Mfumo wetu, CCM yetu vs Gambler's Fallacy: Matumaini ya Mwendawazimu??

[Abdulhalim]

Utangulizi
​

Gambler's Fallacy a.k.a Monte Carlo Fallacy, ktk lugha rahisi ni aina ya fallacy inayoeza kuwa-summarized kwa kimombo kama ifuatavyo:

Gambler's Fallacy assumes departure,outlier or anomaly from what occurs on average (expectation) or in the long-term will be rectified in the short-term

Illustratively, tunaeza kufupisha kaa ifuatavyo:

1. Event 'A' has happened
2. Event 'A' departs from expectation
3. Therefore, event 'A' will come to an end-soon.

Maelezo zaidi yanaeza kupatikana kwa wikipedia au chanzo kingine chochote cha kuaminika.

Kuongezea zaidi, mfano huu unapatikana kutoka kwa wikipedia.

For example, if a fair coin is tossed repeatedly and tails comes up a larger number of times than is expected, a gambler may incorrectly believe that this means that heads is more likely in future tosses.http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler's_fallacy#cite_note-1

Kusudio

Nia hasa ya kuleta utangulizi huo hapo juu, ni kulinganisha hali halisi ya mwenendo wa kiutawala ktk taifa letu ktk maisha halisi, hususan ktk wakti huu wa kipindi cha kufanya uchaguzi.


Jinsi ilivo ni kwamba wengi wetu tuna-commit hii fallacy, kwa kudhani kwamba uongzoi bora utapatikana kwa kujaribu, na ku-gamble, the same way a gambler does it in Monte Carlo Casinos...ati kwamba mfumo uliopo pamoja na failure na nyufa zake ambazo zinaonekana kila mahali, kila kona labda utabadilika siku moja na kutuletea mabadiliko makubwa, maendeleo ya kama yale tunayoyaona kwenye dunia za wenzetu.
Kwamba labda CCM pamoja na kuwa madarakani tangia uhuru (ambao ni sawa na umri wa mtu mzima anayeeza kujukuu) bado hakuna glimpses or signs of any splashes zozote kuonesha kuwa tupo kwenye right track kuelekea kwenye promise land. Sayuni.
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Changamoto
Changamoto kwa kila mmoja wetu, anayesoma kipande hiki, a-defend kwa hoja, je yeye ni gambler au si gambler, kama sio gambler ana mpango gani?
Mimi binafsi sio Gambler, nishakataa hii biashara ya kutegemea kuvuna madafu kwa kupanda chelewa, maana ni kujipa matumaini ya kiuendaazimu!!. Nimestack bado kwenye mawazo ya whats is next, mbele kiza nyuma kiza, I'm stalked with my own fear that my people are not seing things clearly. They don't know the magnitude of our problems!!

Tufenyeje wajemeni?
​

 

[Injinia]

Gambler's fallacy ni aina ya fallacy.
Hm, well done Abdulhalim

 

[MwanaFalsafa1]

Utangulizi
​

Gambler's Fallacy a.k.a Monte Carlo Fallacy, ktk lugha rahisi ni aina ya fallacy inayoeza kuwa-summarized kwa kimombo kama ifuatavyo:



Illustratively, tunaeza kufupisha kaa ifuatavyo:

1. Event 'A' has happened
2. Event 'A' departs from expectation
3. Therefore, event 'A' will come to an end-soon.

Maelezo zaidi yanaeza kupatikana kwa wikipedia au chanzo kingine chochote cha kuaminika.

Kuongezea zaidi, mfano huu unapatikana kutoka kwa wikipedia.

Kusudio

Nia hasa ya kuleta utangulizi huo hapo juu, ni kulinganisha hali halisi ya mwenendo wa kiutawala ktk taifa letu ktk maisha halisi, hususan ktk wakti huu wa kipindi cha kufanya uchaguzi.


