A Mexican is twice richer than Tanzania

[Anfaal]

Unachoshindwa kuelewa au ku obfuscate ni kwamba nikishasema pesa / mali nishacover pesa na asset, regardless ya uchafuchafu mwingine wa shrt term/ long term etc.

Kwa hiyo nionyeshe nilipokosea wapi?

Nikisema pesa na mali za Slim ni $ 53.5 billion unaweza kunisahihisha? Basically ndicho unachojaribu kufanya.

Umekosea saaana.
1.Pesa zipo ndani ya mali. Kwahiyo huna haja ya kurudiarudia neno.
2. Km mali ndiyo assets, then networth ya Slim ni more than $53.5 billion. Kwasababu hiyo 53.5 imepatikana baada ya kusubtract liabilities from mali (assets). Naomba tuelewane mali ni assets na networth si assets peke yake. By the way inatosha tulipofikia.

 

[Kiranga]

Umekosea saaana.
1.Pesa zipo ndani ya mali. Kwahiyo huna haja ya kurudiarudia neno.
2. Km mali ndiyo assets, then networth ya Slim ni more than $53.5 billion. Kwasababu hiyo 53.5 imepatikana baada ya kusubtract liabilities from mali (assets). Naomba tuelewane mali ni assets na networth si assets peke yake. By the way inatosha tulipofikia.

Wewe hueleweki, mara unataka unyambulisho wa short term/ long term, ukiletewa unyambulisho huo huo, wa kuigawanya mali katika liquid and illiquid types za mali kwa mfano (cash/ other assets - specifically called non-cash assets-, cash is a special type of asset because in some aspects an asset is defined as a cashable commodity) unauliza kwanini ninanyumbulisha.

Wewe una obfuscate tu.....

Main points nilizo make ni mbili.

1. Si kweli kwamba Slim ni "twice as rich" as Tanzania kwa sababu huwezi kucompare net worth ya mtu ( accumulated over the years) na GDP ya mwaka mmoja ya nchi, vipimo havija cover timeframe sawa.

2. Hata baada ya kusema hayo ya namba 1 juu, bado ni aibu kwa Mtu mmoja kuwa na mali worth twice our GDP.

There is no conflict or contradiction hapo, which is what you have been trying to do from the start.

Hii singlemindednes isiyoweza ku deal na multiple tracks of thoughts inakufanya usiweze ku chew gum na kutembea at the same time.

 

[Anfaal]

Wewe hueleweki, mara unataka unyambulisho wa short term/ long term, ukiletewa unyambulisho huo huo, wa kuigawanya mali katika liquid and illiquid types za mali kwa mfano (cash/ other assets - specifically called non-cash assets-, cash is a special type of asset because in some aspects an asset is defined as a cashable commodity) unauliza kwanini ninanyumbulisha.

Wewe una obfuscate tu.....

Main points nilizo make ni mbili.

1. Si kweli kwamba Slim ni "twice as rich" as Tanzania kwa sababu huwezi kucompare net worth ya mtu ( accumulated over the years) na GDP ya mwaka mmoja ya nchi, vipimo havija cover timeframe sawa.

2. Hata baada ya kusema hayo ya namba 1 juu, bado ni aibu kwa Mtu mmoja kuwa na mali worth twice our GDP.

There is no conflict or contradiction hapo, which is what you have been trying to do from the start.

Hii singlemindednes isiyoweza ku deal na multiple tracks of thoughts inakufanya usiweze ku chew gum na kutembea at the same time.

Oh imebidi nirudi, soma post yangu ya kwanza kabisa katika mjadala huu. Nilikanusha vikali juu ya mlinganisho wa GDP na networth nikieleza wazi kuwa ni measure tofauti. Tene broadly GDP ni economic measure while networth ni accounting measure ambayo imejaa midude mingi inayojicontradict saana na finance. Lakini sasa nilikuwa nataka kuweka sawa assets (mali) na networth. Ukianzisha defn ya liquidity kwenye assets cummulatively utarudi kwenye total assets kama ilivyo kwenye time period frame. Mie niseme wazi nakubaliana na wewe kuwa havilinganishi kama nilivyosisitiza mwanzoni ila nakushauri isivinyumbulishe kwa sababu huna knowledge ya kutosha ya vitu hivi.Tena basi sijaona hasa umesema nini juu ya post yangu ya juu hapo juu ya assets na networth. Ukikubali unatakiwa kusema na sio unakausha.

 

[Kiranga]

Oh imebidi nirudi, soma post yangu ya kwanza kabisa katika mjadala huu. Nilikanusha vikali juu ya mlinganisho wa GDP na networth nikieleza wazi kuwa ni measure tofauti. Tene broadly GDP ni economic measure while networth ni accounting measure ambayo imejaa midude mingi inayojicontradict saana na finance. Lakini sasa nilikuwa nataka kuweka sawa assets (mali) na networth. Ukianzisha defn ya liquidity kwenye assets cummulatively utarudi kwenye total assets kama ilivyo kwenye time period frame. Mie niseme wazi nakubaliana na wewe kuwa havilinganishi kama nilivyosisitiza mwanzoni ila nakushauri isivinyumbulishe kwa sababu huna knowledge ya kutosha ya vitu hivi.

