'No, we can't ' - is that what our 'Modern' Economists are advising?

Acha longolongo....mnaweza kujenga mi sky scrapper au skyline kama ya New York?

Mnaweza kutengeneza mi Yachts? Mi cruise ships? Ipod? Bluray dvd?

Lol..thubutu.

Dar3.jpg
 
Yalaaaaa!!! Cheki alivyo mchafu. Hata usafi unamshinda iwe ubavu wa kutengeneza Ipod...unacheza wewe
Duh kweli wapangaji wetu katika uchumi, kuna watu ambao wanasema ukweli kidogo kama Dr-Semboja lakini kitu kimoja ni siasa
 
Here is one, whatever you have felt as far as poverty is concerned in a way has to do with him and his colleagues behind Vision 2025 & Mkukuta:

http://www.repoa.or.tz/documents_st...ngwe's presentation REPOA's 14th ARW 2009.pdf

I quite agree with you there,however apart from various analytical works and theorisations of the future there is no concrete attempts at realisation of what we are supposed to be by 2025.That is in the next 15 years, and that is not a long way off.
Whatever is prescribed is best shared by participants in lavishly funded workshops seminars and the likes.
Indeed economical planning is one thing and realisation is quite a different world.
The paper by Prof Wangwe will make a good reading which is to say the least, good for students to pass their exams.
 
Kuhusu WB na IMF, ninao upeo kiasi fulani. Si kweli kuwa matatizo yetu yalianza 1985.

Kwa wachambuzi ambao wamefanya kazi WB na IMF, matatizo yalianza zamani.

Baada ya vita vya pili vya dunia na mafanikio ya Marshall plan kwenye kusaidia uchumi wa nchi za Ulaya, nadharia mbalimbali za kusaidia nchi masikini zikaanza kujitokeza.

Moja ya nadhani hiyo ilisema kuwa iwapo nchi tajiri zitatoa asilimia ndogo ya mapato yake (let's say 1%) kusaidia nchi masikini, basi nchi masikini zinaweza kutumia pesa kama kichocheo cha maendeleo ya kiuchumi.

Nadharia nyingine ilisema kuwa kama vyombo vya kifedha duniani WB na IMF zikisaidia shughuli za jamii kama vile afya na elimu na maji katika nchi masikini, basi wataalamu na wenye afya wa nchi hizi wataweza kujenga nchi zao. Champion wa nadharia hii alikuwa Robert MacNamara.

Nadharia nyingine ilihusika na maendeleo ya viwanda. Katika nadharia hii ilionekana kuwa kutokana wimbi la umasikini wetu, industrialization ni lazima iongozwe na serikali. Hivyo hata nchi za kipebari na kidikteta kama Zaire zilianzisha viwanda vilivyomilikiwa na serikali.

Mwaka 1968, Robert MacNamara. alichaguliwa kuwa Rais wa WB. Na kuanzia hapo sera za WB zikabadilika na kuanza kuangalia zaidi shughuli za maendeleo ya jamii katika ulimwengu wa tatu.

Moja ya nchi aliyoitunuku ilikuwa Tanzania. Tanzania ilipokea misaada na mikopo mingi ambayo ilitumika katika expansion ya elimu, huduma za afya na maji. Mpaka sasa kuna watanzania wanakienzi kipindi cha 1968-1979 kuwa ni kipindi cha maendeleo makubwa. Lakini wengi wao wanashindwa kutambua kuwa resources zilikuwa sio zetu wenyewe.

Na katika kipindi hiki production ilikuwa inashuka kwa kasi sana. Hivyo production yetu haikuweza ku-sustain matumizi yetu.

Kufikia mwanzoni mwa 1980, misaada kwa huduma za jamii na serikali kumiliki viwanda vya umma vikaonekana kuwa sio PENACEA. Hivyo ikaonekana kuwa ni lazima sekta binafsi iingilie katika. Na vilevile misaada ya huduma za jamii ikaonekana inalemaza watu.

Hivyo kuanzia 1980 kuendelea mpaka 1990, new generation ya misaada na mikopo iliendana na serikali huska kukubali sekta binafsi. Mipango hii vilevile haikusadia sana.