Jinsi ilivo ni kwamba wengi wetu tuna-commit hii fallacy, kwa kudhani kwamba uongzoi bora utapatikana kwa kujaribu, na ku-gamble, the same way a gambler does it in Monte Carlo Casinos...ati kwamba mfumo uliopo pamoja na failure na nyufa zake ambazo zinaonekana kila mahali, kila kona labda utabadilika siku moja na kutuletea mabadiliko makubwa, maendeleo ya kama yale tunayoyaona kwenye dunia za wenzetu.
Kwamba labda CCM pamoja na kuwa madarakani tangia uhuru (ambao ni sawa na umri wa mtu mzima anayeeza kujukuu) bado hakuna glimpses or signs of any splashes zozote kuonesha kuwa tupo kwenye right track kuelekea kwenye promise land. Sayuni.
​

Changamoto
Changamoto kwa kila mmoja wetu, anayesoma kipande hiki, a-defend kwa hoja, je yeye ni gambler au si gambler, kama sio gambler ana mpango gani?
Mimi binafsi sio Gambler, nishakataa hii biashara ya kutegemea kuvuna madafu kwa kupanda chelewa, maana ni kujipa matumaini ya kiuendaazimu!!. Nimestack bado kwenye mawazo ya whats is next, mbele kiza nyuma kiza, I'm stalked with my own fear that my people are not seing things clearly. They don't know the magnitude of our problems!!

Tufenyeje wajemeni?
​

Mkuu do you know why most people use the Gambler's Fallacy as you pointed out? it's because for most, it is an imaginable to start researching and calculating every move hence one decides to gamble.

The best way to solve this problem is to educate people. Once people are educated they can at least be counted on to make calculate risks. I think the lack of knowledge is the core source of our problems. Most people are ignorant about things.

 

[Abdulhalim]

Gambler's fallacy ni aina ya fallacy.
Hm, well done Abdulhalim

Well-deone ya nini mkulu mhandisi??

Swali ni je?

Wewe ni gambler? yes or no? and why?

 

[Injinia]

Well-deone ya nini mkulu mhandisi??

Swali ni je?

Wewe ni gambler? yes or no? and why?

That was because you used a word to define itself Abdu.

No, I am not a gambler, not in that sense of the word, but I do take calculated risks in life once in a while- many pay off but some don't.

Are you?

 

[Abdulhalim]

Mkuu do you know why most people use the Gambler's Fallacy as you pointed out? it's because for most, it is an imaginable to start researching and calculating every move hence one decides to gamble.
The best way to solve this problem is to educate people. Once people are educated they can at least be counted on to make calculate risks. I think the lack of knowledge is the core source of our problems. Most people are ignorant about things.

Sijui kwanza kama kweli waTZ huwa wanajua kwamba wana-gamble, Mkuu ni kazi kwelikweli kujua kinachoendelea ktk vichwa vya watanzania, maana attitudes zao na busara zao huwa haziachi kunishangaza ktk mambo mengi.

Nways, it is sad kwamba changes needs people sometimes as a group. These people should understand that they need changes. Kaa nilivosema, wengi wa watu hawapo aware na kinachowazunguka. Wamezaliwa kwenye box, maisha yao yapo ndani ya box hilo, hawajui kilicho nje ya box, na sadly hawataki kutoka ndani ya box kuona nje kuna nini! Kutegemea kumuelimisha mtu ambaye hayuko self-aware, sijui unaanzia wapi!

 

[Abdulhalim]

That was because you used a word to define itself Abdu.

No, I am not a gambler, not in that sense of the word, but I do take calculated risks in life once in a while- many pay off but some don't.

Are you?

Fine enough.

Binafsi sio Gambler na siamini kuwa with current system and ruling party, will sooner or later change. Hawa jamaa wamepanda muembe, na hawatashuka chini mpaka wamemaliza maembe yote. Nawasikitikia watu wanaokaa chini kusubiria hawa wakwezi wawadondoshee maembe. Ni hatari tupu mkuu.

 

[MwanaFalsafa1]

Sijui kwanza kama kweli waTZ huwa wanajua kwamba wana-gamble, Mkuu ni kazi kwelikweli kujua kinachoendelea ktk vichwa vya watanzania, maana attitudes zao na busara zao huwa haziachi kunishangaza ktk mambo mengi.

