Uchumi wetu umeinuka kwa kiasi gani miaka sita ya utawala wa Kikwete?

[CAMARADERIE]

Tangu 2006 hadi sasa uchumi umekua kwa kiasi gani kiasilimia?.......

Kikwete alisema kuongezeka kwa foleni ni maendeleo kwa kuwa watu wananunua magari kwa wingi. Labda ndio kukua kwenyewe kwa uchumi vile yeye ni mchumi!

 

[Ntale Wi Isumbi]

Kwa kuangalia baadhi ya vigezo kama vile: mfumuko wa bei, kushuka kwa thamani ya shilingi, ukosefu wa huduma muhimu kama vile umeme, huduma za afya, maji safi na salama, elimu bora n.k.,. Na kwa kuzingatia hali ilivyokuwa mwaka 2005 kabla ya utawala wa JK, naomba kubadilisha swali na kuwa Je, uchumi wetu umeshuka kwa kiasi gani miaka sita ya utawala wa Kikwete?

 

[WOWOWO]

Mi naona kama ni mapishi mazuri ya data huko BOT. Hiyo 6-7.8% ukuwaji uko wapi? kila kitu ovyo kuna siri kubwa imejificha BOT.

Eti uchumi unakuwa kivipi? hata burundi inatushinda kununua ndege mpya achilia mbali Rwamnda ambayo iko mbali teyari.

kikwete anaboresha barabara ili malori yapite bila tatizo ili mafisadi waendelee kutufyoza kwa milija iliyojikita kuanzia ikulu.

Ukianagalia

1. Shirika la Ndege Ovyo

2. Afya Ovyo

3. Elimu Ovyo

4. mashirika ya Reli kati na Tazara ovyo

5. Bandari Ovyo

a) Hebu naomba watalaam wa uchumi japo kidogo mtusaidie huu ukuwaji wa kati ya 6 - 7.8% unatuasaidiaje katika inchi yetu?

b) Nimejaribu kusoma hizo data/takwimu hapo juu sipati picha, Je Uchumi unakuwa, vipi kuhusu deni la Taifa ndani na nje linapungua?

Nitashukushuru kwa ufafanuzi.

Mkuu hakuna ufafanuzi hapa, ukishafikia kiwango hiki ni kwamba UMEKUFA.Hauhitaji degree ya uchumi kuliona hili.Sasa kama Taifa tumekufa kiuchumi tunachobaki tunapambana nacho ni jinsi ya kuwawezesha watawala kupata mishahara na kuzunguka nchini na nje ya nchi kutucheza shere. We are lost and totally trapped in poverty.

 

[Mwanaukweli]

masopakyindi, njoo huku utoe hoja, ndiko unakoweza kunivuta CCM si kule kwenye propaganda za Nape.

 

[masopakyindi]

Kuna mambo ambayo anaweza kujivunia kwenye uchumi?

Nilikuwa naendesha corolla sasa naendesha Purado, kama hayo si maendeleo basi sijui ni nini.
Hata Mukulu kasema magari mengi=maendeleo, isipokuwa barabara zinatubana.

 

[masopakyindi]

masopakyindi, njoo huku utoe hoja, ndiko unakoweza kunivuta CCM si kule kwenye propaganda za Nape.

Haroo mujini hapatutoshi, inabidi urudi kulima!!

 

[Ngagarupalu]

Taarifa ya Wizara ya Fedha November 2008:

Table 1: Performance of key debt indicators:

Indicators	2000/01	2001/02	2002/03	2003/04	2004/05	2005/06	2006/07	2007/08
Public debt as % GDP	65.6	61.6	58.4	53.5	48.9	50.8	48.2	30.2
External debt as % GDP	55.3 5	1.5	47.7	43.0	37.6	36.3	31.6	16.6
Domestic debt as % GDP	10.3	10.1	10.7	10.5	11.3	14.5	16.6	13.6
Public debt service as % Revenue	18.2	14.6	11.5	11.9	10.2	9.2	3.1	1.5

Hints za taarifa ya BOT na Wizara ya Fedha kwenda Mwaka 2005
Total national debt stock, as at end December 2004 stood at USD10.1 billion of which, USD 8.5 billion is external and USD 1.6 billion is Domestic. The total national debt (external and domestic) increased from USD 9.0 billion in December 2000 to USD 10.1 billion as at end-December 2004. The gradual increase in debt is mainly attributed by
increase in borrowing through securities for liquidity management, settlement of parastatal debt, claims and budget financing on part of domestic component. On other hand, disbursements, exchange rate fluctuations and accumulation of arrears contributed the increase in external debt

Total public and private external debt stock as at end December 2004 stood at USD 8.5 billion. The debt stock represents an increase of about 6.1 percent, compared to USD 8.1 billion registered in 1999. Despite the debt relief so far, the debt stock has increased due to structural adjustment policies that requires external finances, mainly sourced as loans from multilateral institutions that are offering concessional loans. At the same time, disbursements, exchange rates fluctuation and accumulation of interest arrears on non Paris Club Bilateral and
on commercial debt, also contributed to the increase in the debt stock.

