Mnaweza Kumkejeli Jamaa mleta Mada but he has a point:
1.With Raila and Ruto together there was no way Uhuru angekuwa rais,kosa alilofanya Raila ni kuruhusu Ruto aondoke matokeo yake akaondoka na kura zake.
2.Back to TZ: ACT/Zitto inaweza isifikishe idadi ya kura ambazo mleta mada ameitaja lakini ina uwezo wa kupata kiwango ambacho kwa namna yeyote ile kitakuwa na Significant effect kwa Ukawa.
3.Mbowe and Chadema: Sidhani kama Mbowe ni Chadema na Chadema ni Mbowe but Ukweli ni kuwa its very hard to challenge Mbowe katika ile Position labda siku atakayoamua yeye kutoka: Since 2009 It has failed to sink into my mind kwa nini Zitto alipotaka kugombea Uenyekiti wazee wa chama wakaamua kuifinyanga Demokrasia(kumbuka the 'de' in Chadema stands for demokrasia) na kumnyamazisha Zitto chini kwa chini kuwa amuache Mbowe apite Bila kupingwa.Kimsingi lile ndio lilikuwa kosa la Chadema mengine yote ni Yatokanayo.Ilikuwa ni busara kwa wazee kumuacha Mbowe kumshinda Zitto katika sanduku la kura kuliko kilichofanyika.
Kwanini kuna hii imani lakini? Kwamba kila anayekubaliana na zitto au kuwa mfuasi wa Zitto ni mtu wa Ccm?? Ccm hawahawa waliojeruhiwa na Zitto bungeni kwa miaka nenda rudi leo wawe na mahaba na Zitto??
Hamuamini kuwa wapo watu wanafikiri na kutenda tofauti na nyinyi??? Na bado hamuamini kuwa Chadema ilikuwa na wafuasi wengi nyuma ya mgongo wa Zitto?? Hamuamini ya kuwa kuna vijana wengi waliovutiwa na siasa kwa mgongo wa zitto na wengine leo hii ni wabunge na nafasi nyinginezo za kisiasa??? Hamuamini ya kuwa kwa kadri zitto anavyosurubiwa kwa kuitwa msaliti basi mashabiki na wafuasi wake wameamua kukaa kimya na mapenzi yao kifuani?? Mkiona kimya mwajua " mmemumaliza?"
ACT bado mnasafari ndefu sana kuitoa CCM madarakani, hiki chama kina MIZIZI MIZITO sio rahisi rahisi kukitoa madarakani, kina mambo mazito siku kikitoka madarakani na mungu aepushie mbali nchi hii haitakaa salama, labda niwaambie inaweza kutokea labda " WATANZANIA WALIMUONA MWALIMU NYERERE KWA MACHO WAISHE WOTE HUKU DUNIANI".
Freema Mbowe alitumiwa na mizizi mizito kuiua CUF mwaka 2000, akafanikiwa, Leo mtatumika nyinyi kuiua CHADEMA na hilo litafanikiwa , mjiandae kulikamilisha hilo kwa umakini mkubwa na endelevu.
CCM CCM haitakaa itoke madarakani hajazaliwa bado wa kuiangusha CCM, CHAMA CHA MAPINDUZI, chama imara nchini.
I have said before in 2013, and i repeat again, Zitto will be the kingmaker in 2015 election.
From my analysis: Zitto himself brought to chadema around 700,000 votes, and he has left with him around same number of votes: The regions that CHADEMA overwhelmingly won were the region Zitto campaigned heavily:
Mleta Mada natofautiana na kufanana na wewe hivi:
1.Sidhani kama ACT au Zitto kama ulivoamua kusema kwamba atashinda urais 2015,sijaona uhalisia hapa kwa sababu Zitto by any means hawezi kuwa amefikisha umri wa kugombania urais by October,Lakini pia kwa yeyote atakayegombea uchanga wa chama unahusika moja kwa moja kutokupata ushindi kwa ACT.Lakini Mtazamo wangu ni huu;
2.ACT inaweza kushinda uchaguzi 2020:
a)Kumbuka Chadema imepata Pigo kubwa sana kuondoka kwa Zitto(wapo watakaokataa lakini ni uhuru wao),hivyo Chadema kwa sasa inatumia mgongo wa UKAWA kuonekana kama bado iko strong as before.
