina waliojipanua na sio kwamba wanafungua viwanda ama kuongeza ajira isipokuwa vibarua na utumwa umezidi kutokana na mali toka nje! ...soon Tanzania itakuwa another Palestina inatisha mkuu.
Kama anavyosema Fundi mchundo, Ukienda huko vijijini ndio inatisha sana..yaani ukitazama hesabu za NGO zinavyosaidia familia nyingi utaogopa!..
Kwa hiyo hata kama ikiwa GDP per capita ni 1500 basi kumbuka hata huko Guinea Bissau, Tamil, Somalia na kwingineko pia havikuhesabiwa vitu vingi sawa na sisi kwa hiyo wao pia wanaweza kuwa 1500.
Mkuu, kwa mfano miaka 10 iliyopita per capita ya dola 600 kwa mwaka tulikuwa nafasi ya 110 leo hii tuna 1500 imetuweka nafasi ya 130 ina maana tunadondoka kiuchumi zaidi ya nchi nyinginezo duniani. Ipo haja kubwa ya kujiuliza huo wendawazimu unatupeleka wapi!

 

[waziri kalala]

NI DHAHIRI serikali imeshindwa kutumia Human Developmen t Index, Mo Ibrahim Index of African Development na takwimu zingine toka taasisi mbalimbali duniani na ku-factor in mikakati ya maendeleo hususan kwa ;mfano kama tunataka GDP per capita ya Mtanzania iwe labda £2,500 baada ya miaka 5 tunahitaji kuzishughulikiaje sekta mbalimbali za uchumi ili malengo hayo yafikiwe!
Nchi hii ninavyoona mimi inajiendesha Kiswahili kwa maana tunaalala na tunaamka asubuhi bila kuwa na mipango na kama ipo hakuna wa kufuatilia na wala tathmini ya utendaji kazi wetu haifanyi kazi inayotakiwa. Na ndiyo maana wasiostahili kuwemo wamo, na wanaostahili kuwemo hawamp. Ukichanganya na yale madhambi ya CCM na serikali yake dhidi ya makundi mbalimbali katika jamiii nimeanza kuamini kwamba hata ifike miaka 50 bado tutakuwa papa hapa!

 

[Pundit]

This discussion brings another important point into light.

It is probably true that Tanzania does not have the necessary tools to adequately, let alone accurately, measure the GDP. We have neither an effective stock market, nor a solid commodity market that can provide a Tanzanian basket of goods in a meaningful way for economic analysis. We hardly know the population to an acceptable margin of error, let alone the unemployment figure.In fact discrening exactly what is unemployment in Tanzania could prove a Herculean task, what with the rampant disguised unemployment, informal sector being a considerable part of the economy and the whole complacency with the "Data Not Available" culture coupled with the pandemic of informatuion starvation.

This is an indicator of abject poverty, few can dispute that, what seems to be at large, is the trivia of just by how much and how many are under us in the ladder of prosperity.

For those arguing that GDP is a poor indicator of prosperity, I concurr, but in rehashing the seriousness of our poverty not pointing a finger at some inaccurate potrayal of Tanzania as poorer than it is. As eloquently articulated by Mzee Mbegu, the GDP Per Capita averages - be it the conservative $ 600 or the upper licentious $ 1500 - apart from being very low still, are portraying an affluence that is not reflected in the vast part of the country, especially rural Tanzania, due to the fact that a few Chenges and Manji make a good portion of the national GDP, while many average farmers make do with way less than $ 600.

If you want to discard GDP and adopt some other quality of life measurements, we are atually deteriorating. Literacy levels are going down compared to the 70's and 80's.

A sage once said a definite way of measuring progress is comparing your own performance. Even if we dispute the dismal scientist's suspicious tools, how are we doing compared to yesterday? Is our meagre economic advancement even enough to accommodate our population growth?

I believe the same problems faced in Tanzania are faced in most of these other poor countries, hence giving the poor indicators an evening effect.At the end of the comparison.

Some interesting trends can be spotted at

[media]http://earthtrends.wri.org/pdf_library/country_profiles/eco_cou_834.pdf[/media]

 

[Nyani Ngabu]

Ebana eeeh....kwa nini usiandike kwa lugha yetu ya kiswahili ili wengi wetu tukuelewe unazungumzia nini? Mimi sijakuelewa kwa sababu unatumia maneno "magumu" ya kiingereza. Au hujui kiswahili?

 

[Pundit]

Ebana eeeh....kwa nini usiandike kwa lugha yetu ya kiswahili ili wengi wetu tukuelewe unazungumzia nini? Mimi sijakuelewa kwa sababu unatumia maneno "magumu" ya kiingereza. Au hujui kiswahili?

Mustakabali wako ughaibuni pasi umadhuhuri wa kujieleza na utanashati wa fasihi kwa kuchelea lugha kama kinda lichelealo kupaa unakuwa finyu kama mchuzi wa paa ulokosa viungo, aghalabu malegevu haya yatakugharimu mapana.

