Shilingi ya Tanzania kuipiku dollar ya Marekani

[TAJIRI MSOMI]

Masuala ya uchumi na fedha wanayajua wachaga, ninyi mlioenda shule mmekaria kutudanganya tu na theory zenu zisizofanya kazi

Swali tu dogo, Dola ya marekeni inafanya vema,je huko kuna wachaga uliowasema???,
Kupanda na kushuka kwa thamani ya pesa hutegemea zaidi upatikanaji na Uhitaji wa pesa zako, Ili wahitaji wa pesa zako( Pesa za nchi yako) basi zalisha mali na uwambie wageni wanunue vitu vya pesa ya nchi yako tu hapo uhitaji wa pesa utapanda na thamani yake pia itapanda.

Hi ni sawa tu na biashara ya wachaga ukitaka bei ya sukari ipande ficha iwe inapatikana kidogo then wahitaji wakiwa wengi wenyewe watakua wanapandishana bei ya kununulia.

 

[Al-Watan]

Hapo kwenye blue nakubaliana na wewe kabisa kwa asilimia 100%. Na kuna sababu nyingi sana za kusabisha inflation kuwa kubwa kwa nchi ila cha muhimu kudhibiti inflation kupanda.

Hapo kwenye red mkuu si kweli sababu goods au services haziwezi kupandisha thamani ya pesa na haijawahi kutokea kwenye uchumi huu wa sasa.

Under ceteris paribus.

More production of highly desirable good and services will lead to more exports.

More exports will lead to a better balance of trade for locals.

A better balance of trade for locals will lead to less imports.

Less imports will lead to less demand for foreign currency.

Less demand for foreign currency, by classical laws of demand, supply and price, will drive the price of foreign currency down.

Driving the price of foreign currency down is the same thing as local currency appreciation.

This is how more production leads to currency appreciation.

This is why the Yuan is appreciating so much that the Chinese are manipulating it to keep it low to promote exports.

Soma hapa wameeleza sababu za currency appreciation. Increased production as in better trade balance ni mojawapo.

Currency Appreciation

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[born again pagan]

Haiwezekani mkuu, ni sawa na kusema tuongeze upana wa mipaka ya nchi hadi KENYA yote , Uganda yote Rwanda na Burundi tuite Tanzania!
hizi nchi zina wenyewe sio mali yetu, hata hizi currency zimeanzishwa na wenyewe, Kazi ya Benki kuu ni hiyo kuongeza au kupunguza value ya pesa. Tambua BOT si mali ya watanzania. Ni mali ya Illuminatti/Jesuits wa Vatican, Hao jamaa wanaimiliki hadi Federal Reserve bank ya USA za zingine zote Duniani...

Just an Illusion...!

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[Al-Watan]

HVI HIZI HABARI ZA ILLUMINAT/JESUIT WA VATICAN HUWA MNAZITOA WAPI?

Mtu akianza kuongelea Illuminati namuona teenager anayeshinda Youtube bila kujua mambo deep.

Kuna watu wana international cabals za ku manipulate finance, lakini hawapo that organized na centralized na Illuminati wenyewe walishauawa zamani sana.

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[sinajinasasa]

Swali tu dogo, Dola ya marekeni inafanya vema,je huko kuna wachaga uliowasema???,
Kupanda na kushuka kwa thamani ya pesa hutegemea zaidi upatikanaji na Uhitaji wa pesa zako, Ili wahitaji wa pesa zako( Pesa za nchi yako) basi zalisha mali na uwambie wageni wanunue vitu vya pesa ya nchi yako tu hapo uhitaji wa pesa utapanda na thamani yake pia itapanda.

Hi ni sawa tu na biashara ya wachaga ukitaka bei ya sukari ipande ficha iwe inapatikana kidogo then wahitaji wakiwa wengi wenyewe watakua wanapandishana bei ya kununulia.

sio kweli! wewe unaleta swagga za kishule kwenye hali halisi, mimi naamini ni manipulation tu ya Central benk, hakuna uhusiano wa demand and supply....unaweza ukawa na reserve currency za kutosha na bado hela yako isiwe na thamani. Hivi wewe hiyo thamani ya dollar kwa siku unadhani inapangwa hapo BOT? value yake inapangwa na bankers wa Illuminatti waliopo Wallstreet, Manhattan, NY state.

