Jacque Maritain
Member
- Mar 6, 2010
- 44
- 10
We are heading towards dangerous waters... God save us..Take our corrupt politicians to hell before they devour us alive....!
Mkishindwa hoja huwa mnaanza fujo, hata hapa unaanzisha hayohayo, hamna cha kusema;
Weka idadi ya barabara za lami kabla ya Kikwete
Weka idadi ya Shule kabla ya Kikwete
Weka idadi ya Waalimu kabla ya Kikwete
Weka idadi ya Zahanati kabla ya Kikwete
Weka idadi ya Viwanda kabla ya Kikwete
Weka idadi ya Utalii kabla ya Kikwete
Weka idadi ya Umeme kabla ya Kikwete
Weka idadi ya Maji kabla ya Kikwete
Weka idadi ya kazi kabla ya Kikwete
Weka idadi ya biashara kabla ya Kikwete
Weka idadi ya umaskini kabla ya Kikwete
Weka idadi ya kilimo kabla ya Kikwete
Weka iadi ya bidhaa zinazopita bandari zetu
Weka akiba ya fedha tulokuwa nayo kabla ya Kikwete
Ukimaliza weka na idadi ya wakati huu wa Kikwete, itayokuwa zaidi ya leo hii wakati wa Kikwete, mimi naihama CCM leo hii.
Analeta stori za kwenye kampeni na wakati hii ni issue yenye kuhitaji immediate actions.Watu wa Gaddafi walikuwa wakiweka mazuri waliyoyafanya bila kuangalia what was the current need or a real problem.Matokeo yake ni kuwa out of touch na kuondolewa madarakani.Faiza kama kweli serikali ya Rais Kikwete imefanya hivyo vyote why the "overall recurrent spending has outpaced revenue and grant financing, contributing to growing fiscal deficits and a rising public debt stock."? Surely, kama biashara imeongezeka means more tax collection for the government. Kama kilimo kimeongezeka means more exportation of agricultural products na sio ku import vitunguu swaumu toka China. Means sukari isingepanda bei kiasi hiki. Kama kazi zimeongezeka means governments is collecting more income tax, etc toka kwa waajiri na wafanya kazi. Means no people complaining about being unemployed.
Overall kama kaongeza ulivyotaja, simply means income and possibly less expenditure from the government. Less expenditure kwa maana kuwa, kwa mfano, kama barabara safi za lami zipo, tutanunua magari ya kawaida tuu badala ya haya ya bei tunayonunua sasa ili kukabidhian na barabara zetu mbovu. Kama kafanya hivyo vyote why our coffers are empty. Kwa nini tunaendelea kukopa tena kwa matumizi ya kawaida tuu?
Personally, naamini kama Rais Kikwete akijifungia mwenyewe kwenye chumba na kutakafari kwa makini hali ya uchumi wa nchi kwa sasa, he will come to the same conclusion that hali sio nzuri and something has to be done tena kwa haraka sana. The evidence is out there. And if I were the President na wewe ni chief economic adviser wangu halafu unaniletea list kama hiyo nakufukuza kazi mara moja. Seriously, as mu adviser utakuwa hunitakii mema. Kiongozi yoyoye needs to concentrate on what need to be done and how, not what have already been done.
Kiongozi yoyoye needs to concentrate on what need to be done and how, not what have already been done.
Nchi kufilisika maana yake nini
Maana yake ni kwamba it cannot pay back its external debt; pia its currency is becoming extremely valueless relative to other currencies; na hii inapelekea a country kutoweza tena to finance its imports (kama oil, machinery etc) comfortably. Kigezo cha dalili za kufilisika kwa kuangalia kushuka kwa thamani ya sarafu ya nchi versus dollar hatuna haja ya kukizungumza kwani hilo tayari ni tatizo hapa nchini.