Na kuanzia mid 1990, external investments, multiparty democray, na good governance zikawa zinatiliwa mkazo kama chachu za maendeleo.

Hivyo ninaelewa sera za WB na IMF na negative impacts zake. Lakini pamoja na hayo, mada nzima hapa inazungumzia Experts wetu. Unapofanya kazi WB na IMF sio lazima ufikirie kawa sera za taasisi hivyo zinavyotaka. To think outside the box, ndio key katika expertise yoyote hile.

Kubobea katika uchumi hakutaki juhudi katika implementation of policies. Kubobea katika uchumi ni manipulation of data. Policies mara nyingi zinakuwa evaluated after four years, however data are streaming in real time.

Kupinga kwamba Matatizo ya Tanzania and IFI yalianza post 1985 ni kubishana na facts. Kama unafahamu basi nenda katazame data zako kuhusu ukuaji wa madeni ulitokea muda gani? Na kisha soma paper ambazo zimechambua madhara ya ERP I II, au SAPs. Mwalim ameongea kwenye vyuo vikubwa kuhusu hili, and i will be more than happy kukupa hizo presentation. Kuanzia hapo debt ya developing countries likuwa linaongezeka kwa double digit, na hili limezuia sana most of the development plan. I dont wanna argue out the topic, lakini i will like to have this debate concern the IMF, WB and their effects.

Nadhani hapa mimi na wewe ndio tunapotofautiana. Wewe unaimani na WB and IMF. Kutokana na uchambuzi wako wa WB and IMF post 1968 ambapo ndipo kiini cha "Economic Development". Hili neno lilizaliwa kipindi hicho.

Kazi za mwanzo IMF and WB hazikuwa kusaidia nchi masikini, na nakubaliana na wewe McNamara alikuwa na lengo la kusaidi nchi hizi. Swali langu ni mmoja tuu kwake jee kwa nini Ronald Reagan hakumteuwa tena McNamara? Kuanzia 1980 IMF and WB zimekuwa institution zinazobased on ideology more than scientific facts. Na hapa ndipo ninapo sisitiza.

Tunaitaji wachumi wetu sababu wao wanaifahamu Tanzania zaidi, na wanafahamu kabisa kwamba majority ya idea za economics ambazo zipo kwenye vitabu zinabase on assumption and not reality.
 
Acha longolongo....mnaweza kujenga mi sky scrapper au skyline kama ya New York?

Mnaweza kutengeneza mi Yachts? Mi cruise ships? Ipod? Bluray dvd?

Lol..thubutu.

Hata kitasa cha mlango hatuwezi. Sisi sio watu wa kushauriwa. Ni watu wa kucharazwa viboko mpaka tuzinduke kutoka usingizini.
 
Kupinga kwamba Matatizo ya Tanzania and IFI yalianza post 1985 ni kubishana na facts. Kama unafahamu basi nenda katazame data zako kuhusu ukuaji wa madeni ulitokea muda gani? Na kisha soma paper ambazo zimechambua madhara ya ERP I II, au SAPs. Mwalim ameongea kwenye vyuo vikubwa kuhusu hili, and i will be more than happy kukupa hizo presentation. Kuanzia hapo debt ya developing countries likuwa linaongezeka kwa double digit, na hili limezuia sana most of the development plan. I dont wanna argue out the topic, lakini i will like to have this debate concern the IMF, WB and their effects.

Nadhani hapa mimi na wewe ndio tunapotofautiana. Wewe unaimani na WB and IMF. Kutokana na uchambuzi wako wa WB and IMF post 1968 ambapo ndipo kiini cha "Economic Development". Hili neno lilizaliwa kipindi hicho.

Kazi za mwanzo IMF and WB hazikuwa kusaidia nchi masikini, na nakubaliana na wewe McNamara alikuwa na lengo la kusaidi nchi hizi. Swali langu ni mmoja tuu kwake jee kwa nini Ronald Reagan hakumteuwa tena McNamara? Kuanzia 1980 IMF and WB zimekuwa institution zinazobased on ideology more than scientific facts. Na hapa ndipo ninapo sisitiza.

Tunaitaji wachumi wetu sababu wao wanaifahamu Tanzania zaidi, na wanafahamu kabisa kwamba majority ya idea za economics ambazo zipo kwenye vitabu zinabase on assumption and not reality.