Nways, it is sad kwamba changes needs people sometimes as a group. These people should understand that they need changes. Kaa nilivosema, wengi wa watu hawapo aware na kinachowazunguka. Wamezaliwa kwenye box, maisha yao yapo ndani ya box hilo, hawajui kilicho nje ya box, na sadly hawataki kutoka ndani ya box kuona nje kuna nini! Kutegemea kumuelimisha mtu ambaye hayuko self-aware, sijui unaanzia wapi!

Unajua mkuu matairi mawili ya mbele ya gari yana sukuma gari zima. Kwa maana hiyo basi Tanzania haihitaji kila Mtanzania awe ameamka bali we need a few exceptional people ambao za rest can follow. I might sound like a snob or elitist but ukweli ni kwamba tuki subiri kila tom dick and harry aelimika basi hatuta fika leo wala kesho. Tatizo letu ni kwamba hao few exceptional people wamepewa more incentives na wabaya kuwa upande wao kuliko wale wazuri. Wale watu exceptional wana more to gain kutokana na hali ya sasa kuliko hali ambayo sisi tuna taka kuiona.

 

[Abdulhalim]

Sasa hebu tizama basi jinsi watu wanavyopumbazwa. Macho na masikio ya 'watu wote' yameelekezwa kwenye siasa. Yameelekezwa kwenye uchaguzi wa 2010. Yameelekezwa kwa nani atakuwa diwani, mbunge, waziri mkuu au rais wetu. Wameziba milango yao ya ufahamu kana kwamba kinachoenda kutukia ni muarobaini wa matatizo yetu.

Haven't we had enough? Are we addicted or just dumb?
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Fallacy ya Gambler ni kwamba mtu anarudia kufanya matendo yaleyale akitegemea matokeo tofauti. Matokeo ya siku za nyuma anajua ni mabaya, lakini anajipa matumaini kuwa system will even in the future outcomes ! Mwanasayansi Einstein alishakataa hii dhana, kwamba huezi ukarudiarudia a failed attempt over and over expecting you will get it right by doing further repetitive attempts.
Why are we keeping trusting the same old procedures? Same old folks?

I have a theory. maybe many, but this one is about addiction.

Ukisha-gambler na kupoteza, kinachofata ni kujipa matumaini kuwa outcome inayofuata itanifeva. Then it becomes addictive, na akili haiezi kuona beyond- gambling! We might be addicted to gambling.

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[Joss]

Mada yako ni nzuri,ila si CCM yetu

 

[Waberoya]

I like your post;

you are comparing reality with facts, facts is that nothing will happen in these so called uchaguzi, reality is that people are addicted in those issues.

I am not a gambler, thats why I am free to express what is the truth that we need to hear and I like to hear the truth from others.

Bila mabadiliko ya katiba, serikali ya mseto, kupunguza madaraka ya rais na kuweka tume huru ya uchaguzi hatuna tunalofanya. Tumalize haya kwanza ndiyo tuwaze uchaguzi!

 

[Mzee Mwanakijiji]

How do you then reconcile gambler's fallacy with the laws of probability? If for example (using the coin toss demonstration), the chances of the coin to land head first or tail first are simply 50:50. If this is mathematically true, then it is not unreasonable to expect that the next time the coin is tossed it will land head up if the previous tosses ilikuwa ni "mwenge"! So.. sometimes the laws of probability require us to reasonably expect something different knowing what is probable!

 

[Abdulhalim]

I like your post;

you are comparing reality with facts, facts is that nothing will happen in these so called uchaguzi, reality is that people are addicted in those issues.

I am not a gambler, thats why I am free to express what is the truth that we need to hear and I like to hear the truth from others.

Bila mabadiliko ya katiba, serikali ya mseto, kupunguza madaraka ya rais na kuweka tume huru ya uchaguzi hatuna tunalofanya. Tumalize haya kwanza ndiyo tuwaze uchaguzi!

Nashukuru kama wewe sio gambler.