A: Tuangalie vigezo vingine ili tubaini kama we are bankrupt au hapana. Tuanze na hili ya ' inability to pay back its external debt:
Year Country GDP ($$$) Foreign debt (%of GDP) Foreign Debt ($$$) Total debt service as % of GDP Total debt service as % of exports of goods and services Total reserves as % of total exports GDP growth (annual) 2009 21.3 trillion dollars 34% 7.2 trillion 0.76% 3.5% 47% 6.3% 2008 20.7 28% 5.7 trillion 0.31% 1.3% 48% 7.4% 2007 16.8 29% 4.8 trillion 0.38% 1.2% 57% 7.1% 2006 14.3 28% 3.9 trillion 0.60% 2.4% 55% 6.7%
Ni dhahiri deni la Tanzania limekuwa kama utaangalia column ya 4 kwani ambayo inaonyesha the actual dollars; tusidanganyike na takwimu za wanasiasa wanaziweka katika percentage kwani as you can see in column 3, the figures may fool you.
FaizyFoxxy
Cha kushangaza ni kwamba tunazidi kulemewa na deni huku ‘uchumi wetu' unaisifia kwamba unapaa Kwahiyo kushauri tuache porojo – tazama GDP growth (tazama column ya nane); ukweli ni kwamba uchumi huu unapaa na kuzidi kuwaacha walalahoi; it is not pro – poor growth; tutambue kwamba , kinachobeba hii growth ni exports za gold and we all know the real contribution of gold to this economy; tukitoa gold katika equation ya GDP, levels za uchumi wetu hazitakuwa tofauti sana za za miaka ya 1990s kwani value added in agriculture bado haikuwi kwa kiasi cha maana na hata ile ya manufacturing; pia ukitizama column ya sita utaona kwamba the more we export, the more we pay debts i.e. mapato yetu mengi sana ya exports yanaishia kwenye kulipa deni; na column ya saba inaonyesha kwamba our reserves zilikuwa zinazidi kushuka as we were heading into 2010; kwa kifupi, kwa hili hii nchi lazima itakuwa imefilisika. Huu ndio uchumi uchwara wa Mkullo na Ndullu.
B: Tuangalie Kigezo cha pili cha nchi kufilisika ili tubaini kama kweli wanatusingizia. Hapa tunaangalie JE: Can we as a country pay for our strategic imports za kusukuma uchumi wetu? Tuanze na food imports;
Year Food imports as % of merchandise imports 2009 8.9% 2008 7.7% 2007 11.7% 2006 12%
Kama tunavyoona hapo juu, after 2006, food imports declined into single digits from 12% in 2006; this means we are less able to import food today as we were in 2006; this number must be even lower in 2011;
Vipi kuhusu uwezo wetu wa ku import fuel/mafuta ambayo ndio injini ya uchumi?
Year Fuel imports as % of merchandise imports 2009 22% 2008 29% 2007 29% 2006 24%
It is quite clear from the table above kwamba tumezidi kuwa less and less able to import fuel compared to 2006; na cha ajabu ni kwamba mpaka leo Tanzania is the only country in the region isiyokuwa na strategic reserve ya mafuta; tsunami ikija ukanda huu bandari ziharibike na hivyo kutulazimisha kusimamisha huduma za bandari kwa muda au anything kitokee cha kufanya bandari zetu zisiwe salama kufanya kazi, tutaangamia. Ewe mola tuepushe kwa hilo.
Kwahiyo vipimo viwili vya nchi kufilisika tumeviona hapo juu, kweli tupo huko!