During the period 2000 and 2001, there was a substantial decrease in the total debt stock from USD 7.9 billion in 2000 to USD 6.9 billion in 2001, being a decrease of 12.7 percent. The reduction was due to debt cancellations under PC VII arrangements.

Domestic Debt
Total domestic debt stock, owed by the United Republic of Tanzania (URT) stood at TZS 1,623.80 billion as at the end of December 2004, representing an increase of TZS 365.94 billion or 22.54 percent when compared to TZS 1,257.86 billion recorded at the end of December 2003. The rise is mainly attributed to government financing, monetary policy and development of capital markets.

historical data,2011- 2008= 4yrs, can you update to last year?

 

[Ngagarupalu]

Mi si mchumi lakini kinachoonekana ni bei za vitu kupanda kila kukicha. Mwaka 2005 tulikuwa tunanunua lita 5 za mafuta ya Sunola kwa Tshs 4500. Sasa ni Tshs 19000. Petrol ilikuwa T Shs 800, Sasa bei? Bei za mazao ya biashara zinazidi kushuka. Huo uchumi unaokua ni wa namna gani? Au ni hizo barabara zinazojengwa na kabla hazijaisha zinaanza kufanyiwa matengenezo?

kupanda kwa bei ya vitu ndo kukua kwa uchumi kwenye eti....... ingawa lazima kuendane na kupanda kwa.........

 

[Mwanaukweli]

Haroo mujini hapatutoshi, inabidi urudi kulima!!

Niko shamba, lakini high tech farm!

 

[Ngagarupalu]

Mzee unafanya research? Haya maswali ya statistics si ungekwenda idara ya takwimu au hata BOT wakupe zile economic bulletin zao?

Bayana
MMM anataka kuja na article iliyosheheni, mpe tafu kwenye hizo source.....maana ya weza kuwa desk research/paper

 

[masopakyindi]

Niko shamba, lakini high tech farm!

Mkuu nakuvulia kofia , lakini huko nakuja wakati wa mavuno tu!

 

[masopakyindi]

Kwa kuangalia baadhi ya vigezo kama vile: mfumuko wa bei, kushuka kwa thamani ya shilingi, ukosefu wa huduma muhimu kama vile umeme, huduma za afya, maji safi na salama, elimu bora n.k.,. Na kwa kuzingatia hali ilivyokuwa mwaka 2005 kabla ya utawala wa JK, naomba kubadilisha swali na kuwa Je, uchumi wetu umeshuka kwa kiasi gani miaka sita ya utawala wa Kikwete?

Kwa kadri ya uelewa wangu katika masuala haya, mambo yote ni subjective.
Wakati wewe unaongelea kushuka, MMKJJ anaongelea kukua kwa uchumi.
Tatizo hapa ni standard mark ya pale pa kuanzia.
Namshukuru jamaa DSN kwa kutoa indicators za ulinganishi kwa miaka nane(2001-2008) kuonyesha tulikotoka na tunakoelekea.

Taarifa ya Wizara ya Fedha November 2008:

Table 1: Performance of key debt indicators:

Indicators	2000/01	2001/02	2002/03	2003/04	2004/05	2005/06	2006/07	2007/08
Public debt as % GDP	65.6	61.6	58.4	53.5	48.9	50.8	48.2	30.2
External debt as % GDP	55.3 5	1.5	47.7	43.0	37.6	36.3	31.6	16.6
Domestic debt as % GDP	10.3	10.1	10.7	10.5	11.3	14.5	16.6	13.6
Public debt service as % Revenue	18.2	14.6	11.5	11.9	10.2	9.2	3.1	1.5

