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Soldiers arrested over alleged assassination plot on Mugabe
By Our Correspondent
HARARE, June 8, 2007 - President Robert Mugabe is said to have survived an assassination plot on Sunday night after mainly junior and middle ranking officers led by three senior officers tried to bomb his two residences in Harare.
Impeccable sources told The Zimbabwe Times that following the plot, believed to have been part of a coup attempt, all soldiers have been placed on high alert.
All members of the Presidential Guard have been told that they would now keep their guns instead of surrendering them at the armoury as is the practice at the end of their shifts.
The deputy commander of the Air Force of Zimbabwe, Air Vice Marshal Elson Moyo and Major General Engelbert Rugeje, the Quartermaster General at Army Headquarters, are said to have been detained after being implicated in the attempted coup and assassination plot.
Moyo and Rugeje were arrested on Wednesday afternoon.
Another senior army officer, Colonel Ben Ncube has also been fingered in the attempted palace coup against Mugabe ; his whereabouts could not be established yesterday
An impeccable source, who is a colonel in the Zimbabwe National Army, told The Zimbabwe Times that 360 junior soldiers had also been arrested as investigations spread.
"An assortment of small weapons went missing at KG VI amoury, Two Brigade and Inkomo Barracks and inquiries appear to link the disappearance of the weapons to the failed coup."
The planned coup coincided with a power blackout which plunged the entire capital in darkness.
The coup was foiled when alert soldiers spotted two military planes re-fuelling at Manyame Air Base.
Further inquiries by the soldiers established that the two planes were carrying heavy bombs, resulting in the immediate arrest of the two pilots.
The Zimbabwe Times is reliably informed that one of the planes was supposed to drop its lethal cargo at Zimbabwe House - Mugabe's official residence - while another was supposed to pulverize his private residence in the plush suburb of Borrowdale Brook.
Mugabe, who was supposed to officiate at a pass out parade of junior officers today, will now be represented by defence minister, Sydney Sekeramai.
The majority of the arrested junior soldiers were taken from the Paratroopers Regiment at Inkomo, a unit formerly headed by Rugeje.
Sekeramai refused to comment.
However, on Monday afternoon, a large number of soldiers were secretelly taken to an Army Court Marshal by heavily armed Commandos and Millitary police officers.
Weekly economic bulletin
8th June, 2007
The Zimbabwean economy is managed through a mixed bag of policy contradictions. The current inflation levels of more than 3700%, is a clear indication of policy compulsion with in the government and its administrative arms. In this first issue of the Weekly Economic bulletin we analyze the reasons why our inflation levels have reached to an all time high outside a civil war environment. We also make recommendations on the measures which the government can implement in order to curb the further collapse of the economy.
The Zimbabwean situation can be said to be emanating from two main angles namely demand pull and cost push inflation. The former is when the liquidity levels in the economy outstrip the supply side. This is the current situation in the country whereby too much money is chasing few goods. This has been triggering a vicious cycle of inflation since the citizenry will be competing for the few goods which are being manufactured by our industries currently operating below 30% capacity. Zimbabwe requires 2 000 000 tonnes of maize to survive till the next harvest. However, the supply side of the economy can only produce 700 000 tonnes. This leaves the country with a demand deficit of 1 300 000 tonnes.
Crippled with such a food deficit, the government has been printing money to buy foreign currency for its international obligations such as paying the foreign debt currently pegged at US$3.9 billion whilst the internal debt stands at US$208 million. In May 2006, the government printed ZWD 60 trillion which it injected in the economy, purchasing foreign currency to settle the International Monetary Fund (IMF) debt. With a 1 300 000 tonnes food deficit, the economy was flooding with 60 trillion surplus cash, by so doing, it stimulates demand pull inflation.
If the government is committed to fighting inflation, then it has to start implementing prudent macro-economic policies. The first critical step to take is to stop printing money. Economists may differ on the interpretations of economic activities but they concur that printing money is inflationary. The solution is also supported by renowned economist, Fisher who propounded the Fisher Equation of Exchange which outlines that the immediate step any country has to embark on in its drive to curb inflation is to regulate the supply of money (M3).
The government must reduce its compulsive expenditure model of governance, through its fiscal policy. The government expenditure on principle is not productive since it borrows to consume. The current cabinet is too big for a country currently going through economic turmoil. Since 2000, the economy has been run through budget deficits with supplementary budgets equal to or exceeding the initial budget.
On the other hand the inflation is a function of costs of production. Due to the current exchange rate of 1USD: 250ZWD, which does not make economic rationality, the countrys foreign currency supply is mainly supplied from the grey/black market where the USD is floating between ZWD50 000 and 60 000. At such expensive rates the imports will become expensive passing on the price to the final consumer, in the process pushing up inflation.
At this stage, Zimbabwe has reached a stage of stagflation, a process whereby an increase in the prices does not lead to an increase in the quantity of goods produced in the economy. The general principle in functional economies is that an increase in the prices of commodities would lead to supplier incentives to produce more goods to the market as it becomes profitable and sustainable to cover costs of production.
The Zimbabwean economic situation on the other hand is abnormal, increase in prices are not stimulating supply in the market. Inflation and unemployment are at hyper levels with unemployment pegged at 85% implying that the national fiscus is heavily strained as the government has to lure taxes from the 15% employed.
Inflation, stagflation and the crisis of governance!
Zimbabwean inflation rates since Independence
Year Rate Year Rate .............................
1980 7% 1981 14% 1982 15% 1983 19% 1984 10%
1985 10% 1986 15% 1987 10% 1988 8% 1989 14%
1990 17% 1991 48% 1992 40% 1993 20% 1994 25%
1995 28% 1996 16% 1997 20% 1998 48% 1999 58%
2000 56% 2001 132% 2002 139% 2003 385% 2004 624%
2005 586% 2006 1281% 2007 3714%
Habari zaidi zinapatikana HAPA
Zimbabwe will collapse within six months, possibly leading to a state of emergency, says a leaked briefing report for aid workers in the country. Rampant inflation will mean shops and services can no longer function and people would resort to barter, it said.
"The memorandum is talking about a situation where there is no functioning government or a total breakdown," an unnamed aid worker told the UK Times.
Zimbabwe's inflation is already 3,714% - the highest rate in the world.
Business quotes were now valid for just one day or even one hour, said the report written by consultants and sent to workers at the United Nations and other aid agencies. Several organisations contacted by the BBC News website denied commissioning the report. Some firms were already partly paying their workers in food, rather than money, it said.
Shops were doubling their prices twice a month, so they could purchase replacement goods. If this continues, "doubling the current inflation for each of the seven remaining months of 2007 gives 512,000% thus the economic collapse is expected before the end of 2007," said the report, according to the AP news agency.
The security forces who have remained loyal to President Robert Mugabe were also feeling the effects. The report said an ordinary police officer earned less than aid workers paid their domestic staff.