Na wewe ndiye mwenye knowledge? Mbona unashindwa hata kueleza folly ya analysis ya mtu asiye na knowledge?

Hivi unahitaji knowledge kubwa sana kujua kwamba pato zima la taifa la Tanzania kuwa nusu ya mali za mtu fulani ni kashfa? Regardless ya tecnicalities za GDP na net worth.

Huyu Mmexico ana mali mara mbili ya uzalishaji wote uliotokea Tanzania katika mwaka mzima.

Tell me you dont see something wrong with this picture and I will show you a simpleton.

 

[Anfaal]

Na wewe ndiye mwenye knowledge? Mbona unashindwa hata kueleza folly ya analysis ya mtu asiye na knowledge?

Hivi unahitaji knowledge kubwa sana kujua kwamba pato zima la taifa la Tanzania kuwa nusu ya mali za mtu fulani ni kashfa? Regardless ya tecnicalities za GDP na net worth.

Huyu Mmexico ana mali mara mbili ya uzalishaji wote uliotokea Tanzania katika mwaka mzima.

Tell me you dont see something wrong with this picture and I will show you a simpleton.

Sasa tunaweza kujadiliana maana tumeelewana kwenye basic issues. Unafaham kuwa Denmark na Norway kila moja inakadiliwa kuwa na GDP ya USD 350billiion. Kwahiyo huyo bwana ukimzidisha mara takribani nane ni kashfa kwa Denmark na Norway? Hebu tuache kulinganisha hivi vitu maana havinani sijui unakuwa unameasure nini? Zipo economics measures nyingi tu tungeweza kulinganishia ila makala hiyo hapo juu na ulinganishaji ni upotoshaji mkubwa saana. Maana components hazifanani. Overall HAVILINGANISHIKI.

 

[Kiranga]

Sasa tunaweza kujadiliana maana tumeelewana kwenye basic issues. Unafaham kuwa Denmark na Norway kila moja inakadiliwa kuwa na GDP ya USD 350billiion. Kwahiyo huyo bwana ukimzidisha mara takribani nane ni kashfa kwa Denmark na Norway? Hebu tuache kulinganisha hivi vitu maana havinani sijui unakuwa unameasure nini? Zipo economics measures nyingi tu tungeweza kulinganishia ila makala hiyo hapo juu na ulinganishaji ni upotoshaji mkubwa saana. Maana components hazifanani. Overall HAVILINGANISHIKI.

Naona inabidi urudi shule ya msingi, ukajifunze vizuri hesabu za kuzidisha na kugawanya.

Maana huelewi tofauti ya nusu ya na mara nane ya.

We are talking of a factor of sixteenfold, sixteenfold for atoms sake!

That is 1600% Wewe unataka kulinganisha tofauti ya 1600%?

Halafu, as if that is not enough hujaangalia populations za Norway na Denmark ili uweze kuweka vitu katika perspective.

As if that is not enough, hujaweka maanani maliasili, arable land etc etc.

Usitake ku dumb down complex issues.

 

[Anfaal]

Naona inabidi urudi shule ya msingi, ukajifunze vizuri hesabu za kuzidisha na kugawanya.

Maana huelewi tofauti ya nusu ya na mara nane ya.

We are talking of a factor of sixteenfold, sixteenfold for atoms sake!

That is 1600% Wewe unataka kulinganisha tofauti ya 1600%?

Halafu, as if that is not enough hujaangalia populations za Norway na Denmark ili uweze kuweka vitu katika perspective.

As if that is not enough, hujaweka maanani maliasili, arable land etc etc.

Usitake ku dumb down complex issues.

Duh sasa wewe ndio hueleweki. Sijaizungumzia per capital bali hiyo ni nominal. Nimeweka hivyo baada ya post yako kulazimisha tukubali kuwa GDP na networth vinalinganishika. Labda niandike hesabu zangu za darasa la pili kama ulivyotaka. GDP in nominal terms kwa Denmark (maana na mjadala wa Tanzania ulikuwa kwenye nominal na si per capital) ni takribani USD 350 billions. Na huyo bwana ni 53.5 billions=350/53.5= is roughly 7 times. Nikakuuliza kama Denamrk na utajiri ule tunazungumzia huyu bwana is just 1/7 ya Denmark kwahiyo wakiwa 7 inamaana ndiyo uwezo wa Denmark. Na tunakubaliana si kweli. Kwahiyo GDP hailinganishi na networth hata mtu aje na makala za kupamba hakuna kitu kama hicho maana hata components zao ni tofauto kabisa. Kwahiyo hatuitendei haki Tanzania kulinganisha na networth ya mtu. Zipo economic measures nyingine. Km tunaweza basi tuanze na assets zake kuanzia ile twin tower ya bank kuu, state house, nyumba za serikali, balozi zake nje ya nchi, achilia mbali rasilimali nyingine utagundua kuwa we are far better than this guy. I probably think that, some thing is not clear between us. Its very likely, someone else can bridge the gap of our understandings. The general observation is that, we're failing somewhere. Thought we could have agreed earlier but seems the discussion is endless. Naamini lengo si kuaibishana km ulivyosema. Naamini kabisa mjadala huu ni proffessional based than politics.

