Kuna story hiyo ya Aunt Zeituni anayeishi kwa "projects" za Southie (originally Irish section of the city) na Uncle Omar Hussein Onyango Obama wa Dorchester ( formerly Jewish neighborhood, siku hizi ni unuguni) ambaye yupo AWOL (tena huyu miaka michache ilopita majambazi bado nusu wamuue kwenye convenience store yake mitaa ya Dorchester Ave).....hizi story zipo ki-tabloid na ni ktk kufurahisha baraza, lakini hazina madhara yeyote hiyo J4.
Obama voters wameshaamua na hawata badili mawazo na story yeyote isiyohusu uchumi, war on terror na vitu vingine muhimu ktk maisha yao!!
Kama Obama ana poll 50% and/or higher come Nov 4th basi McKopo kwisha habari yake. Kwenye wakti huu, assumption ni kwamba undecideds kwa kiasi kikubwa wata vote McKopo na ndio hapo hiyo theory ya 50% or higher Obama inapokuwa muhumu...ikimaanisha kwamba, jamaa atapata kura exactly kama polls zinavyoonyesha na kwa maana hiyo basi ni a WIN!!
naona Babu ana ad mpya featuring Rev. Wright ina run mitaa ya kati.....desperations!!!
Naona early votes zinaonyesha Dems wanawaoutnumber GOP.....ebanae sasa hivi emotions ziko high kuna watu wameacha kufuatilia maswala ya siasa mpaka uchaguzi upite....
Obantu ha poll zaidi ya 50% katika polls zote. Hata kama ana poll zaidi ya 50% kwenye baadhi ya polls...ukweli ni kwamba hizi polls haziamui mshindi ni nani na nakuhakikishia kuwa hizi pre-election polls hazita hold election day. Ndipo hapo mtaanza kulia lia kaa visichana....ubaguzi...ubaguzi...ubaguzi.....
Miaka yote huwaga hivyo hivyo. Angalia data za 2004 na utaona storyline ile ile. Democraps have always been high propensity voters. Subiri uone redneck massive turnout jummane.....
McCain is going to win this damn thing. No question about it.
Miaka yote huwaga hivyo hivyo. Angalia data za 2004 na utaona storyline ile ile. Democraps have always been high propensity voters. Subiri uone redneck massive turnout jummane.....
McCain is going to win this damn thing. No question about it.
....polls nyingi tofauti tofauti zinaonyesha Obama yupo kwenye lower 50s, kwahiyo undecideds wapo kama 6% or less...wote wakimpigia McKopo bado babu hatofikisha 50%!!! hiyo ina translate kwenye Obama win....yes we can!!!
sio kweli, Mwaka 2000 wkend kama hii Dubya alikuwa anaongoza polls nyingi kwa asilimia tatu or less..ilikuwa kwamba kama unaweka margins of errors ngoma ilikuwa dede! na tunajua what happened ktk uchaguzi ule...
fast foward, Obama anacheza na 51 to 54 tegemea na poll unayoangalia...wakti McKopo anacheza na 41 to 44, undecideds ni kati ya 2 to 8%.....ina maana kwamba McKopo hata afanyeje (assume kwamba undecideds wote wana-vote yeye) hatofika 50%!! Hiyo ina maana a Obama Presidency.....
Kwa mbwembwe siku hiyo najifuta Cheers ya Beacon Street kuangalia matokeo na liberals wenzangu huku tukipata Samuel Adams!! LOL..
Yes We Can......usiache kuangalia Game la Redskins v/s Steelers na lile la Colts v/s Patriots.
Go Steelers, Go Pats!!
Nyani inakuwaje umechange jina tena...?
Story ya Zeituni inanuka kaharufu ka kisiasa siasa....naona Mwenyekiti wa Judiciary Committee kamuandikia barua Chertoff kuhusiana na hii issue.
Labda waibe kama walivyofanya 2000 na 2004, vinginevyo kishatayarishiwa kazi ya kutengeneza mvinyo kwenye kiwanda cha mkewe.
The polls won't show that it is working because if you are white and say yeah Obama is associated with Ayers and Wright you run the risk of being branded racist even if you are not one. Now, no one wants to be branded a racist. Mind you, this is a very different presidential campaign with a black man (or mullato, if you will) at the top of the ticket. But I guarantee you this, in the privacy of the voting booth, people will be able to comfortably express their opinions. Now, you can take all the joy you want to in the so called "polls" that you fondly like to point to but I hope you remember that none of these "polls" matter in the end. The only poll that matters is the one on Nov.4th and no one has any way of knowing how that will turn out.