Ni vema ume-highlight vipengele unavodhani vinaeza kutufikisha mahali pazuri huko mbeleni. Lakini nashikwa na utata hapa, do we really need SIASA? Hatuezi kufikiri kitu kingine nje ya 'masuluhisho ya kisiasa'? Mambo kama uchaguzi (kupoteza muda wa watu ili wakafanye maigizo bungeni, kupoteza fedha za wavuja jasho kusimamia kuwaweka hawa waigizaji na pia kuwa nourish pale mjengoni na kusafisha nyota zao kwa mashangingi etc etc). Do we have to gamble and rest our hopes in politics?

 

[Abdulhalim]

Mada yako ni nzuri,ila si CCM yetu

Sawa

inategemea neno 'yetu' lina context gani mkulu.

 

[Abdulhalim]

How do you then reconcile gambler's fallacy with the laws of probability? If for example (using the coin toss demonstration), the chances of the coin to land head first or tail first are simply 50:50. If this is mathematically true, then it is not unreasonable to expect that the next time the coin is tossed it will land head up if the previous tosses ilikuwa ni "mwenge"! So.. sometimes the laws of probability require us to reasonably expect something different knowing what is probable!

Mchango mzuri huu.

Gambling has everything to do with probability. Nachojaribu kuona ni kwamba kwanini tunategemea ku-gamble while we have a thousands of other options ambazo hazihitaji kugamble. We have every right to demand the end of gambling kwenye mambo yanayogusa mustakabali wetu na vizazi vyetu.

Kwanini tubahatishe? Hilo ndo swali.

 

[Mzee Mwanakijiji]

Kwanini tubahatishe? Hilo ndo swali.

pointi yangu ni kuwa inawezekana siyo kubahatisha kwani kubahatisha ni kuachia nasibu ichukue nafasi yake. Lakini, kupanga kitu kuwa kinaweza kutokea kwa sababu ya data uliyonayo siyo tena kubahatisha kwani una msingi wa uchaguzi wako. Kama ningejua kuwa sarafu inapande zaidi ya mbili ambazo zote ziko sawasawa (sema 100) bado nitakuwa na sababu ya kimahesabu kufikiria upande gani unaweza kuangukia ilimradi naweza kukusanya data za kutosha kujua pande zilizoanguka ni ngapi au zinazoweza kuanguka.

Sasa kwenye suala hili la Uchaguzi Nyerere alilizungumzia vizuri kuwa demokrasia ni pamoja na haki ya wananchi kuchagua serikali mbaya na wataendelea kuchagua serikali mbaya mpaka pale watakapopatia! Kwa hiyo, kuchagua serikali mbaya ni sehemu ya demokrasia siyo kubahatisha. Wananchi wa Mexico iliwachukua miaka 70 kubadilisha chama chao, Indonesia nao hivyo hivyo.. nchi mbalimbali zimekuwa na muda mrefu wa kutawalia na chama chenye mrengo mmoja hadi pale wananchi walipopatia.

Sisi Tanzania tumefikia karibu sana na kupatia..tatizo ni kuwa conditions bado hazijatimia bado.

 

[Abdulhalim]

pointi yangu ni kuwa inawezekana siyo kubahatisha kwani kubahatisha ni kuachia nasibu ichukue nafasi yake. Lakini, kupanga kitu kuwa kinaweza kutokea kwa sababu ya data uliyonayo siyo tena kubahatisha kwani una msingi wa uchaguzi wako. Kama ningejua kuwa sarafu inapande zaidi ya mbili ambazo zote ziko sawasawa (sema 100) bado nitakuwa na sababu ya kimahesabu kufikiria upande gani unaweza kuangukia ilimradi naweza kukusanya data za kutosha kujua pande zilizoanguka ni ngapi au zinazoweza kuanguka.

Sasa kwenye suala hili la Uchaguzi Nyerere alilizungumzia vizuri kuwa demokrasia ni pamoja na haki ya wananchi kuchagua serikali mbaya na wataendelea kuchagua serikali mbaya mpaka pale watakapopatia! Kwa hiyo, kuchagua serikali mbaya ni sehemu ya demokrasia siyo kubahatisha. Wananchi wa Mexico iliwachukua miaka 70 kubadilisha chama chao, Indonesia nao hivyo hivyo.. nchi mbalimbali zimekuwa na muda mrefu wa kutawalia na chama chenye mrengo mmoja hadi pale wananchi walipopatia.

