Japan ilitumbukia katika mdororo wa kiuchumi bila kutarajiwa mwishoni mwa mwaka jana, na kupoteza yake kama taifa la tatu kwa uchumi duniani kwa Ujerumani na kuzua mashaka kuhusu ni lini benki kuu itaanza kujiondoa katika matumizi yake ya fedha ya muongo mmoja wa kulegeza sera ya fedha.
Baadhi ya wachambuzi wanaonya kuhusu msukosuko mwingine katika robo ya sasa kama mahitaji hafifu nchini Uchina, matumizi duni na uzalishaji kusitishwa katika kitengo cha Toyota Motor Corp, ikiwa zote ni njia zenye changamoto ya kufufua uchumi.
"Kinachoshangaza zaidi ni uvivu katika matumizi na matumizi ya mtaji ambayo ni nguzo muhimu za mahitaji ya ndani," alisema Yoshiki Shinke, mwanauchumi mtendaji mkuu katika Taasisi ya Utafiti wa Maisha ya Dai-ichi.
"Uchumi utaendelea kukosa kasi kwa wakati huu bila vichochezi muhimu vya ukuaji."
Pato la taifa la Japani (GDP) lilishuka kwa asilimia 0.4% kila mwaka katika kipindi cha Oktoba-Desemba baada ya kuporomoka kwa 3.3% katika robo ya awali, data ya serikali ilionyesha Alhamisi, na kutatiza utabiri wa soko wa ongezeko la 1.4%.
Robo mbili mfululizo za msinyao kwa kawaida huzingatiwa kama ufafanuzi wa mdororo wa kiufundi.
Ingawa wachambuzi wengi bado wanatarajia Benki ya Japani itaondoa kichocheo chake kikubwa cha fedha mwaka huu, data dhaifu inaweza kutilia shaka utabiri wake kwamba kupanda kwa mishahara kutachangia matumizi na kuweka mfumuko wa bei karibu na lengo lake la 2%.
"Kupungua mara mbili mfululizo kwa Pato la Taifa na kushuka mara tatu mfululizo kwa mahitaji ya ndani ni habari mbaya, hata kama marekebisho yanaweza kubadilisha idadi ya mwisho ukingoni," alisema Stephan Angrick, mwanauchumi mkuu katika Moody's Analytics.
My take:
Kama chumi za nchi kubwa zinaporomoka kiasi hiki, vipi kuhusu nchi zetu za dunia ya tatu kama Tanzania ambayo hata takwimu zake zinakuwa na mashaka mengi ukizingatia hali ya sasa ya upatikanaji wa dollar, umeme na sukari ambayo imekuwa ni mateso sana kwa wananchi........hali ni mbaya sana.
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apan unexpectedly slipped into a recession at the end of last year, losing its title as the world's third-biggest economy to Germany and raising doubts about when the central bank would begin to exit its decade-long ultra-loose monetary policy.
Some analysts are warning of another contraction in the current quarter as weak demand in China, sluggish consumption and production halts at a unit of Toyota Motor Corp all point to a challenging path to an economic recovery.
"What's particularly striking is the sluggishness in consumption and capital expenditure that are key pillars of domestic demand," said Yoshiki Shinke, senior executive economist at Dai-ichi Life Research Institute.
"The economy will continue to lack momentum for the time being with no key drivers of growth."
Japan's gross domestic product (GDP) fell an annualised 0.4% in the October-December period after a 3.3% slump in the previous quarter, government data showed on Thursday, confounding market forecasts for a 1.4% increase.
Two consecutive quarters of contraction are typically considered the definition of a technical recession.
While many analysts still expect the Bank of Japan to phase out its massive monetary stimulus this year, the weak data may cast doubt on its forecast that rising wages will underpin consumption and keep inflation durably around its 2% target.
"Two consecutive declines in GDP and three consecutive declines in domestic demand are bad news, even if revisions may change the final numbers at the margin," said Stephan Angrick, senior economist at Moody's Analytics.
"This makes it harder for the central bank to justify a rate hike, let alone a series of hikes."
Economy minister Yoshitaka Shindo stressed the need to achieve solid wage growth to underpin consumption, which he described as "lacking momentum" due to rising prices.
"Our understanding is that the BOJ looks comprehensively at various data, including consumption, and risks to the economy in guiding monetary policy," he told a news conference after the data's release, when asked about the impact on BOJ policy.
The yen was steady after the data and last stood at 150.22 per dollar, pinned near a three-month low hit earlier in the week.
Yields on Japanese government bonds fell after the data as some traders pushed back bets of an early BOJ policy shift. The benchmark 10-year yield slid 4 basis points to 0.715%. The Nikkei stock average rallied to 34-year highs, with the data further underpinning recent reassurances from the BOJ that borrowing costs will stay low even after ending negative rates.
"Weak domestic demand makes it hard for the BOJ to pivot towards monetary tightening," said Naomi Muguruma, chief bond strategist at Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities. "The hurdle for ending negative rates in March has risen."
