Why UKAWA will loose the 2015 Election

[Independent-Mind]

Hamna kitu hapo,hata mbumbumbu wa mwisho darasani atagundua emptiness katika analysis ya jamaa.hivi hiyo idadi ya wafuasi milioni 1.5 ya Zitto aliipata wapi?atupe source ya hiyo data zake.
Pia amechemsha kulinganisha siasa za Kenya na za Tanzania, zipo tofauti kabisa.turufu pekee ya Zitto ni kwa Waislamu lakini pia hana lake kwasababu hana historia ya kuwapigania Waislamu.Vijana nao hawana imani sana na Zitto, walimkubali kipindi kile,now it's no more.

Kutokana na maelezo yako nimeshapata jibu wewe ni Pro-Chadema,kwani ni kawaida yenu kukimbilia udini,ukabila etc No wonder ndio mana watu wanahusisha Chadema na ukristo kwa sababu ya watu kama nyinyi.Zitto na kura za waislam?? kweli?? is this the best you can come up with??

 

[PLEASE]

Sio mwanachama wa chama chochote:

basi hukutakiwa kusema ndugu zangu chadema mtu usio na chama, the problem unatoka unaingia

 

[Simple]

basi hukutakiwa kusema ndugu zangu chadema mtu usio na chama, the problem unatoka unaingia

watanzania wote ni ndugu zangu, siangalii itakadi wewe kuwa ndugu yangu. Kama ni mtanzania inatosha kuwa ndugu yangu

 

[ruhi]

Unachosha sana watu, wewe ni mbishi asiyetaka kujifunza bali unataka watu wakubali yako tu.

 

[Chidudule]

I have said before in 2013, and i repeat again, Zitto will be the kingmaker in 2015 election.

Nothing is new in East africa politics, Ruto did it in Kenya, Bwana Zitto will do the same. I find quite many similarities among these two gentlemen, both shrewd politicians rising up from the common mwananchi family.

As for Ruto, he is a student of Moi and Baba Raila, he has shown times and times that he is not afraid to go against his masters.

Bwana Zitto is a student of Mbowe and mentored by Salim, well, he has shown since 2009 that he is willing and able to challenge his tutor.

After the 2007 election in Kenya, Bwana Uhuru sat down and calculated why he lost. The reason was RUTO. He swang away the important votes and gave Kibaki a thin win.

Uhuru learnt his lesson: The tyranny of numbers. He needed Ruto to add up his numbers and win the election, and so had Ruto on board and won the election.

UKAWA needed Zitto on board in order to give CCM a real test for the top job. Whomever UKAWA could have decided to put up as it's presidential candidate( Lipumba or Slaa), Zitto could have been the running mate. Simply because the man has 2 million voters or more in his pocket. Its nature of African voters to follow a person rather than policies.

Lets look at 2010 election numbers:

Total votes: 8,626,283
CCM:

5,276,827
CHADEMA: 2,271,491
Others: 900,000

From my analysis: Zitto himself brought to chadema around 700,000 votes, and he has left with him around same number of votes: The regions that CHADEMA overwhelmingly won were the region Zitto campaigned heavily: With the new voters registration, UKAWA should focus on gaining new voters, CCM has almost 4 million permanent voters. CHADEMA has almost 1.5 million permanent voters.

CUF and other UKAWA members have very little contribution when it comes to presidential votes, Lipumba has never gained any popularity for all those elections, its better for UKAWA to have Zitto and Mbatia on board rather than Lipumba if they want to fight for the top job: Apart from Zanzibar; CHADEMA is carrying too much burden from UKAWA.

If CHADEMA wanted to win,(Slaa&Zitto) they could have made more than 4 million votes it takes to take out CCM: Slaa has his own 0.5 million votes, Zitto has his own 1.5 votes, Chadema has around 2 million votes, if the focus could have been to get new voters around 1 million, surely CCM with or without Lowassa could have struggled in the coming election.

