Deni la Taifa lapaa!

[Mzee Mwanakijiji]

Kanuni ya kawaida kabisa ya uchumi (ambayo hata Obama juzi ameigusia) ni kuwa "huwezi kutumia zaidi ya unavyoingiza". Nyambala asante kwa kulileta hili kwani nami jana na Rev. Kishoka tumekaa karibu one hour tukilizungumzia hili na kufikiria ni jinsi gani tunaweza kulimulika vizuri ili watu wajue hatari iliyopo mbele yetu. Mambo kama ya Ugiriki, Spain, Ureno na hata Tunisia yanaweza kabisa kutokea Tanzania. Lakini nilijenga hoja kubwa mbili kwanini hili bomu kwetu litachelewa kulipuka kwa sababu kuna cushions mbili kubwa sana zinazozuia a full impact kwa maisha ya wananchi (inflation, higher unemployment etc).


a. Ni foreign aid. Hawa jamaa ndio wameweka drip kwenye veins za serikali.. ni kama mgonjwa anayeharisha anapoteza a lot of fluids na wanamuongezea fluids angalau aendelee kuvuta vuta uhai kidogo. Misaada ya kigeni imesaidia sana kupunguza makali ya deni hili la taifa na matokeo yake.

b. Corruption. Ninaamini ufisadi in all its forms has become part of our economy kiasi kwamba tukiamua kuingiza kwenye vitabu vya serikali unaweza ukakuta kuwa ni source kubwa sana ya income ya kitaifa. Fikiria kwa mfano, mtu anaiba shilingi milioni 500 anafanikiwa kuanzisha biashara (hoteli n.k); hiyo biashara inaenda na kuajiri watu na within few years return yake inakaribia shilingi bilioni 1 kwa mwaka! hela ambazo zinalipiwa kodi ( i hope) na kuingizwa katika shughuli nyingine za kiuchumi.

Siyo katika level hiyo kubwa tu lakini hata kwenye level ya chini kabisa. Mtu anafanikiwa kupata shilingi milioni moja ya ziada kwa corruption. Anatumia kujianzishia kimradi na kile kimradi kinaanza kujilipa na ndani ya mwaka anaanza kupata zaidi ya shilingi milioni mbili (minimum) kama kafaida ambazo analipia kodi au anaanza kuzizungusha kwenye biashra nyingine. Sasa utaona kuwa japo kwenye makaratasi hali inaonekana ni mbaya sana lakini kihalisia bado haijawa mbaya vya kutosha kwa sababu kuna hizi kushions.

NInaamini kama Chadema ingeingia madarakani na kushughulikia haya mawili uchumi ungetakiwa kujisahihisha, matokeo yake ingebidi tuchukue austerity measures ambazo kwa hakika in a short term zingekuwa ni ngumu sana kwa mwananchi wa kawaida kwani ingekuwa ni kujaribu kulazimisha serikali iishi "within its means" na watu vile vile nao waanze kweli kutumia "kipato" chao halali kwa maisha. Hapa pangekuwa pagumu. So, njia nyepesi ndiyo inatumika.

 

[Candid Scope]

Makamu wa Rais katika kampeni alisema kikwete asingetembeza bakuli kuomba nchi ingekufa kwa njaa, na njaa hiyo ni ipi ukilinganisha na tena tunalopata.

Naridhia kabisa mabadiliko kiutawala chama kingine kishike uongozi vinginevyo tutaendelea kumpigia mbuzi gitaa.

 

[ngwendu]

Sehemu kubwa ya deni hilo ni "interest rate" payable

Kuna haja ya kufikiri kukopa kutoka kwa taasisi ambazo hazitozi riba (interest) kwa faida ya nchi na wananchi wake.

mkuu unapoteza muda wako, kwani hakuna kitu ambacho angefanya JK waG wakakubaliana nacho na kuongea ukweli kwani akili zao wamewakabidhi maaskofu, mapadre na wachumgaji kufikiria kwa niamba yao, sasa wao ni kama mavuvuzela tu.
kwa kifupi hizi porojo zote ni kwa ajili ya kadhi court, OIC na kuona jamii ingine ya kitanzania ikiwa na maendeleo.
Kuhusiana na suala la kukopa mimi sioni mantik yake kwani tunazo rasilimali za kutosha na tatizo hapa si uongozi wa JK tu bali ni tangu kupindi cha watangulizi wake. Lakini pia bado tunaweza kupata mikopo isiyokuwa na riba kwa nchi za OIC ambazo hata majirani zetu ka waganda ni wanachama, lakini ndo hivyo maaskofu na jamii zake wameyashikia bango, then unatarajia nini? mimi nadhani hata JK anajitahidi kama ningekuwa mimi ningeliachia hata likuwe mpaka hata mara 10 hasa kwa mijitu kama hii ya Tanzania.

