Kenya Wanajiandaa...
Looming food shortage as Kenya recovers from crisis
Published on April 24, 2008, 12:00 am
By Wandera Ojanji (The East African Standard)
Agricultural experts are concerned by the unfolding food security situation and are warning Kenyans to brace for harder times ahead.
With current food stocks particularly maize, the main staple food quickly running out of stock, the grim prospects of harvests from the main maize growing areas and escalating food prices, it is nothing but an unfolding of a historic calamity.
The Government had projected that the current maize stocks would sustain local needs up to August, this year when a new crop would be harvested. But these may be depleted much faster, according to the National Cereals and Produce Board, citing increased demand for stocks.
The Regional Agricultural Trade Intelligence Network (Ratin) estimates that maize stocks will not be more than 673,743 tonnes by June, which are not sufficient for the country until the next harvest.
But relying on the next harvest is banking against false hope. Agricultural experts are warning of serious declines in production that may fall to as low as 50 per cent of the annual production figures.
Dr Romano Kiome, PS in the Ministry of Agriculture, has raised concerns that only 15 to 50 per cent of land in the North Rift has been prepared, a factor he attributes to post-election violence. Under normal circumstances, 50 to 80 per cent of the land in these areas would be prepared by end of February in readiness for planting.
And with the planting season almost over, his fears appear to have been compounded considering the dismal purchase of maize seeds by farmers in the main maize growing areas.
Sales from Monsanto, one of the leading seed merchants in the country, paint a grim picture. The company has only sold 50 per cent of what it did last year for the long rain seasons, according to Mr Kinyua MMbijjiwe, Monsantos Commercial Acceptance Lead, Africa.
He attributes the low sales to post-election violence that made it impossible to gain access to seed markets.
"It was impossible to distribute seeds to many outlets. Some stores were burnt down or looted during the mayhem. No distributor was willing to stock-up in all the uncertainty."
Monsanto sales were no better in Central Kenya and other parts of the country that did not experience post-election violence. In these areas, the rising costs of fertiliser and fuel are to blame for the low sales. With fertiliser prices rising by more than 110 per cent, most farmers reduced their acreages and, consequently, seed requirements to balance with the amount of fertiliser they could afford.
And it is not that Monsanto had tight competition from other seed merchants.
For they tell similar stories. Farmchem Seedlinks, who market Pioneer Hybrid Maize, state that sales have been exceptionally low, a factor they attribute to many farmers not tilling their land.
Kenya Seed has seen its sales drop by 11 per cent. However, the company believes the rising cost of fuel and fertiliser are the main cause of the drop in sales and not post-election violence as majority of the farmers are still in their farms.
Indeed, the escalating cost of farm inputs has forced many farmers either to cut down on acreage under cultivation of grains like maize and wheat or resort to planting without fertilizer.
The Government acknowledges that the skyrocketing costs of farm inputs have been a major threat to land preparation and planting for the long rains. For instance, the fuel costs for land preparation have risen from Sh1,200 to Sh2,300 per acre. The price of fertilizer has almost doubled from Sh1,850 to Sh3,400 per 50kg bag with Kakamega and Bungoma recording prices as high as Sh4,000.
While the Government has been threatening to institute parallel importation of fertiliser and sell it at a reduced price to farmers, it is a threat that has been overtaken by events and best described as empty. The planting season is nearly over and not a single bag of fertiliser has been imported.
The impact of reduced acreage and non-application of fertiliser may not be obvious now, but will be in August when the current supplies have completely run out.
Reports attributed to Ms Felicia Ndungu, the Trans-Nzoia District Agricultural Officer, indicate that the district will only produce three million bags of maize this season, down from six million last year following reduced acreage under cultivation of the crop from 109,557 hectares to 98,000 hectares.
Uasin Gishu District Agricultural Officer, Ms Grace Kirui, projects production to fall to 3.7 million bags of maize this season down from 4.3 million bags last year. She says the area under maize has declined from 38,445 hectares to 32,293 hectares as farmers have moved to other more lucrative ventures like dairy farming.
But these projections from Kenyas grain basket may be overestimates considering that displaced farmers have been unable to till their land.
More than 150,000 people were displaced in Uasin Gishu and 40,000 others in Trans-Nzoia.
Overall, the national cereal output is likely to reduce considerably, compromising the expected surplus following significant pre- and post-harvest crop losses in Kenyas grain basket in addition to crop losses in the short rains-dependent southeastern lowlands, according to Famine Early Warning Systems Network (Fewsnet).
It is not entirely clear what the exact losses are from the impacts of the disrupted production in key growing areas. The network warns that total crop losses of up to 400,000 tonnes may occur unless normal production and marketing processes are restored in Rift Valley. However, of that quantity, an estimated 100,000 tonnes of the short-rains crop has already been lost to drought.
About 2.52 million tonnes of maize should have been harvested from the 2007 long-rains season.
Last year, Kenya produced 2,759,760 tonnes majority of which came from the long rains season at 2,489,760 tonnes against a national consumption of 2,850,000 tonnes. The deficit was covered through imports from Uganda (100,000 tonnes) and Rwanda (50,000 tonnes), according to Ratin.
The worsening food security is likely to be manifested through scarcity of key food commodities, increased consumer food prices, particularly of staple foods like bread, maize flour and cereals, and decreased livestock and farm-gate prices. The increased food prices will make it difficult for most families to place food on their table unless urgent measures are put in place to address the problem, according to experts.
Ratin warns that maize prices have already responded to the expectation of a tight market, rising by more than 22 per cent in Nairobi during January as compared to December, but remaining close to the six-year average. However, maize prices are 20 per cent higher than the six-year average in Mombasa.
Ratin believes that wholesale prices in Kenya are rising due to speculation. Says he: "Farmers from the grain basket are hoarding maize in anticipation of higher prices as a result of the expected reduced long rains."
According to some traders, farmers are reluctant to release maize to the markets, which has consequently led to supply shortages to key markets and buyers. Kenyas private millers are unable to find grain to purchase despite offering relatively high prices. During the last week of March, most millers were offering on average USD 260 a tonne in Nairobi and USD 226 a tonne in Eldoret, which is a production area.
My Take:
Where is Msolla, where is the National Food Security Board? Where is Kikwete and Pinda? I'll keep reminding you...