Mtanganyika:

Naona wewe ndio unaopingana na facts. Kufikia 1985 Tanzania tayari ilikuwa bankrupt State.

Kufikia 1982 misaada kwa ya kigeni ilikuwa imefikia 600 Millioni dollars. Hiki kiwango kilikuwa tayari zaidi ya 50% ya bajeti ya Tanzania.

Kufikia 1979, mishahara ya watumishi katika sekta ya umma ilishuka kwa 90%.

Ukisoma vizuri posti yangu utaona kuwa misaada na mikopo kutoka WB, IMF na nchi wahisani, tunaweza kuiweka katika vitu vizazi vitatu au vinne. Na kila kizazi kilijaribu kuelezea matatizo ya kizazi cha mwanzo.

First Generation: Misaada na mikopo ilitolewa katika sekta za elimu, Afya, maji na miradi iliyoendesha na sekta ya umma. Kufikia mwishoni mwa 1970, hakuna nchi iliyoweza kujitegemea na nchi nyingi zilikuwa masikini kuliko wakati zilipopata uhuru.

Second Generation: Ilitilia mkazo sekta binafsi na kupunguza huduma za jamii.

Third Genaration: External Investments, democracy and Good Governance.

Si kila alichoongea mwalimu kilikuwa na ukweli ndani yake. Mwalimu alikuwa na mapungufu katika masuala ya kifedha.

Kuna watu mahiri tu humu ndani na sehemu ninayoishi waliobobea katika masuala ya finance, uchumi na development kuliko Mwalimu. Na kunishauri mimi kusikiliza presentation za mwalimu ni sawa na kuwanyima haki wasomi wenye fani zao. Kwanini usinishauri nisome Dambisa Moyo au William Easterly na wengineo wengi

Katika utawala wake hakuweza ku-balance bajeti. Vilevile katika utawala wake resources nyingi zilitumika katika kutoa huduma wakati uzalishaji unadorora.

Kwa mfano Tanzania ilikuwa inategemea sana uuzaji wa mazao ya kilimo. Mashamba ya katani yalitaifishwa na kupunguza shughuli za uzalishaji.

Wakulima wadogo wadogo waliamishiwa kwenye vijiji vya Ujamaa. Uzalishaji wa mazao ya chakula na biashara ukapungua. Korosho lililokuwa zao la pili, likawa halina soko tena.

Mazao ya kahawa, pamba, chai yakawa chini ya mamlaka za mazao. Mamlaka hizi zilifanya mabaya kuliko mazuri katika uzalishaji.

Hivyo kufikia 1975, ikawa inatumia zaidi ya kile inachozalisha. Na ukitumia zaidi ya kile unachozalisha unakaribisha madeni tu.

World Bank na IMF sio vyombo vya kulaumiwa. Unakwenda kule kwa sababu una matatizo. Hivyo usilaumu vyombo hivi wakati matatizo yaliofanya Tanzania kutafuta misaada katika vyombo hivi yalikuwa MAN MADE.

Kuhusu Macnamara kutoteuliwa kulikuwa na sababu nyingi. Moja alidai kuwa misaada katika sekta za jamii itasaidia nchi masikini kujitegemea. Miaka kumi toke aanze hiyo jihadi au crusade, nchi masikini zilikuwa na madeni kupindukia. Katikati ya miaka ya 70, wataalamu wengi waliona kuwa matatizo ya madeni na uchumi mbovu yalikuwa ni shock za muda mfupi zilizosababishwa na vita au ukame. Lakini kufikia mwanzoni mwa 80, ikagundulika kuwa hiyo ilikuwa ni phenomena mpya MIAFLIKA NDIVYO ILIVYO.
 
Mtanganyika:

Naona wewe ndio unaopingana na facts. Kufikia 1985 Tanzania tayari ilikuwa bankrupt State.

Kufikia 1982 misaada kwa ya kigeni ilikuwa imefikia 600 Millioni dollars. Hiki kiwango kilikuwa tayari zaidi ya 50% ya bajeti ya Tanzania.

Kufikia 1979, mishahara ya watumishi katika sekta ya umma ilishuka kwa 90%.