Tumalizie na kuangalia suala la mapato:
Today Tax exemptions in Tanzania is over 30% of the total revenue; mapato yetu mwaka jana yalikuwa 13.5 trillion shillings, na 30% of that means at minimum, tunasamehe kodi (kwenye madini etc) inayofikia at least 4 trillion shillings kwa mwaka; Hii ni ajabu kwani katika mwaka wa fedha 2011 – 2012, mikopo na misaada yote toka nje 3.9 trillion shillings; This means kumbe suala la ushoga na misaada ni la kujitakia. Ama kweli starehe gharama! Vinginevyo Mkullo ukiamua kuacha kusamehe 4 trillion shillings, tutaweza kabisa achana na habari za misaada na ushoga; Kenya hawategemei tena misaada kwenye bajeti kwa miaka mingi sasa
Katika nchi za wenzetu ambao uchumi wao sio uchwara, tax revenue ni kati ya 40 – 45% of the GDP; sisi Tanzania ni around 16% of the GDP ingawa the actual figure is much lower than that; wenzetu Ghana wameamka kwani - wameamua kuongeza direct taxes kwenye sekta mbali mbali kama madini, na kupunguza indirect taxes, VAT in particular ambazo ni mzigo sana kwa wananchi; hatua ya Ghana imewapunguzia wananchi mzigo wa kodi kwa kiasi kikubwa mno huku wakiwaletea Maendeleo kwa kuwatoza kikamilifu wawekezaji wkenye sekta ya madini.Tusisahau kwamba VAT ililetwa na IMF and Worldbank kama njia ya kutufanya tuwe na vyanzo vya mapato ili kwanza tuwe na uwezo wa kulipa madeni ya nchi tajiri; na pili baada ya kuchoshwa kutoa mikopo isiyo na tija mfano 60% of the total budget ya nchi kwenda kwenye matumizi ya posho na mishahara while only 40% of less kwenye shughuli za Maendeleo; wakasema kama ni hivyo tafuteni pesa zenu; lakini tukiamua kama nchi na kusema kuanzia sasa mikataba ya madini itabadilika ili kupata kodi zaidi huko na tutapunguza VAT, IMF and WorldBank wala hawatakuwa na shida na hilo; lakini tatizo ni kwamba hatuna viongozi wa kuthubutu. Sana sana tunabaki kujisifia TUMETHUBUTU, TUMEWEZA NA TUNASONGA MBELE.
Mwalimu Nyerere, tunakukumbuka sana kwani umeondoka na dhana ya kiongozi bora, waliobakia ni bora viongozi.
EMT,
Naona hii mada imegeuzwa kuwa ya kisiasa na mie sio mpenzi sana wa siasa kwani sisupport Chadema, CCM wala chama chochote labda kikianzishwa chama cha maliberali ndio nitakisupport.
Kiufupi mkuu naweza kusema sentesi hii "Numbers do not lie".
Serikali ikifulia sidhani kuna mfanyakazi wa serikali au private sector atakuwa tayari kupunguziwa mshahara peke yao au kuongezewa kodi kama wanavyofanya Ugiriki sasa. Tutagawana umaskini (mafisadi mali zao zichukuliwe zitaifishwe pamoja na jamaa zao na wale wote ambao wamechangia katika janga hili).
Siwezi kujadili siasa kwenye uchumi
Mkuu kwanza hii thread yenyewe ilitakiwa iwekwe kwenye jukwaa la uchumi. Tatizo sisi kila kitu ni siasa tuu.
FF ni kweli serikali nyingi ikiwemo ya Marekani huwa zinakopa lakini hazikopi kama serikali yetu inavyodaiwa kufanya. Wenzetu huwa wana-issue bonds that pay investors interest in exchange for their money. Bond is a certificate of debt (usually interest-bearing or discounted) that is issued by a government in order to raise money. The issuer is required to pay a fixed sum annually until maturity and then a fixed sum to repay the principal. Other countries also increase the money supply by changing banks reserve ratios.
Wakikopa wanakopa kutoka serikali nyingine. Kwa mfano top countries zinazoidai Marekani ni China, Japan, Republic of Ireland, Singapore, Thailand, Mexico, India, Turkey, South Korea, Norway, France na Israel. Ukiangalia baadhi ya hizi nchi sio tajiri sana but governments of these countries elected to lend to the United States considering such a financial transaction to be an investment in their economic futures. Sasa kwetu inadaiwa serikali yetu inakopa directly from local commercial banks. Sasa kama serikali inakopa CRDB, mimi na wewe tutakopa wapi?
