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Lowassa au Mwandosya kuwa Rais wa Tanzania 2015?

Discussion in 'Jukwaa la Siasa' started by Mchambuzi, Aug 27, 2007.

  1. Mchambuzi

    Mchambuzi JF-Expert Member

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    If the theory hold kwamba next president atatokea Bara na atakuwa mkristo, na kama utabiri wa siasa za Tanzania utaendelea kuwa sahihi kama ilivyokuwa kawaida ya nchi yetu, kiongozi ambae atampokea JK 2015 atakuwa ni kati ya Lowassa na Mwandosya. Ushindani utabakia between the two candidates, with Sumaye loosing again.

    The fact that Mwandosya almost fluked it in 2005 na pia kutokana na historia ya 1995 ya JK, Mwandosya stands a chance of becoming the next president of Tanzania. He will be 65 years old by November 2015.

    Assuming EL will be the PM for ten years, He is another person who stands a chance of becoming the next president of Tanzania. He stands a good chance because hes already a PM. He will be 62 years of age by November 2015.

    This prediction holds 3 factors constant:

    1. Neither of the two individuals atakumbwa na skendo mbaya (yenye ushahidi, sio majungu) ya kumuharibia sifa za kuwa kiongozi wa Tanzania. Wapo wataosema EL tayari hana hizo sifa but believe it or not, so far he has all it takes wapiga kura wa chimwaga kumpa kura nyingi sana.

    2. Another factor to hold constant is Mwandosya wins NEC candidacy for Mbeya region next month. And in actual sense, if Mwandosya wins NEC elections next month, his stands a bigger chance of becoming the next president than EL. If he looses his NEC's seat next month, he will be completely out of the race.

    3. Last factor to hold constant is if Mwandosya stays as a minister until 2015. If he will be dropped from the cabinet at any point by any reason, he will stand a lesser chance to win in 2015 and the odds will stick to EL. However, Mwandosya kuachwa kwenye baraza la mawaziri kwa misingi isiyo na hoja nzuri may boost his odds for 2015.

    It will be a very interesting scenario because these can be argued as the two smartest members of Cabinet todate.

    The question remaining is, who will make a better president in 2015 between the two? Its still 8 years away but in my view, this will be the most case scenario.

    In my other view, so far, both can make very good presidents.
     
  2. BAK

    BAK JF-Expert Member

    #2
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    Hmmm! Is there a need to discuss 2015 race while we have political turmoil that we have never seen before in our beloved country!?
     
  3. Mchambuzi

    Mchambuzi JF-Expert Member

    #3
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    Thats the question Bubu. Its the essense of my original post.Try to read your question backwards utaona umuhimu wa kufikiria ya 2015.

    Ila i think you are over exaggerating when you say Tanzania is in a political turmoil never experienced. Tafadhali fafanua and provide a series of evidence based on the past presidents. In my view, the turmoil was the most wakati wa Nyerere. This is because aliwafumba midomo wale wote ambae hawakuwa wanakubaliana nae katika sera mbali mbali za chama, serikali na maendeleo kwa ujumla. Thats the worst turmoil ever. Mambo yanayoendelea leo ni matokeo ya the earlier turmoil and will also determine the future of politics in tanzania.

    Whats happening now in Tanzania sio turmoil, its a crisis na hii inatokana na ugeni wa uongozi wote kwa jumla. Pia new leadership imekuja na changes kubwa sana ambazo watanzania hawakuzozoea - changes za kuwa na viongozi wapya - changes za kuwa na watu binafsi kuchangia maendeleo ya chama - changes za Rais na Waziri mkuu kuwa maswahiba - changes za mawaziri kadhaa kutokujua kazi. Hii ni leadership crisis.