Japan's nominal GDP stood at $4.21 trillion in 2023, falling below $4.46 trillion for Germany to rank as the world's fourth largest economy, the data showed.
Reuters
Baadhi ya wachambuzi wanaonya kuhusu msukosuko mwingine katika robo ya sasa kama mahitaji hafifu nchini Uchina, matumizi duni na uzalishaji kusitishwa katika kitengo cha Toyota Motor Corp, ikiwa zote ni njia zenye changamoto ya kufufua uchumi.
"Kinachoshangaza zaidi ni uvivu katika matumizi na matumizi ya mtaji ambayo ni nguzo muhimu za mahitaji ya ndani," alisema Yoshiki Shinke, mwanauchumi mtendaji mkuu katika Taasisi ya Utafiti wa Maisha ya Dai-ichi.
"Uchumi utaendelea kukosa kasi kwa wakati huu bila vichochezi muhimu vya ukuaji."
Pato la taifa la Japani (GDP) lilishuka kwa asilimia 0.4% kila mwaka katika kipindi cha Oktoba-Desemba baada ya kuporomoka kwa 3.3% katika robo ya awali, data ya serikali ilionyesha Alhamisi, na kutatiza utabiri wa soko wa ongezeko la 1.4%.
Robo mbili mfululizo za msinyao kwa kawaida huzingatiwa kama ufafanuzi wa mdororo wa kiufundi.
Ingawa wachambuzi wengi bado wanatarajia Benki ya Japani itaondoa kichocheo chake kikubwa cha fedha mwaka huu, data dhaifu inaweza kutilia shaka utabiri wake kwamba kupanda kwa mishahara kutachangia matumizi na kuweka mfumuko wa bei karibu na lengo lake la 2%.
"Kupungua mara mbili mfululizo kwa Pato la Taifa na kushuka mara tatu mfululizo kwa mahitaji ya ndani ni habari mbaya, hata kama marekebisho yanaweza kubadilisha idadi ya mwisho ukingoni," alisema Stephan Angrick, mwanauchumi mkuu katika Moody's Analytics.
My take:
Kama chumi za nchi kubwa zinaporomoka kiasi hiki, vipi kuhusu nchi zetu za dunia ya tatu kama Tanzania ambayo hata takwimu zake zinakuwa na mashaka mengi ukizingatia hali ya sasa ya upatikanaji wa dollar, umeme na sukari ambayo imekuwa ni mateso sana kwa wananchi........hali ni mbaya sana.
===
apan unexpectedly slipped into a recession at the end of last year, losing its title as the world's third-biggest economy to Germany and raising doubts about when the central bank would begin to exit its decade-long ultra-loose monetary policy.
Some analysts are warning of another contraction in the current quarter as weak demand in China, sluggish consumption and production halts at a unit of Toyota Motor Corp all point to a challenging path to an economic recovery.
"What's particularly striking is the sluggishness in consumption and capital expenditure that are key pillars of domestic demand," said Yoshiki Shinke, senior executive economist at Dai-ichi Life Research Institute.
"The economy will continue to lack momentum for the time being with no key drivers of growth."
Japan's gross domestic product (GDP) fell an annualised 0.4% in the October-December period after a 3.3% slump in the previous quarter, government data showed on Thursday, confounding market forecasts for a 1.4% increase.
Two consecutive quarters of contraction are typically considered the definition of a technical recession.
While many analysts still expect the Bank of Japan to phase out its massive monetary stimulus this year, the weak data may cast doubt on its forecast that rising wages will underpin consumption and keep inflation durably around its 2% target.
"Two consecutive declines in GDP and three consecutive declines in domestic demand are bad news, even if revisions may change the final numbers at the margin," said Stephan Angrick, senior economist at Moody's Analytics.
"This makes it harder for the central bank to justify a rate hike, let alone a series of hikes."
Economy minister Yoshitaka Shindo stressed the need to achieve solid wage growth to underpin consumption, which he described as "lacking momentum" due to rising prices.
"Our understanding is that the BOJ looks comprehensively at various data, including consumption, and risks to the economy in guiding monetary policy," he told a news conference after the data's release, when asked about the impact on BOJ policy.
The yen was steady after the data and last stood at 150.22 per dollar, pinned near a three-month low hit earlier in the week.
Yields on Japanese government bonds fell after the data as some traders pushed back bets of an early BOJ policy shift. The benchmark 10-year yield slid 4 basis points to 0.715%. The Nikkei stock average rallied to 34-year highs, with the data further underpinning recent reassurances from the BOJ that borrowing costs will stay low even after ending negative rates.
"Weak domestic demand makes it hard for the BOJ to pivot towards monetary tightening," said Naomi Muguruma, chief bond strategist at Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities. "The hurdle for ending negative rates in March has risen."
Japan's nominal GDP stood at $4.21 trillion in 2023, falling below $4.46 trillion for Germany to rank as the world's fourth largest economy, the data showed.
Reuters