 

[Kiranga]

Duh sasa wewe ndio hueleweki. Sijaizungumzia per capital bali hiyo ni nominal. Nimeweka hivyo baada ya post yako kulazimisha tukubali kuwa GDP na networth vinalinganishika. Labda niandike hesabu zangu za darasa la pili kama ulivyotaka. GDP in nominal terms kwa Denmark (maana na mjadala wa Tanzania ulikuwa kwenye nominal na si per capital) ni takribani USD 350 billions. Na huyo bwana ni 53.5 billions=350/53.5= is roughly 7 times. Nikakuuliza kama Denamrk na utajiri ule tunazungumzia huyu bwana is just 1/7 ya Denmark kwahiyo wakiwa 7 inamaana ndiyo uwezo wa Denmark. Na tunakubaliana si kweli. Kwahiyo GDP hailinganishi na networth hata mtu aje na makala za kupamba hakuna kitu kama hicho maana hata components zao ni tofauto kabisa. Kwahiyo hatuitendei haki Tanzania kulinganisha na networth ya mtu. Zipo economic measures nyingine. Km tunaweza basi tuanze na assets zake kuanzia ile twin tower ya bank kuu, state house, nyumba za serikali, balozi zake nje ya nchi, achilia mbali rasilimali nyingine utagundua kuwa we are far better than this guy. I probably think that, some thing is not clear between us. Its very likely, someone else can bridge the gap of our understandings. The general observation is that, we're failing somewhere. Thought we could have agreed earlier but seems the discussion is endless. Naamini lengo si kuaibishana km ulivyosema. Naamini kabisa mjadala huu ni proffessional based than politics.

Nimepoint out tofauti ya GDP na net worth.

Nikaeleza jinsi gani kwamba, ingawa GDP na net worth ni tofauti bado ni kashfa kwa nchi nzima kuwa na GDP iliyo nusu ya net worth ya mtu mmoja. Yaani kuongelea mahesabu ya nchi nzima kwa mwaka mzima kuyalinganisha na net worth ya mtu ya mwaka mmoja ni aibu, hili halipingiki kwa mtu yeyote mwenye ku reason.Hususan kwa nchi ambayo si island nation, ina ardhi kubwa maliasili kibao na watu kibao kama bongo.Naelewa tofauti ya GDP na net worth, but despite the difference, hizi figures ni scandalous.

Halafu Slim ana dola 53, Denmark na Norway wana uzalishaji kwa mwaka takriban dola 350 kila mmoja, sie Tanzania tunauzalishaji wa dola 24. All in billions.

Sasa wewe huoni kwamba 24 ni sehemu ya 53.5? Kwamba 24 haijafika hata nusu ya 53.5?

Huoni kwamba hao kina Denmark na Norway wamempita huyu bwana takriban mara 7?

Unaweza kulinganisha mtu aliye na takriban 700% ya kitu fulani na aliye na 50%?

Unaona kwamba hizi hesabu ziko angalau karibu? Is this the best you can do?
Ndiye mtu mwenye knowledge unayejishaua hivi? I mean hata tukiweka in terms of umbali, tukupe hapa km 50 na km 700 uchague za kutembea unaweza kuziweka zote katika level moja? Hata hilo gari lunavyoliandaa kwa safari hizi mbili utafanya maandalizi tofauti.

Wewe umepata basics zako za arithmetics wapi mpaka hujui tofauti ya kugawanya na kuzidisha?

 

[Zungu Pule]

Mazee mbona vitu viko wazi hapo juu, tena para ya kwanza tu, au uvivu wa kusoma?



Kuhusu GDP ona wiki hii hapa

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gross_domestic_product

Halafu point yako ya "is it realistic" ina akili sana.Kwa sababu nchi yetu yenyewe "Data not available" na kuna a whole underground economy inaendelea watu wanauza Tanzanite Kenya and some shyt like that, Wamalawi hawana machimbo ya dhahabu lakini wanauza dhahabu wanayouziwa na wabongo katika blackmarket, kwa hiyo hii GDP yetu yenyewe haiko accurate.Ingawa hata ikiwa aacurate I doubt inaweza ku double.

Good. Btw, wewe umeandika kwenye post yako kwamba utajiri wa Bw. Slim ni billioni 53. Sasa ulitaka mimi nieleweje? Kwamba hizi ni T.Sh. au ni USD or any other currency? Then, unanituhumu kuwa sina macho au mvivu wa kusoma kwamba vitu viko wazi para ya kwanza!! Yes, para ya kwanza ilisema bayana kwamba ni USD. Wewe hukusema hivyo. Take it easy though!

