Why UKAWA will loose the 2015 Election

[Tindo]

Ndugu Tindo,

By elections sio sawa na Main election: Kwenye chaguzi ndongondogo, Chama kinapata muda na nafasi ya kutosha kumchagua mgombea anayefaa: Kwenye uchaguzi mkuu,,Chama kinahitaji kujichanua nchi nzima kupata wagombea wanaostahili; hivyo basi siwezi kutumia chaguzi ndogo kama sababu ya kufanya uchambuzi wangu:

Ukawa watashindwa kwa sababu hizi:
- zitto
-kutokupata wapiga kura wapya🙁new voters)
-Tamaa za viongozi wa Ukawa

UKAWA hawatashindwa sababu ya CCM:

Naona kama naongea na mtabiri wa nyota. Wewe umejuaje kwamba Ukawa hatapata wagombea wapya? Na ni nani aliyekuambia kwaba Zitto na mtambo wa kuzalisha wapiga kura wapya. Inaonekana propaganda imekujaa mpaka machoni na hivyo unatumia njia za hisia kuliko uhalisia.

 

[Mahweso]

Hahahahhaaaaaaaaa, eti ukawa bila Zitto haitashinda, kwahiyo unataka aingie Ukawa ili aaanze kuwapa siri za Ukawa? Imekula kwenu, halibebeki hilo zigo.

 

[kabangila]

Ndugu Tindo,

By elections sio sawa na Main election: Kwenye chaguzi ndongondogo, Chama kinapata muda na nafasi ya kutosha kumchagua mgombea anayefaa: Kwenye uchaguzi mkuu,,Chama kinahitaji kujichanua nchi nzima kupata wagombea wanaostahili; hivyo basi siwezi kutumia chaguzi ndogo kama sababu ya kufanya uchambuzi wangu:

Ukawa watashindwa kwa sababu hizi:
- zitto
-kutokupata wapiga kura wapya🙁new voters)
-Tamaa za viongozi wa Ukawa

UKAWA hawatashindwa sababu ya CCM:

Kweli wewe ni simple, unakataa chaguzi za serikali kama sio factor? Wakati hii ndio working force ya GE? Halafu unasema UKAWA haina wapiga kura wapya? Kwa kigezo kipi? Serikali za mitaa ya 2009 na ya 2014 ikoje? Waliopigia kura UKAWA sio wapya? Na tamaa za viongozi wa UKAWA zinahusiana vipi na uchaguzi? Kama hamuna critical analysis bora mkae kimya.

 

[Simple]

Kweli wewe ni simple, unakataa chaguzi za serikali kama sio factor? Wakati hii ndio working force ya GE? Halafu unasema UKAWA haina wapiga kura wapya? Kwa kigezo kipi? Serikali za mitaa ya 2009 na ya 2014 ikoje? Waliopigia kura UKAWA sio wapya? Na tamaa za viongozi wa UKAWA zinahusiana vipi na uchaguzi? Kama hamuna critical analysis bora mkae kimya.

UKAWA SIO CHAMA CHA SIASA: ( Umoja wa KAtiba ya Wananchi),,lengo lao ni kupinga katiba pendekezwa,,sio kumtoa CCM madarakani:

RUZUKU za kampeni siku zote uleta matatizo kwenye Upinzani Tanzania. Hizo ndo tamaa ninazozizungumzia mimi.

 

[Zanzibar-ASP]

I have doubts with point number 2 and 3.
Its impossible to challenge Mbowe at Chadema, nobody will dare to do it,,not Lissu not Mnyika. They have seen and learnt what happens when you do it: Lets be honest there:Chadema is Mbowe and Mbowe is Chadema,period:

Popularity of Chadema in Kigoma has been after their people.( Kaborou and Zitto). You can see already why ACT is gaining popularity there,,sababu they support their own.

Follow closely political history of Ruto and that of Zitto, similarities are clearly there🙁 Political Confidence)

Simple It is too low. The biggest problem you have, is to believe in Zitto only.
Political populality of Zitto continued to go down as far as Zitto dissociated from CHADEMA. CHADEMA now is the Best political platform in Tanzania mainland as the same as CUF in Zanzibar. Even Zitto knew that.

Zitto is nothing to UKAWA thus why UKAWA doesnot pay any political attention to him. In short Zitto has lost the regitimacy before the General Election, he doesnot sure which constituency he will win when he will compete in this year General election. He desperates.

 

[TEKNOLOJIA]

I have said before in 2013, and i repeat again, Zitto will be the kingmaker in 2015 election.

Nothing is new in East africa politics, Ruto did it in Kenya, Bwana Zitto will do the same. I find quite many similarities among these two gentlemen, both shrewd politicians rising up from the common mwananchi family.