    Watu hawaoni ni jinsi gani nchi ingeharibika kama Salim angepata urais 2005. Huo
    ndio ungekuwa mwisho wa tanzania yenye amani. Hiyo ndio ingekuwa political turmoil ever experienced. Muungano ungekuwa hatiani, na timu nzima ya nyerere ingerudi madarakani na kungekuwa na ushindani mkubwa sana ndani ya chama na kingevunjika.
     
  4. R

    Rwabugiri JF-Expert Member

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    None of these we want mbadala

    Soma alama za nyakati tafadhali!
     
  5. Mchambuzi

    Mchambuzi JF-Expert Member

    #5
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    Thats a good point. Essense ya mimi kuanzisha hii topic ni kwamba, are we aware kwamba hawa ndio watakuwa rais(mmoja wao)? au watanzania wasubiri tu kushtukizwa? Ni mbali sana 2015 but sio mbali. Kama hawa hawafai basi tuanze taratibu kuangalia nani atafaa na tujenge hoja all along kutokana na performance au events mbali mbali.

    Nyerere alisema EL anafaa na anamfahamu sana ila ajirekebishe. This means bado ana nafasi kubwa sana.

    Pia nyerere alimjua sana Mwandosya na kutaka sana aingie kwenye siasa but hakutaka. he remained to be right hand man wa Alnoor Kassum on energy issues. Zaidi ya hawa wawili, hakuna mwingine ambae leo hii yupo madarakani na Nyerere alionekana kumpenda au kupendekeza kwamba he stands a good chance kuwa kiongozi mzuri.

    Salim aestaafu na hata kama angekuwa ni kijana wa miaka 45, asingeweza kupita urais. Sio kwamba hapendwi na wapiga kura, ni kwa sababu hali ya nchi esp katika masuala ya znz ingekwenda kombo.

    Nyerere sio mungu wa Tanzania but natumia jina lake on this matter because to some JF members, its all about nyerere and who he would have prefered.
     
  6. M

    Mwafrika wa Kike JF-Expert Member

    #6
    Aug 27, 2007
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    Mchambuzi,

    Kama Lowasa na Mwandosya are two smartest members of the cabinet todate...... basi........ kuna one of the following

    1.wewe unamatatizo na analysis methodology yako.....
    2.Umelipwa na hao wawili kuwafanyia kampeni
    3.Sources zako ziko poor
    4.Nchi yetu inaelekea kuzimu.

    However, good job kwa kampeni yako though.... time will tell how long itakuwa kweli.
     
  7. K

    Kalimanzira Senior Member

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    Ni ukweli usiopingika kuwa tunahitaji kubashiri juu ya viongozi wajao, lakini haiwezi kuingia akilini kwa wakati tulionao sasa kuanza kupoteza muda muhimu tulionao wa kuinusuru nchi hii na mafisadi tulionao kwa kuanza kujadili urais wa 2015! Nadhani mwanzaisha hoja anayake kama alivyokwisha jibiwa. Hizo agenda zake aziweke pembeni kwanza tujadili suala lililombele yetu kwanza. Nawapongeza wanaoona makengeza haraka na kuyabashiri.
     
  8. Dua

    Dua JF-Expert Member

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    Mwaka huu tutaona mengi, tunasubiri mcha ngedere na mcha paka nao walete habari.
     
  9. J

    Jasusi JF-Expert Member

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    Mimi sijaona au kuwahi kusikia mahali Mwalimu Nyerere aliposema Lowassa anafaa ila ajirekebishe.
     
  10. M

    Mtanzania JF-Expert Member

    #10
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    Mchambuzi,

    Mwambie Lowassa ajibu kwanza swali la Mwalimu Nyerere, Mali kazitoa wapi?

    Prof. Mwandosya atashinda NEC mwaka huu, lakini sio kigezo cha
    kumfanya aende ikulu 2015. Sitashangaa Prof. akiamua kutokugombea ubunge 2010.
     