Well, it seems hukuielewa sehemu ya kwanza [GDP inapima nini?] ya swali langu. Ingawaje katika ufafanuzi wako umegusia point niliyoilenga. Kwamba kutumia GDP as a measure of anything is simply a joke and it is by all means flawed. Nimehudhuria lecture nyingi kuhusiana na hii kitu [plus the concept of green accounting] na conclusion ndiyo hiyo. Mr. Sarkozy alichukua hatua kuunda tume iliyokutanisha jopo la wataalamu liliongozwa na Prof. Stiglitz and Prof. Sen, among others, na conclusion yao ni kwamba we need to forget about GDP and search for an alternative measure of economic performance. Follow the link: http://www.stiglitz-sen-fitoussi.fr/en/index.htm.

 

[Kiranga]

Good. Btw, wewe umeandika kwenye post yako kwamba utajiri wa Bw. Slim ni billioni 53. Sasa ulitaka mimi nieleweje? Kwamba hizi ni T.Sh. au ni USD or any other currency? Then, unanituhumu kuwa sina macho au mvivu wa kusoma kwamba vitu viko wazi para ya kwanza!! Yes, para ya kwanza ilisema bayana kwamba ni USD. Wewe hukusema hivyo. Take it though!

Well, it seems hukuielewa sehemu ya kwanza [GDP inapima nini?] ya swali langu. Ingawaje katika ufafanuzi wako umegusia point niliyoilenga. Kwamba kutumia GDP as a measure of anything is simply a joke and it is by all means flawed. Nimehudhuria lecture nyingi kuhusiana na hii kitu [plus the concept of green accounting] na conclusion ndiyo hiyo. Mr. Sarkozy alichukua hatua kuunda tume iliyokutanisha jopo la wataalamu liliongozwa na Prof. Stiglitz and Prof. Sen, among others, na conclusion yao ni kwamba we need to forget about GDP and search an alternative measure of economic performance. Follow the link: http://www.stiglitz-sen-fitoussi.fr/en/index.htm.

Nilitegemea msomaji awe familiaar na currency tunayoongelea kutoka post ya kwanza, kwa hiyo sikuona umuhimu wa kurudiarudia currency.Kama unataka kuleta ubishiubishi wa kutaka watu waandike kama wanaandika Ph.D thesis hapa sahau.You have to do the reading from the first post, if you do not I will consider you lazy.Kitu kikishakuwa initialized juu hakuna haja ya kukirudia rudia, hili wanalijua kuanzia computer programmers mpaka waandishi, shukuru hata miye ninayetumia maneno full, utakutana na millenial kids humu watakupiga na lugha ya tweets utashangaa mwenyewe.Hii ni internet forum, si Ph.D thesis presentation, get it straight.

Mara sikuelewa point, mara nimegusia point uliyoilenga, will you make up your mind?

Ukitaka kuleta detailed argument on GDP hapa nitakwambia any economic data about Tanzania is unreliable, kwa hiyo in short huwezi kufanya discussion.

Na hata hao mabilionea wakina Slim billions zao zina fluctuate kila siku, after all the bulk of that wealth is in stocks, and stocks go up and down every day, let alone on a yearly basis.

The point of these discussions ni kwamba tunapata a round figure ya kujua whereabout ya tulipo.Kwamba kama tuna official GDP ya $ 24 billion, hata ukiweka a margin of error ya 20% (very generous) ambayo itakupa GDP anywhere between $ 19 billion na $ 29 billion, halafu ukampa Slim mwenye net worth ya $ 53.5 billion a more conservative margin of error ya 10%, bado upper limit yake itakuwa about twice our upper limit.

I mean hata kama GDP yetu imekosewa kwa kiasi kikubwa sana, hatumfikii (in so far as a comparison between GDP and net worth can go, I know this was objected before, and I even raised the objection, but the point here is that we are mentioning national figures- albeit yearly ones- in the same breath as the net worth of one person) hata tukizidishiwa 40% tuseme kwamba informal sector yetu ina account another 40% ya pesa za slim (about 4/5 ya GDP yetu) ambayo haijahesabiwa, bado tutakuwa na GDP around 90% ya net worth ya Slim. It will take another 50% ya net worth ya Slim, a doubling of our GDP, ili tumfikie. I mean hata kama kuna makosa, makosa haya ku amount to a complete 100% of our GDP is a tall order.Labda unieleweshe vinginevyo.

Ukitaka kuleta academics hapa mimi naweza kukuambia hata huyo Slim mwenyewe si mtu tajiri kuliko wote, kuna mijibaba huko Colombia haiwezi hata kutaja mali zao kwa sababu zinahusika na mambo illegal.Kuna potential matatizo na kila kitu unachoweza kusema kuhusu hizi comparison.

If you really wanna go down to it watu wanaweza hata kuiquestion number theory na kumu invoke Karl Popper, wengine wakamquestion Euclid na kukwambia kwamba parallel lines ukizichora long enough zinakutana.

Kwa hiyo, kama Kenny Rogers alivyokwambia katika "The Gambler"

You got to know when to hold 'em, know when to fold 'em,
Know when to walk away and know when to run.
You never count your money when you're sittin' at the table.
There'll be time enough for countin' when the dealin's done.

Meaning, you gotta know when to apply Newton's laws of Physics, and when to apply Einstein's relativistic ones.You do not want to use relativistic calculating horsepower for a problem that you can solve very well with Newtonian calculations.