It said power and water suppliers were already near collapse. Electricity was last month rationed to just four hours a day to save power for farmers.
Just one adult in five is believed to have a regular job. Some 4m Zimbabweans - a third of the population - will need food aid this year, according to the UN World Food Programme.
Mr Mugabe denies responsibility for Zimbabwe's economic problems, blaming a western plot to bring down his government because of his policy of seizing white-owned land.
Zimbabwe crisis talks adjourned
Talks in South Africa between the Zimbabwean government and the opposition have been adjourned. It is the first time a government team has had direct talks with Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) officials. There is no word on whether the talks - facilitated by President Thabo Mbeki of South Africa - are making progress. Negotiators will return to South Africa on Friday for another round of talks lasting about four days, according to an MDC spokesman. He said the plan was for this pattern of meetings to be repeated during the coming weeks.
President Mbeki is expected to issue a progress report by the end of this month. Mr Mbeki was asked by fellow southern African leaders to mediate in an effort to resolve Zimbabwe's political and economic crisis. The MDC spokesman said both sides were still "trying to break the ice", and there was understandable caution.
MDC leader Morgan Tsvangirai said that next year's polls were the focus of the talks. "We are bit anxious [about] what needs to be done to create the conditions for free and fair elections," Mr Tsvangirai told AP news agency whilst on a tour of Europe. "We may actually be running out [of time] for it."
Repression
There are reports that political repression in Zimbabwe is on the rise.
Amnesty International says the security forces are increasing their attacks on human rights groups and student opposition leaders inside Zimbabwe.
On Monday, it was reported that the bodies of two opposition activists had been found, after being abducted earlier this month. Student leaders have also been rounded up and beaten. Amnesty International says that in this climate there is little hope that the polls will be free and fair. President Robert Mugabe, 83, has already made it clear that he wants to stand for re-election.
MDC demands include:
International control of the elections
The millions of Zimbabweans abroad be allowed to vote
No voters' roll - anyone with an identity card to vote.
The economy is in meltdown, with the world highest inflation rate - 3,700% - and just one adult in five in work. Last week, a report said the economy would collapse within six months.
Published: 2007/06/20 16:27:16 GMT
ZIMBABWE CRISIS
Inflation: 3,714%
Unemployment: 80%
4m need food aid
Life expectancy: 37 (men), 34 (women)
Soma hapaUS says Zimbabwe change is afoot
Zimbabwe's hyperinflation will force President Robert Mugabe from power, the US ambassador to the country has said. Speaking to a UK newspaper, Christopher Dell predicted that inflation will leap to 1.5m% by the end of the year. He said political discontent at Mr Mugabe's "disastrous economic policies" meant Zimbabwe was "committing regime change upon itself". Zimbabwe has 80% unemployment and independent economists say inflation is running at 11,000% per year.
On Thursday, the value of the Zimbabwean dollar plummeted with black market exchange rates reaching 300,000 Zimbabwean dollars to one US dollar. The official rate is 15,000 to one.
'Lost faith'
"I believe inflation will hit 1.5m% by the end of 2007, if not before," Mr Dell told the Guardian newspaper, adding that he believed this was a "modest forecast". He said prices were going up twice a day and people were turning to bartering rather than using rapidly devaluing cash. "It destabilises everything. People have completely lost faith in the currency and that means they have completely lost faith in the government that issues it."
Mr Mugabe, 83, has already made it clear that he wants to stand for re-election but Mr Dell said he thought change would come sooner. "Things have reached a critical point. I believe the excitement will come in a matter of months, if not weeks. The Mugabe government is reaching end game, it is running out of options." On Thursday, opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai made similar predictions of an impending end to Mr Mugabe's rule.
"He's got an economy that's down on its knees, he knows he cannot sustain it," Mr Tsvangirai told the Associated Press. "He knows he has an army that is jittery. He knows all his popular pillars of support are up against him."
By Nelson Banya Fri Jun 22, 8:46 AM ET
HARARE (Reuters) - Zimbabwe's currency plunged to new depths on Friday as the U.S. ambassador to Harare predicted galloping inflation will force President Robert Mugabe from office before the end of the year.
The Zimbabwe dollar, which is pegged to the U.S dollar and was effectively devalued by the central bank to 15,000 to the greenback in April, was trading in the 170,000-200,000 range on the thriving black market on Friday. Just a week before, the black market exchange rate was about 95,000 to one U.S dollar, and 2,500 to one in January.
Once a regional bread basket, Zimbabwe has suffered chronic food shortages since 2001 and is gripped by an economic crisis critics blame on Mugabe's controversial policies such as the seizure of white-owned farms to resettle landless blacks.
In an interview with the British Guardian newspaper, U.S. Ambassador Christopher Dell said Mugabe's government was effectively "committing regime change on itself."
"I believe inflation will hit 1.5 million percent by the end of 2007, if not before," he said. "I know that sounds stratospheric but, looking at the way things are going, I believe it is a modest forecast."
Economic analysts said the latest plunge of the Zimbabwe dollar was largely due to public fears that inflation would only get worse coupled with speculation that the Central Bank itself was now purchasing foreign currency on the black market to finance agriculture and other projects, although this could not be independently confirmed.
Mugabe -- Zimbabwe's sole rule since independence in 1980 -- has accused the southern African country's opposition and Western countries of plotting to unseat him and has been accused by critics of a draconian crackdown on political opponents.
On Friday, Zimbabwe's High Court ruled that hearings in the case of five men accused of plotting to topple Mugabe would be closed to the public and the media -- the latest sign of political tensions gripping the country.
CENTRAL BANK WARNING
The defiant leader, 83, has said he will stand for re-election after his current term ends next year and denies allegations that his government has committed human rights abuses.
The fall of the currency prompted central bank head Gideon Gono to warn that authorities could soon crack down on illegal foreign currency trading.
"It has become inevitable to fully crack the whip on those institutions and individuals who are willfully breaking the banking, anti-money laundering and exchange control laws," Gono said in comments carried by the official Herald newspaper.
Prices of fuel and basic consumer goods have risen sharply over the past two weeks, with the Consumer Council of Zimbabwe saying the cost of living for an average family of six has almost doubled in one month.
Official figures released by the Central Statistical Office show that prices doubled within one month in April, with the monthly inflation figure topping 100 percent. The state agency is yet to present May data, but analysts put the year-on-year figure above 4,500 percent and expect the trend to continue. Eight successive years of recession has left four out of five Zimbabweans without jobs and many struggle to feed their families, a situation analysts say could further stoke political tensions.
"People have completely lost faith in the currency and that means they have lost faith in the government that issues it," said Dell, who is close to the end of his posting to Zimbabwe.
"Things have reached a critical point. I believe the excitement will come in a matter of months, if not weeks. The Mugabe government is reaching end game, it is running out of options."