Regarding Greece, that country has been living beyond its means since even before it joined the euro, and its rising level of debt has placed a huge strain on the country's economy. The Greek government borrowed heavily and went on something of a spending spree after it adopted the euro. Whilst a lot of money has flowed out of the government's coffers, very little income has been coming in due to among other reasons non collection of tax. In short they spent more than what they earned.
That is exactly what Tanzania's government is doing now. Badala ya ku-impose austerity measures kama wanavyofanya nchi nyingine, au kutafuta njia za ku-maximise income (kama ni vigumu kupunguza matumizi), tuna spend more than what we are earning. Matokeo yake serikali inashia kukopa kwenye mabenki. Sasa itafikia wakati ambapo hayo mabenki yataona it is no longer viable to lend the government. Kuona hivyo serikali itaanza kulazimisha mabenki kuikopesha including the possibility of the nationalizing the banks if they don't lend. Then, a crisis of confidence could spark a run on the banks as people including you and me withdrew their money, making the problem even worse.
When banks become big holders of government's debt, an "orderly" default could mean a substantial part of the debt being rescheduled so that repayments are pushed back decades. A "disorderly" default could mean much of this debt not being repaid - ever. Either way, it would be extremely painful for banks and bondholders. Ndio mana Eurozone countries wanahaingaika usiku na mchana to bail Greece out (tena kwa mara ya pili). The Greek prime minister nafikri kajiuzulu leo. Sasa sisi tukifia stage hiyo nani atatu bail out? Kenya, Uganda na Rwanda?
Watu wa uchumi waelezee kitaalumu zaidi. This is very serious.
Watu wanaongelea facts za uchumi kupanda na kushuka wewe unaleta mipasho ya siasa sijui Kikwete akesema hafi mtu kwa njaa kwani hiyo ndiyo dalili ya uchumi kukua?, kama hujui fani fulani utaonekana wa maana sana ukiwasoma wenzako kuliko kuleta ubishi usiokuwa na maana, halafu si kila thread uchangie au ujifanye unajua.Tafadhali, kuna mkopo usioelezwa ni wanini siku hizi? IMF wana sheria zao za mikopo, na la kwanza inabidi wakupe masharti ambayo kama huyatimizi hawakupi, sasa wewe unaleta habari za kufikirika, mashangi sijui nini, wewe barabara alizotuwachia Nyerere hapa bila magari kama yale unafikiri kuna sehemu utazipita? wachaaa, usione sasa hivi Kikwete anajitahidi kutandaza mabarabara ukadhani ndio kote kupo hivyo.
Halafu unaongelea safari za kikwete, unafikiri anakwenda kucheza huko anakokwenda? ni nani anaetaka kusafiri kila siku? inafaa umpe sifa Kikwete kwa kufanya kazi kwa bidii usiku na mchana. Wewe hii Tanzania ya Kikwete leo ndio Tanzania ilivyokuwa hapo nyuma? maendeleo kila pembe lakini mnajidai kuyafumbia macho. Kikwete ndio Rais pekee wa Tanzania aliotangaza rasmi "hafi mtu kwa njaa hapa" na kweli, ni nani mwingine ambae hawajafa watu kwa njaa Tanzania hii.
Unaujuwa wakati wa Nyerere wewe> au unausikia tu? tulikuwa hatujui cha kukila kesho nini, unapanga foleni hjui kinachotolewa leo nini> kama ni mchele au unga au sukari. Leo unakwenda kuchaguwa untaka mchele wa wapi? Mbeya, Shinyanga, Ifakara, Mwanza, Pakistan, Thailand, India? yalikuwepo hayo wakati wa Mtakatifu? wacheni chuki binafsi tazameni ukweli.
Mchambuzi figures zako zina matatizo.
Tanzania GDP in 2010 - $23.06 Billion
Tanzania GDP in 2009 - $21.368 Billion
Tanzania GDP in 2008- $ 20.715 Billion
Hembu angalia vizuri figures zako maana wewe umequote in terms of Trillion dollars naona they are misleading. Vile vile total government debt is quoted in terms of us dollars which is also suspicious. Kwasababu deni la taifa hadi August , 2011 $12.131 Billion (19.47 Trillion Tshs) (i.e. Total debt outstanding). Hembu pitia tena taarifa zako.