What do you say about Zogby's poll below......
Released: November 01, 2008
Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby Poll: Is McCain Making a Move?
Obama 49.1%, McCain 44.1%
"
Sorry if i will be out the topic.
Could somebody please remind me the name of "Ikulu ya Marekani"?
Once again, sorry for the Inconveniences caused.
Call me lizy.
Wazee that was Nyani McCain on October 3. 10 days later he said the following while responding to Hosftede....
Quote:
Originally Posted by hofstede View Post
Obama extend the lead from 7% yesterday to 10% today. Gallup 51% -41% McCain.
Nyani its you who said the real polls will be on Nov 4 so why go back to these polls which you had discredited them?"
NYANI MCCAIN: Exactly my point!! How can some polls say Obantu is ahead by 10 or more while other's have a statistically tied race? Hint:........
This is Nyani aka Lean Back today....
"Haya bana...wewe endelea kujipa moyo.....
Ila kaa ukijua hizi polls sio exact science...actually it's more of an art than science....
What do you say about Zogby's poll below......
Released: November 01, 2008
Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby Poll: Is McCain Making a Move?
Obama 49.1%, McCain 44.1%"
Zogby Poll Showing McCain Lead Interviews Fewer Democrats Than All Other Surveys
On Saturday morning, Drudge trumpeted the latest one-day finding in John Zogby's latest three-day tracking poll on the presidential race. While Zogby's three-day average still shows a 5-point lead for Barack Obama over John McCain, the pollster notes on his site today that McCain led Obama by one point, 48 to 47, in the last day of surveys.
More cautious than Drudge, however, Zogby says that it's too early to declare that McCain has made decisive gains over Obama. "If McCain has a good day tomorrow, we will eliminate Obama's good day three days ago, and we could really see some tightening in this rolling average. But for now, hold on," Zogby writes.
But as the Huffington Post reported on Thursday when discussing the latest Fox News poll, Zogby has a unique methodology in his polling. He fixes -- or "weights" -- the partisan balance of his respondents, unlike most pollsters. While his admirably transparent and stable practice guarantees a certain methodological sameness from day to day, therefore making any new lead for McCain worth reporting, Zogby's partisan weighting can also raise other questions.
Asked earlier this week what the partisan weighting of their poll currently is, a Zogby aide told the Huffington Post: "Party ID remains at 38 Democratic - 36 Republican - 26 Independent. We have added a point for 18-29 [year old voters], 1.5 for African Americans, and 2 for Hispanics."
Earlier this year, Zogby told me that "party ID is a lead variable, and a major determinant in how people vote. I apply a weight to party ID, and if I see a reason for it to change, I will."
Still, Zogby's two point party ID advantage for Democrats is the smallest of any polling firm. The last four days of the Hotline/Diageo poll show anywhere from a four- to six-point advantage for Democrats -- and a simultaneous seven-point lead for Obama. Gallup's latest surveys indicate that Democrats have an 11-point advantage over Republicans in party ID (including what the firm describes as partisan "leaners").
Zogby's partisan makeup gives even less of a partisan advantage to Democrats than Fox's latest poll, which earned some skepticism, as well.
As for the day-to-day fluctuations in tracking polls, Emory University political scientist Alan Abramowitz says they are "almost entirely due" to random statistical error, or "noise."
"The trackers don't move in sync with each other -- one goes up, another goes down," he tells the Huffington Post. "This is what we are seeing today in fact. Already we see that Obama is down in Zogby but up in DailyKos and Rasmussen. No doubt we'll see more of the same in the next three days.
For what it's worth, McCain lead pollster Bill McInturff sees things Zogby's way. In a Friday conference call with reporters, McInturff said "I don't see how you have party ID at negative 8 [percent for Republicans]. That's not America ... anywhere in the last generation and a half."
Aside from determining the next president, Tuesday's election might be used to settle a few scores in the polling profession, as well.
The bottom line: There is no evidence here of any real trend toward McCain in either the national polls or the state polling as smart analysts like Nate Silver of fivethirtyeight.com and Mark Blumenthal and Charles Franklin of Pollster.com have shown.
Friday, October 31, 2008
Rick Davis: McCain 'Dead-Even in Iowa'
Posted by: Matt Lewis at 10:57 AM
Everyone has written-off Iowa. In fact, we've been very curious as to why McCain -- who opposes Ethanol subsidies -- has "wasted" his time there this year.
I'm on a conference call right now with McCain campaign manager Rick Davis. According to Davis, McCain's internal polling shows them "dead-even in Iowa." Davis says this is the reason Obama is headed there to campaign ...