(Additional Reporting by Sophie Walker in London)
Zimbabwe's Dollar Plummets 67 Percent; Retailers Stop Trading
Bloomberg
June 22 (Bloomberg) -- Zimbabwe's dollar plummeted 67 percent on the black market this week, forcing some retailers and gasoline stations in the capital, Harare, to stop trading.
The currency, officially pegged at 250 against the U.S. dollar, sold for as much as 300,000 a dollar on the streets, where most Zimbabweans exchange their foreign currency, money traders said. It has depreciated from 100,000 earlier this week and from 3,000 to the dollar on Jan. 20.
``Inflation and the exchange rate are running away and out of control,'' John Robertson, an independent economist, said in an interview today from Harare. ``We're on a slippery slope that must be coming to an end now.''
Inflation in Zimbabwe, the world's fastest-shrinking economy, accelerated to 4,530 percent in May, according to NMBZ Holdings Ltd., a Zimbabwean bank. The nation's statistics agency hasn't released figures for May yet. The southern African nation is in its eighth successive year of recession after President Robert Mugabe began seizing white-owned commercial farms for redistribution to black subsistence farmers denied land during white rule. That slashed export earnings, sparking shortages of everything from motor fuel to the country's staple food, corn meal. Zimbabwe's central bank has printed money to pay debts, fueling inflation, and on April 26 devalued the nation's currency for exporters by 98 percent.
Shops Shut
Fuel retailers in Harare have started refusing to accept local currency because they are unable to keep pace with its depreciation. ``The black market rate has plummeted in the last 10 days,'' said Stephen Forsythe, who owns the Emerald Hill fuel outlet in Harare's northern suburbs. ``At this rate, I can only afford enough foreign currency to buy half as much fuel every three days. You can't run a business like that, so unless I charge in foreign currency, I have to stay closed.''
Retail stores in the capital also began closing their doors yesterday. ``There are thousands of items on our shelves and the law says they all have to display a price,'' Josiah Membgwe, a manager at the Helensvale Supermarket in Harare, said in an interview. ``We spent the whole afternoon and most of the night re-pricing everything. If this carries on we'll spend
more time pricing goods than we do selling them.''
Political Impasse
The ruling Zimbabwe African National Union-Patriotic Front and the main-opposition Movement for Democratic Change held talks in Pretoria earlier this month aimed at ending a political impasse in the southern African nation. The talks made progress toward writing a new constitution, an opposition demand ahead of elections next year, an official close to Mugabe said yesterday.
Zimbabwe's government is to blame for the collapse in the currency, Robertson said. ``Fiscal indiscipline and the uncontrolled printing of money are part of an accumulation of issues, but government doesn't have an answer any longer,'' he said. ``The problems are now bigger than the government.''
To contact the reporter on this story via the Johannesburg
bureau on pmrichardson@bloomberg.net
Last Updated: June 22, 2007 10:17 EDT
Waiting for the hard rain of culpability
Business Day
22 June 2007
Sarah Hudleston
At the same time as pressure was put on the university's senate, South African publisher Jacana Books took the brave step of publishing for international distribution a report originally published 10 years ago by the Catholic Commission for Justice and Peace in Zimbabwe and the Legal Resources Foundation. The original title was Breaking the Silence: A Report on the Disturbances in Matabeleland and the Midlands, and it is now republished as Gukurahundi.
This is the name given to the 1980s slaughter of mainly Ndebele at the hands of Zimbabwe's Korean-trained Fifth Brigade, said to have been a pet project of Mugabe's. According to the report, a conservative estimate of 20000 people were killed.
Elinor Sisulu, known for her work with the Zimbabwe Crisis Coalition, writes in the introduction to the report that Gukurahundi, a Shona word meaning "the first rain that washes away the chaff of the last harvest before the spring rains", once had pleasant connotations. She says the more recent campaign, Operation Murambatsvina, in which the Mugabe government deployed police and army units to destroy the homes and businesses of people around the country, has echoes of Gukurahundi. "Once again the imagery of cleansing is used. Murambatsvina literally means to remove filth. The poverty-stricken urban masses are described by the police chief, Augustine Chihuri, as a 'crawling mass of maggots bent on destroying the economy'."
Sources close to Mugabe say that, above all, he fears being sent to The Hague to face up to the litany of human rights abuses committed under his rule since 1980. But this is unlikely to happen.
Despite recent claims by the Catholic Bishop of Bulawayo, Pius Ncube, that more people die in Zimbabwe each year than died during the entire 20-year-long bush war, the end to Mugabe's rule will most probably be contingent on an attractive exit package, in terms of which he will go into exile and receive an amnesty that will rule out any criminal prosecution.
According to the charge sheet against Taylor, he is allegedly responsible for the deaths of 50000 people. Many would argue that Mugabe is responsible for the deaths of three times that number and should be tried for crimes against humanity.
Questions also arise about how to deal with Mugabe's cohorts, some of whom were actively involved in human rights abuses. Air force commander Perence Shiri was once known, during his tenure as commander of the Fifth Brigade, as the "Butcher of Bhalagwe Camp"- a reference to the brigade's Matabeleland headquarters. Shiri reported only to Mugabe and took orders from only him. What would the International Criminal Court make of Shiri and others? Would he and Mugabe ever get a fair trial?
The meticulously compiled evidence in the republished report is compelling. In Lupane in March 1983, 62 young men and women were killed in a mass shooting on the banks of the Cewale River. As Sisulu points out, unlike the massacre at Sharpeville, when shock waves of condemnation reverberated around the world, the silence that surrounded the Lupane and other killings was deafening. Just two of many eyewitness accounts are detailed in the
report and they should, by rights, present a strong case for justice.
It is debatable whether it is in Zimbabwe's interests to let Mugabe get off scot-free in the event of a negotiated settlement that would lead to free and fair elections in Zimbabwe. Talks kicked off this week in Pretoria between the ruling Zanu (PF) and both factions of its main opposition party, the Movement for Democratic Change. It will take time for the fruits of
these first and faltering negotiations to become known.
Sources say that an amnesty from prosecution for Mugabe may be offered, although he will never be free from the threat of prosecution in individual civil cases. The evidence is stacked against him.
But there has to be some sort of accountability, and there can be no forgiveness for past atrocities without contrition. And judging by his attitude since the Gukurahundi, Mugabe will never be contrite.
Hudleston writes for Business Day's sister newspaper, The Weekender.
'Sources close to him say that, above all, he fears being sent to The Hague'm
Teachers sell sex to buy food as Mugabe cronies get richer
While the government prospers, most of the Zimbabwe survives on less than £1 per week and will do anything to survive
Christina Lamb, Harare
STELLA SITHOLE is a high school teacher with neatly braided hair and a husband who works in a bank, yet in the twisted world of President Robert Mugabe's Zimbabwe she has to turn tricks to feed her children.