Usitumie gobole, au hata sledgehammer kuua nzi.

There is such a thing as over-analysis. Usitumie mapendekezo hot off the press ya kina Stiglitz kufanya uchambuzi wa vitu vilivyo clearly miles apart.

Slim kuwa na net worth iliyo mara mbili ya GDP yetu ni a crying shame.Simple like that.

 

[Anfaal]

Nilitegemea msomaji awe familiaar na currency tunayoongelea kutoka post ya kwanza, kwa hiyo sikuona umuhimu wa kurudiarudia currency.Kama unataka kuleta ubishiubishi wa kutaka watu waandike kama wanaandika Ph.D thesis hapa sahau.You have to do the reading from the first post, if you do not I will consider you lazy.Kitu kikishakuwa initialized juu hakuna haja ya kukirudia rudia, hili wanalijua kuanzia computer programmers mpaka waandishi, shukuru hata miye ninayetumia maneno full, utakutana na millenial kids humu watakupiga na lugha ya tweets utashangaa mwenyewe.Hii ni internet forum, si Ph.D thesis presentation, get it straight.

Mara sikuelewa point, mara nimegusia point uliyoilenga, will you make up your mind?

Ukitaka kuleta detailed argument on GDP hapa nitakwambia any economic data about Tanzania is unreliable, kwa hiyo in short huwezi kufanya discussion.

Na hata hao mabilionea wakina Slim billions zao zina fluctuate kila siku, after all the bulk of that wealth is in stocks, and stocks go up and down every day, let alone on a yearly basis.

The point of these discussions ni kwamba tunapata a round figure ya kujua whereabout ya tulipo.Kwamba kama tuna official GDP ya $ 24 billion, hata ukiweka a margin of error ya 20% (very generous) ambayo itakupa GDP anywhere between $ 19 billion na $ 29 billion, halafu ukampa Slim mwenye net worth ya $ 53.5 billion a more conservative margin of error ya 10%, bado upper limit yake itakuwa about twice our upper limit.

I mean hata kama GDP yetu imekosewa kwa kiasi kikubwa sana, hatumfikii (in so far as a comparison between GDP and net worth can go, I know this was objected before, and I even raised the objection, but the point here is that we are mentioning national figures- albeit yearly ones- in the same breath as the net worth of one person) hata tukizidishiwa 40% tuseme kwamba informal sector yetu ina account another 40% ya pesa za slim (about 4/5 ya GDP yetu) ambayo haijahesabiwa, bado tutakuwa na GDP around 90% ya net worth ya Slim. It will take another 50% ya net worth ya Slim, a doubling of our GDP, ili tumfikie. I mean hata kama kuna makosa, makosa haya ku amount to a complete 100% of our GDP is a tall order.Labda unieleweshe vinginevyo.

Ukitaka kuleta academics hapa mimi naweza kukuambia hata huyo Slim mwenyewe si mtu tajiri kuliko wote, kuna mijibaba huko Colombia haiwezi hata kutaja mali zao kwa sababu zinahusika na mambo illegal.Kuna potential matatizo na kila kitu unachoweza kusema kuhusu hizi comparison.

If you really wanna go down to it watu wanaweza hata kuiquestion number theory na kumu invoke Karl Popper, wengine wakamquestion Euclid na kukwambia kwamba parallel lines ukizichora long enough zinakutana.

Kwa hiyo, kama Kenny Rogers alivyokwambia katika "The Gambler"


Meaning, you gotta know when to apply Newton's laws of Physics, and when to apply Einstein's relativistic ones.You do not want to use relativistic calculating horsepower for a problem that you can solve very well with Newtonian calculations.

Usitumie gobole, au hata sledgehammer kuua nzi.

There is such a thing as over-analysis.

Slim kuwa na net worth iliyo mara mbili ya GDP yetu ni a crying shame.Simple like that.

Ninajitahidi kuchuna lakini naona unaongeza mengine. Eti utajiri wao unakuwa kwenye stocks? Ni business gani hiyo inayoimpact networth ya mtu iwepo kwenye concentrated kwenye liquid assets. Hebu tufahamishe hiyo biashara ya Slim.
Umezungumzia issue za money laundering hapo kwenye issue ya Colombia eti kwamba wanaweza kuwa na utajiri kuliko huo, unauthibitisho au ni kuongea tu. Maana hata zile cartel za Mexico hazipo hivyo.

 

[Kiranga]

Ninajitahidi kuchuna lakini naona unaongeza mengine. Eti utajiri wao unakuwa kwenye stocks? Ni business gani hiyo inayoimpact networth ya mtu iwepo kwenye concentrated kwenye liquid assets. Hebu tufahamishe hiyo biashara ya Slim.
Umezungumzia issue za money laundering hapo kwenye issue ya Colombia eti kwamba wanaweza kuwa na utajiri kuliko huo, unauthibitisho au ni kuongea tu. Maana hata zile cartel za Mexico hazipo hivyo.

Huyu jamaa hana any clue na anachokisema.

Wewe ulifikiri haya mabilioni ni hela ziko benki na majumba?

Hebu soma hapa chini uone wanavyolinganisha utajiri huu na the movements of stock markets.