Yaani jaribu kununua sarafu ya Kenya, inunulie dollar then nunua madafu then uza tena nunua Yen, utaona mfanano hakuna kupishana sana. Ukiona hivyo ni mchezo wa currency unafanyika.

 

[EWGM's]

1: More production of highly desirable good and services will lead to more exports.

2: More exports will lead to a better balance of trade for locals.

3: A better balance of trade for locals will lead to less imports.

4: Less imports will lead to less demand for foreign currency.

5: Less demand for foreign currency, by laws of demand, supply and price, will drive the price of foreign currency down.

6: Driving the price of foreign currency down is the same thing as local currency appreciation.

7: This is how more production leads to currency appreciation.

8: This is why the Yuan is appreciating so much that the Chinese are manipulating it to keep it low to promote exports.

Soma hapa wameeleza sababu za currency appreciation. Incteased productiin ni mojawapo.

Currency Appreciation

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Mkuu hizi sequential statements umezitoa wapi? Ziko very vague & contradictive.

Nimezipa number ili tuwe sawa wote na maelezo yangu.

First line iko sawa to some extent, lakini second, third and fourth lines zimeacha uhalisia wa uchumi wa kibiashara. Sababu kwa uchumi wa sasa wa kibiashara ni mara nyingi sana watu wanafanya trade kidijitali.

Hivyo demand and supply law kwenye firth line ina-play part ndogo sana hasa hasa kwenye sarafu sababu biashara ya nchi moja haiwezi kushusha au kuipandisha thamani ya sarafu ua nchi nyingine.

Ndipo naposema line ya sita inajichanganya sababu unapoongelea export ni international market lkn inapokuja kwenye domestic ni local market sasa inakuwaje local market iweze kusababisha kushuka au kupanda kwa thamanai ya sarafu hususani ya nchi nyingine?

 

[Al-Watan]

Mkuu hizi sequential statements umezitoa wapi? Ziko very vague & contradictive.

Nimezipa number ili tuwe sawa wote na maelezo yangu.

First line iko sawa to some extent, lakini second, third and fourth lines zimeacha uhalisia wa uchumi wa kibiashara. Sababu kwa uchumi wa sasa wa kibiashara ni mara nyingi sana watu wanafanya trade kidijitali.

Hivyo demand and supply law kwenye firth line ina-play part ndogo sana hasa hasa kwenye sarafu sababu biashara ya nchi moja haiwezi kushusha au kuipandisha thamani ya sarafu ua nchi nyingine.

Ndipo naposema line ya sita inajichanganya sababu unapoongelea export ni international market lkn inapokuja kwenye domestic ni local market sasa inakuwaje local market iweze kusababisha kushuka au kupanda kwa thamanai ya sarafu hususani ya nchi nyingine?

Obviously we are not talking about microsecond forex movements on NADEX here.

We are talking about macroeconomic projection under ceteris paribus. Anything else is subject to Chaos Theory and, inevitably, an exercise in futility.

Kabla ya kufika namba sita, namba mbili nishaongelea more exports (international trade)

Sasa kama nishaongelea exports namba mbili hapo, kwanini unaona namba sita kuna contradiction? Kwanini unaona namba sita kuko restricted kwenye local market wakati tushaongelea uchumi wenye exports hapo namba mbili juu?

Kwanini unajaribu ku isolate local market wakati nchi hii inafanya biashara za kimataifa?

Unapoongeza uchimbaji wa dhahabu Bulyanhulu, na kuuza sana dhahabu nje, na kuongeza balance of trade,na kuweza kujenga kiwanda cha kutengeneza pini nchini kiasi usihitaji kununua pini kutoka Marekani, na kwa hiyo kupunguza mahitaji yako ya dola za Kimarekani, hilo halifanyi hela yako kupanda thamani kwa kulinganisha na dola ya Kimarekani?