Hints za taarifa ya BOT na Wizara ya Fedha kwenda Mwaka 2005
Total national debt stock, as at end December 2004 stood at USD10.1 billion of which, USD 8.5 billion is external and USD 1.6 billion is Domestic. The total national debt (external and domestic) increased from USD 9.0 billion in December 2000 to USD 10.1 billion as at end-December 2004. The gradual increase in debt is mainly attributed by
increase in borrowing through securities for liquidity management, settlement of parastatal debt, claims and budget financing on part of domestic component. On other hand, disbursements, exchange rate fluctuations and accumulation of arrears contributed the increase in external debt

Total public and private external debt stock as at end December 2004 stood at USD 8.5 billion. The debt stock represents an increase of about 6.1 percent, compared to USD 8.1 billion registered in 1999. Despite the debt relief so far, the debt stock has increased due to structural adjustment policies that requires external finances, mainly sourced as loans from multilateral institutions that are offering concessional loans. At the same time, disbursements, exchange rates fluctuation and accumulation of interest arrears on non Paris Club Bilateral and
on commercial debt, also contributed to the increase in the debt stock.

During the period 2000 and 2001, there was a substantial decrease in the total debt stock from USD 7.9 billion in 2000 to USD 6.9 billion in 2001, being a decrease of 12.7 percent. The reduction was due to debt cancellations under PC VII arrangements.

Domestic Debt
Total domestic debt stock, owed by the United Republic of Tanzania (URT) stood at TZS 1,623.80 billion as at the end of December 2004, representing an increase of TZS 365.94 billion or 22.54 percent when compared to TZS 1,257.86 billion recorded at the end of December 2003. The rise is mainly attributed to government financing, monetary policy and development of capital markets.

Kulingan na nafsi yako katika mchanganuo huo wa kiuchumi kwa miaka yote hiyo, mtu (au jamii)unaweza sema umefaidika vipi na mabadiliko hayo ya uchumi.

 

[Mwanaukweli]

Kwa kadri ya uelewa wangu katika masuala haya, mambo yote ni subjective.
Wakati wewe unaongelea kushuka, MMKJJ anaongelea kukua kwa uchumi.
Tatizo hapa ni standard mark ya pale pa kuanzia.
Namshukuru jamaa DSN kwa kutoa indicators za ulinganishi kwa miaka nane(2001-2008) kuonyesha tulikotoka na tunakoelekea.


Kulingan na nafsi yako katika mchanganuo huo wa kiuchumi kwa miaka yote hiyo, mtu (au jamii)unaweza sema umefaidika vipi na mabadiliko hayo ya uchumi.

Zaidi ya asilimia 75 hawafaidiki na kukua huko kama ioneshavyo hapa:

	Percentage
	1992	2000	2007
Income share held by third 20%	16.55	16.28	15.56
Income share held by fourth 20%	22.23	22.25	21.7
Income share held by highest 20%	41.61	42.31	44.83
Income share held by highest 10%	26.61	27.03	29.61
Income share held by lowest 10%	3.04	3.05	2.82
Income share held by lowest 20%	7.43	7.33	6.8

Source: World Bank, based on Budget and Household Surveys 1992, 2000, 2007

 

[Ngagarupalu]

Very interesting Topic

Nadhani kama mchangiaji mmoja alivyosema, kuna upikaji mkubwa wa data hapo BoT. nina friends wangu wanafanya kazi BoT kama wachumi lakini wao wenyewe wanashangaa. Mh. Zitto kama upo hebu tupatie formula wanayotumia BoT ku arrie kwenye economic growth and economic Development.

By definition: Economic growth is the increase in the amount of the goods and services produced by an economy over time. It is conventionally measured as the percent rate of increase in real gross domestic product, or real GDP. Growth is usually calculated in real terms, i.e. inflation-adjusted terms, in order to obviate the distorting effect of inflation on the price of the goods produced.

Inflation inakua kwa zaidi ya 15% bado uchumi wetu uko pale pale??????

Umeme ulipanda kwa zaidi ya 42% which is the main cost in most manufacturing and other leading sectors, bado uchumi unakua kwa rate ile ile???????