Battling to survive the world's highest inflation, estimated by local bankers to have reached 15,000%, the salary of Z$2.1m she has just received is six times what she got last month. But it is not even enough to cover her bus fares to school and back. In fact, it is equivalent to less than £3.50 a month.
So for several days of the week, instead of standing in front of her class in Kwekwe teaching history and geography, Sithole takes the bus 146 miles north to Harare. There, she sits at the bar in clubs such as Chez Ntemba, Chez Mambo and the Stars Studio at Rainbow Towers hotel, waiting for a proposition.
At 32, Sithole is pretty and refined, though there is a far-away sadness in her eyes and clients complain that there is not enough of her bottom ("What do you expect on one meal a day?" she asks).
On a pulsating Friday night at the Stars Studio, there is no shortage of takers. "Ministers," she whispers, "or Zanu big men."
While the vast majority of Zimbabweans are struggling, like Sithole, to survive on less than £1 a week - "We're not even have-nots," she says, "we're have-nothings" - these paunchy men in striped suits knocking back shots of malt whisky are finding that things have never been so good.
Not only government ministers and officials from the ruling Zanu-PF party, but also top police and army officers and High Court judges have been cleverly woven into Mugabe's patronage system, benefiting hugely from his despotic rule.
Many have been allotted property that was violently seized from white farmers. But their real wealth comes from access to foreign exchange at less than 1,000th of the rate on the streets.
This enables them to buy expensive vehicles such as the Hummers, S-class Mercedes and Toyota Prados that fill the hotel car park – one of which will whisk Sithole to a lodge on the edge of town.
When I first meet her through a friend, the primly dressed mother of two is ashamed to tell me what she does, referring instead to "colleagues that have become sex workers". But it is clear she knows too much and in the end she admits her tawdry double life.
"I studied three years at college to become a teacher and was so proud when I graduated," she says, sadly. "Now look at me. I'm very ashamed and always regret afterwards but otherwise we would starve."
Her clients pay in "cash and kind". Pointing at the long black leather boots she is wearing, she explains: "The most I got was Z$600,000 and this pair of boots as well as a mobile phone my husband sold."
She can earn more depending on what she refers to as "the what". This means whether she is prepared to have sex with no condom - an enormous risk in a country where at least one in five adults is HIV-positive.
"These dirty things make me scared because most of these guys are infected but I'm desperate," she shrugs.
To show the impossibility of surviving on a teacher's wage, we take her entire Z$2.1m salary to a local supermarket. All she manages to buy with the two large bricks of notes is one bottle of cooking oil, one packet of salt, one laundry soap, one pack of powdered soup, some milk powder and a pack of sugar.
In fact, just her bus fares to travel the 15 miles to school are Z$60,000 each way, totalling Z$2.4m a month if she goes every day. "So I'm already on minus," she says. "I'm actually having to borrow money to go to work."
On top of that, her bills last month were Z$315,000 for electricity, Z$130,000 for water and Z$800,000 for rent, not to mention food and bus fares for her 11-year-old daughter and nursery fees for her five-year-old son. Her husband earns just Z$1.4m. "We're the poorest millionaires on earth," she laughs.
For two years she supplemented her salary by working in a field or cleaning after school. She would use the money to go into Harare and buy cheap clothing. She would exchange this in rural areas for ground nuts and peanuts that she could then sell in town.
Colleagues cross the border to Botswana or South Africa, where they can buy goods for a quarter of the price, and come back and sell them. But Sithole has never amassed enough money to buy the foreign exchange she would need to do this.
This year, as inflation spiralled, she has found herself borrowing more than her salary each month. "I don't have any family abroad to send me money and we weren't even having one meal a day," she says.
One of her colleagues suggested accompanying her to Harare for the night. She earned more in a few hours than for a month's teaching. When I ask if many of the other teachers at her school are doing the same, she laughs. "Three-quarters," she replies.
Others have simply left the country, part of a massive exodus of 4m people. At the start of term in May more than 5,000 teachers in Zimbabwe did not return to their posts, among them Sithole's headmaster.
The children they have left behind are just told to sit and read. "Zimbabweans sacrifice bread for books to get their children to school, then there's no teaching," said James Elder of the United Nations Children's Fund (Unicef) in Harare.
He pointed out that the pass rate had dropped sharply - just 37% passed grade 7, which means almost two-thirds are failing.
"It hurts me that we teachers are abandoning the children to service these beasts with their fine cars," says Sithole. "But we don't have an option."
Her clients' children attend private schools or study in the UK, America or Australia. They can easily afford this because of the beneficial exchange rate available to those close to power.
Although the Reserve Bank knocked three zeroes off the currency last November, the Zimbabwe dollar has continued to lose value at an astonishing rate. At the start of the year it was 3,000 to the US dollar. Last month it fell from 100,000 to 300,000 in a week on the streets where most people exchange. Yet the official rate is 250.
"Imagine the money you can make," a merchant bank director explained. "Say you buy US$100 at the official rate – that costs you Z$25,000. Then you sell that US$100 on the streets and get Z$30m. With that Z$30m, at the official rate you can buy more than US$100,000 – all for your initial outlay of about eight cents.
"And that's not to mention fuel vouchers," he added. A litre of fuel for the privileged costs just Z$400 while everyone else must pay Z$185,000. "If you're one of Mugabe's cronies, you can live in fantastic wealth."
That wealth is visible not only from the number of new luxury cars on the streets of the capital but from a spin round Borrowdale Brooke, a private housing estate with its own golf course in northern Harare.
Many government ministers have elaborate mansions. On the hill is a three-storey glass monstrosity with its own lift, owned by the army chief, and beyond a heavily guarded entrance is the shining blue pagoda-style roof of Mugabe's multi-million-pound new home.
The local Spar sells Mozambican prawns, lobster and Laphroaig malt whisky at Z$9m a bottle but if residents prefer to eat out, they can head down the road to Amanzi, where dinner for five costs more than Z$26m.
"At the same time most people are barely surviving, those with access to power are literally bleeding the country and becoming richer daily," said Roy Ben-nett, a leading member of the opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) who had to flee to South Africa after 10 months in jail.
"It's not just Mugabe. There's an elite of around 5,000 scoring from the situation and there are enough of them in high places to maintain the status quo.
"They realise their only way to survive is to keep Mugabe there, because once he goes it's a bun-fight between them."
It is not only those holding the reins of power who are benefiting. Zimbabwe's stock market is booming. At a cafe in Harare I met Robert, a flashily dressed 26-year-old who was showing off a Ford Triton for which he had just paid Z$14 billion. He and his friend had five mobile phones on the table that kept ringing.
"More deals to make," he explained, describing himself as a commodity broker, which in today's Zimbabwe seems to mean black market profiteer. "It's chaos but we've never had it so good," he said as he drove off in his new car.
