Obviously we are not talking about microsecond forex movements on NADEX here.
We are talking about macroeconomic projection under ceteris paribus. Anything else is subject to Chaos Theory and, inevitably, an exercise in futility.
Kabla ya kufika namba sita, namba mbili nishaongelea more exports (international trade)
Sasa kama nishaongelea exports namba mbili hapo, kwanini unaona namba sita kuna contradiction? Kwanini unaona namba sita kuko restricted kwenye local market wakati tushaongelea uchumi wenye exports hapo namba mbili juu?
Kwanini unajaribu ku isolate local market wakati nchi hii inafanya biashara za kimataifa?
Unapoongeza uchimbaji wa dhahabu Bulyanhulu, na kuuza sana dhahabu nje, na kuongeza balance of trade,na kuweza kujenga kiwanda cha kutengeneza pini nchini kiasi usihitaji kununua pini kutoka Marekani, na kwa hiyo kupunguza mahitaji yako ya dola za Kimarekani, hilo halifanyi hela yako kupanda thamani kwa kulinganisha na dola ya Kimarekani?
Kupanda thamani kwa hela A against B ni function ya supply and demand.
Ukihitaji ku import zaidi unahitaji hela za watu wa nje zaidi na kwa sababu unahitaji zaidi, thamani ya hela zao inapanda.
Ukiwa una export zaidi, huhitaji sana hela za watu wa nje zaidi na kwa sababu huhitaji hela zao zaidi, thamani ya hela zao inashuka kulinganisha na thamani ya hela zako.
Hela ni bidhaa tu kamabidhaa nyingine na iko subject to the same laws of demand and supply. Na unavyozidisha production na exports, na kupunguza imports, automatically unapandisha hela yako thamani kulinganisha na hela za watu wa nje wanaonunua vitu kwako zaidi kuliko wewe unavyonunua kwao.
Why is that so hard to understand while it is a simple demand and supply issue?
Unapokataa "6: Driving the price of foreign currency down is the same thing as local currency appreciation." ni kama unamkatalia mtu anayesema "Ukiwa na ndoo yenye hewa tupu, kuijaza ndoo hiyo maji ni kuondoa hewa"
If you have a binary relationship (for the sake of simplicity) between the USD and TZS, the USD depreciating because of more demand on the US side for Tanzanian goods is the same as the TZS appreciating because of better balance of trade with the US.
If more Americans chase few TZS to buy more Tanzanian produced goods, and very few Tanzanians chase USD to buy American produced goods (because they produce and buy almost everything locally) the TZS will appreciate relative to the USD.
Why is that simple supply and demand concept so hard to grasp?