Mgao wa umeme kwa zaidi ya masaa 8 kwa siku bado uchumi unaendelea kukua kwa kasi ya ajabu


Kitu ambacho sijafahamu mimi kama mchumi ni shock absober inayoweza kuzuia shocks yeyote inayojitokeza
na kufanya uchumi ukue kwa kiasi kile kile kila mwaka.

as umejiita Mchumi, this is my take......... source of data, is it reliable? hivi leo hiyo inflation rate (15%) u said, who provide it? is it the one we all ( economic agents see it? i.e walaji na wazalishaji,) wanaitumia hiyo?
Jambo moja muhimu tunahitaji independent institution, ( eg REPOA, ESRF, simanishi hizo ) ziwe na data base hata ya commodity prices, wages, migrants, transfers, agricultural products, whole sale and retail records. ndo tunaweza sema ukuaji independently. na wala siyo BoT, na NBS data alone.
Siasa, UDSM wana REDET, hivi UDSM economics wa nini kama hiyo?

 

[sinshoo]

ni Mazingaombwe mtupu tatizo hakuna uwazi ktk kila kitu huwezi pata data kamili. CCM JUU ya kila kitu Propaganda ndio kitu kinawafaa watanzania, Uchumi lazima uwe na Impact na mwananchi wa kawaida through Madawa hospitalini na Huduma bora za afya majengo vitendea kazi vya Ops na ubora wa Hosp, Good and clean public School, Reliable Public transport town and Up country, mfumuko wa bei uwe around 2.5 - 4% Rushwa kupungua nk

 

[mgt software]

Uchumi kweli umekua tumeondoa tatizo la usafiri, kama vile wingi wa boda-boda Kigwangara na January wanaelewa, tumeongeza barabara kama vile mbagala makorongo, mawasiliano hasa simu feki za mchina zinazozimwa hivi karibuni (sijui hasara itakuwa kwa nani) mativi used na feki kwa kuahabarisha zaidi, leo hii tutanavuna urenia ndio utapaaa mpaka basi.
Amejitahidi kuimalisha uongozi wa juu upande wa Polisi , hadi matukio mengi ya uharifu yamepungua ingawawaje doa la mwangosha, Polisi kuiba mafuta bandarini, kutorosha nyara za serikali bado vyamkabiri

 

[Awo]

Tangu mwaka 2002 uchumi wetu umekuwa ukikua kwa kati ya asilimia 7 hadi 7.8. Mwaka 2004 ndio ukuaji ulikuwa mkubwa zaidi (7.8%) na mwaka 2009 ndio kasi ya kukua ilipungua na kuwa 6% kutokana na kudorora kwa uchumi duniani.

Shida ni kwamba sekta ya kilimo na uvuvi ambayo ni shughuli ya wananchi zaidi ya asilimia 70 nchini, ni sekta imekuwa ikikuwa kwa kasi ndogo zaidi kuliko sekta zote. Wastani wa 4% kwa kilimo na uvuvi umepungua kasi na 2010 ulikua kwa 1.5%, na wataalam wanakadiria kuwa kukua kwa kilimo kwa asilimia 10 mfululizo kwa miaka kadhaa ndiko kunaweza kuwatoa watanzania walio wengi katika umaskini. Bado kuna uwezekano wa kuongeza uzalishaji wa mazao ya chakula na biashara. Bado tunaweza kuzalisha ziada ya chakula na kuongeza mauzo ya nje ya chakula (bidhaa ambayo haiyumbi sana kwa bei). Bado tunaweza kufanya kama Kenya kuingia katika kilimo cha matunda na kuyauza matunda fresh nje, bado tunaweza kuongeza kilimo cha bustani za mboga na kuuza nje, bado tunaweza kuongeza kilimo cha maua na kuuza nje. Wenzetu Kenya wamefanikiwa kwa hilo. Mifugo pia kuna opportunities nyingi.

Sekta ya viwanda ilikua kwa asilimia karibu 8 mwaka 2010, na wataalam wanakadiria ukuaji wenye manufaa kupunguza umaskini ni 15% kwa sekta hiyo.

Sekta ya madini imekuwa ikikua kwa wastani wa 15% kwa mwaka kati ya 2000 na 2007, lakini ilishuka kasi ya ukuaji mwaka 2010 na kurekodi ukuaji wa 2.7% na sababu ni ugumu wa kupatikana kwa mitaji kutokana na credit crunch. Lakini ni sekta iliyojitenga na sekta nyingine kwani karibu pembejeo zote zinaagizwa toka nje. Kasi ya ukuaji wa sekta ya madini, kama ingekuwa ina muunganiko na sekta nyingine ingefaidisha sana sekta za viwanda na huduma.

Sekta iliyo kubwa zaidi, ni sekta ya huduma (hii inajumuisha mawasiliano kama mitandao ya simu, utalii n.k) ambayo mwaka 2010 ilichangia pato la taifa kwa asilimia 44. Utalii peke yake umechangia asilimia 17 ya GDP mwaka 2010 na asilimia 40 ya mapato ya exports.

