Any answer to this poll question will just be do to guess work at best. Is this the purpose of the poll?
Future historians may benefit from gathering the mood of a part of the Tanzanian people and their thinking at this crucial time in our nation.
A lot of things are done with a patriotic stance (watu wengi wanataka kurudi nyumbani, wengine wanataka kujiunga na vita dhidi ya ufisadi etc) the poll will expose to what extent are we even contemplating the long term survival of our common denominator as Tanzanians.
The poll may expose for example, if many Tanzanians have no faith in the long term survival of their nation as is, this lack of hope may very easily translate itself into a reality, say in a referrendum or from pressure groups. the reverse is also true as Tanzanians are known for their spirited resilience in the face of unprecedented adversities.
No one knows the future and admittedly a big part of any "forward looking statement" involve speculation as any stock broker / financial planner worth his name will tell you, but this does not mean forecasting should not be ventured into.
55 years may seem like an eternity, but in the annals of nations it is not that remarkable. Despite the many obvious shortcomings associated with futurology one can build a solid case to support any of the four choices, in fact by questioning the predictability of the outcome you are leaning towards opting for the last option.
We need more forecasting, and more long term forecasting.Perhaps by focusing on the future, and the long term future at that (by Tanzanian standards at least, 50-100 years).We may gain a better perspective of our current problems and better address them, because by the look of things I doubt if we Tanzanians and especially our leaders, do in fact ask these questions.
This is why this poll is more important than it may first appear.
What we are gauging here, is not whether Tanzania will exist as is in 2064, but whether at this point based on known facts, you think Tanzania as is will exist in 2064. the two are different.
Regardless of the accuracy and predictability of the outcome from this relatively distant point, the outlook of the populace is important in the preservation of a nation.
And by the way, we need not necessarily wait 55 years to see any of the choice materialise.Zanzibar could secede in 10-15 years or even less for all we know for example. A relatively conceivable event like a CUF victory in the islands could trigger that.Also the EAC could move in a surprising direction.More than forecasting, this poll also elicit opinions and facts on these issues in the hope of injecting a fresh and informed dialogue on the subject.