Sisi Tanzania tumefikia karibu sana na kupatia..tatizo ni kuwa conditions bado hazijatimia bado.

Mchango mzuri.

Kama watz wanaeza kuchagua uongozi mbaya bila ya kutegemea uwafanyie mambo mazuri mbeleni, then nadhani tatizo ni kubwa zaidi kuliko vile tunavodhani. Ndio!. Kama knowingly watu wanachagua uongozi mbovu, halafu anategemea utawaletea maendeleo it is equally absurd. Ndo maana ya ule usemi wa kutegemea kuvuna madafu kwa kupanda chelewa.
Nilisema awali kidogo kwamba ni vigumu sana kujua yanayoendelea vichwani mwa waTz..Bado najaribu kujua kwamba tatizo ni entirely gambling au kukosa kuunganisha matendo na matukio (actions and consequences analysis).

Repetitive Failures
Hili nimeliongelea kwamba ni kweli unaeza jua kwamba ukirusha shilingi kuna outcomes 2 tu. It is a fact. Lakini kurusha shilingi mara 5 ukapata 'head' badala ya 'tail', haimaanishi kwamba ukirusha tena hiyohiyo shilingi mara 5 zaidi chances za kupata 'tail' itaongezeka, maana ulichofanya nyuma hakina mafungamano na kitachotokea mbeleni. Hapa ndipo nilipotaka haswa kuihusisha kadhia hii na hali halisi. Kwamba kama ulikosea mara 5 zilizopita haimaanishi kwamba utapatia mara 5 zijazo! unaeza ukaendelea kukosea milele!

Is the coin fair? Really?
Labda niende mbele zaidi. Matendo ya wengi kaa sio wote yana-suggest kwamba tunaamini kwamba mfumo tulionao hivi sasa ni sahihi, na utatupeleka kwenye promise land, what we only need to do it to keep on trying....increase number of trials or legendarily, keep on committing the Monte Carlo Fallacy.. si ndio? Lakini how fair the coin? Do we really believe the leadership gives a damn about the a fair coin...? Watengeze fair coin, ili wapopolewe kutoka kwenye muembe uliojaa maembe mabivu? Thubutu!
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[Waberoya]

Nashukuru kama wewe sio gambler.

Ni vema ume-highlight vipengele unavodhani vinaeza kutufikisha mahali pazuri huko mbeleni. Lakini nashikwa na utata hapa, do we really need SIASA? Hatuezi kufikiri kitu kingine nje ya 'masuluhisho ya kisiasa'? Mambo kama uchaguzi (kupoteza muda wa watu ili wakafanye maigizo bungeni, kupoteza fedha za wavuja jasho kusimamia kuwaweka hawa waigizaji na pia kuwa nourish pale mjengoni na kusafisha nyota zao kwa mashangingi etc etc). Do we have to gamble and rest our hopes in politics?

Politics is just a custom tool to lead people, lakini kuna namna nyingi, we may use technocracy!

You want us to have our own systems?

 

[Abdulhalim]

Politics is just a custom tool to lead people, lakini kuna namna nyingi, we may use technocracy!

You want us to have our own systems?

Ndio maanake mzee Wabe.

Hebu chukulia scenario hii. Ungekuwa na kampuni yako, umeajiri wafanya kazi kadhaa , say 300. Chukulia unatoa huduma fulani au unauza bidhaa fulani ambazo zinahitaji sophisticated procedure kutengeza kitu kinachouzika.

Je kupata wakuu wa Idara na Vitengo, au uzalishaji, ungefanya demokrasia ya kuchaguana kwa kura au ungeweka vigezo vinavyokidhi kazi husika?

Nadhani jibu la swali ninalojitegemea ni kuwa hungeweka hata ndugu zako wakati wajua hawana technical expertise, sio ndio? Sasa swali linakuja kwanini tuwape nguvu ya kutuongoza wanasiasa ambao hawana technical knowhow ya kutatua tatizo lolote? Kwanini tuna-ignore ukweli kwamba kutatua matatizo kunahitaji utaalam na wataalamu ktk ngazi zote?