As for Ruto, he is a student of Moi and Baba Raila, he has shown times and times that he is not afraid to go against his masters.

Bwana Zitto is a student of Mbowe and mentored by Salim, well, he has shown since 2009 that he is willing and able to challenge his tutor.

After the 2007 election in Kenya, Bwana Uhuru sat down and calculated why he lost. The reason was RUTO. He swang away the important votes and gave Kibaki a thin win.

Uhuru learnt his lesson: The tyranny of numbers. He needed Ruto to add up his numbers and win the election, and so had Ruto on board and won the election.

UKAWA needed Zitto on board in order to give CCM a real test for the top job. Whomever UKAWA could have decided to put up as it's presidential candidate( Lipumba or Slaa), Zitto could have been the running mate. Simply because the man has 2 million voters or more in his pocket. Its nature of African voters to follow a person rather than policies.

Lets look at 2010 election numbers:

Total votes: 8,626,283
CCM:

5,276,827
CHADEMA: 2,271,491
Others: 900,000

From my analysis: Zitto himself brought to chadema around 700,000 votes, and he has left with him around same number of votes: The regions that CHADEMA overwhelmingly won were the region Zitto campaigned heavily: With the new voters registration, UKAWA should focus on gaining new voters, CCM has almost 4 million permanent voters. CHADEMA has almost 1.5 million permanent voters.

CUF and other UKAWA members have very little contribution when it comes to presidential votes, Lipumba has never gained any popularity for all those elections, its better for UKAWA to have Zitto and Mbatia on board rather than Lipumba if they want to fight for the top job: Apart from Zanzibar; CHADEMA is carrying too much burden from UKAWA.

If CHADEMA wanted to win,(Slaa&Zitto) they could have made more than 4 million votes it takes to take out CCM: Slaa has his own 0.5 million votes, Zitto has his own 1.5 votes, Chadema has around 2 million votes, if the focus could have been to get new voters around 1 million, surely CCM with or without Lowassa could have struggled in the coming election.

My estimates for the coming election: From 9 million voters

CCM: around 5 million
CHADEMA\Ukawa: around 2.5 million
Zitto\ACT: around 1.5.million

This is only my analysis: Nina haki ya kufikiria nitakavyo: I have no political party or affiliation na yeyote:
Weka inputs zako kiustaarabu; I am a member here since 2007:

You must be naive enough to compare Kenya's political environment to Tanzania's one. Kenya's politics is inherently based on tribalism and regionalism,that's where Ruto's political force originated, Zitto?I can't say the same about him.

 

[UKAWA2]

Your so simple,your analysis is so simple as your ID

 

[Simple]

Simple It is too low. The biggest problem you have, is to believe in Zitto only.
Political populality of Zitto continued to go down as far as Zitto dissociated from CHADEMA. CHADEMA now is the Best political platform in Tanzania mainland as the same as CUF in Zanzibar. Even Zitto knew that.

Zitto is nothing to UKAWA thus why UKAWA doesnot pay any political attention to him. In short Zitto has lost the regitimacy before the General Election, he doesnot sure which constituency he will win when he will compete in this year General election. He desperates.

Ndugu sijakuelewa;
- I don,t believe in ZZK,,I only believe in God and my mother ONLY. However, I don,t doubt ability and charisma of ZZK to explain his points to common mwananchi.
- As of his popularity,,I am not concerned🙁 His SAGA with Chadema surely have made him more popular(negatively or positively, I am not sure: we will see).
-UKAWA with ZZK is more stronger than without him, even ACT is opposing the new katiba; as far as I am concerned, UKAWA sio chama cha siasa,

 

[FbUser]

Tatizo Chadema hawapendi kusikia wasiopenda kuyasikia hasa yenye ukweli kuhusu mwenendo wa mbio zao za magogoni. Zitto kabla ya Escrow si Zitto baada ya Escrow. October mtachoma mahindi kwa tochi

 

[Simple]

You must be naive enough to compare Kenya's political environment to Tanzania's one. Kenya's politics is inherently based on tribalism and regionalism,that's where Ruto's political force originated, Zitto?I can't say the same about him.

Tanzania politics is based on what????

Where ZZK political forces came from???