b)Baada ya uchaguzi mkuu(ambao naipa CCM asilimia kubwa ya kushinda),hakutakuwa na kitu kinaitwa UKAWA nakuunga mkono kama ulivosema hata origination yake haikuwa kwa ajili ya uchaguzi bali katiba,kutokana na hilo Basi tutaruri kulekule kwenye vyama tofauti kama ilivyokuwa awali,thn hapo ndipo udhaifu wa Chadema utakapoanza kuonekana wazi(kumbuka Zitto alisema kuna wabunge Zaidi ya 10 kutoka Chadema watajiunga na ACT sidhani kama hakuna ukweli juu ya hili therefore Chadema itakuwa taaban na ACT itakuwa on the rise ukizingatia walivojipanga and without forgetting the 'Zitto factor'
3.Anayesema ACT bado sana sio mhalisia,kumbuka imewachukua Chadema only 5 years kutoka wabunge 4 hadi 46(sina uhakika sana na hiyo figure) so the same thing can happen to ACT.Kumbuka Tanzania kuna vyama vya siasa 22 lakini katika uchaguzi wa serikali za mitaa za mwaka huu overall results za NEC imeiweka ACT nafasi ya 5,hiyo ni kabla hata ya kuzinduliwa rasmi.
4.ACT inaonekana kuja kitofauti zaidi katika kutangaza sera zao na kuwafikia wananchi: Kumbuka tuko katika Internet and Social media awareness generation,Kwa haraka haraka tu toka uzinduzi wao nimegundua ACT wametambua umuhimu wa ICT and Social Media Platforms katika kujijenga.Kuna mchangiaji alisema "Kitaenda wapi chama cha Facebook hiki?",Hakika hajajua nguvu ya Facebook katika Prosperity sio tu ya Chama cha siasa lakini hata Kibiashara.Labda huenda anaitumia FB kwa ku-upload Photos only.Utafiti Rasmi ulionyesha kwamba kitu kimoja kilichochangia Barack Obama kushinda ni jinsi walivyojitangaza kupitia Social Media platforms Including Facebook na kuwafikia vijana wengi(Kumbuka Vijana wa sasa its all about Internet).
Kaka naomba nikuulize ,,Unaweza ukazitaja hizo region zako ambazo umesema Zitto campaigned heavily ,,,Swali la mwisho mkuu hivi kwanini sasa CCM walishinda uraisi kwenye jimbo lake ? ....Au hakufanya campaign nzito jimboni mwake ?
Kiukweli Zitto ni ushawishi lakini nadhani unapoanza kutoa hesabu zako kuonyesha ushawishi wake ,,ndipo unapoanza utata
Mleta Mada natofautiana na kufanana na wewe hivi:
1.Sidhani kama ACT au Zitto kama ulivoamua kusema kwamba atashinda urais 2015,sijaona uhalisia hapa kwa sababu Zitto by any means hawezi kuwa amefikisha umri wa kugombania urais by October,Lakini pia kwa yeyote atakayegombea uchanga wa chama unahusika moja kwa moja kutokupata ushindi kwa ACT.Lakini Mtazamo wangu ni huu;
2.ACT inaweza kushinda uchaguzi 2020:
a)Kumbuka Chadema imepata Pigo kubwa sana kuondoka kwa Zitto(wapo watakaokataa lakini ni uhuru wao),hivyo Chadema kwa sasa inatumia mgongo wa UKAWA kuonekana kama bado iko strong as before.