Kupanda thamani kwa hela A against B ni function ya supply and demand.

Ukihitaji ku import zaidi unahitaji hela za watu wa nje zaidi na kwa sababu unahitaji zaidi, thamani ya hela zao inapanda.

Ukiwa una export zaidi, huhitaji sana hela za watu wa nje zaidi na kwa sababu huhitaji hela zao zaidi, thamani ya hela zao inashuka kulinganisha na thamani ya hela zako.

Hela ni bidhaa tu kamabidhaa nyingine na iko subject to the same laws of demand and supply. Na unavyozidisha production na exports, na kupunguza imports, automatically unapandisha hela yako thamani kulinganisha na hela za watu wa nje wanaonunua vitu kwako zaidi kuliko wewe unavyonunua kwao.

Why is that so hard to understand while it is a simple demand and supply issue?

Unapokataa "6: Driving the price of foreign currency down is the same thing as local currency appreciation." ni kama unamkatalia mtu anayesema "Ukiwa na ndoo yenye hewa tupu, kuijaza ndoo hiyo maji ni kuondoa hewa"

If you have a binary relationship (for the sake of simplicity) between the USD and TZS, the USD depreciating because of more demand on the US side for Tanzanian goods is the same as the TZS appreciating because of better balance of trade with the US.

If more Americans chase few TZS to buy more Tanzanian produced goods, and very few Tanzanians chase USD to buy American produced goods (because they produce and buy almost everything locally) the TZS will appreciate relative to the USD.

Why is that simple supply and demand concept so hard to grasp?

 

[TAJIRI MSOMI]

sio kweli! wewe unaleta swagga za kishule kwenye hali halisi, mimi naamini ni manipulation tu ya Central benk, hakuna uhusiano wa demand and supply....unaweza ukawa na reserve currency za kutosha na bado hela yako isiwe na thamani. Hivi wewe hiyo thamani ya dollar kwa siku unadhani inapangwa hapo BOT? value yake inapangwa na bankers wa Illuminatti waliopo Wallstreet, Manhattan, NY state.

Yaani jaribu kununua sarafu ya Kenya, inunulie dollar then nunua madafu then uza tena nunua Yen, utaona mfanano hakuna kupishana sana. Ukiona hivyo ni mchezo wa currency unafanyika.

Mkuu sio kweli kwamba kwenye self regulated market kua kuna mtu hupanga thamani za vitu, ila tu ni upatikanaji na uhitaji wake, neenda tu hata sokoni kwa mazo ya jumla uliza kama kuna mtu huwa anawapangia bei, utasikia tu kua leo kuna mahindi mengi sana ndio maana bei imeshuka, simila to fedha zikiwa zinapatikana kirahisi bei yake hushuka

Umesahau mwaka jana bei ya dola ilivyopanda about $1 for 2300TZS+, ilitokana na kuwa reserve ya dolla imepungua nchini hivyo BOT walifanya kila linalowezekana kupata dolla ili kuishusha thamani yake, hakuna shetani mwingine hapo,hizo za illuminati, Jessuit ect hazina maana na wala hazipo haziexist, nenda kaulize mtu yeyote BOT atakuambia wanavyo fanya mkuu

Change your mind think possitive utaelewa ninachomaanisha

 

[Henge]

Haiwezekani mkuu, ni sawa na kusema tuongeze upana wa mipaka ya nchi hadi KENYA yote , Uganda yote Rwanda na Burundi tuite Tanzania!
hizi nchi zina wenyewe sio mali yetu, hata hizi currency zimeanzishwa na wenyewe, Kazi ya Benki kuu ni hiyo kuongeza au kupunguza value ya pesa. Tambua BOT si mali ya watanzania. Ni mali ya Illuminatti/Jesuits wa Vatican, Hao jamaa wanaimiliki hadi Federal Reserve bank ya USA za zingine zote Duniani...

jesuit wameingiaje hapo mkuu yaani ninyi bila kusema katoliki hamliziki

 

[Wonderful]

Si "Asavali" ungesema ela mpya ya Tanzania iitwe 'Kibiti' labda?