My estimates for the coming election: From 9 million voters

CCM: around 5 million
CHADEMA\Ukawa: around 2.5 million
Zitto\ACT: around 1.5.million

This is only my analysis: Nina haki ya kufikiria nitakavyo: I have no political party or affiliation na yeyote:
Weka inputs zako kiustaarabu; I am a member here since 2007:

2010,kura za Slaa hazikutokana na Zitto kuwepo Kigoma au umaarufu wake. Dr Slaa alikuwa na umaarufu kuliko Zitto,na kura za Kigoma hazikutoka jimbo la Zitto pekee ila hata majimbo mengine. Dr Slaa alikuwa maarufu kuliko Zitto na ndiyo maana watu walipata hamasa kuongeza wabunge ni kwasababu ya Slaa. Ni mwaka ambao jeshi kwa mara ya kwanza lilitoa tamko kuhusu uchaguzi Mnadhimu akiwa Lt Jenerali Shimbo. Hii yote ni kwa ajili ya Slaa. Watu wa Kigoma walimpa Slaa kura kwa mapenzi yao kwa Slaa na Zitto. Huyo Zitto mwenyewe kama ccm wangempigia mgombea wao kampeni asingepita kwani ukiangalia kura zake hakushinda kwa kishindo ingawa ccm walimwachia. Ndiyo baada ya matokeo alikiri kuwa udini ulipunguza kura zake na ndiyo maana anakimbia jimbo mapema aende mjini kwenye waislamu wengi. Kama ni maarufu mshauri agombee tena Kigoma kaskazini uonr atakachoambulia.

 

[Simple]

Kutokana na maelezo yako nimeshapata jibu wewe ni Pro-Chadema,kwani ni kawaida yenu kukimbilia udini,ukabila etc No wonder ndio mana watu wanahusisha Chadema na ukristo kwa sababu ya watu kama nyinyi.Zitto na kura za waislam?? kweli?? is this the best you can come up with??

Ndugu,

Mifanano ipo, na inaweza kuwepo, sisi pia tunatafuta katiba mpya kama wenzetu walivyofanya. Utafutaji huo huweza kubadilisha mifumo ya kisiasa, ilitokea Kenya na Ruto alikuwa muhimu kwenye kumchagua raisi, nilichojaribu kusema ni kwamba ndugu Zitto atapiga uRuto kwenye chaguzi zijazo.
UKAWA haikowepo kabla ya bunge la katiba; Miuongano na mifumo mipya hainishangazii hata kidogo kwenye uandishi wa katiba mpya.
Hoja ya udini kwa kweli sijachunguza vya kutosha kuweza kuchambua itakavyoyumbisha chaguzi zijazo.
Jaribu kujadili kwa hoja na mifano ili tuelewe sote, jazba haisaidii mkuu

 

[Mtumishi Wetu]

Simple furaha ya MaCCM ni UKAWA KUSHINDWA!!
Kumbuka ZZK hana wala hakuwa na msaada wowote Kwa ushindi wa UKAWA!!
Mfadhiri wa ACT ni TISS ili kuibomoa CDM,
Tumeona Uchaguzi wa Serikali za mitaa, hao ni MaCCM B!!

 

[PLEASE]

watanzania wote ni ndugu zangu, siangalii itakadi wewe kuwa ndugu yangu. Kama ni mtanzania inatosha kuwa ndugu yangu

acha kupotosha kwa context unayoongea huwezi sema ndugu hata kama wote ni watanzania

 

[Mfikirishi]

Am so astonished with such kind of poor analysis..... It sounds crazy comparing Kenyan politics with our own...

I thank you for the courage of posting your thread. But for your information Zitto is totally nothing in our politics....
He is very much closer to his political death!!

Only the clueless people out there will support your inferior theory!!




KAKA JP OMUGA,kwenye hiyo Red jaribu kuwa mhalisia kidogo usilete unazi katika vitu vya msingi.Only a fool will underestimate Zitto in Tanzanian Politics

You go ahead and support that politically mutant being. But with me I might only support another Zitto not the disturbed Zitto Zuber Kabwe that I now know better!!

 

[Simple]

unachosha sana watu, wewe ni mbishi asiyetaka kujifunza bali unataka watu wakubali yako tu.

pumzika kidogo halafu rudi jf upate raha duniani

 

[PLEASE]

2010,kura za Slaa hazikutokana na Zitto kuwepo Kigoma au umaarufu wake. Dr Slaa alikuwa na umaarufu kuliko Zitto,na kura za Kigoma hazikutoka jimbo la Zitto pekee ila hata majimbo mengine. Dr Slaa alikuwa maarufu kuliko Zitto na ndiyo maana watu walipata hamasa kuongeza wabunge ni kwasababu ya Slaa. Ni mwaka ambao jeshi kwa mara ya kwanza lilitoa tamko kuhusu uchaguzi Mnadhimu akiwa Lt Jenerali Shimbo. Hii yote ni kwa ajili ya Slaa. Watu wa Kigoma walimpa Slaa kura kwa mapenzi yao kwa Slaa na Zitto. Huyo Zitto mwenyewe kama ccm wangempigia mgombea wao kampeni asingepita kwani ukiangalia kura zake hakushinda kwa kishindo ingawa ccm walimwachia. Ndiyo baada ya matokeo alikiri kuwa udini ulipunguza kura zake na ndiyo maana anakimbia jimbo mapema aende mjini kwenye waislamu wengi. Kama ni maarufu mshauri agombee tena Kigoma kaskazini uonr atakachoambulia.