"We have this ridiculous dichotomy where this is the cheapest country in the world if you're earning US dollars and the most expensive in the world if you're earning Zim dollars," said an importer of luxury perfumes and cosmetics. "You can pretty much afford anything you want if you have access to foreign exchange."
But he added that after a couple of boom years, his sales were now falling. "The numbers are becoming less and less and noticeably so," he said.
With inflation so high that the Reserve Bank needs to double the amount of money in circulation every month, it is struggling to print enough of the country's Monopoly-style notes and recently had to bribe printers to work overtime with a Z$5m bonus.
It was the Reserve Bank that pushed up the exchange rate so precipitously last month, buying up foreign exchange on the black market to pay Eskom in South Africa for electricity and to repay money owed by Air Zimbabwe so it could keep flying. It also paid for US$2m worth of surveillance equipment, following the introduction of a law that permits the monitoring of phone calls and e-mails.
The biggest payment, however, was US$39m owed to the US Export-Import Bank to avoid legal action from the US Treasury. Gideon Gono, the governor of the Reserve Bank, wrote a furious letter to the US attorney-general, complaining that the repayment had forced the government to "divert funds which were meant for importation of . . . medical drugs for our hospitals, antidrought food imports, fuel, electricity, seeds as well as agricultural equipment".
He added: "The people of Zimbabwe have paid an invaluable sacrificial welfare price to meet your abrupt harsh turn of spirit."
Short of foreign exchange and having run out of farms to hand out to supporters - all but 200 of the 4,500 white farms have been confiscated - the government last week announced legislation to seize 51% of foreign companies.
Although the government has stopped issuing inflation figures since it hit 3,700% in March, prices are doubling weekly. A loaf of bread that cost Z$8,000 in May is now Z$50,000.
In supermarkets such as the Bellevue Spar in Bulawayo, staff struggle to keep up with the increases. Every aisle has someone busy with a pricing gun and some items have six or seven price labels, one on top of another. The baked beans on sale for Z$66,000 five days ago have just been repriced at Z$125,000. Hardly anyone in the shop seems to be buying anything. People stare at prices and window shop as if they were ata luxury department store.
"We're going round from place to place to see if any shop has items it hasn't yet marked up," says Charles, a young man with dreadlocks who is foreman of a local factory.
He has just discovered hair gel for Z$30,000 that is going for Z$130,000 elsewhere, so he buys up six to sell on the street.
Others, such as a white-haired pensioner, walk out with nothing. His monthly pension is not even enough to buy a toilet roll, he tells me.
The desperate situation has led to some appalling acts. In the state-owned Herald newspaper last week was the story of a Rushinga man who murdered his 10-year-old son with an axe for eating four mice that were meant for the family dinner.
Power cuts are so common that at night the centre of Harare is as dark as remote countryside. The government recently announced 20-hour power cuts, but some areas of the capital often go without for three days at a time. People sell bundles of firewood in the city centre. Many areas of Bulawayo and some parts of Harare have no water.
The state-owned media blame it all on a plot by British and American governments. Last week the Chronicle wrote: "We can reveal that British and US governments, after failing to incite a public revolt against the government of Zimbabwe, are now working overtime to destroy the economy, mutilate the Zimbabwe dollar, foment civil unrest . . ."
Few are taken in. For the first time in years of going to Zimbabwe, I found people speaking out openly, suggesting that anger is overtaking fear in a police state where one person in three is now thought to be an informer.
"The rule of economics is the one law Mugabe cannot break," said Christopher Dell, the US ambassador, who predicts that inflation will reach 1.5m% by the end of the year. "Historically, no regime has ever survived six or seven-digit inflation."
Dell's criticism of the regime has outraged Mugabe and in his office is a framed front page of the Herald with the headline, "Dell can go to hell".
"They're printing money at madcap rates to pay for fuel, maize and electricity imports," he said. "It's all self-inflicted.
"It's like when you pull out the plug on a bathtub. First the water goes slowly but then as it gets near the plughole, it starts swirling faster and faster. I think we're in the final swirl."
Dell admits it could get even worse after Mugabe. "I think we could see a period of instability with maybe three or four presidents in a row," he said. "The most dangerous thing will be if the military gets involved." At the moment the least threat to Mugabe seems to come from the opposition. The MDC has been crippled, first by internal splits, then by the regime's silent campaign of torture and intimidation.
"Of course we've gone quiet - we've been battling to stay alive," said Bennett in exile in South Africa.
"In the last month I've had an influx of more than 30 members of the senior leadership running away from the police and seeking asylum."
Following the beatings of the party's president, Morgan Tsvangirai, and other senior members, which drew international condemnation in March, Mugabe's thugs set about destroying the MDC's entire network.
"They raided our headquarters and seized all our computers and accessed documents so they could see who's who in all our structures," Bennett said. "Then they systematically went about arresting all our members so it's impossible for us to organise."
Although many have criticised Tsvangirai's lack of leadership, the opposition is not helped by the make-do culture of most Zimbabweans. "No one is ever going to rise up," said a restaurant owner in Harare. "If there's no power, we light a candle. If there are no candles, we light a fire."
Mugabe's exhausted population has no time or energy for protests. Every morning a flood of people can be seen walking into Harare and Bulawayo - the so-called "human train" of people walking for up to four hours to get to work because they cannot afford the fare.
Many are surviving on remittances sent from the estimated 4m Zimbabweans who have left the country - almost a third of the population. Just £10 a month sent back would triple the salary of a teacher such as Sithole.
Shops and factories across the country have been closing, unable to afford imported raw materials. Bakeries in the southern town of Masvingo on Friday suspended the production of bread following a government order to reduce prices by 50%.
"We no longer have an industry to talk about," said Callisto Jokonya, the head of the Confederation of Zimbabwe Industries. "We have deindustrialised ourselves."
At one clothing factory in Harare, the owner said he had lost 10% of his workforce in the past two weeks. "Frankly I don't know why workers still come," he shrugged. "It can only be hope."
Hope is all they have in many rural areas such as Matabeleland in the south of the country. A severe drought has resulted in a 95% crop failure in the south and in villages around Plumtree, one family after another showed their recent maize harvest was enough for only two or three weeks. Nationwide, the country's harvest of maize, its staple crop, is thought to have been between 500,000-800,000 tons, compared to annual needs of 1.4m tons.
Yet this works in Mugabe's favour because he will again be able to use food as a political tool in the run-up to elections next March.
If the situation seems grave in rural areas, things are even worse in parts of Bulawayo.
A whole community of people whose homes were demolished by the government two years ago now live on the Richmond rubbish dump, surviving by foraging for glass bottles and plastic.
Remedio Moyo, 26, shows the black plastic shelter he lives under with his wife and children aged three and five. Small black flies cover everything.