Please explain more ndugu,,tunajifunza tu hapa

 

[Simple]

your so simple,your analysis is so simple as your id

life is simple ndugu yangu,,

 

[Larusai Mux]

UKAWA SIO CHAMA CHA SIASA: ( Umoja wa KAtiba ya Wananchi),,lengo lao ni kupinga katiba pendekezwa,,sio kumtoa CCM madarakani:

RUZUKU za kampeni siku zote uleta matatizo kwenye Upinzani Tanzania. Hizo ndo tamaa ninazozizungumzia mimi.

waongea unjiiiinga kweli

 

[Larusai Mux]

Tatizo Chadema hawapendi kusikia wasiopenda kuyasikia hasa yenye ukweli kuhusu mwenendo wa mbio zao za magogoni. Zitto kabla ya Escrow si Zitto baada ya Escrow. October mtachoma mahindi kwa tochi

akili ndogo haiwezi kuishauri akili ndogoooo,thats why mkuu

 

[Simple]

waongea unjiiiinga kweli

Nielimishe niondoe ujinga wangu ndugu: UKAWA ni nini? Kwanini iliundwa?

 

[FUKO LA DHIKI]

Tiimu Zitto kazini.

 

[Bobuk]

Nielimishe niondoe ujinga wangu ndugu: UKAWA ni nini? Kwanini iliundwa?

Nchi hii kuna wajinga wengi? Bora mngekuwa hata mnakaririshwa vitu vya maana basi, kuliko UJINGA.

BTW have you ever heard ODM (Orange Democratic Movement)

Madhumuni ya mwanzo ya ODM yalikuwa nini?

TIPS CHUNGWA NA NDIZI

 

[Tuko]

I have said before in 2013, and i repeat again, Zitto will be the kingmaker in 2015 election.

Nothing is new in East africa politics, Ruto did it in Kenya, Bwana Zitto will do the same. I find quite many similarities among these two gentlemen, both shrewd politicians rising up from the common mwananchi family.

As for Ruto, he is a student of Moi and Baba Raila, he has shown times and times that he is not afraid to go against his masters.

Bwana Zitto is a student of Mbowe and mentored by Salim, well, he has shown since 2009 that he is willing and able to challenge his tutor.

After the 2007 election in Kenya, Bwana Uhuru sat down and calculated why he lost. The reason was RUTO. He swang away the important votes and gave Kibaki a thin win.

Uhuru learnt his lesson: The tyranny of numbers. He needed Ruto to add up his numbers and win the election, and so had Ruto on board and won the election.

UKAWA needed Zitto on board in order to give CCM a real test for the top job. Whomever UKAWA could have decided to put up as it's presidential candidate( Lipumba or Slaa), Zitto could have been the running mate. Simply because the man has 2 million voters or more in his pocket. Its nature of African voters to follow a person rather than policies.

Lets look at 2010 election numbers:

Total votes: 8,626,283
CCM:

5,276,827
CHADEMA: 2,271,491
Others: 900,000

From my analysis: Zitto himself brought to chadema around 700,000 votes, and he has left with him around same number of votes: The regions that CHADEMA overwhelmingly won were the region Zitto campaigned heavily: With the new voters registration, UKAWA should focus on gaining new voters, CCM has almost 4 million permanent voters. CHADEMA has almost 1.5 million permanent voters.

CUF and other UKAWA members have very little contribution when it comes to presidential votes, Lipumba has never gained any popularity for all those elections, its better for UKAWA to have Zitto and Mbatia on board rather than Lipumba if they want to fight for the top job: Apart from Zanzibar; CHADEMA is carrying too much burden from UKAWA.

If CHADEMA wanted to win,(Slaa&Zitto) they could have made more than 4 million votes it takes to take out CCM: Slaa has his own 0.5 million votes, Zitto has his own 1.5 votes, Chadema has around 2 million votes, if the focus could have been to get new voters around 1 million, surely CCM with or without Lowassa could have struggled in the coming election.

My estimates for the coming election: From 9 million voters

CCM: around 5 million
CHADEMA\Ukawa: around 2.5 million
Zitto\ACT: around 1.5.million

This is only my analysis: Nina haki ya kufikiria nitakavyo: I have no political party or affiliation na yeyote:
Weka inputs zako kiustaarabu; I am a member here since 2007:

Kwa upande wangu...
1. Takribani wapiga kura milioni 1 wa mwaka 2010 hawatapiga kura mwaka huu
2. Takribani wapiga kura milioni 15 watapiga kura mwaka huu, milioni 8 wakiwa "wapya"..
3. Takribani wapiga kura milioni 1 waliopigia CCM mwaka 2010 hawataipigia tena mwaka huu (hii itashuhudiwa zaidi Arusha, Manyara, Mtwara, Lindi, Songea, Morogoro, Singida na Tabora)
4. Takribani wapiga kura laki 2 walioipigia CDM kura mwaka 2010 hawataipigia mwaka huu (Kigoma, Rukwa, Katavi)
5. ACT haitaweza kupata zaidi ya kura laki 2 kwenye uraisi kwa sababu haitakuwa na mgombea mwenye nguvu, na hata yenyewe haitakuwa na nguvu za kufanya kampeni

Halafu
1. Asilimia 50 ya wapiga kura hadi sasa wameshaamua chama watakachopigia kura bila kujali mgombea ni nani
2. Asilimia 25 ya wapiga kura watapiga kura kwa kuangalia mgombea ni nani
3. Kati ya hao asilimia 25, asilimia 10 ni watiifu wa Lowassa, kama hatapitishwa, asilimia 8 kati yao watapigia vyama vingine kwa hasira
4. Asilimia 25 ya wapiga kura wataamua kutokana na upepo na ushawishi wa kampeni
5. CCM kwa kutumia tume ya uchaguzi na dola, watalazimisha asilimia 5 ya kura kwao...