tatizo mshikaji Simple hajibu hoja kama hizi, kuna mtu kumuuliza humu anafahamu historia ya ODM hadi akaibeza UKAWA eti lengo lake lilikuwa katiba tu na sio uchaguzi, namaliza post zote sijaona jibu

 

[Tindo]

Kawe,Ubungo,Iringa mjini,Rukwa na mengineyo

Umeshiba propaganda mfu, yeye ana faida gani kwao, maana kwao hajapata uungwaji mkono kwanini mshibe imani ya kwamba ndio alisaidia majimbo ya wenzake? Nyinyi kwa kiwango kikubwa hii michango yenu ndio ilimfanya Zitto ahakikishe anaivuruga cdm bila kujali ili mradi apate madaraka ya juu. Hilo limekuwa wazi kwa chama.chake kipya. Sina tatizo na Zitto kuhamia chama.kingine kwani ni haki yake na ni ukweli usiopingika ana uwezo mzuri kiuchumi, lakini nilochogundua ana udhaifu wa kuzira kutoa ushirikiano iwapo anakosa madaraka ya juu. Udhaifu wa aina hii pia ninauona kwa wabunge wengi waliokuwa,mawaziri, pindi walivuliwa uwaziri wao hata utendaji wao na uwakilishi wao wa kibunge ulishuka. Sasa mtu kama huyo unategemea angekuwa na matokeo mazuri uchaguzi huu kama tayari moral ya ushindi imeshuka.

Kwa hali ilivyo nguvu waliyonayo cdm imekuwa kubwa kutokana na wao kuzunguka.nchi nzima kufanya kazi ya kueneza chama toka 2010. Hebu nitajie toka mwaka 2010 Zitto amekwenda mara ngapi kwenye mikutano ya kujenga chama.yenye tija zaidi ya ugomvi kuwa ndio sifa yake kubwa kwa miaka hii 5? Usilazamishe kukubalika kwa Zitto kwa hisia za kiccm na kipropaganda wakati in real sense sio sehemu ya nguvu ya chama iliyopatikana miaka hii 5 iliyopita baada ya uchaguzi. Ila kama yeye Zitto ataendesha siasa za majitaka atafanikiwa kupunguza kura za ukawa kwenye uchaguzi mkuu kwani mafisadi wataendesha siasa chafu kupitia media, ukichanganya na tume kutokuwa huru, jeshi la polisi linalofanya kazi kwa mazoea kwamba lazima ccm ishinde kwani wote wanalindana kwenye wizi ndio litakalofanya ccm ishinde tena kwa tabu na sio hilo la Zitto kuondoka kama mnavyolazimisha hapa.

 

[radika]