Wewe unaishi dunia gani wewe? Mr. Knowledeable accountant.

According to Forbes Magazine, The new " Worlds Richest Man " is now Telecom Tycoon Carlos Slim Helu. At Beating out Bill Gates and Warren Buffet for the tile with a worth of 53.5 billion, up $18.5 billion in just 12 months. Carlos owns a $23 billion stake in America Movil, they went up, 35 percent in a year. The economic down turn last year made billions for billionaires who had a banner year.

Bill Gates is now second, worth $53 billion. His pockets are now $13 billion heavier from a year ago as shares of Microsoft rose 50 percent in 12 months. Warren Buffet, now a paltry third richest man in the world, increased by $10 billion to $47 billion because increased value in shares of Berkshire Hathaway.

Unajua mtu anapo "own stakes" katika a publicly traded company maana yake ni nini?

Unafahamu "They went up 35% last year" inamaanisha nini?

Hizo figure za underground economy hazipatikani kwa urahisi, simply because we are talking about the underground economy.OK, labda hawampiti Slim, lakini hiyo list ya top 100 haiwataji na ingewataja ingekuwa very different. Pablo Escobar alikuwa anagonga mpaka 4 billion USD. Na hiyo ni baada ya kugawa hela kama pipi Medellin.Mamia ya mamilioni ya dola za Kimarekani.

 

[Anfaal]

Its true niliover look aspect ya shares kutokana na mfululizo wa pesa/mali. Lakini bado haiwafanyi drug dealers kutop the list maana wao hata hizo pesa zao hazifluctuate. Their monies can be confisticated in a minutes. Illegal remains to be illegal. By the way thanks pia kwa discussion nadhani nahitaji kufanya vitu vingine sasa hivi

 

[Zungu Pule]

Nilitegemea msomaji awe familiaar na currency tunayoongelea kutoka post ya kwanza, kwa hiyo sikuona umuhimu wa kurudiarudia currency.Kama unataka kuleta ubishiubishi wa kutaka watu waandike kama wanaandika Ph.D thesis hapa sahau.You have to do the reading from the first post, if you do not I will consider you lazy.Kitu kikishakuwa initialized juu hakuna haja ya kukirudia rudia, hili wanalijua kuanzia computer programmers mpaka waandishi, shukuru hata miye ninayetumia maneno full, utakutana na millenial kids humu watakupiga na lugha ya tweets utashangaa mwenyewe.Hii ni internet forum, si Ph.D thesis presentation, get it straight.

Mara sikuelewa point, mara nimegusia point uliyoilenga, will you make up your mind?

Ukitaka kuleta detailed argument on GDP hapa nitakwambia any economic data about Tanzania is unreliable, kwa hiyo in short huwezi kufanya discussion.

Na hata hao mabilionea wakina Slim billions zao zina fluctuate kila siku, after all the bulk of that wealth is in stocks, and stocks go up and down every day, let alone on a yearly basis.

The point of these discussions ni kwamba tunapata a round figure ya kujua whereabout ya tulipo.Kwamba kama tuna official GDP ya $ 24 billion, hata ukiweka a margin of error ya 20% (very generous) ambayo itakupa GDP anywhere between $ 19 billion na $ 29 billion, halafu ukampa Slim mwenye net worth ya $ 53.5 billion a more conservative margin of error ya 10%, bado upper limit yake itakuwa about twice our upper limit.

I mean hata kama GDP yetu imekosewa kwa kiasi kikubwa sana, hatumfikii (in so far as a comparison between GDP and net worth can go, I know this was objected before, and I even raised the objection, but the point here is that we are mentioning national figures- albeit yearly ones- in the same breath as the net worth of one person) hata tukizidishiwa 40% tuseme kwamba informal sector yetu ina account another 40% ya pesa za slim (about 4/5 ya GDP yetu) ambayo haijahesabiwa, bado tutakuwa na GDP around 90% ya net worth ya Slim. It will take another 50% ya net worth ya Slim, a doubling of our GDP, ili tumfikie. I mean hata kama kuna makosa, makosa haya ku amount to a complete 100% of our GDP is a tall order.Labda unieleweshe vinginevyo.

Ukitaka kuleta academics hapa mimi naweza kukuambia hata huyo Slim mwenyewe si mtu tajiri kuliko wote, kuna mijibaba huko Colombia haiwezi hata kutaja mali zao kwa sababu zinahusika na mambo illegal.Kuna potential matatizo na kila kitu unachoweza kusema kuhusu hizi comparison.

If you really wanna go down to it watu wanaweza hata kuiquestion number theory na kumu invoke Karl Popper, wengine wakamquestion Euclid na kukwambia kwamba parallel lines ukizichora long enough zinakutana.

Kwa hiyo, kama Kenny Rogers alivyokwambia katika "The Gambler"


Meaning, you gotta know when to apply Newton's laws of Physics, and when to apply Einstein's relativistic ones.You do not want to use relativistic calculating horsepower for a problem that you can solve very well with Newtonian calculations.

Usitumie gobole, au hata sledgehammer kuua nzi.

