Susuviri
JF-Expert Member
- Oct 6, 2007
- 3,713
- 888
With the electricity crisis ever worsening and the budget of the Ministry of Energy and Minerals having been withdrawn amid allegations of attempted corruption of MPs, more and more people are saying that JK should resign. He shouldnt be asked to resign.
In a radio interview recently with BBC Swahili, JK stated that his administration is not to blame for the crisis. The primary culprit is the shortfall in rains that has, for all intents and purposes, shut down hydroelectric power generation. He stated that he was not God; neither him nor his government could turn into a cloud and rain over Mtera. He further added that by December 2011 more than 300 MW of generation capacity will have been added to the grid by his administration, more than any other administration has ever done.
Based on reactions, these arguments have failed to placate the public. Not much of a surprise, since most of his arguments were BS and no real solution had been proposed. No-one, except maybe he himself once in a while, has ever thought of JK as God, and had expected miracles from him. However, many had hoped he would think strategically and act proactively. Unfortunately, here we are, in the 21[SUP]st[/SUP] century, and the only thing our president can do is shrug his shoulders, smile vacantly and tell us he wishes he were God.
A very surprising attitude since in 2006 he had been all gang-ho about resolving the electricity crisis then; enthusiasm that had culminated in Richmond and Dowans. Mired by corruption, the capacity installed then is not running now, further exacerbating the current crisis. Recently, Symbion bought Dowans and is said to start generating some 100 MW in August, presumably constituting ⅓ of the 300 MW electricity generation capacity added to the grid by JK. Then, sometime ago about 100 MW capacity generators had been ordered from Siemens by Tanesco (as JK put it: you dont just buy such generators of the shelf like mitumba, you have to order them many months in advance) which are currently being delivered and installed in stages; and should be running at full capacity by December, thus another ⅓ of the capacity added by JK. Furthermore, there is some coal fired generators currently being installed in southern Tanzania by foreign investors, to be largely used to feed the electricity needs of the mining operations of said investors; presumably making up the final ⅓ of the 300 MW capacity added to the grid by JK.
With regard to the 300 MW added to the grid by JK, only 100 MW is the capacity actually invested by Tanesco, hence by government. The remainder is capacity installed by private investors, so when JK says he added capacity to the grid it should be understood to mean that he mostly allowed private parties to participate in the electricity generation business. Unless he has personal stake in these private enterprises, in which case his statement is to be understood to mean that 100 MW was added by his administration and 200 MW by him as a businessman in office.
Sadly, this whole argument about not being God and drought being to blame is so ludicrous that JK himself gets confused, because one minute he argues that the lack of rain is to blame then he turns around and states that natural gas and coal is starting to be utilized. Now, either we wait for rain or we have alternatives and we use them. Neither that climate change was bound to cause serious vagaries in weather patterns nor that Tanzania has natural gas and coal reserves aplenty is news. The only news here is that JK and crew had failed to think ahead and act in due time.
The obvious solution to faltering rains would, of course, have been to capture more of it; that is to build dams. As well as to make better use of the natural water reservoirs that the country has (i.e. all the rivers and lakes we have). But, of course, constructing dams and hydroelectric power stations takes several years, thus falls in the realm of strategic thinking well outside the capacity of JK and crew. Just to make matters clear, the most conservative estimate of Tanzanias hydroelectric generation potential is 5 GW. 10 times as much as utilized when Mtera and other hydro-power plants run at full capacity.
Regardless, the recent purchase of generators by Tanesco, and thus by government, constitutes the largest public investment made in electricity generation in a long time. So, when JK says he has done more (or rather will have done more when these machines are installed and running) than his predecessors, he is factually right. However, he conveniently forgets to mention that his administration has had at its disposal more financial resources than any of his predecessors.
At the end of the Mwinyi administration Tanzania had essentially been bankrupt. It had taken at least the first term of the Mkapa administration to get the economy and public finances back on track. World Bank and IMF imposed austerity measures had prescribed, among others, privatization, the imposition of higher taxes and the opening up of the economy to foreign investors; earning President Mkapa the derogatory label ukapa. During the second term of the Mkapa administration, the economy had picked up, had started to grow and the country had acquired a reputation for being solidly committed to private enterprise and democracy; a key requisite when dealing with foreign lenders, donors and investors.
Thus, JK had come to power with 4 key factors in his favor:
In the 5 years between FY 2006/07 and FY 2010/11, the JK administration had been allocated some USD 10,000 million in development and net lending expenditures. Given that the capital cost of installing electricity generation capacity is between 1 and 2 million U.S. Dollars per MW; just 10% of the resources allocated to development over the last 5 years would have allowed for installing 500 to 1,000 MW in electricity production capacity. Furthermore USD 1,000 million invested thus would have amounted only to 3.4% of the overall USD 29,501 million spent by government during the last 5 years. 3.4% of government overall expenditure to double Tanescos electricity generation capacity and thereby avoid 12-18 hours per day blackouts and the collapse of the economy!
Interestingly enough in 2009 the administration had found the resources to finance a USD 1,300 million so-called stimulus package said to have been aimed at the agriculture, tourism, mining exploration, manufacturing and gemstone trade sectors.
I started by stating that JK should not be asked to resign then made an analysis of his and his administrations mistakes and failures, making the case for his removal. However, I still maintain he should not be asked to resign. He should be fired! I understand that forcing him to resign would amount to the same thing. But I do not see any reason for euphemisms, political niceties and allowing him to save face. He messed up big time, so fire him! Drastic problems require drastic measures as the saying goes. Let every current and future politician and senior civil servant learn once and for all: mess up and you will be kicked out in disgrace. I am waiting to see how we Tanzanians will deal with this gross incompetence in high office.