Kazi bado ni ngumu...

 

[stanlthecreator]

Tatizo Chadema hawapendi kusikia wasiopenda kuyasikia hasa yenye ukweli kuhusu mwenendo wa mbio zao za magogoni. Zitto kabla ya Escrow si Zitto baada ya Escrow. October mtachoma mahindi kwa tochi

Mkuu nakubaliana na wewe,chadema are not risk conscious,they are over. Confidence hasa baada ya results za serikali za mitaa,lakini in reality bado safari ni ngumu sana kwao na viongozi wa ukawa hili wanalijua, kitendo cha ku ignore kura za kigoma ni mistake kubwa sana ambayo wataijutia after october.Ccm wana permanent voters ndo maana hawasumbuki even without Lowasa bado wana uhakika wa kushinda.

 

[Bigirita]

Mimi ni mfuasi wa Tanzania: Muumini wa haki na demokrasia. Tafadhari fanya analysis yako iliyo deep ili nijifunze kutoka kwako.

Kuna sheria ya matumizi ya statistics imepitishwa juzi.........Matumizi ya data zisizo rasmi ni makosa ya jinai(lazima ziwe zimepitishwa na TBS). Ukipatikana na hatia utakwenda segerea kwa 2 years.

Acha ndoto za mchana.

 

[msemakweli]

I have said before in 2013, and i repeat again, Zitto will be the kingmaker in 2015 election.

Nothing is new in East africa politics, Ruto did it in Kenya, Bwana Zitto will do the same. I find quite many similarities among these two gentlemen, both shrewd politicians rising up from the common mwananchi family.

As for Ruto, he is a student of Moi and Baba Raila, he has shown times and times that he is not afraid to go against his masters.

Bwana Zitto is a student of Mbowe and mentored by Salim, well, he has shown since 2009 that he is willing and able to challenge his tutor.

After the 2007 election in Kenya, Bwana Uhuru sat down and calculated why he lost. The reason was RUTO. He swang away the important votes and gave Kibaki a thin win.

Uhuru learnt his lesson: The tyranny of numbers. He needed Ruto to add up his numbers and win the election, and so had Ruto on board and won the election.

UKAWA needed Zitto on board in order to give CCM a real test for the top job. Whomever UKAWA could have decided to put up as it's presidential candidate( Lipumba or Slaa), Zitto could have been the running mate. Simply because the man has 2 million voters or more in his pocket. Its nature of African voters to follow a person rather than policies.

Lets look at 2010 election numbers:

Total votes: 8,626,283
CCM:

5,276,827
CHADEMA: 2,271,491
Others: 900,000

From my analysis: Zitto himself brought to chadema around 700,000 votes, and he has left with him around same number of votes: The regions that CHADEMA overwhelmingly won were the region Zitto campaigned heavily: With the new voters registration, UKAWA should focus on gaining new voters, CCM has almost 4 million permanent voters. CHADEMA has almost 1.5 million permanent voters.

CUF and other UKAWA members have very little contribution when it comes to presidential votes, Lipumba has never gained any popularity for all those elections, its better for UKAWA to have Zitto and Mbatia on board rather than Lipumba if they want to fight for the top job: Apart from Zanzibar; CHADEMA is carrying too much burden from UKAWA.

If CHADEMA wanted to win,(Slaa&Zitto) they could have made more than 4 million votes it takes to take out CCM: Slaa has his own 0.5 million votes, Zitto has his own 1.5 votes, Chadema has around 2 million votes, if the focus could have been to get new voters around 1 million, surely CCM with or without Lowassa could have struggled in the coming election.

My estimates for the coming election: From 9 million voters

CCM: around 5 million
CHADEMA\Ukawa: around 2.5 million
Zitto\ACT: around 1.5.million

This is only my analysis: Nina haki ya kufikiria nitakavyo: I have no political party or affiliation na yeyote:
Weka inputs zako kiustaarabu; I am a member here since 2007:

Zitto is a good guy, but i wouldnt trust him to lead this country. He is too volatile a man and no offence he is a calculating two-face like the rest. He is one of those guys that need to be under someone's supervision.