There is such a thing as over-analysis. Usitumie mapendekezo hot off the press ya kina Stiglitz kufanya uchambuzi wa vitu vilivyo clearly miles apart.

Slim kuwa na net worth iliyo mara mbili ya GDP yetu ni a crying shame.Simple like that.

Ni kwanini unakuwa defensive kama unashindana? If you think you know everything and others know nothing, then make it clear. I mean I don't get it. Yaani unataka nikuamini wewe na kumdharau Stiglitz simply b'se unatuma posts nyingi sana hapa JF? Sijawahi kuona publication [peer reviewed] yako hata moja kuhusiana na ufahamu wako wa masuala haya. You are just as good as anybody. I may be wrong, you may be wrong. I may be right, you may be right. So, keep it friendly. You don't have to break the keyboard of your laptop to reply to my comments. My argument is GDP as it is being measured now is flawed. It's not good for anything. So, you should not use it for anything, not even to compare it with Mr. Slim's wealth.

 

[Kiranga]

Ni kwanini unakuwa defensive kama unashindana? If you think you know everything and others know nothing, then make it clear. I mean I don't get it. Yaani unataka nikuamini wewe na kumdharau Stiglitz simply b'se unatuma posts nyingi sana hapa JF? Sijawahi kuona publication [peer reviewed] yako hata moja kuhusiana na ufahamu wako wa masuala haya. You are just as good as anybody. I may be wrong, you may be wrong. I may be right, you may be right. So, keep it friendly. You don't have to break the keyboard of your laptop to reply to my comments. My argument is GDP as it is being measured now is flawed. It's not good for anything. So, you should not use it for anything, not even to compare it with Mr. Slim's wealth.

Sijawa defensive, nakuambia fact tu, kwamba ukitaka kuangalia deeper meaning ya GDP, utakuja kukuta kwamba GDP iko flawed, utaenda utakuta as such, kama unataka accuracy, Tanzania ni nchi ya "No data available" na huwezi kuwa na any kind of discussion kuhusu economic figures.

Kama unaendelea na spirit hiyo hiyo ya kutaka excessive preciceness, utakuta kila kitu kimeanzishwa na axioms, hata hao wanaosema parallel lines hazikutani kamwe wanasema hivyo kutokana na axiomatic constructs tu, hawajawahi kupima na kuona ukienda mpaka Andromeda Galaxy a couple of light years away parallel lines hazitakutana, hawajawahi kuhakikisha kwamba space itself is not curved positively au negatively kuifanya Euclidean geometry.Utaenda kukutana na wanafalsafa watakaombishia Descartes anaposema "I think, therefore I exist" na kumwambia you may think that you exist in the dream of some computer robot or some godhead's head, and you may actually not exist at all.

Si unataka excessive skepticism?

My point ni kwamba, hizi figures probably si accurate, lakini how likely are we to have a 50% error margin? Wewe unayependa kuja hapa na kuongea kuhusu peer reviewed papers unaweza kunionyesha paper inayosema GDP figures zina wonder off from the real economic picture by 50%?

Maana hata na mimi napata shule hapa, na najua kwamba GDP is not the best way to indicate these things.

When Sir Arthur Eddington, that revered British scientist, proposed that heavy atoms are made from the nuclear fusion in the centre of the stars, his opponents objected on the ground that the interior of stars were not hot enough to generate the required energy. Eddington asked them show me a hotter place, and they couldn't. Sir Eddington was vindicated when the technology allowed better testing. Admittedly accounting/ finance is not an exact/ natural science. Una debunk GDP, nionyeshe a true, tried and tested standard inayotumika badala ya GDP? Hata kama GDP ikiwa debunked, it will take some years before another standard is established, na in the interim tufanye nini? Tusitumie GDP kwa sababu ina walakini? Kwangu mimi naona kitu kizuri zaidi ni kutumia GDP, with the error in mind, accounting for it in the error margin. Ndiyo maana nikakupigia sommeraults za error margin hapo juu.

Hata ukipata an alternate way, the only thing that you are going to come up with genuinely is a lower figure.

 

[Zungu Pule]

Well, wanaposema uchumi wa Tanzania umekua kwa asilimia 7 kwa kipindi cha mwaka mmoja uliopita, what do they mean? Kwamba we are more better off this year than last year? Does that number say anything about people's welfare? What does that number tells you really? Na unatumia GDP estimates kufanya nini? To inform your policy process? What is it for? Research? For political gains? To fool yourself that you are doing a good job? That your growth is on the sustainable path? Even when you account for your 100% margin of error, does it make any difference?

 

[Kiranga]

Well, wanaposema uchumi wa Tanzania umekua kwa asilimia 7 kwa kipindi cha mwaka mmoja uliopita, what do they mean? Kwamba we are more better off this year than last year? Does that number say anything about people's welfare? What does that number tells you really? Na unatumia GDP estimates kufanya nini? To inform your policy process? What is it for? Research? For political gains? To fool yourself that you are doing a good job? That your growth is on the sustainable path? Even when you account for your 100% margin of error, does it make any difference?

Hahahaha, unachekesha sana.