In a radio interview recently with BBC Swahili, JK stated that his administration is not to blame for the crisis. The primary culprit is the shortfall in rains that has, for all intents and purposes, shut down hydroelectric power generation. He stated that he was not God; neither him nor his government could turn into a cloud and rain over Mtera. He further added that by December 2011 more than 300 MW of generation capacity will have been added to the grid by his administration, more than any other administration has ever done.
Based on reactions, these arguments have failed to placate the public. Not much of a surprise, since most of his arguments were BS and no real solution had been proposed. No-one, except maybe he himself once in a while, has ever thought of JK as God, and had expected miracles from him. However, many had hoped he would think strategically and act proactively. Unfortunately, here we are, in the 21[SUP]st[/SUP] century, and the only thing our president can do is shrug his shoulders, smile vacantly and tell us he wishes he were God.
A very surprising attitude since in 2006 he had been all gang-ho about resolving the electricity crisis then; enthusiasm that had culminated in Richmond and Dowans. Mired by corruption, the capacity installed then is not running now, further exacerbating the current crisis. Recently, Symbion bought Dowans and is said to start generating some 100 MW in August, presumably constituting ⅓ of the 300 MW electricity generation capacity added to the grid by JK. Then, sometime ago about 100 MW capacity generators had been ordered from Siemens by Tanesco (as JK put it: you dont just buy such generators of the shelf like mitumba, you have to order them many months in advance) which are currently being delivered and installed in stages; and should be running at full capacity by December, thus another ⅓ of the capacity added by JK. Furthermore, there is some coal fired generators currently being installed in southern Tanzania by foreign investors, to be largely used to feed the electricity needs of the mining operations of said investors; presumably making up the final ⅓ of the 300 MW capacity added to the grid by JK.
With regard to the 300 MW added to the grid by JK, only 100 MW is the capacity actually invested by Tanesco, hence by government. The remainder is capacity installed by private investors, so when JK says he added capacity to the grid it should be understood to mean that he mostly allowed private parties to participate in the electricity generation business. Unless he has personal stake in these private enterprises, in which case his statement is to be understood to mean that 100 MW was added by his administration and 200 MW by him as a businessman in office.
Sadly, this whole argument about not being God and drought being to blame is so ludicrous that JK himself gets confused, because one minute he argues that the lack of rain is to blame then he turns around and states that natural gas and coal is starting to be utilized. Now, either we wait for rain or we have alternatives and we use them. Neither that climate change was bound to cause serious vagaries in weather patterns nor that Tanzania has natural gas and coal reserves aplenty is news. The only news here is that JK and crew had failed to think ahead and act in due time.
The obvious solution to faltering rains would, of course, have been to capture more of it; that is to build dams. As well as to make better use of the natural water reservoirs that the country has (i.e. all the rivers and lakes we have). But, of course, constructing dams and hydroelectric power stations takes several years, thus falls in the realm of strategic thinking well outside the capacity of JK and crew. Just to make matters clear, the most conservative estimate of Tanzanias hydroelectric generation potential is 5 GW. 10 times as much as utilized when Mtera and other hydro-power plants run at full capacity.
Regardless, the recent purchase of generators by Tanesco, and thus by government, constitutes the largest public investment made in electricity generation in a long time. So, when JK says he has done more (or rather will have done more when these machines are installed and running) than his predecessors, he is factually right. However, he conveniently forgets to mention that his administration has had at its disposal more financial resources than any of his predecessors.
At the end of the Mwinyi administration Tanzania had essentially been bankrupt. It had taken at least the first term of the Mkapa administration to get the economy and public finances back on track. World Bank and IMF imposed austerity measures had prescribed, among others, privatization, the imposition of higher taxes and the opening up of the economy to foreign investors; earning President Mkapa the derogatory label ukapa. During the second term of the Mkapa administration, the economy had picked up, had started to grow and the country had acquired a reputation for being solidly committed to private enterprise and democracy; a key requisite when dealing with foreign lenders, donors and investors.
Thus, JK had come to power with 4 key factors in his favor:
- A soundly growing economy, meaning solid and continuously growing domestic income
- Donor goodwill aplenty, meaning aid and grants in abundance
- Foreign investors queuing to invest, meaning plenty of capital and know how to tap
- The ability to once again borrow; especially starting mid-2006 when Tanzania had been granted, after several years of negotiations, billions of dollars in foreign debt relief.
In the 5 years between FY 2006/07 and FY 2010/11, the JK administration had been allocated some USD 10,000 million in development and net lending expenditures. Given that the capital cost of installing electricity generation capacity is between 1 and 2 million U.S. Dollars per MW; just 10% of the resources allocated to development over the last 5 years would have allowed for installing 500 to 1,000 MW in electricity production capacity. Furthermore USD 1,000 million invested thus would have amounted only to 3.4% of the overall USD 29,501 million spent by government during the last 5 years. 3.4% of government overall expenditure to double Tanescos electricity generation capacity and thereby avoid 12-18 hours per day blackouts and the collapse of the economy!
Interestingly enough in 2009 the administration had found the resources to finance a USD 1,300 million so-called stimulus package said to have been aimed at the agriculture, tourism, mining exploration, manufacturing and gemstone trade sectors.
I started by stating that JK should not be asked to resign then made an analysis of his and his administrations mistakes and failures, making the case for his removal. However, I still maintain he should not be asked to resign. He should be fired! I understand that forcing him to resign would amount to the same thing. But I do not see any reason for euphemisms, political niceties and allowing him to save face. He messed up big time, so fire him! Drastic problems require drastic measures as the saying goes. Let every current and future politician and senior civil servant learn once and for all: mess up and you will be kicked out in disgrace. I am waiting to see how we Tanzanians will deal with this gross incompetence in high office.