Ukisoma vizuri posti yangu utaona kuwa misaada na mikopo kutoka WB, IMF na nchi wahisani, tunaweza kuiweka katika vitu vizazi vitatu au vinne. Na kila kizazi kilijaribu kuelezea matatizo ya kizazi cha mwanzo.

First Generation: Misaada na mikopo ilitolewa katika sekta za elimu, Afya, maji na miradi iliyoendesha na sekta ya umma. Kufikia mwishoni mwa 1970, hakuna nchi iliyoweza kujitegemea na nchi nyingi zilikuwa masikini kuliko wakati zilipopata uhuru.

Second Generation: Ilitilia mkazo sekta binafsi na kupunguza huduma za jamii.

Third Genaration: External Investments, democracy and Good Governance.

Si kila alichoongea mwalimu kilikuwa na ukweli ndani yake. Mwalimu alikuwa na mapungufu katika masuala ya kifedha.

Kuna watu mahiri tu humu ndani na sehemu ninayoishi waliobobea katika masuala ya finance, uchumi na development kuliko Mwalimu. Na kunishauri mimi kusikiliza presentation za mwalimu ni sawa na kuwanyima haki wasomi wenye fani zao. Kwanini usinishauri nisome Dambisa Moyo au William Easterly na wengineo wengi

Katika utawala wake hakuweza ku-balance bajeti. Vilevile katika utawala wake resources nyingi zilitumika katika kutoa huduma wakati uzalishaji unadorora.

Kwa mfano Tanzania ilikuwa inategemea sana uuzaji wa mazao ya kilimo. Mashamba ya katani yalitaifishwa na kupunguza shughuli za uzalishaji.

Wakulima wadogo wadogo waliamishiwa kwenye vijiji vya Ujamaa. Uzalishaji wa mazao ya chakula na biashara ukapungua. Korosho lililokuwa zao la pili, likawa halina soko tena.

Mazao ya kahawa, pamba, chai yakawa chini ya mamlaka za mazao. Mamlaka hizi zilifanya mabaya kuliko mazuri katika uzalishaji.

Hivyo kufikia 1975, ikawa inatumia zaidi ya kile inachozalisha. Na ukitumia zaidi ya kile unachozalisha unakaribisha madeni tu.

World Bank na IMF sio vyombo vya kulaumiwa. Unakwenda kule kwa sababu una matatizo. Hivyo usilaumu vyombo hivi wakati matatizo yaliofanya Tanzania kutafuta misaada katika vyombo hivi yalikuwa MAN MADE.

Kuhusu Macnamara kutoteuliwa kulikuwa na sababu nyingi. Moja alidai kuwa misaada katika sekta za jamii itasaidia nchi masikini kujitegemea. Miaka kumi toke aanze hiyo jihadi au crusade, nchi masikini zilikuwa na madeni kupindukia. Katikati ya miaka ya 70, wataalamu wengi waliona kuwa matatizo ya madeni na uchumi mbovu yalikuwa ni shock za muda mfupi zilizosababishwa na vita au ukame. Lakini kufikia mwanzoni mwa 80, ikagundulika kuwa hiyo ilikuwa ni phenomena mpya MIAFLIKA NDIVYO ILIVYO.

I hope hatubishani out of topic, but so far i like where you're going. From 1968 to 1979 Tanzania ilikuwa inapokea misaada mingi in the form of unconditional aide. Vile vile majority ya misaada hii ilikuwa as just misaada and no pay back. Post 1980 hapa ndipo IMF and WB walipoanzisha conditional aide. 1998 WB walikubali kabisa ERP I imesababisha matatizo zaidi.

1985 watanzania wanaoishi vijiji 70% yao walikuwa na maisha magumu sana, leo hii the same number wanaface matatizo yale yale... sasa Jee IMF and WB zimesaidi nini? wakati deni letu limeongezeka kwa 100%. Mwalimu alikataa huu upuzi wa conditional aide, and that is one of the main reason iliyomfanya achie madaraka.

