As much as Aziz is trying to dissuade the president, it would seem that his era of influence is over
The resignation of Vice President Emanuel Nchimbi and his subsequent expulsion from Tanzania’s ruling party could mark the collapse of the country’s most powerful political faction which billionaire businessman Rostam Aziz bankrolled for decades.As the faction’s top ranking state official, Nchimbi’s resignation and removal from CCM leaves Aziz exposed as President Samia seeks to chaperon her succession in 2030. Nchimbi who harboured his own presidential ambition was seen as a stumbling block in Samia’s plot to entrench her influence beyond her constitutional term in office.
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The business mogul now faces yet another serious political setback that will test his association with the president who has increasingly grown suspicious of his close association with Nchimbi during the reign of President Jakaya Kikwete from 2005-2015.
The dramatic fallout of Nchimbi from the power echelons therefore puts Aziz at the crosshairs of Samia’s inner circle considering his extensive business interests linked to the political faction that was horning Nchimbi to assume the presidency after Samia. Aziz was said to be the financier of this political faction over the years.
With Nchimbi out of the way, Samia will likely squeeze his business empire to cut him down to size, and prevent him from shifting his political allegiance to potential rivals in the 2030 succession race.
The fear of Aziz stems from the knowledge that despite his public announcement to quit active politics in 2011, he continued to play the kingmaker role behind the scene which saw his fate cross with Kikwete’s successor John Magufuli who embraced him after an initial bad blood between them that saw Aziz take leave out of the country for a period of time.
Kingmaker for life, not anymore
As a merchant broker, courting the presidency has been Aziz’s game plan to grow his business empire and maintain his political influence. But that is now going to be tested as President Samia, whom he guided into the mainstream politics early in her career as a Special Seat MP in 2000, considers his friendship and political association to Nchimbi a setback in their own continued relations. Currently, Samia and Aziz are not on speaking terms, with reports suggesting he has been slammed at different state events.
The president’s inner circle are uncomfortable with Aziz whom they believe was working with Nchimbi to bar Samia from running for a second term, a claim that the former VP has refuted, siting his role in helping overcome powerful factions within CCM that were angling to challenge her for the CCM ticket in 2025.
On his part, Aziz had always considered Nchimbi the best candidate for the presidency, although the timing of the run was unclear.
Ongoing paranoia within the state could lead to a crackdown against Aziz and his business conglomerate in an effort to obliterate any chances of Nchimbi making a political comeback through the opposition parties. Apart from recently acquiring Kenya-based Nation Media Group, Aziz also invests in mining, LPG and telecommunications.
The rise of a power broker
Rostam entered Tanzania’s mainstream politics as an advisor to President Benjamin Mkapa during his bid for a second term in 2000. He used his closeness to Mkapa’s administration to broker mega deals for multinationals investing in Tanzania, which in return offered him supply contracts. It was this strategy that gave him a substantial stake in Vodacom Tanzania, and was one of Barrick’s biggest contractors.
With billionaire status, Aziz would go on to build the largest and most influential political grouping in Tanzania’s history, bankrolling former Presidents Benjamin Mkapa and Jakaya Kikwete. He would go on to lay the ground for then Prime Minister Edward Lowassa to succeed Kikwete in 2015. But fearing for his own survival, Kikwete moved to cut his tentacles and used the Richmond power supply scandal to purge on Lowassa who resigned as PM, and later defected to the opposition on whose ticket` he unsuccessfully run for presidency against Magufuli in 2015. It was during this period that ended a decade-long relationship between Kikwete and Aziz.
History repeating itself
After Lowassa lost the CCM presidential nomination to Magufuli, it was Aziz who persuaded him to join the opposition and run against Magufuli. After Lowassa’s defeat, their businesses were targeted and Aziz left the country. Nchimbi, who had opposed CCM’s nomination of Magufuli narrowly escaped being expelled and Magufuli subsequently appointed him the Tanzanian ambassador to Brazil.
Aziz returned to Tanzania only after Magufuli charged his brother, Akram, with economic crimes. He signed a peace deal and commitment to support Magufuli’s re-election in the 2020 election. Aziz used the window to reinvigorate his business and political network, with his ally Nchimbi making a big comeback at the helm of the ruling party and government when Samia took over following the death of Magufuli in 2021, barely a year into his second term.
With hindsight of his influence under the Magufuli regime, Samia who had a not-so-friendly working relationship with Magufuli tolerated Aziz over his deep pockets and the international connections which helped her interest in winning international support. But that has since tilted with her political survival superseding any other interests as the clock ticks towards another political succession battle in 2030.
Source: Can business mogul Rostam Aziz survive President Samia?