Mleta Mada natofautiana na kufanana na wewe hivi:
1.Sidhani kama ACT au Zitto kama ulivoamua kusema kwamba atashinda urais 2015,sijaona uhalisia hapa kwa sababu Zitto by any means hawezi kuwa amefikisha umri wa kugombania urais by October,Lakini pia kwa yeyote atakayegombea uchanga wa chama unahusika moja kwa moja kutokupata ushindi kwa ACT.Lakini Mtazamo wangu ni huu;
2.ACT inaweza kushinda uchaguzi 2020:
a)Kumbuka Chadema imepata Pigo kubwa sana kuondoka kwa Zitto(wapo watakaokataa lakini ni uhuru wao),hivyo Chadema kwa sasa inatumia mgongo wa UKAWA kuonekana kama bado iko strong as before.
b)Baada ya uchaguzi mkuu(ambao naipa CCM asilimia kubwa ya kushinda),hakutakuwa na kitu kinaitwa UKAWA nakuunga mkono kama ulivosema hata origination yake haikuwa kwa ajili ya uchaguzi bali katiba,kutokana na hilo Basi tutaruri kulekule kwenye vyama tofauti kama ilivyokuwa awali,thn hapo ndipo udhaifu wa Chadema utakapoanza kuonekana wazi(kumbuka Zitto alisema kuna wabunge Zaidi ya 10 kutoka Chadema watajiunga na ACT sidhani kama hakuna ukweli juu ya hili therefore Chadema itakuwa taaban na ACT itakuwa on the rise ukizingatia walivojipanga and without forgetting the 'Zitto factor'
3.Anayesema ACT bado sana sio mhalisia,kumbuka imewachukua Chadema only 5 years kutoka wabunge 4 hadi 46(sina uhakika sana na hiyo figure) so the same thing can happen to ACT.Kumbuka Tanzania kuna vyama vya siasa 22 lakini katika uchaguzi wa serikali za mitaa za mwaka huu overall results za NEC imeiweka ACT nafasi ya 5,hiyo ni kabla hata ya kuzinduliwa rasmi.
4.ACT inaonekana kuja kitofauti zaidi katika kutangaza sera zao na kuwafikia wananchi: Kumbuka tuko katika Internet and Social media awareness generation,Kwa haraka haraka tu toka uzinduzi wao nimegundua ACT wametambua umuhimu wa ICT and Social Media Platforms katika kujijenga.Kuna mchangiaji alisema "Kitaenda wapi chama cha Facebook hiki?",Hakika hajajua nguvu ya Facebook katika Prosperity sio tu ya Chama cha siasa lakini hata Kibiashara.Labda huenda anaitumia FB kwa ku-upload Photos only.Utafiti Rasmi ulionyesha kwamba kitu kimoja kilichochangia Barack Obama kushinda ni jinsi walivyojitangaza kupitia Social Media platforms Including Facebook na kuwafikia vijana wengi(Kumbuka Vijana wa sasa its all about Internet).

Zitto kawaambia wabunge 10 toka chadema wataenda ACT we noma sana mkuu

 

[Simple]

Simple furaha ya MaCCM ni UKAWA KUSHINDWA!!
Kumbuka ZZK hana wala hakuwa na msaada wowote Kwa ushindi wa UKAWA!!
Mfadhiri wa ACT ni TISS ili kuibomoa CDM,
Tumeona Uchaguzi wa Serikali za mitaa, hao ni MaCCM B!!

Ningependa kuiona Tanzania inayoongozwa na watu wengine, sio viongozi wa sasa. UKAWA haikuundwa kwa ajili ya kuiondoa CCM madarakani, iliundwa ili kupingwa katiba inayopendekezwa: Sasa ni wakati mzuri kwa wao kubadili mbinu na miongozo ya umoja wao ili kuchukua uongozi wa nchi. Nionavyo mimi, mpaka sasa hawajajipanga vya kutosha, kuviongoza hivi vichwa( Mbowe, Mbatia,Lipumba,Slaa) kupata kuafikiana KIUCHAGUZI si lelema, INAWEZEKANA iwapo;
- Viongozi hao niliowataja wataacha TAMAA za madaraka na rasilimali.( Kusimamisha mgombea uraisi uleta ruzuku kubwa)
-Watanitajifunza kutoka miungano yao iliyopita na mingine ya nchi za jirani
-watatengeneza mkakati madhubuti wa kuchukua dola
-wajivue dhambi ya kumyanyapaa ndugu Zitto

 

[Tindo]

Lipumba hana mvuto wa kisiasa. Ameshagombea miaka yote hiyo na hakuna lolote. Halafu ilishasemwa kwamba cuf ni ccm b. Sasa nisichoelewa hata mimi ni kwanini cuf wamegeuka wasafi sasa hivi mbele ya macho ya chadema.[/QUOTE

Acha kubeza kwa mazingira yalivyo inawezekana kwani wamejoin forces ukichangany na kile chama chetu kichovu kiko kwenye hali mbaya sana, ile mitaji yake ya udini imeisha kwani huko kwenye dini wamelikoroga, huku kwenye katiba ndio wameweka sumu kwenye maji ya kijiji, achia mbali uwizi kama escrow nk. Hapa ukichanganya na uelewa wa wananchi kuhusu nchi yao, nadhani ile alarm ya serekali za mitaa uliiona. Sasa hebu wewe mwenyewe changanya hayo mazingira hapo juu halafu huku Ukawa/Mbatia vs EL. Hapo hata Zitto atumike kupunguza kura za Ukawa nadhani mechi inaisha kipindi cha kwanza. Kumbuka huko ccm nyumba imefitinika, hayo makindi ya urais ni ya wazalendo na mamafia, hapo vipande lazima.