 

[Bahati furaha]

Mkuu unaweza kufafanua vizuri haya, japo tupate mwanga.

Complete List Of Rothschild Owned And Controlled Banks – Anonymous

 

[Wa kusoma]

Nyuzi kama hizi na majibu kama haya ndiyo vitu vinafaa kupatikana JF.

Hakika huu uzi unaipaisha JF kama Home of great Thinkers

 

[Bishop Hiluka]

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🙂 🙂 🙂 We jamaa wewe! Naku-admire sana...

 

[Al-Watan]

🙂 🙂 🙂 We jamaa wewe! Naku-admire sana...

Hahaaa, kwanini Bishop?

 

[Lavit]

Wanajamvi haswa wachumi nilikuwa naomba kuuliza, hivi kwa mfano Tanzania ikiamua kufuta pesa zake zote na kuanzisha currency mpya labda tukaiita KIDAKA, sasa tukaamua kwamba dola moja iwe sawa na KIDAKA mbili, je inawezekana? na kama haiwezekani ni kwanini? kwani nani anasimaia uanzishwaji wa currency mbona watu wana currency wanaziita kikwao kama kwacha, reale au yen? je wakati zinaanza zilikuwa chini hivyo hivyo? Dah ebu WACHUMI nisaidieni

Thamani ya pesa inaendana na uzalishaji mali, usikiri watu wanakaa wanajiamulia tu!

 

[Al-Watan]

Thamani ya pesa inaendana na uzalishaji mali, usikiri watu wanakaa wanajiamulia tu!

Hii ndiyo kanuni ya msingi kabisa katika hili.

 

[silasc]

Complete List Of Rothschild Owned And Controlled Banks – Anonymous

Aisee! Nimesoma mkuu Bahati furaha .

 

[Lavit]

Inawezekana.

Ila kinachokuza uchumi ni uzalishaji. Si thamani ya hela.

Tukienda soko la dunia mafuta yanauzwa kwa dola za Kimarekani. Wajapani wanapinunua mafuta kutoka Saudi Arabia wananunua kwa dola za Kimarekani. Hawatumii Japanese Yen au Saudi Riyals.

Dola ya Kimarekani ndiyo hela inayotumika sana katika biashara ya kimataifa.

Sasa kama leo dola moja ni Sh 2500, kesho dola moja iwe nusu Kidaka, basi hiyo Kidaka moja itakuwa inabadilishwa kwa shilingi elfu tano za zamani tu.

Zaidi, kuwa na hela yenye thamani kubwa si automatically kuwa na uchumi mzuri.

China kwa miaka mingi wamejitahidi sana hela yao isipande thamani.

Ndiyo. Nchi inaweza kujitahidi hela yao isipande thamani. Tena wamefanya hivyo mpaka Marekani wamelalamika sana kwamba Wachina wanaishusha hela yao thamani makusudi. Waziri wa Fedha wa Obama Timothy Geithner alilisema hili. Donald Trump amekuwa akilisema hili miaka mingi sana na mpaka leo analisema.

Kwa vipi nchi itake hela yake isipande thamani?

Hela ya nchi ikipanda thamani, kuuza bidhaa za nchi hiyo nje inakuwa vigumu sana. Nitakupa mfano.

Ki hamburger cha Marekani ni rahisi sana kufika $2 Marekani. $2 Marekani kutoa kununua hamburger, na $2 nyingine kutoa kununua juisi ukapata lunch ya kujibana actually umekula mlo cheap sana hapo. Kwa wastani unaweza kula lunch ya $6 na kama unataka kutanua unaweza kufikisha hata $30. Sasa fanya hesabu za mtu wa kawaida bongo ki humburger karibu sh 5,000 na kijuice karibu sh 5,000 nyingine. Hiyo hapo ni very cheap lunch ushaondoa sh 10,000. Comparison nikiendeleza unakuta $6 ni karibu sh 15,000 na $30 ni karibu sh 75,000

Ndiyo maana McDonalds ya Marekani haiwezi kuanzisha franchise Dar na kuuza vitu kwa bei za Kimarekani. Hawatafanya biashara kwa sababu dola ina nguvu sana.