 

[kayumba]

Matatizo yote yanatokana na usimamizi mbovu wa hiyo mikopo!

Tusipoangalia vizazi vyetu vitatulaani kwa haya tunayotenda. Kwa speed hii deni la nchi litafanya isikopesheke!

 

[kayumba]

[B]I almost told our creditors to go to Hell[/B]. Then I remembered the story of the deceased groceryman who, upon passing on, knocked at the gates of Hell and asked entrance. 
“Why do you come here?” demanded Satan. 
“I want to collect some old accounts from a couple of my former customers who died before me.” 
“How do you know they are here?” 
“Well, every time I tried to collect, this is the place they recommended me to.”

Che Nkapa na bilauli, hata mifano ndiyo hiyo hiyo!

 

[Omulangi]

Uwiii.Hili linchi hili. Mi naona tuliuze tu kila mtu akamate chake! Halisaidiki!

Sasa hela za kulipa deni la dowans tunazo mbona haya madeni mengine wakubwa wa serikali na ccm hawalipi?

Seriously hivi haiwezekani tukabinafsisha say kwa Wajerumani wakatusaidia kuendesha nchi hii??? Sijui nchi iliyowahi kufanya hivi ila si ubunifu ndiyo kiini cha maendeleo? Kitu kibaya wakati ule Wajerumani walikuja kwa nguvu na kwa hila, lakini sasa tukifanya makubaliano na mkataba usio wa kifisadi tutanufaika.

 

[Mombo Wetu]

MM thanks for your analysis
BUT tusijipe moyo eti corruption na aid zita punguza kasi ya kutunisia. Tushukuru uchumi kuwa bado wa kikijiji yaani haujawa completely commercialized so cash kwa watu wengi bado ni kwaakili ya ada na nauli kwa safari za muhimu tu kwa rural poor. Lakini danger ipo kwa tele development ambayo inasababisha watu waone wenzao wanaishi vipi tofauti na wao. Hii hasa ndo italeta utunisia haraka kama radi tena bila kujiandaa. Kumbuka hata theory za ku mitigate hii hali wachumi hawajaigundua bado.

 

[samora10]

I Wonder Why am not Surprised....

me too!

 

[Bagamoyo]

Akchuale, mapato yatokanayo na kodi yameongezeka maradufu katika kipindi hicho hicho. Hebu acheni wivu wenu sisi tutethe na Viekthi zetu

Saa za kwenda kumchukua mwanangu Dowanthi benki thatha

PatPending,
Maongezeko ya revenue ya serikali ukitia na Inflation Rate unakuta kiukweli 'mapato halisi'' yameshuka. Mfano kama mkate ulikuwa Tshs. 100 mwaka 2009 na mkate huohuo ukauzwa Tshs 500 mwaka 2010 basi pesa ya 2010 haina thamani kama ya 2009 ingawa kitarakimu inaonekana nyingi.

 

[Mzee Mwanakijiji]

Ndio nataka tuangalie vizuri hili deni la nje na deni la ndani..

 

[Gurudumu]

Mi nadhani hata hao wanaotumopesha ni wahuni Kama serikali yetu. Yaani hesabu ziko wazi kwamba nchi haina uchumi wa kulipa deni halafu wanagombea kutukopesha? Hasa wakijua kwamba pesa hizo zinaliwa na wajanja wachache. Wanaconspire kututia deni ili waweze kututawala milele. Nguvu ya umma ikiingia madarakani deni lisilipwe, waliosaini hiyo mikataba wapelekwe the Hague.

 

[Bagamoyo]

Ndio nataka tuangalie vizuri hili deni la nje na deni la ndani..

Mzee Mwanakijiji,
Nakubaliana hii thread ni muhimu kuchangiwa kwa kina, kuhusu masuala ya deni la nje na la ndani.

Kwa Tanzania ni dhahiri kabisa serikali haina lengo (target) iliyojiwekea kuhusu deni la nje na la ndani wala mfumuko wa bei usizidi kiasi fulani kwa mwaka wowote wa fedha. Ndiyo maana vitu muhimu kwa mahitaji ya mtanzania kama vyakula, nishati n.k huwa vinapaa huku serikali ikiwa haistuki na pia deni la ndani na nje lilizidi kukua kwa kasi zaidi!