Mbona Marekani haijaambiwa kuhusu ukameruni..? Kuna tangazo moja anaongea Mpoto.,KOPA KWA SABABU MAALUMU... We unaelewa nini hapo? Kuna wakati Nyerere alisema... RUSHWA YA MAREKANI NA TZ NI TOFAUTI...Merekani wanakopa itakuwa Tanzania? mnanchekesha!
Hii ishu ni serious,
Hembu angalia Statistics hizi za mwezi August, 2011.
1. Our total debt stock balooned from 15 Trillion Tshs in February to around 19.41 Trillion Tshs.
2. 48.6% of government debts are held by Commercial banks, Central Bank (BOT) holds 26.4%, Pension funds hold 18.3% and the rest of individuals hold 2.2%, insurance 4.5%- Serikali inakopa zaidi kwenye commercial banks na kwa maana hivyo watu binafsi hawana nafasi ya kukopa huko katika commercial banks. Vile vile interest on borrowing ndio maana haishuki kwani mabenki yanajeuri ya kuringa kwasababu hawahitaji kutukopesa sisi watu binafsi.
Hatuzungumzii bado interest rate katika mikopo hii ya serikali.
Hii ishu ni serious,
Hembu angalia Statistics hizi za mwezi August, 2011.
1. Our total debt stock balooned from 15 Trillion Tshs in February to around 19.41 Trillion Tshs.
2. 48.6% of government debts are held by Commercial banks, Central Bank (BOT) holds 26.4%, Pension funds hold 18.3% and the rest of individuals hold 2.2%, insurance 4.5%- Serikali inakopa zaidi kwenye commercial banks na kwa maana hivyo watu binafsi hawana nafasi ya kukopa huko katika commercial banks. Vile vile interest on borrowing ndio maana haishuki kwani mabenki yanajeuri ya kuringa kwasababu hawahitaji kutukopesa sisi watu binafsi.
Hatuzungumzii bado interest rate katika mikopo hii ya serikali.
Ndullu by default is the debt manager of our economy; kwahiyo he should be the first one to call on the government o cut borrowing from BOT as well as diversify the government's commercial borrowing; in doing so, itasaidia monetary policy devised majuzi na Ndullu (increasing bank rate and cash reserve requirements) itekelezeke kama lengo lake ni kupunguza money in circulation in hopes that it will reduce the pressure on prices;
At this stage, the government should resort to the lowest amount of borrowing possible from BOT and look at funds elsewhere (not commercial banks); a reduction in government borrowing from the BOT would also help curb the risk of the budget deficit becoming monetized thus fuel inflation even further; Ndullu has to lower the government's stock of bank borrowing and incentivize the commercial banks to lend more to private institutions, SMEs in particular.
holy crapMkishindwa hoja huwa mnaanza fujo, hata hapa unaanzisha hayohayo, hamna cha kusema;
Weka idadi ya barabara za lami kabla ya Kikwete
Weka idadi ya Shule kabla ya Kikwete
Weka idadi ya Waalimu kabla ya Kikwete
Weka idadi ya Zahanati kabla ya Kikwete
Weka idadi ya Viwanda kabla ya Kikwete
Weka idadi ya Utalii kabla ya Kikwete
Weka idadi ya Umeme kabla ya Kikwete
Weka idadi ya Maji kabla ya Kikwete
Weka idadi ya kazi kabla ya Kikwete
Weka idadi ya biashara kabla ya Kikwete
Weka idadi ya umaskini kabla ya Kikwete
Weka idadi ya kilimo kabla ya Kikwete
Weka idadi ya bidhaa zinazopita bandari zetu kabla ya Kikwete
Weka akiba ya fedha tulokuwa nayo kabla ya Kikwete
Ukimaliza weka na idadi ya wakati huu wa Kikwete, itayokuwa zaidi ya leo hii wakati wa Kikwete, mimi naihama CCM leo hii.