Wanaposema uchumi umekua kwa asilimia 7 wana maana kwa kila vipimo mia vilivyokuwapo mwaka jana vipimo saba vimeongezeka katika uzalishaji na biashara.

We are better off this year than last year under ceteris paribus. And here is our bone of contention. There is a reason Economics is called a dismal science. You cannot simply cut Tanzania or Dar and isolate it under ceteris paribus so that you could get more accurate data, not in the way a proper scientist can isolate his experiment in a lab and simulate STP. So you pretty much have to live with ballmark figures, inherent unrealistic ceteris paribus and GDPs, unless you can show me that you are a cleverer chap with a better way to do it. You see, what you are raising as an objection to the concept of GDP, invoking the Stiglits of this world, I did in 1996 independently, so it is not that I am not aware about your concern and school of thought. I am on record on this forum saying that any Tanzanian economic figure is suspect, firstly because we are notoriously a country of "No Data Available" and even when data is available it is mostly from a government source.

So back to your question, an increase of 7% in the economy would mean we are better off this year than last year, under ceteris paribus. But ceteris paribus is a monkey on economists back because what if the population increases by 7% also, what would that mean? So we are running into an assesmnent issue, but knowing the 7% is still helpful because it is better than not knowing. Although our figures are plagued by a number of factors, we are in a position to guesstimate our economic growth. Now if after that there is a wealth distribution issue and the peasants do not get adequate social services, that is a totally different question. You will not be doing the dismal science justice by concluding that because Kikwete and his admin is not focused on distribution of this growth, then calculating the growth is futile.

Unatumia GDP to inform policy, kama benchmark, kujicompare na wengine (hata na Slim ukitaka, lol) and not necessarily to fool yourself that you are doing a good job (who told you that all GDP outcomes/ figures must be positively trended)

In our case even when we account for a 100% of error, it does not make any difference - in so far as comparing GDPs annd net worth can go- because we will still be under Slim's net worth. Which is the source of my outrage.

Now look, I am not saying that GDP has the famous Richard Feynman's relativistic accuracy, but your demand for accuracy is not satisfied even by Net National Product (because remember first of all any Tanzanian economic data is suspect). And I guarantee you come with any figure, GDP, NNP, the works, you are not going to get 53.5 billion USD. Which is the source of my outrage.

Now prove me wrong on that end, educate me.

BTW sijui unanielewa kwamba I do not have much stock in not only GDP, but also any economic figure za TZ, but they say when given lemons make lemonade, don't cry foul.

Ona mbabu anaichakaza GDP http://english.alrroya.com/content/how-reliable-gdp

Now raise the roof to 53.5 billion USD without actually selling Mt. Kilimanjaro, the great lakes or mto Rufiji.

 

[Nyamgluu]

Carlos Slim syas that "Bad governments worry about the rich, good governments worry about the poor".
Ninaendelea kuitafakari sana hii statement. By the look of things Jamii forums is 90% formed by people who would create a bad government.

 

[MtuKwao]

A Mexican richer than TZ, so what?

Watanzania, pamoja na kwamba kujipima ni muhimu, baada ya kujipima tusijidharau na kujikatisha tamaa!

 

[Kiranga]

Carlos Slim syas that "Bad governments worry about the rich, good governments worry about the poor".
Ninaendelea kuitafakari sana hii statement. By the look of things Jamii forums is 90% formed by people who would create a bad government.

If you equate the brouhaha about Carlos Slim to "worrying about the rich" you are grossly mistaken.

It is actually worrying about the poor, worrying about a country so poor that it's entire GDP is half of an individual's net worth. Complete with the footnotes on the difference between GDP and net worth, and the fallibility of GDP (Who is not fallible, even the Pontiff is susceptible to horrible harangues these days)

So if "worrying about the rich" is what prompted that unsubstantiated and unscientific 90% figure, you need to read the thread again, I hardly saw one post obsessing about Slim's riches per se, I mostly see people arguing on the state of the Tanzanian economy. Some with a pinch of punic patriotism more than other, to the extent of dismissing obvious truths, like we have a GDP under 53.5 billion US dollars.

So, at the risk of sounding boldly bloodthirsty in this almost diabolic diatribe, unless you just loved that quotable quote and wanted to throw it around out of context, and out of a sheer presumptuous proclivity to highfalutin' highhandedness and an unwarranted utopian sorry soliloquy of advanced and academic pugilistic pageantry, I cannot make head or tail of the dourly dilapidated nature of the kaleidoscopic labyrithian train of thought that disposed you to this unfounded unthruth.That we are worrying about the rich.

True a few of us are bound to be closet Marxist, still dusting their father's "Das Kapital" and reconciling Hegelian dialectics with "The Communist Manifesto". But really, 90% ? Who did that survey and what methodology was used? Which paper published that nonsense, and who peer reviewed that rubbish?

Do you want to actually do the math and count the posts down to a percentage? Accuracy is king, don't just throw around number like a Ngwini doing disservice to his community.

When you insult "by retail" 90% of the members of this esteemed forum, at least one of the discerning Dadaists is bound to put you to your rightful place.

With the full brunt of the blunt and wrath of the math.

Am I lying?