The point is, if it is the ideas and flow that you can't touch, even if I write in Swahili you will whine and neigh.

I know I probably flossed too much, but I didn't start it, did'nt mean to, just challenging the collective bar to be raised rather than lower what is really a very basic command of the English language.I'm not talking too fast, you are listening too slow.

 

[Nyani Ngabu]

Mustakabali wako ughaibuni pasi umadhuhuri wa kujieleza na utanashati wa fasihi kwa kuchelea lugha kama kinda lichelealo kupaa unakuwa finyu kama mchuzi wa paa ulokosa viungo, aghalabu malegevu haya yatakugharimu mapana.

The point is, if it is the ideas and flow that you can't touch, even if I write in Swahili you will whine and neigh.

I know I probably flossed too much, but I didn't start it, did'nt mean to, just challenging the collective bar to be raised rather than lower what is really a very basic command of the English language.I'm not talking too fast, you are listening too slow.

What do you mean?

 

[Masanja]

Haya Kuhani na Pundit.
Break it down kwa sisi mambumbu.



Mimi simuelewi Mkuu Moshi.
GDP per capita ni average kwa hiyo haina maana kuwa kila mtanzania anazalisha hivyo. Hii inatisha zaidi katika mazingira ya siku hizi ambapo ni watanzania wengi tu ambao ni dola milionea ( Mzee Vijisenti etc etc). Maana yake huyo masikini hata kile kidogo alichonacho ananyang'anywa na wajanja. Wengi wa watanzania wanazalisha na kupata below this amount. Mkuu Moshi, safiri Tanzania na utaelewa kuwa kuna idadi kubwa ya watu ambao hata katika huyo uchumi uchwara wetu hawamo. Wanavaa shuka, wanakula mihogo na kisamvu wanacholima na wakunywa pombe za kienyeji ambayo wanapewa kwa kutoa huduma ( kuwalimia wengine etc.). Wanapougua wanakula mwaarubaini au wanaenda kwa mtaalam ambaye malipo yake ni kuku au mayai! Watu hata senti ya kununua pini hawana! Wapo kwetu. Ni wengi tu lakini rada yetu haiwaoni.

Tembea, ndugu yangu, na utaona hata hizi pengine tumependelewa.

Fundi ndugu yangu,

Yaani post yako imegusa sana hisia zangu. Yaani uliyoandika ndiyo kweli tupu! Ila wengi bado tupo kwenye state of denial.

Huko vijijini mzee watu wanaishi kwenye stone age! kuna watu hata kodi ya kichwa ile ya shillingi elfu mbili kwa mwaka hawawezi kulipa. Mtoto akiugua..WANAMUACHIA MUNGU AFANYE MAAMUZI! Uwezo wa kwenda hospitali hawana!

Nikupe mfano: Kijijini kwangu juzi juzi tuu kabla hiyo kodi haijafutwa...ilikuwa watendaji wa serikali wakipita kufanya msako wa hiyo kodi (2000.00 kwa mwaka) watu wanakimbia porini mpaka jioni! Wengi niliwalipia..wengi nilishindwa! nimekwenda juzi kijijini..nikapita mtaani nikaulizia jamaa yangu ambaye nimekuwa naye tangu utoto...nikaambiwa anaumwa..kwenda nyumbani kwake (anakaa na mama yake kwenye nyumba ya makuti)..jamaa amekaa ndani for TWO years! hata hospitali hana pesa ya kumpeleka! Tatizo ni miguu-ugonjwa unaotibika kabisa!....Mama yake..ndo huyo hata kununua chumvi ni mgogoro! Guys acheni bwana utani na hizi theory zetu za GDP! huko vijijini hali ni ngumu mno! na ndiko 80% ya watanzania wanakokaa!

Yaani apathy iliyoko vijijini ni kubwa mno kiasi kwamba wengine hata kupiga kura wanaona haina umuhimu kabisa na wako tayari ukimpa hata chupa ya pombe ya kienyeji kama (kimpumu, rubisi au mgoligoli) basi atakupa kura. Mabadiriko tunayoyasema hapa yatahitaji kichwa kweli kweli kuyasimamia.

Hivi hujawahi kujiuliza..tangu tuko primary tunaambiwa zaidi ya asilimia 80% wanaishi vijijini na wanategemea jembe la mkono. Lakini mpaka leo statistics ni hizo hizo hazijabadilika! WATU WANALIMA SEDENTARY FARMING. Yaani hata chakula cha kuwatosheleza hakipo!

Hapo tunaongelea social services..lakini ukigusa vitu kama mahakama, zahanati, nk ndo kabisa..hali ni mbaya! Unaweza kukuta hakimu wa mahakama ya mwanzo au mganga (RMA) anaheshimika sana kuliko hata DC maana wao ndo wanadeal na wananchi na baadhi wanakula rushwa sana (rushwa ya pombe, kuku, nk)...