Nini kifanyike:
kwanza
Mimi nadhani Benki ya Tanzania pamoja na gavana wake wapewe mamlaka kamili ya kufanya kazi zao bila kuingiliwa na serikali hapa sheria ipitishwe kukazia jambo hili. BoT wawe wanatoa taarifa zao za kitaalamu bila kuchakachuliwa na serikali.

Pili
Waziri wa fedha pia awe ni mtu ambaye pia ana mamlaka kamili ya kazi yake, akiona pesa zinataka kufujwa bila bajeti iliyopangwa ambayo imepitishwa bunge, waziri wa fedha awe na mamlaka kamili ya kukataa kuburuzwa na wakubwa wake. Ikiwa waziri wa fedha anadhani hasikilizwi basi awe mwepesi kujiuzulu kama alivyofanya Mzee Edwin Mtei walipotofautiana ki-sera na Mwalimu Nyerere. ( hapa Waziri wa fedha angetoka kambi ya upinzani na siyo chama tawala).

Tatu
Mdhibiti na Mkaguzi Mkuu wa Mahesabu wa serikali (CAG) awe anatoa ripoti kuelezea matumizi ya serikali kufuatana na dhana ya 'Value for Money' yaani matumizi yenye manufaa. Mfano
-magari ya mashangingi hayana 'value for money' ktk matumizi ya serikali.
- safari nyingi za kiserikali mikoani au nje ya nchi iwe za kirafiki, makongamano, kujifunza, kujitambulisha hazina 'value for money' ktk matumizi ya serikali
- vyeo kama vya DC( district commissioner) ni kuiingiza serikali ktk matumizi yasiyofaa.

Nne
Mambo hayo hapo juu hayawezi kutekelezwa na serikali za CCM iwe ya awamu ya IV au ya VI, hivyo utawala mpya kabisa nje ya CCM ndiyo unaweza kutekeleza mambo namba mmoja mpaka tatu hapo juu.


Kwa faida ya majadiliano nimeweka kazi kuu za Benki ya Uingereza hapa chini:


BANK OF ENGLAND
Core Purposes - Monetary Stability

Price stability and monetary policy

The first objective of any central bank is to safeguard the value of the currency in terms of what it will purchase at home and in terms of other currencies. Monetary policy is directed to achieving this objective and to providing a framework for non-inflationary economic growth. As in most other developed countries, monetary policy operates in the UK mainly through influencing the price at which money is lent, in other words the interest rate.

The Bank's price stability objective is made explicit in the present monetary policy framework. It has two main elements: an annual inflation target set each year by the Government and a commitment to an open and accountable policy-making regime.

Setting monetary policy - deciding on the level of short-term interest rates necessary to meet the Government's inflation target - is the responsibility of the Bank. In May 1997 the Government gave the Bank operational independence to set monetary policy by deciding the short-term level of interest rates to meet the Government's stated inflation target - currently 2%.'' Bank of England | About the Bank | Core Purposes | Monetary Stability

 

[Cynic]

mkuu unapoteza muda wako, kwani hakuna kitu ambacho angefanya JK waG wakakubaliana nacho na kuongea ukweli kwani akili zao wamewakabidhi maaskofu, mapadre na wachumgaji kufikiria kwa niamba yao, sasa wao ni kama mavuvuzela tu.
kwa kifupi hizi porojo zote ni kwa ajili ya kadhi court, OIC na kuona jamii ingine ya kitanzania ikiwa na maendeleo.
Kuhusiana na suala la kukopa mimi sioni mantik yake kwani tunazo rasilimali za kutosha na tatizo hapa si uongozi wa JK tu bali ni tangu kupindi cha watangulizi wake. Lakini pia bado tunaweza kupata mikopo isiyokuwa na riba kwa nchi za OIC ambazo hata majirani zetu ka waganda ni wanachama, lakini ndo hivyo maaskofu na jamii zake wameyashikia bango, then unatarajia nini? mimi nadhani hata JK anajitahidi kama ningekuwa mimi ningeliachia hata likuwe mpaka hata mara 10 hasa kwa mijitu kama hii ya Tanzania.

Upotoshaji mtupu... OIC wana hela gani ya kukopa? Wameshindwa hata kutoa grant ya US$ 800000 tu kwa Waislam wa Uganda waliyokuwa wanatafuta kujengea Islamic Univ. in Uganda..