However, in 1985 Tanzania accepted IMF conditions, we liberalized our economy based on Regan economic ideology. We quit subsidize welfare and agriculture sector which cost us until tomorrow. It was this moment when HIV/AIDS skyrockets because we were not allowed fund Elimu kuhusu Ukimwi , it was this moment when literacy rate plunged and we never recovered, it was this moment when we crippled the local enterprises because of dumped products from west. All these mess was the effect adaptation of Economic Recovery Plan I (ERP I)policy, which was must in order to received any loan from IMF. We stacked with bill and this policy until 1995 when IMF/WB agreed that ERP I was the failure, however they didn't erase the debt because their policy didn't work. Instead they structure ERP II which allowed the government to subsidize health care.

IMF/WB orthodox praise our education which based on just increase in enrollment on primary level, but they don't talk about more primary school graduates, less opportunities in secondary and high schools, and finyu access to University education that is relevant to the job market conditions, electricity (only 1% of the rural population have access to electricity, a figure no different from 1985), healthcare ,clean water and employment opportunities (since the privatization of the former state parastatals and massive layoffs in the public sector, the majority of Tanzanians still don't have access to decent jobs).

Hivyo ni vipande vya pepa niliyo andika kwenda kwa IMF/WB with the thesis IMF/WB the deveil within.
 
Hivyo ni vipande vya pepa niliyo andika kwenda kwa IMF/WB with the thesis IMF/WB the deveil within.

Kuna watu mahiri tu humu ndani na sehemu ninayoishi waliobobea katika masuala ya finance, uchumi na development kuliko Mwalimu. Na kunishauri mimi kusikiliza presentation za mwalimu ni sawa na kuwanyima haki wasomi wenye fani zao. Kwanini usinishauri nisome Dambisa Moyo au William Easterly na wengineo wengi

.

...hata wanauchumi tunao hapa hapa JF, kwa nini iwe "No we can't"
 
Wachumi na wasomi wengine tunao wazuri sana na wengi kiasi, sio wapungufu kihivyo inavyoonekana. Kwa mawazo yangu mchango wao hauonekani sana kwenye maendeleo ya nchi yetu kutokana na mambo kadhaa.

- Tabia ya ubinafsi watanzania waliojenga kwa muda mrefu mpaka sasa imekua damuni kiasi kwamba hata wataalamu wetu hawako tayari kutumia ipasavyo ujuzi wao na muda kutatua matatizo ya nchi.
- Wanasiasa na viongozi katika ngazi mbalimbali kupenda kuwazibia wenzao bila kujali kama ni kwa manufaa ya nchi au binaft. Mathalani, mtaalam wa ardhi anapeleka proposal ya mpango mji kwenye uongozi wa wilaya na bila hata kusoma mkurugenzi anautupa kwenye kabati kwa sababu tu haoni kama kuna ulaji. Hata mishahara kwa wataalamu sio kama inavyotakiwa ndio maana wakienda sehemu nyingine wanakua na ufanisi.
- Kutokua na mfumo mzuri wa elimu. Nchi za wenzetu wana utaratibu wa kuwatumia watu wenye akili za ziada (genius) kuwezesha uvumbuzi na research mbalimbali, mfano NASA ys USA. Tanzania hatuweki kipaumbele kwenye research. Mpaka atokee mfadhili ndio watu wakimbilie mchiko.

- Kutokua na utaratibu mzuri wa kukopesha wanafunzi. Hii sio kwa vyuo tu, bali ilitakiwa hata secondary. Ndio ni gharama akini kungeweza kuwa na jinsi wanaofanya kazi wakawa wanachangia mfuko wa elimu kwa kodi kidogotu.

Hayo ni mawazo yangu
 
I hope hatubishani out of topic, but so far i like where you're going. From 1968 to 1979 Tanzania ilikuwa inapokea misaada mingi in the form of unconditional aide. Vile vile majority ya misaada hii ilikuwa as just misaada and no pay back. Post 1980 hapa ndipo IMF and WB walipoanzisha conditional aide. 1998 WB walikubali kabisa ERP I imesababisha matatizo zaidi.

1985 watanzania wanaoishi vijiji 70% yao walikuwa na maisha magumu sana, leo hii the same number wanaface matatizo yale yale... sasa Jee IMF and WB zimesaidi nini? wakati deni letu limeongezeka kwa 100%. Mwalimu alikataa huu upuzi wa conditional aide, and that is one of the main reason iliyomfanya achie madaraka.