Wakuu, Tanzania ni yetu sote..siyo mimi, siyo Bob, siyo Pundit wala Fundi..HAKUNA ANAYEPENDA UMASIKINI UWE BADGE OF HONOUR YA WATANZANIA. Inauma and Iam sure wote hapa tunajitahidi kadri ya uwezo wetu. Lakini lazima tukubali hali halisi kwamba hali yetu ni mbaya. Baada ya hapo turudi nyuma kama taifa tutafute msatakabali wetu.

Tunaweza kuargue kwa kutumia taaluma zetu..lakini upande wa pili wa shillingi utatusuta sana!

 

[Pundit]

What do you mean?

You exceedingly effusive tempting flatterer. I resolutely repudiate the repugnant reduction of my recognitive abilities to believe you are genuine in this gullibly guised gimmick goaded at goatherding geniuses from the goal of the GDP glib.

 

[Pundit]

Fundi ndugu yangu,

Yaani post yako imegusa sana hisia zangu. Yaani uliyoandika ndiyo kweli tupu! Ila wengi bado tupo kwenye state of denial.

Huko vijijini mzee watu wanaishi kwenye stone age! kuna watu hata kodi ya kichwa ile ya shillingi elfu mbili kwa mwaka hawawezi kulipa. Mtoto akiugua..WANAMUACHIA MUNGU AFANYE MAAMUZI! Uwezo wa kwenda hospitali hawana!

Nikupe mfano: Kijijini kwangu juzi juzi tuu kabla hiyo kodi haijafutwa...ilikuwa watendaji wa serikali wakipita kufanya msako wa hiyo kodi (2000.00 kwa mwaka) watu wanakimbia porini mpaka jioni! Wengi niliwalipia..wengi nilishindwa! nimekwenda juzi kijijini..nikapita mtaani nikaulizia jamaa yangu ambaye nimekuwa naye tangu utoto...nikaambiwa anaumwa..kwenda nyumbani kwake (anakaa na mama yake kwenye nyumba ya makuti)..jamaa amekaa ndani for TWO years! hata hospitali hana pesa ya kumpeleka! Tatizo ni miguu-ugonjwa unaotibika kabisa!....Mama yake..ndo huyo hata kununua chumvi ni mgogoro! Guys acheni bwana utani na hizi theory zetu za GDP! huko vijijini hali ni ngumu mno! na ndiko 80% ya watanzania wanakokaa!

Yaani apathy iliyoko vijijini ni kubwa mno kiasi kwamba wengine hata kupiga kura wanaona haina umuhimu kabisa na wako tayari ukimpa hata chupa ya pombe ya kienyeji kama (kimpumu, rubisi au mgoligoli) basi atakupa kura. Mabadiriko tunayoyasema hapa yatahitaji kichwa kweli kweli kuyasimamia.

Hivi hujawahi kujiuliza..tangu tuko primary tunaambiwa zaidi ya asilimia 80% wanaishi vijijini na wanategemea jembe la mkono. Lakini mpaka leo statistics ni hizo hizo hazijabadilika! WATU WANALIMA SEDENTARY FARMING. Yaani hata chakula cha kuwatosheleza hakipo!

Hapo tunaongelea social services..lakini ukigusa vitu kama mahakama, zahanati, nk ndo kabisa..hali ni mbaya! Unaweza kukuta hakimu wa mahakama ya mwanzo au mganga (RMA) anaheshimika sana kuliko hata DC maana wao ndo wanadeal na wananchi na baadhi wanakula rushwa sana (rushwa ya pombe, kuku, nk)...

Wakuu, Tanzania ni yetu sote..siyo mimi, siyo Bob, siyo Pundit wala Fundi..HAKUNA ANAYEPENDA UMASIKINI UWE BADGE OF HONOUR YA WATANZANIA. Inauma and Iam sure wote hapa tunajitahidi kadri ya uwezo wetu. Lakini lazima tukubali hali halisi kwamba hali yetu ni mbaya. Baada ya hapo turudi nyuma kama taifa tutafute msatakabali wetu.

Tunaweza kuargue kwa kutumia taaluma zetu..lakini upande wa pili wa shillingi utatusuta sana!

Katika "The Chronic" ya Dr. Dre kuna Skit moja inasema

"This should be played at high volume, probably in a residential area"

Inaumiza sana, watu kibao hata hiyo GDP ya $ 600 hawaioni!

 

[Nyani Ngabu]

You exceedingly effusive tempting flatterer. I resolutely repudiate the repugnant reduction of my recognitive abilities to believe you are genuine in this gullibly guised gimmick goaded at goatherding geniuses from the goal of the GDP glib.

Come on man, what is this now? What exactly do you mean, sir? I'm finding it harder to understand what you are saying because you use "big" words. Can you use small words?