China wanakataa kupandisha Yuan kwa sababu China ni a giant exporter. Moja ya sababu unaona kila kitu ni "Made in China" ni kwa sababu Dola moja ni 6.78 Yuan. Wakiipandisha sana thamani Yuan iwe karibu aubiizidi dollar, watashusha exports uchumi utadorora.

Wao kuuza vitu nje kwa urahisi ni muhimu kuliko thamani ya hela yao kuwa kubwa sana.

Kwa hiyo, kuwa na hela yenye thamani sana kunaweza kuharibu uchumi.

Kinachopandisha uchumi si thamani ya hela, ni uzalishaji na kuuza vitu nje.

Nchi inaweza kuwa na hela ambayo haina thamani sana ikawa na uchumi mzuri kuliko nchi yenye hela yenye thamani sana.

Ila, tatizo letu ni kwamba, tuna hela isiyo na thamani, halafu hatuna uzalishaji wa ku export kwa sana. Hii wanaita "the worst of both worlds". Tunapigwa kwa kuwa na hela isiyo na thamani, halafu tunapigwa tena kwa kukosa uzalishaji.

Tungepigwa kumoja tu kwa kuwa na hela isiyo na thamani wakati upande wa uzalishaji tuko fiti, tungeweza ku revenge kwa kutumia hela isiyo na thamani kuongeza exports kama wanavyofanya China. Mpaka tufanye kuwa na hela isiyo na thamani kutusaidia kiuchumi.

Lakini hatufanyi hivyo. Nchi ambayo ina hela isiyo na thamani halafu haina uzalishaji mzuri, inapata matatizo sana inapoagiza vitu kutoka nje. Kwa sababu hela yake haina thamani. Ikienda kununua dola dola zinakuwa za bei ya juu sana. Ikienda kununua mafuta mafuta yanakuwa ya bei ya juu sana. Na kwa vike haina uzalishaji sana, ikitegemea imports, uchumi unashuka.

Geithner Hints at Harder Line on China Trade

Exclusive: Trump calls Chinese 'grand champions' of currency manipulation

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Mkuu Al-Watan nondo zako zimeshiba....

 

[error term]

Wanajamvi haswa wachumi nilikuwa naomba kuuliza, hivi kwa mfano Tanzania ikiamua kufuta pesa zake zote na kuanzisha currency mpya labda tukaiita KIDAKA, sasa tukaamua kwamba dola moja iwe sawa na KIDAKA mbili, je inawezekana? na kama haiwezekani ni kwanini? kwani nani anasimaia uanzishwaji wa currency mbona watu wana currency wanaziita kikwao kama kwacha, reale au yen? je wakati zinaanza zilikuwa chini hivyo hivyo? Dah ebu WACHUMI nisaidieni

Kwanza unatakiwa kujua sababu ya pesa yetu kupoteza dhaman ni nin, kuwa na pesa nyingi ktk mzunguko au kupungua kwa uzalishaji na uwekezaji.
Kitu kinacho fanya pesa ipoteze thaman haraka ni 'capital mobility in capital market' hii huwa kwa kipind kifup na inamadhara makubwa sana. Kama wawekezaji wanaona soko la ndan halina faid wanapesa mitaji yao na kuathiri sana pesa ya ndan.
Sasa kuanzisha fedha mpya kunaweza kukaleta tija kidogo ila sio kiwango kikibwa, ila kuongeza uzalishaji wa ndan na kuwa na mazingira rafik ya kuamasisha uwekezaji wa nje hapo ndipo shilling yetu itakuwa strong. Ila ni nguvu kuwa strong zaid ya US dollar maana US dollar ndio most international reserve currency and most demanded currency kutokana na confidence ya uchum wa US na masoko yao ya mitaji

 

[Al-Watan]

Mkuu Al-Watan nondo zako zimeshiba....

Asante,

Wamenirudisha enzi zangu za "ceteris paribus" . Mwalimu nilikuwa nambakishia marks chache sana mpaka karatasi yangu ya mtihani anataka kubaki nayo aifanye marking scheme.