Ila.angalizo ninakupa kwa hapa tulipofikia ccm wakishindwa kukubali maamuzi ya wananchi, nchi hii itaingia kwenye tafrani ya hapa na pale ila tuepushie mbali na machafuko. Kile walichokuwa wanakifanya.ccm kwenye uchaguzi s/m safari watu wako tayari. Hapo sio Zitto yuko cdm/ukawa ama Act au amehamia ccm lazima patawaka.

 

[The Name]

mtoa mada kwanza kabisa hujiamini na hiyo ni factor mojawapo ya kushindwa kwako. poor analysis

 

[John Kachembeho]

Haya bwana kwahiyo hao wengine wa chadema ikiwemo Slaa mwenyewe hakufanya campaign huko? Halafu bado haujajibu swali langu kwanini kwenye jimbo lake la zamani (Kigoma Kaskazini) Chadema walishindwa uraisi ? au ndio hakufanya campaign huko

Kabla ya uchaguzi ule Zitto alikuwa amedeclare kuwa tangu nchi kupata uhuru serikali haikuwahi kuisaidia kigoma kaskazini na kihoma yote kwa ujumla kama serikali ya kikwete. Ilikuwa either awe mkweli au afanye unafiki wa kisiasa, ile kuponda tu hadi kieleweke.

 

[Tindo]

Ningependa kuiona Tanzania inayoongozwa na watu wengine, sio viongozi wa sasa. UKAWA haikuundwa kwa ajili ya kuiondoa CCM madarakani, iliundwa ili kupingwa katiba inayopendekezwa: Sasa ni wakati mzuri kwa wao kubadili mbinu na miongozo ya umoja wao ili kuchukua uongozi wa nchi. Nionavyo mimi, mpaka sasa hawajajipanga vya kutosha, kuviongoza hivi vichwa( Mbowe, Mbatia,Lipumba,Slaa) kupata kuafikiana KIUCHAGUZI si lelema, INAWEZEKANA iwapo;
- Viongozi hao niliowataja wataacha TAMAA za madaraka na rasilimali.( Kusimamisha mgombea uraisi uleta ruzuku kubwa)
-Watanitajifunza kutoka miungano yao iliyopita na mingine ya nchi za jirani
-watatengeneza mkakati madhubuti wa kuchukua dola
-wajivue dhambi ya kumyanyapaa ndugu Zitto

Hii mada imekuwa kama umetaka kumjenga Zitto ila ni kama umesababisha watu waanike udhaifu wake na kwenda mbele zaidi kwa kumdhihaki. Unawataja viongozi wa ukawa kwamba hawawezi kuelewana kwani wanapenda sana madaraka tena cdm wamemuonea sana Zitto!! Hivi uko serious,? Unawaona hawa wengine wanapenda sana.madaraka, umesahau kilichomfikisha hapo Zitto alipo keo ni ugomvi wa kupenda sana madaraka? Kama sio na yeye kupenda madaraka imekuwaje ajiunge na kipya tena.chinj ya siku 7 yeye ndio mkuu wa chama tena kwa cheo ambacho sio cha utaritibu uliozoeleka. Sina tatizo na hicho cheo kwani ndio ubunifu wenyewe lakink kweli mwanachama wa wiki moja kweli? Hivi hicho chama muda wote kilikuwa kinaongozwa na vibuyu ama? Hivi kuna uwezekano wa mtu kwenda ccm/cuf/nccr au hata chausta na wiki hiyohiyo kuwa mkuu wa chama.

Nakushauri kama umeamua kujitoa ufahamu na kuamua kumtetea Zitto kwa aina hii naona kama unamuanika tu hapa. Achana na hizo post zinazokudhalilisha na kumdhalilisha tu Zitto.

 

[Kibanga Ampiga Mkoloni]

From my analysis: Zitto himself brought to chadema around 700,000 votes, and he has left with him around same number of votes: The regions that CHADEMA overwhelmingly won were the region Zitto campaigned heavily: With the new voters registration, UKAWA should focus on gaining new voters, CCM has almost 4 million permanent voters. CHADEMA has almost 1.5 million permanent voters.

:

Mkuu tunaweza kuanza kwanza na Kura alizopata yeye Jimboni kwake?
vipi walizopata CHADEMA jimboni kwake unakumbuka ni ngapi?

 

[ruhi]

Mkuu tunaweza kuanza kwanza na Kura alizopata yeye Jimboni kwake?
vipi walizopata CHADEMA jimboni kwake unakumbuka ni ngapi?

Nakwambia jamaa ameamua kuchosha tu watu, hana data wala nini ni mahaba niue kwa Zitto wa Kabwe tu.