"This is not a proper life," he said. "I went to school and all I wanted from life was a job anda small house, not to be a big man. There is only one person to blame for this situation and I would like that man to die any minute."
Pius Ncube, the outspoken Catholic Archbishop of Bulawayo, said things were now so desperate that he was calling on the West to invade and oust Mugabe's regime.
"Anyone who is ready to starve his people to death for the sake of power is a murderer," Ncube said. "What more does he have to do?"
Names have been changed to protect identities.
Basildon Peta
July 01 2007 at 12:19PM
Alfred Moyo holds his breath each time he queues to pay for his bread and milk. By the time he reaches the till, the prices of the commodities might have increased.
"This is no ordinary joke," he says. "It is the reality of the rot that has set in here."
With hyperinflation calculated by private economists to have surpassed 12 000 percent in May - against the government's official calculation of half that figure - the Zimbabwean currency has become so worthless that nobody wants it.
Norah Mutasah, like many other landlords, now asks her tenants to pay rentals in kind.
"Instead of giving me cash, which loses value while I hold it, I have asked them [tenants] to give me sugar, cooking oil, flour and salt every month," she says.
Ralph Mukonoweshuro, a heavy-vehicle tyre trader, says his quotations for tyres are now valid for only 30 minutes. "We used to issue quotes valid for seven days but reduced that to a day. Now you have to make a decision on whether you want to buy or not as soon as we quote or you will get a new price if you confirm your order 30 minutes or at most one hour later," he says.
Many companies that used to pay wages monthly have now resorted to paying them weekly. Instead of awarding annual salary increases, most now award monthly increases.
Even weekly wage payments are no longer adequate for most workers. They now want to be paid daily. Most others want to be paid in kind with just a little cash for bus fare.
"If it were not for the tragic suffering of more than 12 million people here, we would say this country is a good circus for anyone wanting to visit a place of humour," says Mukonoweshuro.
He no longer banks his money on a Friday because by the time businesses reopen on Monday, the cash has lost half its value. Tonnie Zimondi, a fuel trader, says he no longer accepts payments in Zimbabwe dollars but only in foreign currency. If he accepts Zimbabwe dollars, he will not be able to buy enough foreign currency on the black
market to order more fuel.
It is because of this sad context that a grouping of aid agencies in Zimbabwe, called the Heads of Agencies Contact Group, which represents more than 30 aid groups, is now predicting a complete meltdown of the Zimbabwean economy by December.
A report compiled for the contact group by a hired team of consultants to prepare them for the future warns that Zimbabwe's economy is on the verge of ceasing to exist.
The report warns the aid agencies to prepare for possible social unrest as more businesses shut down. It also predicts the imposition of a state of emergency.
Economist John Robertson said that it is difficult to determine when a country's economy has totally collapsed. But a recipe for economic meltdown includes: when the system of governance breaks down completely, when people shun their own currency and when workers and shops demand payment in foreign currency for services and goods respectively.
These ingredients are well advanced in Zimbabwe.
The unprecedented price increases of the past three weeks seem to have been driven by a sharp depreciation of the Zimbabwean dollar. This has come as the result of the Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe's decision to continue rolling its presses to print new money to buy foreign currency on the black market.
President Robert Mugabe has threatened to nationalise all companies because of their price increases. He ordered companies to slash their prices on all commodities by half and roll them back to those charged as of June 18. The army and police were enlisted to enforce compliance.
The result has been a disappearance of most goods from supermarket shelves and even more serious shortages. "Manufacturers will simply shut down rather than be forced to operate at a loss," Robertson said.
He added that this means parallel market inflation will worsen even further as any available goods will be in even greater demand on the black market.
The economy is doomed unless Mugabe's government recovers its senses and changes its economic policies, he says.
"If it was possible to relocate all our people, Zimbabwe should best be shut down completely and only reopened when we have new [and] sensible rulers," Moyo said. - Foreign Service
This article was originally published on page 5 of Sunday Independent on July 01, 2007
Zim Online
Monday 02 July 2007
By Tanonoka Joseph Whande
GABORONE - There are talks again. Maybe these are the talks. But talks about what?
I have an acutely vested interest in the talks between President Robert Mugabe's representatives and the main opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) factions that are currently underway in South Africa.
I want the talks to succeed because my life literally depends on them. South African President Thabo Mbeki, on the other hand, is just looking for an undeserved addition to that part of his dull CV that refers to mediation.
Almost a decade ago, Mbeki went live before an international television audience and offered the world the African Renaissance, which still remains in the incubator.
Maybe he's afraid the Renaissance might not survive the harsh African climate. However, my optimism over the talks is doused by several scenarios which make me conclude this is just another charade to protect Mugabe while giving Mbeki a small opening to escape.
Who are the principals in these talks? What and how much can they offer or concede? And what do they mean to us Zimbabweans?
First, there is Mbeki, a lacklustre moderator prone to taking sides when mediating. Mbeki's mediating skills were badly exposed and tarnished when the Ivorians fired him from their mediation talks for bias. I cheer when I look at what happened in the Ivory Coast after they fired Mbeki.
Is the sight in the Ivory Coast not one to behold when we have a president whose former adversary (in violent manner) is now his prime minister in peace?
Also remember, please, that the bogeyman himself, Mugabe, riding on the back of his highly efficient army, put Mozambique's Alphonso Dhlakama, of the Mozambican Resistance Army (RENAMO), on the defensive and brought him to the negotiating table, culminating in that historic peace accord between the Mozambican government and RENAMO in Rome.
Zimbabwe had to act; it was suffering badly because of the political instability in Mozambique, much as South Africa is going through because of Zimbabwe.
One of my most cherished moments was seeing Mugabe on the podium, with a genuine smile on his face, hugging a beaming Alphonso Dhlakama in front of a jubilant Joachim Chissano during Mozambique's 10th Anniversary of Peace Celebrations in Maputo. That was in 2002.
Regrettably, that has meant nothing to both Mbeki and Mugabe. Since becoming president, Mbeki has had ample opportunity to arrest the deplorable situation in Zimbabwe.
The last time he invited and held mediation talks between Mugabe and the opposition, Mbeki succeeded only in splitting the opposition.
Mbeki has failed to control the situation and, three weeks ago, went to the extent of telling his nation through a speech in parliament that "South Africa just has to live with the influx of (Zimbabwean) refugees."
He protects Mugabe at the expense of South Africans. So we have Mbeki, an ardent Mugabe ally, now tasked with the job again. The folly of diplomacy!
So, hands up those who think Mbeki is the right mediator. I see only one hand. Okay, Mr Mugabe, you can put your hand down now. Your vote does not count.
(Does that sound familiar to you, Sir?)
Then there is the man himself, Robert Mugabe. He sent a team of lightweights, Patrick Chinamasa and Nicholas Goche, to the negotiating table. And this gauges the 'unseriousness' of the matter.