 

[KiJo]

Inasikitisha sana kuona rasilimali za nchi zinakwisha na wachache wetu ndio wanao nufaika nazo na kuiuza nchi, I happened to meet one of the economist from EU alikuja kutembelea tanzania akasema na hapa namnukuu "if the tanzanians could realize what they have, only tourism was enough to run the country's budget each year. Among the top 100 richest country tanzania would be among but i don't know what your people think with, its not the normal brain that an ordinary human being use." Inauma sana nikikumbuka haya maneno, tunaitaji kuamka before its too late guys.

 

[BAK]

DEBT CRISIS WAKE-UP CALL Thursday, 27 January 2011 21:55

With the massive increase in our national debt stock, the country is headed for a serious financial crisis. One of the possible adverse consequences is that Tanzania risks losing its hard-won credit worthiness with financial institutions and donors.

The skyrocketing national debt, which has hit the Sh15 trillion mark, is a reflection of the government’s expenditure exceeding the revenue it collects. Between 2007 and June last year, the debt rose from $6.1 billion to $10.2 billion.

Experts are warning that the government must take serious measures to reduce public expenditure. The measures may include trimming the Cabinet, maximizing revenue sources, adhering to fiscal discipline, and limiting public sector borrowing.

Tanzania earned accolades for implementing such measures a decade ago, when the country got $3 billion worth of debt relief through the Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) initiative.

We urge the government to adopt the recommendations in the Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA) because they are forward-looking and serve as a warning about the potential debt risks and the need for precautionary actions.

The government should borrow prudently and integrate debt policy into the country’s macroeconomic policy. We must put our house in order now or suffer the consequences.

 

[Gosbertgoodluck]

Kanuni ya kawaida kabisa ya uchumi (ambayo hata Obama juzi ameigusia) ni kuwa "huwezi kutumia zaidi ya unavyoingiza". Nyambala asante kwa kulileta hili kwani nami jana na Rev. Kishoka tumekaa karibu one hour tukilizungumzia hili na kufikiria ni jinsi gani tunaweza kulimulika vizuri ili watu wajue hatari iliyopo mbele yetu. Mambo kama ya Ugiriki, Spain, Ureno na hata Tunisia yanaweza kabisa kutokea Tanzania. Lakini nilijenga hoja kubwa mbili kwanini hili bomu kwetu litachelewa kulipuka kwa sababu kuna cushions mbili kubwa sana zinazozuia a full impact kwa maisha ya wananchi (inflation, higher unemployment etc).


a. Ni foreign aid. Hawa jamaa ndio wameweka drip kwenye veins za serikali.. ni kama mgonjwa anayeharisha anapoteza a lot of fluids na wanamuongezea fluids angalau aendelee kuvuta vuta uhai kidogo. Misaada ya kigeni imesaidia sana kupunguza makali ya deni hili la taifa na matokeo yake.

b. Corruption. Ninaamini ufisadi in all its forms has become part of our economy kiasi kwamba tukiamua kuingiza kwenye vitabu vya serikali unaweza ukakuta kuwa ni source kubwa sana ya income ya kitaifa. Fikiria kwa mfano, mtu anaiba shilingi milioni 500 anafanikiwa kuanzisha biashara (hoteli n.k); hiyo biashara inaenda na kuajiri watu na within few years return yake inakaribia shilingi bilioni 1 kwa mwaka! hela ambazo zinalipiwa kodi ( i hope) na kuingizwa katika shughuli nyingine za kiuchumi.

Siyo katika level hiyo kubwa tu lakini hata kwenye level ya chini kabisa. Mtu anafanikiwa kupata shilingi milioni moja ya ziada kwa corruption. Anatumia kujianzishia kimradi na kile kimradi kinaanza kujilipa na ndani ya mwaka anaanza kupata zaidi ya shilingi milioni mbili (minimum) kama kafaida ambazo analipia kodi au anaanza kuzizungusha kwenye biashra nyingine. Sasa utaona kuwa japo kwenye makaratasi hali inaonekana ni mbaya sana lakini kihalisia bado haijawa mbaya vya kutosha kwa sababu kuna hizi kushions.

NInaamini kama Chadema ingeingia madarakani na kushughulikia haya mawili uchumi ungetakiwa kujisahihisha, matokeo yake ingebidi tuchukue austerity measures ambazo kwa hakika in a short term zingekuwa ni ngumu sana kwa mwananchi wa kawaida kwani ingekuwa ni kujaribu kulazimisha serikali iishi "within its means" na watu vile vile nao waanze kweli kutumia "kipato" chao halali kwa maisha. Hapa pangekuwa pagumu. So, njia nyepesi ndiyo inatumika.