  11. Bongolander

    Bongolander JF-Expert Member

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    Kwa sasa nadhani hatuna la kutegemea kutoka kwenye serikali ya sasa. Kwa hiyo hakuna ubaya tukiangalia ya 2015. Itakuwa vibaya tukiwa short sided kwa kuangalia ujinga unaoendelea kwenye serikali ya sasa.

    Nakubaliana kuwa Mwandosya ni one of the smartest in the cabinet kama alivyosema mchambuzi uchaguzi uliopita unaonesha, Lakini siwezi kukubaliana kuhusu Lowassa, labda naweza kukubaliana na mwafrika wa kike. Nadhani Lowassa ni most incompetent, incapable na less intelligent na probably most corrupt. So far kama kweli kutakuwa na competition kati ya hao wawili, basi ya Mwandosya itakuwa kutokana na uadilifu na akili yake, lakini ushindani wa Lowassa utakuja kutokana na kutoa rushwa na kununua watu.

    Nadhani kama kuna watu waliofurahi baada ya Nyerere kufa Lowassa ni mmoja wapo, kwani sasa hivi hakuna anayeweza kumuuliza swali la kuwa amepata wapi mali alizo nazo. Lakini anauwezo mkubwa wa kuhonga, kwa hiyo kama akiingia kwa style hiyo.

    Ndio nchi yetu itakuwa imeingia kuzimu.
     
  12. Shalom

    Shalom JF-Expert Member

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    Du jamani kutumika kubaya. Yaani jamaa amefanikiwa kutueleza kuwa pamoja na JK kutugandamiza na marushwa na uongozi mbovu bado atachaguliwa 2010. Kweli mtikila alisema ukweli kuwa nchi hii watu wake ni sawa na NYANI. Kumbuka babu zetu walivyokuwa wanapelekwa kuuzwa na kajitu kamoja tena kana gobore halafunyenyewe ni mapandikizi ya watu kama sio unyani ni nini! halafu na sisi tumerisi du!
     
  13. M

    MzalendoHalisi JF-Expert Member

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    Yetu macho!
     
  14. Dua

    Dua JF-Expert Member

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    Kutokana na maneno ya Hosea kwenye mahojiano yake na Mwanakijiji PCB waanze kuonyesha mfano kwa huyu muungwana kuelezea alikopata mali pamoja na BWM.
     
  15. Jembajemba

    Jembajemba JF-Expert Member

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    si niliwahi sikia kua MJN alikuwa hamtaki huyu EL ?
     
  16. bokassa

    bokassa JF-Expert Member

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    Taratibuni jamani!! CCM tena!? kwani hakuna option nyingine? Kweli wa TZ manyani!!
     
  17. K

    Kakalende JF-Expert Member

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    This is another spinning game? baadhi ya watu wanajaribu kusahaulisha agenda zinazoendelea sasa hivi.
     
  18. Ben Saanane

    Ben Saanane Verified User

    #18
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    Ni bora mtu kama Magufuli.
     
  19. KadaMpinzani

    KadaMpinzani JF-Expert Member

    #19
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    Mambo ya udini hatutaki hapa, awe muislam, mkristo we just need a prezzo. Kwa kifupi haijalishi.

    Uliyosema mengine ni mazuri lakini suala la kusema sijui atakuwa dini gani thats a waste of time, kwani wapi kunasema kuna mambo ya kupokezana leo mkristo kesho muislam, na mjue bongo pia kuna wahindu vile vile, sasa wao mbona haki hawatendewi kama hivyo? Kuna wengine wasiokuwa na dini vile vile, na kuna wengine wanaanzisha dini zao kila siku!
     
  20. Kasheshe

    Kasheshe JF-Expert Member

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    Ramli hiyo jamani, Hata Sheikh Yahaya Mtaalamu wa Nyota,,, anasubiri kabla ya mwaka mmoja tu!

    Lakini Mchambuzi umeamua kuja na Ramli ya hadi 2015... Ama kweli Watanzania mko gado!!!

    Turudi jamani tuangalia quick wins za kusaidia nchi iende mbele
     
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