b)Baada ya uchaguzi mkuu(ambao naipa CCM asilimia kubwa ya kushinda),hakutakuwa na kitu kinaitwa UKAWA nakuunga mkono kama ulivosema hata origination yake haikuwa kwa ajili ya uchaguzi bali katiba,kutokana na hilo Basi tutaruri kulekule kwenye vyama tofauti kama ilivyokuwa awali,thn hapo ndipo udhaifu wa Chadema utakapoanza kuonekana wazi(kumbuka Zitto alisema kuna wabunge Zaidi ya 10 kutoka Chadema watajiunga na ACT sidhani kama hakuna ukweli juu ya hili therefore Chadema itakuwa taaban na ACT itakuwa on the rise ukizingatia walivojipanga and without forgetting the 'Zitto factor'
3.Anayesema ACT bado sana sio mhalisia,kumbuka imewachukua Chadema only 5 years kutoka wabunge 4 hadi 46(sina uhakika sana na hiyo figure) so the same thing can happen to ACT.Kumbuka Tanzania kuna vyama vya siasa 22 lakini katika uchaguzi wa serikali za mitaa za mwaka huu overall results za NEC imeiweka ACT nafasi ya 5,hiyo ni kabla hata ya kuzinduliwa rasmi.
4.ACT inaonekana kuja kitofauti zaidi katika kutangaza sera zao na kuwafikia wananchi: Kumbuka tuko katika Internet and Social media awareness generation,Kwa haraka haraka tu toka uzinduzi wao nimegundua ACT wametambua umuhimu wa ICT and Social Media Platforms katika kujijenga.Kuna mchangiaji alisema "Kitaenda wapi chama cha Facebook hiki?",Hakika hajajua nguvu ya Facebook katika Prosperity sio tu ya Chama cha siasa lakini hata Kibiashara.Labda huenda anaitumia FB kwa ku-upload Photos only.Utafiti Rasmi ulionyesha kwamba kitu kimoja kilichochangia Barack Obama kushinda ni jinsi walivyojitangaza kupitia Social Media platforms Including Facebook na kuwafikia vijana wengi(Kumbuka Vijana wa sasa its all about Internet).
I have said before in 2013, and i repeat again, Zitto will be the kingmaker in 2015 election.
Nothing is new in East africa politics, Ruto did it in Kenya, Bwana Zitto will do the same. I find quite many similarities among these two gentlemen, both shrewd politicians rising up from the common mwananchi family.
As for Ruto, he is a student of Moi and Baba Raila, he has shown times and times that he is not afraid to go against his masters.
Bwana Zitto is a student of Mbowe and mentored by Salim, well, he has shown since 2009 that he is willing and able to challenge his tutor.
After the 2007 election in Kenya, Bwana Uhuru sat down and calculated why he lost. The reason was RUTO. He swang away the important votes and gave Kibaki a thin win.
Uhuru learnt his lesson: The tyranny of numbers. He needed Ruto to add up his numbers and win the election, and so had Ruto on board and won the election.
UKAWA needed Zitto on board in order to give CCM a real test for the top job. Whomever UKAWA could have decided to put up as it's presidential candidate( Lipumba or Slaa), Zitto could have been the running mate. Simply because the man has 2 million voters or more in his pocket. Its nature of African voters to follow a person rather than policies.
Lets look at 2010 election numbers:
Total votes: 8,626,283
CCM:
5,276,827
CHADEMA: 2,271,491
Others: 900,000
From my analysis: Zitto himself brought to chadema around 700,000 votes, and he has left with him around same number of votes: The regions that CHADEMA overwhelmingly won were the region Zitto campaigned heavily: With the new voters registration, UKAWA should focus on gaining new voters, CCM has almost 4 million permanent voters. CHADEMA has almost 1.5 million permanent voters.
CUF and other UKAWA members have very little contribution when it comes to presidential votes, Lipumba has never gained any popularity for all those elections, its better for UKAWA to have Zitto and Mbatia on board rather than Lipumba if they want to fight for the top job: Apart from Zanzibar; CHADEMA is carrying too much burden from UKAWA.
If CHADEMA wanted to win,(Slaa&Zitto) they could have made more than 4 million votes it takes to take out CCM: Slaa has his own 0.5 million votes, Zitto has his own 1.5 votes, Chadema has around 2 million votes, if the focus could have been to get new voters around 1 million, surely CCM with or without Lowassa could have struggled in the coming election.
My estimates for the coming election: From 9 million voters
CCM: around 5 million
CHADEMA\Ukawa: around 2.5 million
Zitto\ACT: around 1.5.million
This is only my analysis: Nina haki ya kufikiria nitakavyo: I have no political party or affiliation na yeyote:
Weka inputs zako kiustaarabu; I am a member here since 2007: