S E C R E T DAR ES SALAAM 000779 DEPARTMENT FOR AF/E: JTREADWELL; INR/RAA: FEHRENREICH; NSC FOR MGAVIN E.O. 12958: DECL: OADR TAGS: KDEM PGOV PHUM TZ SUBJECT: ZANZIBAR: MOVE TOWARD COALITION GOVERNMENT? REF: A. (A) DAR ES SALAAM 768 (NOTAL) (B) DAR ES SALAAM 765 ¶B. (C) DAR ES SALAAM 756 AND PREVIOUS Classified By: DCM Larry Andre for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (S) SUMMARY: During Ambassador Lenhardt's credentials call on President Kikwete November 12, Kikwete confirmed that opposition Civic United Front (CUF) leader Seif Sharif Hamad has agreed in principal to serve as Chief Minister in a CCM-led government-of-national-unity in Zanzibar. However, the details and modalities for such an arrangement are still in play, and the deal remains fragile. Failure in reconciliation will undoubtedly lead to violence. Since the November 5 Karume-Seif meeting, mainstream leaders in both parties have been busy working the crowd to shore up support. The idea is to have a package ready for adoption by Zanzibar's House of Representatives when it meets again in January 2010. For Seif Sharif, this might be the last, best hope to wield at least some degree of power before he retires from the field. For Karume, it might be that he is building guarantees that some of his key loyalist maintain posts in any follow-on coalition government. In that way, the extensive land and business acquisitions of Karume and his family would be protected, if not his political legacy. We should continue to support Kikwete and his efforts to foster reconciliation in Zanzibar. However, any "unity government" in Zanzibar also must mean more Pembans in leadership positions, regardless of CCM or CUF affiliation. Currently there are none even though Pemba makes up 40% of Zanzibar. For more information click here My take Maalim Seif sold CUF zamani sana!