MM,
Ninakubaliana na wewe kuhusu principle ya kawaida ya uchumi kwamba kama unakula zaidi ya unachozalisha maana yake ni kwamba kuna source nyuingine inayousaidia. Vinginevyo, kama source hiyo isingekuwepo, ungeweza kufanya mojawapo ya mambo mawili. Ama upunguze kiasi unachokula ili kilingane na unachozalisha au uongeze uzalishaji kukidhi mahitaji.

Kwa nchi kama Tanzania serikali yetu haijali na wala sioni jitihada za ku-adopt any of the two options. Viongozi wetu wanaishi extravagantly (sina hakika na spelling) kana kwamba uchumi wa nchi ni mzuri. Kuna wakati Dr. Slaa wakati wa kampuni aliongea jambo moja (sina hakika kama ni kweli) kwamba serikali yetu inatumia fedha za mikopo mpaka kwenye masuala ya kiutawala. Aibu sana!

Kwa upande wa pili, serikali yetu haifanyi jitihada ya kuongeza uzalishaji. Ukiangalia nchi zingine duniani, watanzania ni kama hatupo kwenye orodha zinazozalisha bidhaa na kuuza kwa nchi zingine. Sisi ni wanunuzi zaidi na ndiyo maana petty business za kimachinga kuuza bidhaa za kichina ndiyo zinashamiri sana mitaani.

This can at least explain why the national debt is becoming high day-after-day.

Watanzania wangelitambua suala hili vizuri, ccm isingeendelea kukaa madarakani.

 

[Gosbertgoodluck]

BoT: deni la taifa limeongezeka kutoka USD 6.1 billion mwezi June 2007 hadi USD 10.8 billion mwezi October 2010.

Wandugu,
Mimi siyo mchumi, lakini pamoja na umbumbumbu wangu siioni mantiki katika hili kwamba utawezaje kusema uchumi unakua wakati rate ya kuongezeka deni nayo inakuwa?? Kinachozungumzwa hapa ni 'rate' kwamba ile kasi ya kuongezeka kwa deni kwa nini iongezeke wakati viongozi wet wanatuambia kwenye majukwaa kwamba uchumi unaimarika. Naomba wachumi watuambie kama hili linawezekana. Vinginevyo, mimi naamini kuwa ni mwendelezo wa usanii uleule wa jk na serikali yake.

 

[Nyambala]

mkuu unapoteza muda wako, kwani hakuna kitu ambacho angefanya JK waG wakakubaliana nacho na kuongea ukweli kwani akili zao wamewakabidhi maaskofu, mapadre na wachumgaji kufikiria kwa niamba yao, sasa wao ni kama mavuvuzela tu.
kwa kifupi hizi porojo zote ni kwa ajili ya kadhi court, OIC na kuona jamii ingine ya kitanzania ikiwa na maendeleo.
Kuhusiana na suala la kukopa mimi sioni mantik yake kwani tunazo rasilimali za kutosha na tatizo hapa si uongozi wa JK tu bali ni tangu kupindi cha watangulizi wake. Lakini pia bado tunaweza kupata mikopo isiyokuwa na riba kwa nchi za OIC ambazo hata majirani zetu ka waganda ni wanachama, lakini ndo hivyo maaskofu na jamii zake wameyashikia bango, then unatarajia nini? mimi nadhani hata JK anajitahidi kama ningekuwa mimi ningeliachia hata likuwe mpaka hata mara 10 hasa kwa mijitu kama hii ya Tanzania.

So is this the solution? Mkuu mjadala huu is bigger than hizi cheap rhetorics mnazoziendekeza. Kwa hiyo ukikopa huko the so called OIC na ukatumia zaidi ya mapato you will end up with no debt si ndivyo?

 

[Nyambala]

"Experts are warning that the government must take serious measures to reduce public expenditure. The measures may include trimming the Cabinet, maximizing revenue sources, adhering to fiscal discipline, and limiting public sector borrowing."

With the economist we have, JK this is nnot part of his agenda. The dude can't walk the talk just like that!

 

[kijiichake]

Pana kazi kweli kweli, ndani ya miaka mitano ijayo itafikia watu kuchinja watoto wao. Wawa chemshe chunguni kama kitoweo.