I made the same point (The UK Guardian, Aug 20, 2003) when similar talks were ongoing and with these two Mugabe representatives as the principal negotiators. Of the two, Goche surprises me the most.
I first met Goche when I was a student in the US and he was at our embassy in Washington just after independence. Goche was straightforward and espoused democracy through all his pores.
He never struck me as one who would end up like this. But, I guess power, money and politics are like fungi; they never stop growing. So here we are with Chinamasa and Goche once again in the forefront to bring better fortunes to Zimbabwe. They tried it before and failed.
Obasanjo and Mbeki tried it with them before and failed. This time, however, Mbeki is reported to have requested Chinamasa to give him "more evidence that they were serious about the talks."
And does anyone of us believe that Mugabe is in these talks to negotiate himself out of power? And if he is not, what are these talks about since that is the only thing that matters. Hands up those who think Mugabe is serious about these talks. I see only one hand. Okay, Mr Mugabe, you can put your hand down now. Your vote does not count. (Surely, that must sound familiar to you, Sir?)
The talks cannot be about power sharing for that would be political suicide for the MDC. Unity then? It cannot be. The chasm is too deep and there is no common ground.
Besides, no matter how much we love and revere the late Vice-President Joshua Nkomo, his capitulation into disbanding PF-ZAPU and being swallowed by ZANU-PF shall always remain as the day when Zimbabweans were robbed of choice.
Unity does not mean giving up one's dreams and hopes for his country and adopting the other person's. Unity means that if our people prefer a certain path, whether it is championed by the ruling party or the opposition, then we all embrace it and work towards its fulfilment together.
Unity does not mean abandoning one's agenda for the nation. It does not mean being swallowed by another party whose ideology is totally different from yours. So what are these talks about?
Are they, then, about Mugabe's retirement and immunity from prosecution? I will not laugh while in the execution room but I want to know who can forgive a murderer other than the murdered?
And this brings us to the MDC. Now, what is the MDC negotiating for? Are they negotiating a merger at party level? Are they demanding, as the late Ndabaningi Sithole and the late Joshua Nkomo did, that the 'playing field be levelled'?
Are they willing to tackle and tell us, now, what will happen to our head of state, should Mugabe lose the elections? Are they only demanding 'a new constitution before the next elections'?
Since when have African dictators respected their own constitutions? I call the MDC, particularly Morgan Tsvangirai, as my first witness for the prosecution. Hopefully, Mr Tsvangirai's wounds inflicted on him for attending a prayer meeting for Zimbabwe have now healed enough for him to appear.
If Mugabe is demanding immunity from prosecution in exchange for stepping down then tough luck because no one has the authority to pardon Mugabe except those he committed crimes against. I said as much to former British Prime Minister Tony Blair (Daily News, March 4, 2003) who was actively pursuing and promising Mugabe immunity in exchange of exile in the UK.
No one, not even the MDC, has the authority to pardon Mugabe except the Zimbabwean people. And that is a tall order, indeed!
The MDC should be warned that the sacrifices and concessions they make do not amount to a betrayal of the people. The concessions they make must not disappoint and they should be alert to Mugabe's trickery which is a matter of public record.
No one can rule Zimbabwe with Mugabe free on a pig farm somewhere or alive in exile somewhere in Saudi Arabia. Too many people were murdered in his name. This is one man who will never live in peace should he make the mistake to leave the presidency.
So, hands up everyone who believes Mugabe is trying to negotiate himself out of power. No paws up, just like I thought!
*Tanonoka Joseph Whande is a Zimbabwean writer based in Gaborone, Botswana
* ZimOnline encourages readers to send articles for publication in the interest of promoting healthy debate on the crisis in Zimbabwe.
Zim Standard
By Kholwani Nyathi
BULAWAYO - Zanu PF founding member, Enos Nkala, has joined the newly formed Patriotic Union of Matabeleland (PUMA), which is seeking greater autonomy for the region.
The disclosure followed a meeting of "senior citizens" organised by PUMA at the former minister's home last weekend where it was resolved that a strong delegation will soon be sent to Harare to seek audience with President Robert Mugabe.
The delegation is expected to present grievances that include concerns about the "marginalisation" of the region and the existence of a tribal document known as the 1979 Grand Plan which they say is linked to Zanu PF officials.
Zanu PF has disowned the document, which is also circulating on the internet. Zapu Federal Party leader, Paul Siwela, was in 2002 arrested for discussing the document, which advocates for the economic marginalisation of people of Ndebele origin, at a public meeting.
Nkala, a long-time Mugabe confidant, resigned from government after he was implicated in the Willowgate scandal in 1989. "I am a card-carrying PUMA member and at my age I cannot seek any leadership role," Nkala said. "I thought Mugabe could be helped and that is why I agreed to his meetings but he cannot be rehabilitated."
PUMA secretary general, Pinos Darlington Ncube, said Nkala was on the advisory board of the party. "Senior citizens from all parts of Matabeleland and Midlands were at Nkala's house on Sunday and we discussed a number of issues affecting the region," Ncube said. "We agreed that our problem lies in the system of governance and that there is a need for devolution of power to provinces.
"Of major concern was the 1979 Grand Plan tribal document, which we believe is the root cause of all the problems in the region because what it advocates for is happening on the ground." He said a copy of the document would be forwarded to Mugabe before the proposed meeting.
In a separate interview, Nkala said he was prepared to tackle Mugabe because he had since realised that "he is a treacherous man".
"I know Mugabe better than anyone, "Nkala said. "We were together in detention for 10 years as well as in the struggle and government and therefore he is not a stranger to me." "If he wants to do anything to me, I am ready for him." Zanu was formed at Nkala's house in Harare in August 1963.
Turning to the ongoing peace talks between Zanu PF and Movement for Democratic Change (MDC), Nkala said a settlement was unlikely because Mugabe was not prepared to relinquish power.
"I will be pleasantly surprised if (South African) President Thabo Mbeki pulls out any concession from that treacherous man," he said. Zanu PF and MDC delegations are engaged in peace talks in Pretoria, South Africa under Mbeki's supervision. Before the talks even started there were reports that Mugabe had set tough conditions for the opposition,
including demands that they must recognise his controversial reelection in 2002.
"He is a man who has committed too many crimes against his people and he knows what happened to Charles Taylor," Nkala said.
Nkala resigned from government and the Zanu PF politburo where he had been secretary for finance for 30 years.
Christina Lamb, Bulawayo
ZIMBABWE'S leading cleric has called on Britain to invade the country and topple President Robert Mugabe. Pius Ncube, the Archbishop of Bulawayo, warned that millions were facing death from famine, unable to survive amid inflation believed to have soared to 15,000%.
Mugabe, 83, had proved intransigent despite the "massive risk to life", said Ncube, the head of Zimbabwe's 1m Catholics. "I think it is justified for Britain to raid Zimbabwe and remove Mugabe," he said. "We should do it ourselves but there's too much fear. I'm ready to lead the people, guns blazing, but the people are not ready."