Nimejibu hivyo kwa kuwa ukuaji kwa ujumla hausemi sana.

Kama 70% ya watanzania wanategemea kilimo kama shughuli ya kiuchumi na ukuaji katika sekta hiyo ilifikia 1.5% in 2010 sasa kwa nini wanasema uchumi wa Tanzania unakua kwa asilimia kati ya 6 mpaka 7? Sio sahihi basi kusema kwamba uchumi wa Tanzania unakua kwa 1.5% tu? Na ndio maana watu wetu wengi ni maskini. Hiyo 7% wanaipata kwa kuangalia Dar es Salaam? Au wanaangalia nini?

 

[Mchambuzi]

Safi Mzee Mwanakijiji, nitarudi kwa hili;

 

[Mwanaukweli]

Kama 70% ya watanzania wanategemea kilimo kama shughuli ya kiuchumi na ukuaji katika sekta hiyo ilifikia 1.5% in 2010 sasa kwa nini wanasema uchumi wa Tanzania unakua kwa asilimia kati ya 6 mpaka 7? Sio sahihi basi kusema kwamba uchumi wa Tanzania unakua kwa 1.5% tu? Na ndio maana watu wetu wengi ni maskini. Hiyo 7% wanaipata kwa kuangalia Dar es Salaam? Au wanaangalia nini?

Sahihisho: kukua kwa sekta ya kilimo ni 4% si 1.5%. Hiyo ya pili ni ya uvuvi.

Pato la Taifa linajumuisha mapato ya sekta zote.

Kilimo ni sekta moja tu kati ya nyingi, lakini ndio iliyobeba watu wengi (76.4% Mwaka 2009, UNCTAD), Lakini mchango wa Sekta ya kilimo kwenye pato la Taifa ilikuwa ni chini ya asilimia 30 na inaonekana inazidi kushuka (28.7% mwaka 2009, 28.0% mwaka 2010, na 27.1% mwaka 2011).

Uwezekano wa kukua kwa uchumi bila kukua kwa sekta ya kilimo upo, kwani sekta hiyo ina mchango mdogo katika pato la Taifa. Na ndio sababu ya umaskini wetu. Walio wengi (wakulima), wana shughuli ambayo ina mchango mdogo kitaifa na haikui.

Sekta kubwa zaidi katika uchumi wetu ni Huduma (utalii na mitandao ya simu vimo katika sekta hii), ambayo inachangia zaidi ya 40% ya pato la taifa na inakua pia kwa kasi. Sekta hii inaajiri watu wachache, na faida kubwa ya mitandao ya simu inarudishwa nyumbani kwa wamiliki ambao ni wageni (repatriated). Madini ingawa ni sekta inayokua, lakini bado mchango wake ni mdogo, na unaajiri asilimia ndogo ya watanzania. Umiliki wa sekta ya madini bado pia ni tatizo na fedha ya faida ingawa inaonekana kwenye pato la Taifa, inarudishwa nyumbani kwa wamiliki (repatriated).

Mabadiliko ya kweli yanahitaji Rural transformation. Maeneo ya vijijini yanahitaji miundombinu (barabara, umeme, n.k.), yanahitaji kubadili kilimo tulicho nacho, tutumie mbinu mpya kama zana za kisasa na fursa tulizo nazo kama za umwagiliaji n.k., tunahitaji kuwa na viwanda vya kusindika mazao, na kuweka huduma bora za jamii vijijini. Haya yatapunguza asilimia ya watu wa vijijini wanaotegemea kilimo.

Bila hivyo ukuaji wa sekta ya kilimo utabaki chini, na umaskini Tanzania utaendelea kushamiri.

cc. rafiki yangu masopakyindi

 

[Olaigwanani lang]

Kikwete baada ya kuingia ikulu moja ya mikakati yake ni kuitoa nchi mahala ilipo na kuifikisha mahali pengine..!Jee..unajua kama ameshalitimiza hiloo..?Ametutoa kutoka mchele kilo 1 tsh 800 hadi 2500,nyama tsh 2500 hadi 6000,kibariti tsh tsh20 hadi 150,sembe sh 250 hadi 1200,kutoka kuwa na ndege 11 za atcl hadi ndege1 mbovu,petroli tsh 600 hadi 2100,..hii ndo ccm na mahamba yao...ndugu mwananch funguka....!