However, in 1985 Tanzania accepted IMF conditions, we liberalized our economy based on Regan economic ideology. We quit subsidize welfare and agriculture sector which cost us until tomorrow. It was this moment when HIV/AIDS skyrockets because we were not allowed fund Elimu kuhusu Ukimwi , it was this moment when literacy rate plunged and we never recovered, it was this moment when we crippled the local enterprises because of dumped products from west. All these mess was the effect adaptation of Economic Recovery Plan I (ERP I)policy, which was must in order to received any loan from IMF. We stacked with bill and this policy until 1995 when IMF/WB agreed that ERP I was the failure, however they didn't erase the debt because their policy didn't work. Instead they structure ERP II which allowed the government to subsidize health care.

IMF/WB orthodox praise our education which based on just increase in enrollment on primary level, but they don't talk about more primary school graduates, less opportunities in secondary and high schools, and finyu access to University education that is relevant to the job market conditions, electricity (only 1% of the rural population have access to electricity, a figure no different from 1985), healthcare ,clean water and employment opportunities (since the privatization of the former state parastatals and massive layoffs in the public sector, the majority of Tanzanians still don’t have access to decent jobs).

Hivyo ni vipande vya pepa niliyo andika kwenda kwa IMF/WB with the thesis IMF/WB the deveil within.


Mtanganyika:

Unconditional aid ina negative impacts kubwa sana kwa jamii kuliko conditional aid.

Mtu au jamii inayosaidiwa unconditionally siku zote haifikirii kuwa siku moja misaada itaondoka.

Unconditional aid inalea viongozi ambao sio responsible. Madikteta na wakiritimba wengi wa Afrika walikuwa madarakani katika kipindi cha 1968-1980.

Unconditional aid inawafanya viongozi wasisikilize nini wananchi wanataka, bali wanatoa mipango yao ambayo haipo compatible na kile wananchi wanachotaka. Mfano mzuri ni Julius Kambarage Nyerere. Katika kipindi hiki alileta programs nyingi lakini hakuangalia miundo ya maisha ya watu. Kwa mfano alilazimisha watu kwenda kwenye vijiji vya ujamaa, wakati mpango mzima ulikuwa ni kinyume na matwaka ya wananchi.

Mpaka sasa unatumia mtazamo wa Nyerere ku-justify kuwa unconditional aid ilikuwa ni nzuri. Mtazamo huu una ukweli kifikra tu. Lakini ukichukua data utaona kuwa kufikia 1979, nchi zote za kiAfrika ikiwemo Botswana zilikuwa bankrupt.

Ukiondoa South Afrika na kuzichambua nchi zingine za kiAfrika, hakuna hata nchi moja iliyofanya vizuri japokuwa katika kipindi hiki kulikuwa na mafanikio katika ongezeko la wasomi na upungufu wa vifo.

Kitakwimu kuwepo kwa nchi za kiAfrika zaidi ya 50 na zote kushindwa kuendelea kwa kutumia unconditional aid, that's not a Coincidence. That's a design (MIAFLIKA NDIVYO ILIVYO).

Una-commit fallacy sasa kwa ku-correlate HIV/AIDS na masharti ya WB/IMF kwenye education. HIV/AIDS ilianza kwa nguvu sana katika mkoa wa Kagera ambao literacy yake haikuathirika na masharti hayo. Mpaka sasa hakuna statistic zozote zinazoonyesha kuwa watu wasomi wako-spared na ugonjwa huu.

Na kuthibitisha point yangu. Mwaka 1978 Tanzania ilikubwa na kipindupindu kilichoenea nchi nzima. Lakini mwaka huu Tanzania ilikuwa na literacy rate kubwa zaidi 90%. Hivyo uniconditional aid ilichofanya ni ongezeko la school enrollment, lakini quality ya elimu hiyo ilikuwa mashakani sana kwa sababu kinga ya kipindupindu ni usafi wa mazingira tu.
 
Niko safarini. Nitarudi jamvini baada ya muda. Naomba kuwataarifu kuwa kutakuwa na Toleo Maalum la Pambazuka News kuhusu 'Umuhimu wa Nyerere Leo' ambapo kutakua na mada kadhaa za kiuchumi.Nadhani itakuwa vyema kama tutazisoma na kuzijadili.
 
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