Some parts of Zimbabwe have seen 95% of crops fail, leaving families with only two or three weeks' food supply to last a year. Prices in the shops are more than doubling every week and Christopher Dell, the American ambassador, predicts that by the end of the year inflation could hit 1.5m%.
Ncube said that far from helping those struggling on less than £1 a week, Mugabe had just spent £1m on surveillance equipment to monitor phone calls and e-mails. "How can you expect people to rise up when even our church services are attended by state intelligence people?
"People in our mission hospitals are dying of malnutrition. We had the best education in Africa and now our schools are closing. Most people are earning less than their bus fares. There's no water or power. Is the world just going to let everything collapse in on us?"
The Zimbabwean
Zimbabwe has been plunged into chaos as a motley assortment of state agents - including armed police, Green Bombers, war vets and 'inspectors' - obey Mugabe's ludicrous order to enforce price reductions in an effort to stem the tide of inflation resulting from his government's printing of nobody knows how many billions of worthless bank notes and bearers' cheques.
How is it that Mugabe and his few remaining supporters are incapable of comprehending the most basic economic fundamentals? Terrorising the final link in the production chain, the retailer, into slashing the prices of goods to the general public in the hope of averting national economic collapse must surely be the actions of a madman.
The systematic destruction of the means of production by Zanu (PF) over the past two decades has brought the economy to where it is today. Without addressing these fundamentals, and of course the rampant corruption, cronyism and patronage on which the party survives, jumping in to thrash retailers into reducing prices is hardly a recipe for economic recovery.
Reports indicate that a few retailers did indeed give into the terror tactics - sparking a frenzy among shoppers as a few people got lucky, gobbling up the reduced-price goods as though there were no tomorrow. No doubt many thousands of green bombers, war vets and policemen went to bed that night on a full stomach for the first time in months, if not years. But now what? Now it is tomorrow! And as the photos in this issue
demonstrate so well - there is nothing left. Instead of alleviating the suffering of millions of Zimbabweans, Mugabe and his henchmen have - yet again - simply made it worse. Much worse.
Many businesses were brutally forced to empty their storerooms. Violence, assault, looting and arrests were reported country-wide. A large wholesaler lost about Z$500 million on orange juice alone after reducing the price. Another chain gave away all its bread rather than sell it at a loss. Many shops have closed and the owners are reported to be in hiding. Even the black market has dried up. And what of tomorrow?
Ripoti kutoka Afrika ya Kusini zinasema jumuiya ya maendeleo na uchumi ya kusini mwa Afrika SADC inaandaa njia kadhaa za kuinusuru Zimbabwe kiuchumi.
Gazeti moja la jumapili la Afrika Kusini limemnukuu Katibu Mkuu wa SADC, TOMAZ SALAMAO kuwa ameandaa muswada wa namna matumizi ya randi ambayo ni sarafu ya Afrika Kusini yanavyoweza kutumiwa kuiokoa nchi hiyo.
Fedha ya Afrika ya Kusini ni fedha halali kutumika katika nchi za Namibia, Lesotho na Swaziland. Inaarifiwa kuwa Rais wa Zimbabwe Robert Mugabe yupo tayari kukubali mabadiliko hayo ili kuondokana na matatizo ya kiuchumi.
By Basildon Peta
Cape Town
A DRAMATIC rescue plan for the Zimbabwe economy will use the rand to prop up that country's worthless currency. The Southern African Development Community (SADC) wants to extend the rand monetary area into Zimbabwe, according to sources.
SADC executive secretary Tomaz Salamao is drafting the plan, which would also involve the South African and Botswana reserve banks pumping millions into the Zimbabwe Reserve Bank.
The aim of these measures would be to stabilise the exchange rate of the Zimbabwe dollar and curb inflation so the country can buy foreign exchange and continue importing desperately needed goods.
But to get the rescue package, President Robert Mugabe would first have to agree to fundamental political reforms in talks with the opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) which are due to start near Pretoria tomorrow.
Salamao is believed to have briefed SADC leaders about his plan on the sidelines of last week's African Union summit in Accra, Ghana. He then visited Zimbabwe on Thursday to discuss it with the government. The rand monetary area includes Namibia, Lesotho and Swaziland, and their currencies are pegged to the rand.
Sources said the Salamao plan would not immediately peg the Zimbabwe dollar to the rand but would stabilise the exchange rate by bringing it under effective SA monetary control. But Zimbabwean economist John Robertson said "the effect would be to displace the Zimbabwe dollar with the rand so that the dollar would become history". He said he had long advocated that measure as the only realistic option for saving the Zimbabwean economy.
The SADC leaders mandated Salamao to draft an economic rescue package for Zimbabwe at a summit in Dar es Salaam in March. They also mandated President Thabo Mbeki to mediate negotiations between Mugabe's Zanu-PF and the MDC for a solution to the country's political crisis. Mbeki is understood to have briefed the SADC leaders about his progress.
Mbeki has arranged a series of preliminary negotiations between Zanu-PF and representatives of both MDC factions over the last few months where they agreed on a comprehensive agenda which includes the main demands of both sides. This will be on the agenda for the negotiations due to start tomorrow.
The Zanu-PF delegation is led by Justice Minister Patrick Chinamasa and the two MDC delegations by Tendai Biti and Welshman Ncube, the secretaries-general of the Morgan Tsvangirai and Arthur Mutumbara factions respectively.
The talks are so secret participants will not even be allowed to take switched-off cellphones into meetings.
Sources said the political and economic plans were closely intertwined as the SADC leaders believe the economic rescue package will be worthless without fundamental political reforms.
Their argument was dramatically underscored last week as Mugabe resorted to forceful political measures to try and control runaway inflation. He had earlier ordered companies to restore prices to their June 18 levels after a sudden surge of inflation trebled or quadrupled prices within a week. This created a serious shortage of goods on shelves and forced some businesses to close rather than continue operating at a loss.
But Mugabe then threatened to nationalise companies which defied his order to cut prices or decided to close down instead to avoid selling goods at a loss. Mugabe is believed to have ordered the army and the notorious Green Bomber youth militia to deploy to force businesses to obey his orders at gunpoint.
Several businessmen are reported to have fled the country ahead of this expected government assault. The state-owned Herald newspaper in Harare reported yesterday that 17 business executives had been arrested in the price-control crackdown.
Representatives of a top South African company listed on the Zimbabwe Stock Exchange - which cannot be identified - are believed to have had an emergency meeting with Mbeki to plead for his intervention.
The Democratic Alliance argued last week that because of the repercussions of Zimbabwe's collapse for South Africa and the threats to South African companies by Harare, some kind of official information from Mbeki on the status of the talks was now necessary.