Will the Oscars, the most glamorous night of the year, be a write-off?
Chris Ayres in Los Angeles
They have survived the Great Crash, the Great Depression, the Second World War and the attempted assassination of President Reagan.
But, amid the acrimonious strikes in Hollywood, fears are growing that the Academy Awards, universally known as the Oscars, may have to be cancelled for the first time in 80 years.
The tens of millions of fans around the world who treat the awards like a celebrity horse race would not be the only ones to suffer if the February 24 event were called off.
Movie stars, studio executives, socialites and gatecrashers are all aghast at the prospect of being denied the lavish parties that accompany Hollywood's biggest night of the year.
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Perhaps most aghast are the party organisers themselves, most of whom have solicited sponsorship deals to help to pay for events that can cost up to $700,000 (£350,000) to stage.
"It's a big problem making commitments with my sub-vendors," Bill Butchkavitz, a party organiser, told Variety magazine this week. "Everything from the guy who builds the floor to the people who are renting the equipment for projecting images on the wall, you have to sign contracts with them."
Ballot papers have been posted to the Academy's 5,829 voters, who will decide which films and actors are nominated. The first round of voting ends on January 12.
But Hollywood's 2008 awards season is at risk of becoming the most high-profile casualty so far of a stand-off between studios and writers that began two months ago. The writers, represented by the Writers Guild of America (WGA), are demanding to be paid for TV shows or films broadcast over the internet. The studios argue that online technology is untested, and that to agree to fees now could prevent them from experimenting with new methods of distribution.
With no compromise in sight, the strike is beginning to sting on both sides. Many writers are broke and tired of marching outside studio gates; many studio executives are terrified of beginning a new TV season with nothing but reality-based material.
So far films have been less affected by the strike because scripts were stockpiled in advance. Nevertheless, some big projects will suffer in 2008.
Nightly news-talk shows, such as The Daily Show with Jon Stewart, who is scheduled to host the 80th Academy Awards, have been off the air for so long now that their regular staff fear that ratings may have been permanently damaged, with viewers migrating to YouTube or video games.
But the biggest question mark of all now hangs over Oscars night. The best indication of its ability to go ahead as planned will come in the next week to ten days, when the Hollywood Foreign Press Association decides whether or not to stage its January 13 Golden Globes ceremony, which has been held every year since 1944.
Before Christmas the WGA refused to give its members permission to write material for the show, even though it granted a waiver for the smaller-scale Independent Spirit Awards. The union also refused to allow the Globes organisers to use video clips that include work produced by its members. This could make the event impossible to produce.
The Hollywood Foreign Press Association said that the union's position was disappointing, while the Alliance of Motion Picture and Television Producers, which represents the studios, said that "in the category of Worst Supporting Union, the nominee is the WGA".
Actors complain that they have been put in particularly awkward situation. On the one hand, they want to support their films, and the awards season is crucial to the studios' marketing efforts. On the other, they do not want to cross any picket lines. After all, the Screen Actors Guild (SAG) is planning to renegotiate its own contract with the studios next year, as is the Directors Guild, and will want solidarity with the writers.
"You treat [the awards ceremonies] as if you are planning a vacation while your mother-in-law is ill," Stan Rosenfield, who represents George Clooney, told The Hollywood Reporter. "You book the flight and the hotel, and then if she's still not feeling well, you make a call and don't get on the plane. But you have to prepare for everything."
The SAG is expected to make life easier for its members by making a statement over the few days. The advice will be keenly awaited. Not even Steven Spielberg, set to receive the Cecil B. DeMille award for lifetime achievement at the Golden Globes, has confirmed if he will attend.
There is speculation that the WGA could allow the awards ceremonies to continue, but only on the condition that nominees support the strike. This would essentially force NBC, the TV company broadcasting the event, to campaign against itself.
Regardless of what happens at the Golden Globes, however, all eyes will be on the Oscars a month later. Since its debut in 1929, the ceremony has run every year for 80 years, surviving other industrial disputes and even the attempted assassination of Ronald Reagan in 1981, which delayed the ceremony by a day.
Whether it can survive this crisis, and continue its unbroken run, is a question that will be as hotly debated over coming weeks as who will be named Best Actor.
http://entertainment.timesonline.co.uk/tol/arts_and_entertainment/film/oscars/article3105848.ece